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Dealing with "Negative Nelly's" regarding Oct 1st cruise plans


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Roy, yes several Governors across both parties set a good example about wearing masks which goes to show us that it doesn’t have to be about politics but unfortunately that is not the case across the board. Too bad. The three W’s do help. Missed opportunity

 

As to masks it reenforces the old adage. 
 

United we stand. Divided we fall.

 

i want to note the CDC did wait until masks were available before recommended it so as not to take away from first responders and they were cautious not wanting the public to think it was going to solve everything. 
 

Keith

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I’m fine with the top national figure not wearing a mask. It’s a 

 national figure constitutional right. I’m also fine with the US populace out masking several other countries. The whole straw man argument that the mask solves everything is comical. Visit my local grocery store the majority are worn improperly. There is no easy fix such as “ hey make everyone wear a mask !”

 

 

I won’t pay to take a cruise to wear a mask.

Edited by Mwgw
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2 hours ago, Mwgw said:

I’m fine with the top national figure not wearing a mask. It’s a 

 national figure constitutional right. I’m also fine with the US populace out masking several other countries. The whole straw man argument that the mask solves everything is comical. Visit my local grocery store the majority are worn improperly. There is no easy fix such as “ hey make everyone wear a mask !”

 

 

I won’t pay to take a cruise to wear a mask.

Well said.  

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6 hours ago, Mwgw said:

I’m fine with the top national figure not wearing a mask. It’s a 

 national figure constitutional right. I’m also fine with the US populace out masking several other countries. The whole straw man argument that the mask solves everything is comical. Visit my local grocery store the majority are worn improperly. There is no easy fix such as “ hey make everyone wear a mask !”

 

 

I won’t pay to take a cruise to wear a mask.

I guess you don't believe the scientists.

 

Once again this was covered in great detail by Dr. Fauci yesterday.  Wear a mask....Social distance....Wash Hands.

 

As to the leader.  If your experts recommend to everyone to wear a mask it is normal for the one in charge to follow suit and set an example.  This would be a norm for leadership in government and in private industry.

 

On another note, my area joins many in my state and thankfully masks will be required inside all commercial buildings starting July 1.  

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One of the interviews with Dr. Fauci was very enlightening. He said the best we could expect from the vaccine is a 70 to 75% effective rate and the idea is between that and those who already had the virus to hopefully minimize its impact in the future.  I believe he said the best we did was with the measles with a 97% effective rate.  I might have the last one wrong but his point is they are never 100% effective.

 

Keith

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I find the pushback against the masks ironic.  The masks are only needed to control the virus BECAUSE we’ve refused to take the measures that most other countries have to control the virus — with lower infection and transmission rates, the masks would be redundant.  If people didn’t want to wear masks, they should have been supportive of controlling the virus in the first place instead of making a joke of the whole thing. 
 

Now, masks are all we’ve got.  Get used to them, they’re coming your way, no matter what BS your governor is saying today about your state’s spiking cases.

 

Keith, well said about the vaccine.  Americans are used to there being a quick fix for everything, and just assume we’ll have some magic shot by the end of the year that takes the whole problem away.  In reality, we’ve never successfully developed a coronavirus vaccine at all to date, for any coronavirus, and the body only produces antibodies for the coronavirus for months, which is challenging if you’re trying to use a flu shot distribution model.

 

There are a LOT of challenges that need to be overcome before a vaccine can be as effective as I think Americans expect.

 

Vince

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The Elephant in the room on all this, re: cruising. How are you going to crew the ships? Where are they coming from? It will not be the US.  So how do they get to the embarkation ports if international borders are closed or restricted , or need quarantine periods. Also will there be the flights especially from countries like the Philippines or Bali or India where many crew are from. Equally the cramped sharing nature of crew accommodation on most cruise ships makes this a problem?

Lots more questions than answers even if passengers wish to cruise?

