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Dealing with "Negative Nelly's" regarding Oct 1st cruise plans


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1 hour ago, almostretired said:

Great brief video of Fauci immediately taking his mask off as soon as the hearing ended.  

Not sure the point.

 

This virus is out of control in many places.

 

Fauci in my opinion has been honest and not political and that is all I am looking for.

 

Our Governor who was very reluctant to issue an order on masks did so a few minutes ago.

 

Keith

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12 minutes ago, Psoque said:

I am not making argument re:  hope vs no hope.  I am just a bit disappointed by this assumption by many that a vaccine will change everything overnight:  I hear people say "I will start traveling as soon as the vaccine is available."  Or "everything will be back to normal when the vaccine is made available"  This is total nonsense.

 

Let me repeat this again.  Let's assume that a vaccine will be available on January 1, 2021.  What could this vaccine do?  There are a few possibilities:

 

1.  The vaccine will protect a percentage (hopefully high percentage) of those vaccinated from ever infected by this coronavirus.

 

2.  The vaccine will NOT prevent infections, but may prevent those infected from becoming symptomatic.

 

3.  The vaccine will just make the symptom less severe (not die, etc.) at best.

 

The best case scenario would be just scenario 1 for everyone who is vaccinated.  However, in real-life observations, it would be a combination of all three scenarios (put simply....there are more scenarios than these three).

 

Obviously, we want the first scenario, but all three and few others are possible.

But what I didn't list in the possibilities is the instantaneous eradication of the virus.

 

Looking at actual observations of successful vaccination programs, we know that these programs can reduce the incidence of the illness.  However this process is going to be very gradual.  Most likely, there will be outbreaks of various extents even after this vaccination is widely available, just like what we have been with other newly introduced vaccines.  I believe Dr. Fauci has eluded to what I just said.  The problem with what we hear from Dr. Fauci is that some of the things he wants to say, he is not allowed to say in the most clear manner.  Also I am not sure where Dr. Fauci came up with 70-75% efficacy....I can only imagine that he either pulled that number out of his behind, or he was strongly urged to say this by someone because he had to be upbeat.  My scientific understanding of what has been going on in the current vaccine development and the science behind it, it is absolutely premature to come up with a number at this time.  I think what he is saying is that efficacy as high as 70-75 % has been seen in some non-live viral vaccines.  We know that some "successful vaccines" have even lower efficacy.  Also, we know that there is a herd immunity effect:  Most vaccines are more effective when the vaccination rate is high.   Based on all of this, just saying "about 75 % efficacy is more of a "theoretical ceiling" of the effectiveness of the vaccine.  In real live, the first generation vaccine may end up much less efficacious.

 

I'm not saying that the sky is falling, or that we are all going to die.  I am just saying that a vaccine, even a very good one, will not solve this problem as quickly or as completely as some may think.

 

Also, it is important that we need to be much better prepared for the next outbreak of something different.  Everyone, including the cruise lines needs to think of creative and innovative ways to be better prepared for the immediate future as well as long-term future.  Just saying "we do everything we can to make you safe at sea" is neither correct or helpful. 

 

I for one didn't say the vaccine would change things overnight.

 

I don't expect everyone will get it January 1.  Can't happen.

 

Dr Fauci says it may have a success rate of 70 to 75 percent.

 

My point is there have always been viruses and other issues but it didn't prevent us from getting back to norms.


Your post that I responded to seemed to say things will never be the same because another virus will hit.

 

I don't accept that things will never be the same or at least not close to the same.

 

Yes there will be viruses. There will be droughts.  There will be hurricanes.  There will be earthquakes.  There will be famine.  There will be wars.  This is the history of the world.  But there will also be good times and maybe times not as good.

 

We will move on.

 

I agree we need to be better prepared.  Easier said than done but hopefully we and the rest of the world will learn much from this which will help us in the future.

 

I do believe better time are ahead.

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, almostretired said:

Great brief video of Fauci immediately taking his mask off as soon as the hearing ended.  

 

I think that's by design -- that's actually consistent with my company's new office policies.  Even if you're properly socially distanced at your desk, you're supposed to put your mask back on if you're going to be speaking loudly or presenting in order to catch the droplets.  You can take it back off, as long as people aren't any closer than their own desks when you're done. 

 

We're realizing that being 6' apart helps, but isn't enough -- we need a barrier too.

 

Vince

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4 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

I for one didn't say the vaccine would change things overnight.

 

I don't expect everyone will get it January 1.  Can't happen.

 

Dr Fauci says it may have a success rate of 70 to 75 percent.

