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US Citizen - keep an eye on Schengen/EU potential of denying entry due to COVID failuresI


slidergirl
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Taking it back to borders closing and loss of international tourism , this will have an existential affect on the cruise industry and indeed airlines, many will not survive this?

Boeing is already in trouble following the 737max issues, who is going to buy new planes in this economic climate?

I can see many cruise ships going to the breakers yards, especially the mega 4000/ 5000 passenger ships.

Equally with reduced flights globally getting crew to the ships will be challenging, few are from developed western countries.

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

Not quite - it is more like about 40 million Americans travelled outside the US - places like Asia, Latin America, Canada, Caribbean, etc. as well as Europe. Perhaps 17 million to Europe.

 

I had another look and it seems I did mis read the stats:

 

Record 93 Million U.S. Citizens Traveled Outside the Country in 2018

 

Either way it still stands Europe is not dependant on Americans for tourism. 

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5 hours ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

 

I can see many cruise ships going to the breakers yards, especially the mega 4000/ 5000 passenger ships.

 

Moth-balling, yes.

But the breakers' yards?

Upkeep is pricey, but scrapping super-expensive ships is much more costly.

And if (perhaps that should read "when") a cruise line goes belly-up, there'll be buyers - at knock-down prices perhaps, but way above scrap value.

Mebbe for some different purpose. Floating hotels, fixed or transient. Accommodation for universities, big building projects, trade fairs & such. Or even conversion of the hull and the oily bits for some type of commercial vessel.

Lots of options ahead of the cutting torch.

Queen Mary - currently in financial troubles solely because of the upkeep due to her age -  has been kept in service for decades after she tied-up for the last time. Ditto - after years of squabbling - QE11.

 

JMHO as always.

 

JB :classic_smile:

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10 hours ago, ldubs said:

I just read that of 4 million people taking a cruise in the Mediterranean, 700,000 were North Americans.  I think that was for 2018.   I would have thought North Americans would be a higher percentage.   

When you consider that many millions of Europeans actually live in, or very close to, the port cities from which Mediterranean cruises sail,  I think it is surprising that as much as one sixth of Mediterranean cruise passengers fly the 3,000 to 6,000 miles to get to the ports.

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56 minutes ago, John Bull said:

 

Moth-balling, yes.

But the breakers' yards?

Upkeep is pricey, but scrapping super-expensive ships is much more costly.

And if (perhaps that should read "when") a cruise line goes belly-up, there'll be buyers - at knock-down prices perhaps, but way above scrap value.

Mebbe for some different purpose. Floating hotels, fixed or transient. Accommodation for universities, big building projects, trade fairs & such. Or even conversion of the hull and the oily bits for some type of commercial vessel.

Lots of options ahead of the cutting torch.

Queen Mary - currently in financial troubles solely because of the upkeep due to her age -  has been kept in service for decades after she tied-up for the last time. Ditto - after years of squabbling - QE11.

 

JMHO as always.

 

JB :classic_smile:

 

JB - It will certainly be very interesting to see how this scenario plays out, especially when adding the over 100 new ships on the order books in the next 7 years. Personally, I envisage many of these contracts being cancelled, especially those that are options.

 

While Queen Mary is one of the success stories of converting cruise ships, there are many that may not have the same name recognition and weren't so successful. One of my favourite ships was SS Oriana and she moved around the far East for a few years before being finally scrapped in China. With new norm of reduced travel, both business and holidays, I foresee an abundance of hotel rooms, which may negate the demand of re-purposing cruise ships to floating hotels.

 

Scrapping is an option, but prices vary with supply and demand of the entire shipping industry. Last article I read on scrapping is that demolition numbers, so far this year, are down, so prices are improving in some markets. However, I would expect the older tonnage to head to breakers yards, rather than the new mega ships. Older ships are more costlier to operate and the larger ships have economy of scale, in addition to improved efficiency and reduced operating costs.

 

At present, most of the older tonnage of mainstream lines is purchased by the 2nd hand tonnage Lines - CMV, Fred Olsen, etc. However, in the current climate, I read that CMV is in difficulty and is trying to raise new capital. I would expect most of these companies are trying to survive, rather than having spare capital to purchase new "used" tonnage, even at prices barely above scrap value. With the current uncertainty in the industry, I just can't envisage any new players wanting to enter the industry, even at rock bottom prices.

 

Carnival has started the ball rolling, advising it plans to sell 6 ships, time will tell if anyone purchases them, or they head to breakers yards. My best guess is they are negotiating with the breakers yards. However, time will tell, as while other areas of the marine industry have experienced these downturns, this is the worst for the pax sector.