 

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On ‎6‎/‎23‎/‎2020 at 7:06 PM, Mudhen said:

Candy, you are not alone! We're (hopefully) on that very same Oct1st  B2B! This is not the only place where the nay sayers are lurking....the Regent board is loaded with them, maybe even more so than here. We've got another cruise on the books with Regent on Nov. 6th..Barcelona to Dubai. I think those of us who are booked on anything that comes in the near future must put up with the 
"You'e lost your mind"...sort of response. So like you, we don't discuss it with family, friends, etc. 

Here's hoping that we'll actually get to go and if we don't, we're not looking back!

Linda

How will you board in Barcelona, as Spain has shut to cruising for the foreseeable future. Also you will need to be a strong swimmer to get to Barcelona as most flights are not operating?

 

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9 minutes ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

The Elephant in the room on all this, re: cruising. How are you going to crew the ships? Where are they coming from? It will not be the US.  So how do they get to the embarkation ports if international borders are closed or restricted , or need quarantine periods. Also will there be the flights especially from countries like the Philippines or Bali or India where many crew are from. Equally the cramped sharing nature of crew accommodation on most cruise ships makes this a problem?

Lots more questions than answers even if passengers wish to cruise?

 

Oh I do agree with you GrJ Berkshire you have so many good points ... It's not that we are neg Nelly's( to those who think we are) just being a bit more realistic. I for one would love to be cruising asap having had to cancel our sept venice-athens trip sept I'm so upset 😢 I look forward to returning soon, but I think it's some way away just yet

Nothing negative but just ruling out 2020...

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12 minutes ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

How will you board in Barcelona, as Spain has shut to cruising for the foreseeable future. Also you will need to be a strong swimmer to get to Barcelona as most flights are not operating?

 

I wrote this a week ago while there was actually still hope to get to Europe. Not so much now. Just waiting for the shoe to "officially" drop. At this second in time, I'm pretty sceptical about the Crystal Caribbean trip.....sigh.

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To me, at the moment, there are too many questions that need to be answered before I'd go on a cruise.   I don't want to get stuck on a ship or in some port without the ability to get home or get home quickly (I was "stuck" in Europe on 9/11 totally different circumstances but not knowing when or how getting home was real stress).   Then even when things seem to start up I wouldn't want to be on one of the first few cruises for a line.  As great as Crystal is it took them a couple of cruises before changes like all inclusive were tweaked to make them work well - I'm sure this will be the same.

Do I wear a mask when out - sure do.  Even if it was only 10% of solution to spreading it is worth it.

These are tough times and we need to work together to get things back but that will still take time and effort.

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It took decades with a large scale WHO vaccination program to decrease the incidence of measles, but we still haven’t eliminated it.  I never thought a vaccine will make any meaningful “overnight” difference to the travel industry as a whole.  People need to understand that, a vaccine, even if it is a very effective one, does not eliminate the virus from the population.  It, at best, prevents additional infection to those who are not currently infected.

 

If previous studies to come up with a vaccine for a garden variety coronaviruses is any indication, the chance of a good vaccine against this coronavirus miraculously being created is very low.  And that does not really solve the problem of the next outbreak of an entirely different pathogen.

 

So, actually, whether we like it or not, we are facing the future with a lot of potentially permanent changes.  We just don’t know what these changes are going to be permanent.

Edited by Psoque
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2 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

The Elephant in the room on all this, re: cruising. How are you going to crew the ships? Where are they coming from? It will not be the US.  So how do they get to the embarkation ports if international borders are closed or restricted , or need quarantine periods. Also will there be the flights especially from countries like the Philippines or Bali or India where many crew are from. Equally the cramped sharing nature of crew accommodation on most cruise ships makes this a problem?

Lots more questions than answers even if passengers wish to cruise?

 

This is one of the most perceptive posts I've seen.  If you have to socially distance the passengers, the crew cannot  be "caged" in close quarters.

 

The more I read, the worse it gets.