 

My point is there have always been viruses and other issues but it didn't prevent us from getting back to norms.


Your post that I responded to seemed to say things will never be the same because another virus will hit.

 

I don't accept that things will never be the same or at least not close to the same.

 

Yes there will be viruses. There will be droughts.  There will be hurricanes.  There will be earthquakes.  There will be famine.  There will be wars.  This is the history of the world.  But there will also be good times and maybe times not as good.

 

We will move on.

 

I agree we need to be better prepared.  Easier said than done but hopefully we and the rest of the world will learn much from this which will help us in the future.

 

I do believe better time are ahead.

 

Keith

Things are different now already, and things will be different.  Whether we like it or not.  Is the future going to be better?  I certainly hope so.  But I am convinced that, if we want to survive the next outbreak (by the way,  the chance of an another outbreak of some kind is much higher than that of the earth being obliterated by an asteroid...which is a good thing) we need to make some permanent changes to how we do everything.

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3 minutes ago, Psoque said:

Things are different now already, and things will be different.  Whether we like it or not.  Is the future going to be better?  I certainly hope so.  But I am convinced that, if we want to survive the next outbreak (by the way,  the chance of an another outbreak of some kind is much higher than that of the earth being obliterated by an asteroid...which is a good thing) we need to make some permanent changes to how we do everything.

 I am sure we will make some adjustments.

 

New technology will allow for improved cleaning of facilities.  People will change some habits at least in the short term.  Some of what people will d my wife and I have done for three to four years.


Yep the chance of an outbreak is greater than the asteroid but less than some other catastrophic things.  I just want to provide balance and don't believe it is all doom and gloom.

 

In fact, new science and technology will be a big help and I see a lot of it being developed right now for hotels, and restaurants and for cruise ships.

 

Keith

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23 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Not sure the point.

 

This virus is out of control in many places.

 

Fauci in my opinion has been honest and not political and that is all I am looking for.

 

Our Governor who was very reluctant to issue an order on masks did so a few minutes ago.

 

Keith

Agree.  The are many posts that have little or no point.

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13 minutes ago, BWIVince said:

 

I think that's by design -- that's actually consistent with my company's new office policies.  Even if you're properly socially distanced at your desk, you're supposed to put your mask back on if you're going to be speaking loudly or presenting in order to catch the droplets.  You can take it back off, as long as people aren't any closer than their own desks when you're done. 

 

We're realizing that being 6' apart helps, but isn't enough -- we need a barrier too.

 

Vince

You may be correct but Fauci was more like 20 feet away from anyone.  

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Just now, almostretired said:

You may be correct but Fauci was more like 20 feet away from anyone.  


My seat at my office-style cube is more than 20 feet from anyone too.  I think the point now is to catch the droplets when you’re projecting like that — the distance component is now separate (but not unimportant).

 

Vince

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A hopeful note on attempts to engineer ways to live with the virus.....I just read an article in The Houston Chronicle about a group of researchers at the  University of Houston in The Texas Center for Superconductivity who have developed a new HVAC filter designed to “catch and kill” COVID virus particles. Their results are reported in the peer-reviewed science journal Materials Today Physics. They have financial backing to start production and next step is to find manufacturers to produce them in volume,with the goal to provide the filters at a reasonable cost for schools, hospitals and other facilities and businesses. They anticipate that the filters will cost considerable less than currently used UV technology.

They are also working on a battery powered version that “purify” the area around a worker’s immediate work space.  
 

On a less hopeful note, I recently participated in a virtual presentation and Q & A with Dr Peter Hotez, the Houston based physician and vaccine expert and developer. He has an impressive background in successful vaccine development and his research group is one that is working on a COVID19 vaccine. He cautioned that even though there is likely to be one or more vaccines soon, “first” vaccines have a track record of not being very effective. And a number of researchers are using newly developed methods which have never been tested, so carry more uncertainty. Also once there is an effective vaccine, getting it into production globally is another major step, as well as convincing a sufficient number of people to be vaccinated. Without national, and hopefully global spread of the vaccine, we will not be able to sufficiently control the virus.

 

So science can eventually get us to a better place, but we still need to be patient. The virus doesn’t care that we are tired of this and are ready to travel again. In Texas we are now experiencing what happens when you try to rush things and ignore science and data. 
 

 

 

 

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Every day the news gets worse.  I am a half-full kind of person.  I no longer have much hope that my January cruise will be a go.  We have taken 10 steps backwards in fighting Covid-19.

 

I would love someone to convince me that cruising in January is remotely possible.