 

 

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22 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I don't know what the demographics of tourists were in 2003 but that was a, long time ago, nearly two decades, a lot might have changed. Maybe back then they had less British and mainland Europeans visiting. 2018 USA visitors came in number 5 of visiting nationalities that to me doesn't signal dependant unless your business only caters to Americans. Americans are known to be spenders but they are also known not to travel much beyond the big ticket sights which means they are not spreading the tourist dollar around the country and are probably in places that have enough tourists already. Since you like anecdotal evidence my experience driving around France is you don't find Americans beyond the typical tour routes. Outside of those routes most tourists we encountered were other French, Germans, British and sometimes Spanish especially around the Pyrenees. The amount of times I encountered American tourists I could count on one hand. Though we did meet an American expat who gave us a wonderful tour of a village church😉

 

Ask any business if they are happy with a loss of 10 - 20% of they gross business.

 

Considering that many small businesses run on a less than 10% profit margin, it is NOT a good thing.

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14 minutes ago, SRF said:

Ask any business if they are happy with a loss of 10 - 20% of they gross business.

 

Considering that many small businesses run on a less than 10% profit margin, it is NOT a good thing.

 

But we are not talking about one business. We are talking about all of Europe. To one business it would be less than 10%. It might equate to one lost customer for a hotel out of the thousands of hotels that operate all over Europe. If a business can't survive one lost customer they probably should have stopped operating a long time ago😂.

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17 minutes ago, SRF said:

 

Ask any business if they are happy with a loss of 10 - 20% of they gross business.

 

Considering that many small businesses run on a less than 10% profit margin, it is NOT a good thing.

But they have to calculate what they'll lose if people from the US and other places come in a cause a surge in cases and they have to shut down again.

 

And, btw, it has been announced.

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5 hours ago, calliopecruiser said:

Hotels as well - I think hotels most of all, who were already having difficulty with the AirBnB type offerings. 

 

AirBnB is going thru a shake up, not sure about other people, but I trust my big name hotel brands far more than AirBnB for more systematic and comprehensive cleaning.

 

Both will go thru huge shakeup and change with this sad pandamic

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9 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

I had another look and it seems I did mis read the stats:

 

Record 93 Million U.S. Citizens Traveled Outside the Country in 2018

 

Either way it still stands Europe is not dependant on Americans for tourism. 

 

Yup the Chinese are the bigger spenders, but don't discount that in this time the US/Chinese are likely the bigger spenders.  Having a bunch of local Europeans travel around isn't going to be spending as much as ones that come far and wide.

 

 

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21 hours ago, calliopecruiser said:

Excellent, because I thought yours was political too.

 

Oh boy, you are right.   All that bickering over the initial travel bans was just that.  I don't know what to say, other than "Oops"!  

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On 6/30/2020 at 11:45 AM, ilikeanswers said:

 

But we are not talking about one business. We are talking about all of Europe. To one business it would be less than 10%. It might equate to one lost customer for a hotel out of the thousands of hotels that operate all over Europe. If a business can't survive one lost customer they probably should have stopped operating a long time ago😂.

 

10% is 10%.

 

10% of all tourism is 10% of each providers business.

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5 hours ago, SRF said:

10% is 10%.

 

10% of all tourism is 10% of each providers business.

 

But that is assuming even distribution. The Americans that visit Europe are not going to patronise every business in Europe. The times I have driven around Europe it is obvious that tourism in certain places do not cater to any English speakers at all. Clearly Americans is less than 10% of their business so they will not even notice the lack of Americans in their countries. There was an article on this site about European river cruises. Yes there are some cruise companies who have up to a whopping 80% American customer demographic so it will hurt them badly but a significant number of European river cruise lines have very few American passengers so it will hardly effect them. Just because it is 10% country wide doesn't mean it is 10% for every business. 

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15 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

But that is assuming even distribution. The Americans that visit Europe are not going to patronise every business in Europe. The times I have driven around Europe it is obvious that tourism in certain places do not cater to any English speakers at all. Clearly Americans is less than 10% of their business so they will not even notice the lack of Americans in their countries. There was an article on this site about European river cruises. Yes there are some cruise companies who have up to a whopping 80% American customer demographic so it will hurt them badly but a significant number of European river cruise lines have very few American passengers so it will hardly effect them. Just because it is 10% country wide doesn't mean it is 10% for every business. 

 

No, but you said:  

 

But we are not talking about one business. We are talking about all of Europe. To one business it would be less than 10%. It might equate to one lost customer for a hotel out of the thousands of hotels that operate all over Europe. If a business can't survive one lost customer they probably should have stopped operating a long time ago

 

Yes, to one business it will be less than 10%, but to another business, it will be MORE than 10%.  The AVERAGE will be 10% across ALL businesses. 