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:35 AM, bitob said:

This is one of the most perceptive posts I've seen.  If you have to socially distance the passengers, the crew cannot  be "caged" in close quarters.

 

The more I read, the worse it gets.

 

That is the problem.  Even if you distance the passengers and reduce capacity, you cannot reduce crew in their already cramped quarters by the same percent.  One seaman gets sicks and spreads it to everyone down below who then spreads it the waiters and stewards and so on.  The cruise lines need to solve the crew issue before they start issuing passenger COVID protocols.  I do not see any short term solution.

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:35 AM, bitob said:

This is one of the most perceptive posts I've seen.  If you have to socially distance the passengers, the crew cannot  be "caged" in close quarters.

 

The more I read, the worse it gets.

 

Every port call will be an opportunity for someone to bring COVID on board.  What could be more ludicrous than engaging in tourism during a pandemic?

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It seems to me that the only "slightly" safe way to cruise is to

 

have all sea days -- 

test everyone before they board --  you would need a test that gives instantaneous results

 

It is not completely safe because anyone could come in contact with the virus traveling to the cruise and test negative at boarding.

 

Still ludicrous . .

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bitob said:

It seems to me that the only "slightly" safe way to cruise is to

 

have all sea days -- 

test everyone before they board --  you would need a test that gives instantaneous results

 

It is not completely safe because anyone could come in contact with the virus traveling to the cruise and test negative at boarding.

 

Still ludicrous . .

 

 

 

 

Agree!  (but not slightly- very possible)

still sailing on October 29, if ship sails!
 

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14 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Agree!  (but not slightly- very possible)

still sailing on October 29, if ship sails!
 

It's a big IF

I hope you get to go

That means my January cruise might be a go.

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On 6/30/2020 at 9:32 AM, Psoque said:

It took decades with a large scale WHO vaccination program to decrease the incidence of measles, but we still haven’t eliminated it.  I never thought a vaccine will make any meaningful “overnight” difference to the travel industry as a whole.  People need to understand that, a vaccine, even if it is a very effective one, does not eliminate the virus from the population.  It, at best, prevents additional infection to those who are not currently infected.

 

If previous studies to come up with a vaccine for a garden variety coronaviruses is any indication, the chance of a good vaccine against this coronavirus miraculously being created is very low.  And that does not really solve the problem of the next outbreak of an entirely different pathogen.

 

So, actually, whether we like it or not, we are facing the future with a lot of potentially permanent changes.  We just don’t know what these changes are going to be permanent.

You know I have concerns but I am not doom and gloom.

 

I take the advice of Doctor Fauci who I know in terms of his history and his current day thinking.

 

In short, he says a vaccine will likely be developed (I believe him because so many companies are working on this) and as he says it will likely be 70 to 75 percent effective and if most people will take it (yes we need to encourage them) plus taking into account the percent of population who will get the virus we might get things under control.

 

Of course there will be other viruses but you really paint a very negative picture.

 

You do know eventually Earth may get his with an asteroid.

 

The sun might go away.

 

But really I think you are filled with doom and gloom whether or not you realize this and I am not in the camp that the norm is over.

 

In fact, I do not believe it for a second.

 

I really don't.  Obviously you do but I don't.

 

Enough said.

 

Keith

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On 6/30/2020 at 1:13 AM, Keith1010 said:

I guess you don't believe the scientists.

 

Once again this was covered in great detail by Dr. Fauci yesterday.  Wear a mask....Social distance....Wash Hands.

 

As to the leader.  If your experts recommend to everyone to wear a mask it is normal for the one in charge to follow suit and set an example.  This would be a norm for leadership in government and in private industry.

 

On another note, my area joins many in my state and thankfully masks will be required inside all commercial buildings starting July 1.  

Great brief video of Fauci immediately taking his mask off as soon as the hearing ended.  

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------Keith said:

 

"But really I think you are filled with doom and gloom whether or not you realize this and I am not in the camp that the norm is over.

 

In fact, I do not believe it for a second.

 

I really don't.  Obviously you do but I don't.