 

I just do not see it happening.

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Glass half full kind of girl as well...  Not saying your a girl lol..But I don't think people are negative perhaps more realistic at least for 2020... Maybe  still early 2021 the cruise lines have a lot of working out logistics ie ports . Staff .. safety.. we in the UK have just been updated with no cruise policy so our travel insurance etc will be  nil & void ...  I'm not sure where you are  from  bitob but  I think it's still further away then we think..hope I'm wrong ..my next cruise is Oct 2021 fingers crossed ... That's hope someone can give you some positivity...

 

 

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Apparently, being realistic and factual means we are being Negative Nellys.

I will be happy to have people tell me “I told you so” if the Crystal Cruises scheduled for Oct 1 and others for October sail.  IMHO the No Sail order will be extended until Nov 1.

 

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Ouch...was that coment for me???? Ok so I told you so...is that better 😉 no harm meant were all on the same side .. we all would luv to be cruising anytime soon that's why we're on cruise critic ... 🙏

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32 minutes ago, Lvshack said:

Ouch...was that coment for me???? Ok so I told you so...is that better 😉 no harm meant were all on the same side .. we all would luv to be cruising anytime soon that's why we're on cruise critic ... 🙏


Not at all.  Yes, we all want cruises to begin and we all want to travel internationally again.  I just don’t think it will happen as soon as people think it will.  BTW, I use to live in the UK and Bath is one of my favourite places to visit.  Lovely area.

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Must have misunderstood your comments..not hard to do as I'm going stir crazy...

Not sure where your from but nice to hear you have bath on one of your top list, yes it's a beautiful part of the world and feel very blessed although at the moment not been into town since lockdown in march, were only just starting to lift pub& restaurant lockdown...

Here's to cruising very soon 🚢

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, tipsygirl said:

.....He cautioned that even though there is likely to be one or more vaccines soon, “first” vaccines have a track record of not being very effective. And a number of researchers are using newly developed methods which have never been tested, so carry more uncertainty. Also once there is an effective vaccine, getting it into production globally is another major step, as well as convincing a sufficient number of people to be vaccinated. Without national, and hopefully global spread of the vaccine, we will not be able to sufficiently control the virus.

 

So science can eventually get us to a better place, but we still need to be patient. The virus doesn’t care that we are tired of this and are ready to travel again.

 

 

 

Beyond effectiveness there is also the very real "elephant in the room". How do you produce enough to vaccinate "the world", and who decides who gets it first! Obviously front line medical workers and first responders should be at or near the top, but who decides who is next? For those who say they won't cruise until after there is a vaccine, one thing I am pretty sure of is that "people wanting to go on a cruise again" are going to be pretty far down that list! I think the better hope for the world, and those wanting to be able to cruise again, will be the discovery of therapeutics/drugs that will actually control the virus once it is contracted.

 

Even if they found a 100% effective vaccine tomorrow, COVID is going to be with us for a long time. Look how long it took vaccines to effectively eliminate diseases like polio and diptheria!

Edited by Roland4
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3 hours ago, bitob said:

Every day the news gets worse.  I am a half-full kind of person.  I no longer have much hope that my January cruise will be a go.  We have taken 10 steps backwards in fighting Covid-19.

 

I would love someone to convince me that cruising in January is remotely possible.

 

I just do not see it happening.

To be honest, I rarely watch TV. I would rather watch some independent news reports from youtubers than turn on TV. The only thing I use my TV for are video games and some netflix. Dont waste your time listening to paid news and corrupt journalists. Get the information from the internet. Its like the only space left where truth can be found 

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On 7/2/2020 at 7:00 PM, BWIVince said:


My seat at my office-style cube is more than 20 feet from anyone too.  I think the point now is to catch the droplets when you’re projecting like that — the distance component is now separate (but not unimportant).

 

Vince

We all know the truth even if it is different for everyone.  But it becomes difficult to justify the truth once we try to explain it.   If the point is explained as above (not to pick on Vince but to use as an example) then why do some of the experts say  you are not using your face mask properly if they can see your nose.  Presuming you cover your nose when you sneeze and do not speak through your nose (which is the overwhelming norm) under the above logic then need to cover your nose would be very minimal not critical as some of the experts say. 

 

If we look closer at what not just us with our uneducated opinions but scientists and infectious disease experts are saying we find lapses in their logic.  This is the reason why so many are taking different takes on the virus and how it should be handled.