 

So places will lose 50% of their business and others will lose 1%.

 

Happy???

 

So you lose 50% of your business and see how it goes.

 

And don't forget, businesses are interlinked.  A hotel goes under, that causes less business for food suppliers.  Workers are out of work, and cannot patronize other businesses.

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5 minutes ago, SRF said:

Yes, to one business it will be less than 10%, but to another business, it will be MORE than 10%.  The AVERAGE will be 10% across ALL businesses. 

 

Sorry I just don't understand what you are trying to say. For one thing 10% of people doesn't equate to 10% spending. Some will go luxury and some will go bargain basement. So I can't see how all businesses will lose 10% when there is so much variability in patronage and spending amounts.

 

5 minutes ago, SRF said:

So places will lose 50% of their business and others will lose 1%.

 

Happy???

 

So you lose 50% of your business and see how it goes.

 

And don't forget, businesses are interlinked.  A hotel goes under, that causes less business for food suppliers.  Workers are out of work, and cannot patronize other businesses.

 

Again I am a bit lost at what you are trying to say. Businesses go under all the time you can't protect them from everything. My point has always been that the majority of European businesses will survive without American tourists because most of European tourism is not dependant on Americans. Cruise lines that cater to mostly Americans might not make it but they are a tiny portion of the European travel industry, it is not going to bring about the collapse of the entire European travel industry. Things will adapt, things will be replaced and life moves on🤗.

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On 7/5/2020 at 11:56 AM, ilikeanswers said:

 

Sorry I just don't understand what you are trying to say. For one thing 10% of people doesn't equate to 10% spending. Some will go luxury and some will go bargain basement. So I can't see how all businesses will lose 10% when there is so much variability in patronage and spending amounts.

 

 

Again I am a bit lost at what you are trying to say. Businesses go under all the time you can't protect them from everything. My point has always been that the majority of European businesses will survive without American tourists because most of European tourism is not dependant on Americans. Cruise lines that cater to mostly Americans might not make it but they are a tiny portion of the European travel industry, it is not going to bring about the collapse of the entire European travel industry. Things will adapt, things will be replaced and life moves on🤗.

 

If you lose 10% of the people, they will not all be low spenders or high spenders. So the AVERAGE would to be lose 10% of your revenue.

 

And while not every business will lose 10% of their customers or revenue, on AVERAGE, all the businesses combined will lose 10% of their customers and revenue.

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Well, Air France cancelled our Montreal/Paris flight so it looks like we won't be traveling (other than locally) until sometime next year. They will give us vouchers to use before 12/2021.

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47 minutes ago, sparks1093 said:

Well, Air France cancelled our Montreal/Paris flight so it looks like we won't be traveling (other than locally) until sometime next year. They will give us vouchers to use before 12/2021.

You weren't entitled to a refund...why not ?

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4 hours ago, SRF said:

 

If you lose 10% of the people, they will not all be low spenders or high spenders. So the AVERAGE would to be lose 10% of your revenue.

 

And while not every business will lose 10% of their customers or revenue, on AVERAGE, all the businesses combined will lose 10% of their customers and revenue.

 

While they may lose 10% of their traditional customer bases, I have no doubt they will recoup a significant amount of the loss from additional locals travelling.

 

This is our experience in BC. With the border closed, we are currently sitting in our Victoria condo, which other years was filled with Americans. Rather than the parking lot being mostly WA & OR plates, it is now full of BC plates. Same with Whistler, as we are picking up days, as cancellations are made due to border closure.

 

Checking the St Andrews Old Course, which receives numerous US golfers, the border closure has not impacted bookings, as it is still full. I have no doubt many venues will be similar to the Old Course.

 

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5 hours ago, SRF said:

If you lose 10% of the people, they will not all be low spenders or high spenders. So the AVERAGE would to be lose 10% of your revenue.

 

And while not every business will lose 10% of their customers or revenue, on AVERAGE, all the businesses combined will lose 10% of their customers and revenue.

 

OK I see where you are coming from now. Maybe you are right about the broad stroke average but in my experience those national figures do not match on the ground reality because of the variability between businesses. Try arguing to a hotelier that caters to Germans that they have lost 10% of their business. They would think you are mad😜 whereas the cruise line that caters to 80% Americans would be thinking 10% I wish 🙄. These figures are great news bites but I think in the end they usually don't reflect reality. Let's wait and see what the reports are from European businesses as to how well tourism is doing😉

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