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Carnival cut to junk rating at S&P


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I admit to not being a business expert, but at this point in time, I dont think that Carnival Corp is alone in this situation. Other cruise lines, major hotel chains and restaurant chains, airlines, so many business are facing a huge loss these days, and may mean great changes to whether they remain solvent or not, or have to regroup and whatever to stay in a position to reopen operations when it is feasible.  JMHO. 

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If it dips low enough again, I may buy.  I just sold some Carnival stock on Monday in anticipation of a probable plunge and came out around $4,200 ahead.  I watch it daily and will wait and see what happens. I'm kicking myself for only buying 50 shares of Royal at the low 20s.  I was hesitant.  You snooze, you lose.  But I was more aggressive with airline stocks and that is paying off.  Carnival and Royal, along with the airlines, are still on my radar.  Every day, I have multiple tabs open with the travel stocks.  I figure that as long as I diversify, I am good.

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57 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

If it dips low enough again, I may buy.  I just sold some Carnival stock on Monday in anticipation of a probable plunge and came out around $4,200 ahead.  I watch it daily and will wait and see what happens. I'm kicking myself for only buying 50 shares of Royal at the low 20s.  I was hesitant.  You snooze, you lose.  But I was more aggressive with airline stocks and that is paying off.  Carnival and Royal, along with the airlines, are still on my radar.  Every day, I have multiple tabs open with the travel stocks.  I figure that as long as I diversify, I am good.

 

why do people play with loser hoping to catch a dead cat bounce, when you can buy Apple, Microsoft, and ones where macro-economics and fundamentals all all tailwinds?  

 

I don't think there are too man "rich" people on CCL or RCL, but lots of them for those other companies, LOL

 

 

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Edited by chipmaster
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28 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

why do people play with loser hoping to catch a dead cat bounce, when you can buy Apple, Microsoft, and ones where macro-economics and fundamentals all all tailwinds?  

 

 

The rich sometimes play the Black Swan game, but there are much more attractive stocks for that play.

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why do people play with loser hoping to catch a dead cat bounce, when you can buy Apple, Microsoft, and ones where macro-economics and fundamentals all all tailwinds?  

 

I don't think there are too man "rich" people on CCL or RCL, but lots of them for those other companies, LOL

Thanks that's very interesting.

which is the website to see the charts?

 

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12 hours ago, SMSACE6 said:

I admit to not being a business expert, but at this point in time, I dont think that Carnival Corp is alone in this situation. Other cruise lines, major hotel chains and restaurant chains, airlines, so many business are facing a huge loss these days, and may mean great changes to whether they remain solvent or not, or have to regroup and whatever to stay in a position to reopen operations when it is feasible.  JMHO. 

I looked at RCL this morning: $54. Carnival? Uh, no thank you. I have my hundred shares, but I won't be buying more.

 

ETA: I'm moving my 401K from my old employer to a brokerage firm. He asked if I had individual stocks I wanted to move to him as well. I told him I did, but he's not allowed to be judge-y about it. I can only imagine what he'll think when he sees the Carnival stock. lol

 

I'm proud to say I own BRK. No, not that one! lol

 

Edited by fyree39
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This is not a big surprise.  Carnival has enough liquidity to last a year.  If they are able to restart operations by the end of this year, Carnival should be able to survive this crisis.  If they announce a vaccine in 2021, Carnival will be on it's way again to dominate the cruising industry.

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2 hours ago, travelhound said:

This is not a big surprise.  Carnival has enough liquidity to last a year.  If they are able to restart operations by the end of this year, Carnival should be able to survive this crisis.  If they announce a vaccine in 2021, Carnival will be on it's way again to dominate the cruising industry.

 

Since Carnival caters to 1st time cruisers, I doubt that there will be enough of them willing to take a chance with their precious health and vacation time by booking a cruise.  Since cruising is totally voluntary, the industry will suffer getting back on its feet.  There aren't enough cruising fanatics to sustain a long recovery.

 

When cruising does start again, I think many countries will refuse to port ships leaving from American ports.  We are leading the world in COVID cases and not welcome in many countries.

 

Perhaps Carnival will dominate the industry, but maybe with only 6 ships.

Edited by evandbob
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Why would anyone expect any of the cruise industry companies stock to go up while they have zero income? This is perfectly normal. 

 

They will go up when they are able to resume cruising with income. 

 

These days are good for buying, not selling. 

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1 hour ago, evandbob said:

 

Since Carnival caters to 1st time cruisers, I doubt that there will be enough of them willing to take a chance with their precious health and vacation time by booking a cruise.  Since cruising is totally voluntary, the industry will suffer getting back on its feet.  There aren't enough cruising fanatics to sustain a long recovery.

 

When cruising does start again, I think many countries will refuse to port ships leaving from American ports.  We are leading the world in COVID cases and not welcome in many countries.

 

Perhaps Carnival will dominate the industry, but maybe with only 6 ships.

 

Young people hitting the bars and not social distancing are the breeding grounds for the virus these days. Of course a booze cruise would interest them.

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32 minutes ago, Radiioman46 said:

Why would anyone expect any of the cruise industry companies stock to go up while they have zero income? This is perfectly normal. 

 

They will go up when they are able to resume cruising with income. 

 

These days are good for buying, not selling. 

 

Most, maybe all, will survive, but I expect them to be seriously downsized and paying off massive debt that is accruing will take years.

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Just now, BlerkOne said:

 

Most, maybe all, will survive, but I expect them to be seriously downsized and paying off massive debt that is accruing will take years.

Well, if they increase their financial health by whatever means, that should help their stock. 

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1 hour ago, Radiioman46 said:

Well, if they increase their financial health by whatever means, that should help their stock. 

 

I think they will, but don't really see a reason to hold more than the minimum for shareholder OBC.

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I sincerely hope that they can raise fresh borrowings at reasonable interest rates, to keep them afloat until they start getting fresh money from new bookings.

 

A downgrade by three levels from triple b minus to double b minus also means that interest rates on new borrowings will go up significantly, maybe even 12 to 15% per annum

 

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 Shareholders of the Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) are eligible for up to $250 onboard credit (OBC) if they own at least 100 shares of Carnival stock. ... Only one onboard credit per shareholder-occupied stateroom.

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We are long term holders of CCL stock and are not currently buying nor are we selling.  Bookings for Q-4 of this year and 2021 are very strong--which bodes well for the stock.  Remains to be seen what happens when cruising starts again in October (hopefully).

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