 

Some say listen to the scientists.  How dare you question or challenge the experts.  But their mantra often comes as though they have substituted the scientists and doctors to take the place of the shamans, priests and witchdoctors of more primitive times.  It takes the burden of thinking for yourself away.    Religion is based upon faith and perhaps human psyches  exist on faith as much as anything else.    Perhaps reliance (faith) in proclaimed experts, even when they are no closer to knowing the truth  than we are,  is what we do  to exist in a more secular world with its secular religion.

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4 minutes ago, Wonderingabout said:

Some say listen to the scientists.  How dare you question or challenge the experts.  But their mantra often comes as though they have substituted the scientists and doctors to take the place of the shamans, priests and witchdoctors of more primitive times.  It takes the burden of thinking for yourself away.    Religion is based upon faith and perhaps human psyches  exist on faith as much as anything else.    Perhaps reliance (faith) in proclaimed experts, even when they are no closer to knowing the truth  than we are,  is what we do  to exist in a more secular world with its secular religion.

 

Perhaps this will help clarify things for you:

 

In Memoriam: Healthcare Workers Who Have Died of COVID-19

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1 minute ago, Wonderingabout said:

We all know the truth even if it is different for everyone.  But it becomes difficult to justify the truth once we try to explain it.   If the point is explained as above (not to pick on Vince but to use as an example) then why do some of the experts say  you are not using your face mask properly if they can see your nose.  Presuming you cover your nose when you sneeze and do not speak through your nose (which is the overwhelming norm) under the above logic then need to cover your nose would be very minimal not critical as some of the experts say. 

 

If we look closer at what not just us with our uneducated opinions but scientists and infectious disease experts are saying we find lapses in their logic.  This is the reason why so many are taking different takes on the virus and how it should be handled.

 

Some say listen to the scientists.  How dare you question or challenge the experts.  But their mantra often comes as though they have substituted the scientists and doctors to take the place of the shamans, priests and witchdoctors of more primitive times.  It takes the burden of thinking for yourself away.    Religion is based upon faith and perhaps human psyches  exist on faith as much as anything else.    Perhaps reliance (faith) in proclaimed experts, even when they are no closer to knowing the truth  than we are,  is what we do  to exist in a more secular world with its secular religion.

 

Wait, who is saying you shouldn't cover your nose?  In my example a mask covers droplets from both your nose AND mouth.  It doesn't cover a percentage of aerosolized particles, which everyone in my company knows is being a risk even if we're alone at our desks, but at least we're catching the heavier droplets which is a good start.  Of course we all know the aerosolized particles are an area of concern that we don't have enough data on, but at least we're covering a broad spectrum of the risks with a properly worn mask covering your nose to chin.

 

Vince

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, BWIVince said:

 

Wait, who is saying you shouldn't cover your nose?  In my example a mask covers droplets from both your nose AND mouth.  It doesn't cover a percentage of aerosolized particles, which everyone in my company knows is being a risk even if we're alone at our desks, but at least we're catching the heavier droplets which is a good start.  Of course we all know the aerosolized particles are an area of concern that we don't have enough data on, but at least we're covering a broad spectrum of the risks with a properly worn mask covering your nose to chin.

 

Vince

 

And by all accounts so far, and admittedly the "science" keeps changing, the main points of infection are the nose, mouth and in some cases the eyes. This is why. before the "great mask debate", the mantra was Physical Distance, Wash Hands Often and Don't Touch Your Face!!! A properly worn mask must cover from nose to under the chin.

 

Edited by Roland4
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Posted (edited)

So, if you remove the mask to sneeze into a tissue or handkerchief, it’s possible droplets will  be released into the air. How else can you sneeze?
What can you do about that?

Edited by Bellaggio Cruisers
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48 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

Dont waste your time listening to paid news and corrupt journalists. Get the information from the internet. Its like the only space left where truth can be found 


I didn’t see a smiley face in your post but hopefully you’re not serious. Sure, there is truth on the internet but often it’s a needle In the haystack/pixel-stack. And more corruption on the internet than in journalism. 

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45 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

So, if you remove the mask to sneeze into a tissue or handkerchief, it’s possible droplets will  be released into the air. How else can you sneeze?
What can you do about that?

Presumably the meaning was to pull the mask up to its proper position before sneezing.  I am definitely an advocate of wearing the mask properly even when not sneezing, to cover both nose and mouth. 

 

However, I guess that covering the mouth only is better than refusing to wear a mask altogether, and there are too many in that category even now that our governor has said everyone is "required" to wear a mask in public (with no enforcement).  The last time I went to the grocery story, they had a young man disinfecting the carts, and he did not have a mask on!!!

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