 

Enough said."

 

 

--Keith , I am of same opinion as yours, and sort of tired of similar statements by "supposedly knowledgeable " people. The reality is that all over the world, huge "truly professional groups with advanced technical support" are diligently working to decipher this virus, and find ways to control it, vaccine or otherwise.  Just because we are in "medical field' does not make us semi-experts in an unknown entity such as this virus. I am amazed(negatively) at the repetitious number of posts by these "semi-experts" on ANY topic that touches on POSSIBLE effects of  the virus. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Keith1010 said:

You know I have concerns but I am not doom and gloom.

 

I take the advice of Doctor Fauci who I know in terms of his history and his current day thinking.

 

In short, he says a vaccine will likely be developed (I believe him because so many companies are working on this) and as he says it will likely be 70 to 75 percent effective and if most people will take it (yes we need to encourage them) plus taking into account the percent of population who will get the virus we might get things under control.

 

Of course there will be other viruses but you really paint a very negative picture.

 

You do know eventually Earth may get his with an asteroid.

 

The sun might go away.

 

But really I think you are filled with doom and gloom whether or not you realize this and I am not in the camp that the norm is over.

 

In fact, I do not believe it for a second.

 

I really don't.  Obviously you do but I don't.

 

Enough said.

 

Keith

I am not making argument re:  hope vs no hope.  I am just a bit disappointed by this assumption by many that a vaccine will change everything overnight:  I hear people say "I will start traveling as soon as the vaccine is available."  Or "everything will be back to normal when the vaccine is made available"  This is total nonsense.

 

Let me repeat this again.  Let's assume that a vaccine will be available on January 1, 2021.  What could this vaccine do?  There are a few possibilities:

 

1.  The vaccine will protect a percentage (hopefully high percentage) of those vaccinated from ever infected by this coronavirus.

 

2.  The vaccine will NOT prevent infections, but may prevent those infected from becoming symptomatic.

 

3.  The vaccine will just make the symptom less severe (not die, etc.) at best.

 

The best case scenario would be just scenario 1 for everyone who is vaccinated.  However, in real-life observations, it would be a combination of all three scenarios (put simply....there are more scenarios than these three).

 

Obviously, we want the first scenario, but all three and few others are possible.

But what I didn't list in the possibilities is the instantaneous eradication of the virus.

 

Looking at actual observations of successful vaccination programs, we know that these programs can reduce the incidence of the illness.  However this process is going to be very gradual.  Most likely, there will be outbreaks of various extents even after this vaccination is widely available, just like what we have been with other newly introduced vaccines.  I believe Dr. Fauci has eluded to what I just said.  The problem with what we hear from Dr. Fauci is that some of the things he wants to say, he is not allowed to say in the most clear manner.  Also I am not sure where Dr. Fauci came up with 70-75% efficacy....I can only imagine that he either pulled that number out of his behind, or he was strongly urged to say this by someone because he had to be upbeat.  My scientific understanding of what has been going on in the current vaccine development and the science behind it, it is absolutely premature to come up with a number at this time.  I think what he is saying is that efficacy as high as 70-75 % has been seen in some non-live viral vaccines.  We know that some "successful vaccines" have even lower efficacy.  Also, we know that there is a herd immunity effect:  Most vaccines are more effective when the vaccination rate is high.   Based on all of this, just saying "about 75 % efficacy is more of a "theoretical ceiling" of the effectiveness of the vaccine.  In real live, the first generation vaccine may end up much less efficacious.

 

I'm not saying that the sky is falling, or that we are all going to die.  I am just saying that a vaccine, even a very good one, will not solve this problem as quickly or as completely as some may think.

 

Also, it is important that we need to be much better prepared for the next outbreak of something different.  Everyone, including the cruise lines needs to think of creative and innovative ways to be better prepared for the immediate future as well as long-term future.  Just saying "we do everything we can to make you safe at sea" is neither correct or helpful. 

 

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