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When I heard Dr Fauci lecture in the early days of the HIV/AIDs epidemic it was likely the first time I heard the expression, "we don't know what we don't know."  And I think that is the story of COVID-19.  The so-called experts have been all over the place when it comes to how this virus is spread and the risk factors attached to certain activities.  I have posted it before and will do it again.  In the past 4 months we have heard "experts" tell us this virus was low risk for the USA, masks were dangerous, masks were good, masks are necessary, cleaning packages is necessary, cleaning packages is not necessary, the virus can easily spread from surface contact, spread from surface contact is very rare, a temperature is a good screening tool, taking temperature is not a good screening tool, testing works, some testing has a high false negative rate, etc etc.

 

Just on these boards we see all the posts about buffets and their danger and yet a careful search will not turn up a single known case where somebody got COVID-19 from a buffet!  We have heard the talk about COVID-19 being spread through A/C/HVAC systems but I cannot find any verified cases where that has been proven.  

 

So, after about 6 months of COVID-19 we still seem to know very little, but sure have lots of speculation.   After Billions of dollars of research the "experts" can only now agree on Social Distancing and some type of mask (they type is debatable).   The truth is that anyone who has worked with any respiratory virus could have told you back in January that social distancing and masks are a good thing!   So where are we today?  About the same place we were on New Years Eve :(.

 

And finally, lets give out a big goose egg to the so-called "experts" who ignored the most obvious thing of all.  We knew in January that COVID-19 was a great risk to the elderly, especially in nursing homes.  This became very obvious with the first cluster in Washington.  And yet, our "experts" and "trusted politicians" chose to generally ignore this fact in favor of lots of speculation (much of it wrong).  Meanwhile, they fostered the death of huge numbers of folks in Nursing homes and Personal Care facilities.  Even an amateur, in early February, would have seen that locking down those facilities made lots of sense.  But no, the "experts" told us to disinfect our packages and mail while they did little to protect those vulnerable folks in nursing homes.  Here in Pennsylvania our Secretary of Health smartly moved her own mother out of a nursing home into a hotel room....but did little to protect the other folks in our nearly 600 facilities.  In NY and a few other States are "beloved" politicians demanded that nursing homes admit folks with COVID-19 (or without testing to make sure they did not have COVID-19).  Go figure.  So now we know (but you do not often hear it in the media) that 60-70% of all COVID-19 deaths have been folks in Nursing Homes and Personal Care Facilities.

 

So now, the cruise industry has put the future of the industry into the hands of some of these same "experts."  ARGH!

 

Hank

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

When I heard Dr Fauci lecture in the early days of the HIV/AIDs epidemic it was likely the first time I heard the expression, "we don't know what we don't know."  And I think that is the story of COVID-19.  The so-called experts have been all over the place when it comes to how this virus is spread and the risk factors attached to certain activities.  I have posted it before and will do it again.  In the past 4 months we have heard "experts" tell us this virus was low risk for the USA, masks were dangerous, masks were good, masks are necessary, cleaning packages is necessary, cleaning packages is not necessary, the virus can easily spread from surface contact, spread from surface contact is very rare, a temperature is a good screening tool, taking temperature is not a good screening tool, testing works, some testing has a high false negative rate, etc etc.

 

Just on these boards we see all the posts about buffets and their danger and yet a careful search will not turn up a single known case where somebody got COVID-19 from a buffet!  We have heard the talk about COVID-19 being spread through A/C/HVAC systems but I cannot find any verified cases where that has been proven.  

 

So, after about 6 months of COVID-19 we still seem to know very little, but sure have lots of speculation.   After Billions of dollars of research the "experts" can only now agree on Social Distancing and some type of mask (they type is debatable).   The truth is that anyone who has worked with any respiratory virus could have told you back in January that social distancing and masks are a good thing!   So where are we today?  About the same place we were on New Years Eve :(.

 

And finally, lets give out a big goose egg to the so-called "experts" who ignored the most obvious thing of all.  We knew in January that COVID-19 was a great risk to the elderly, especially in nursing homes.  This became very obvious with the first cluster in Washington.  And yet, our "experts" and "trusted politicians" chose to generally ignore this fact in favor of lots of speculation (much of it wrong).  Meanwhile, they fostered the death of huge numbers of folks in Nursing homes and Personal Care facilities.  Even an amateur, in early February, would have seen that locking down those facilities made lots of sense.  But no, the "experts" told us to disinfect our packages and mail while they did little to protect those vulnerable folks in nursing homes.  Here in Pennsylvania our Secretary of Health smartly moved her own mother out of a nursing home into a hotel room....but did little to protect the other folks in our nearly 600 facilities.  In NY and a few other States are "beloved" politicians demanded that nursing homes admit folks with COVID-19 (or without testing to make sure they did not have COVID-19).  Go figure.  So now we know (but you do not often hear it in the media) that 60-70% of all COVID-19 deaths have been folks in Nursing Homes and Personal Care Facilities.

 

So now, the cruise industry has put the future of the industry into the hands of some of these same "experts."  ARGH!

 

Hank

 

 

Actually they have learned quite a bit and the changes have occurred with that increase in knowledge. 

 

In the early days they said no masks because at that time 1. they needed the masks that were available for health care workers 2. It was thought that it spread mostly from contaminated surfaces similarly to the flu.  That one had to be very close for it to be passed on airborne.  3. That one had to be symptomatic to be contagious similarly to SARS and MERS. 4. Masks were looked at as used in the medical environment.  Designed to protect health care workers from known infected individuals and in an environment that is fairly high in virus.  In such an environment improper use of masks can be as dangerous as no masks.

 

As things changed with items 1. there are now non-medical grade masks easily available 2  now it is realized that most spread is airborne, though it can also spread through contaminated surfaces 3 that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals  are contagious, and that 50% are asymptomatic.  4. The mask use now is being looked at as a method for preventing spread from an infected individual by reducing the distance the virus will travel, it will also cut down on the distance one inhales air from though that is not the primary reason.  In such cases the virus on a mask is most likely to be on the infected persons own mask, not on the mask of a healthy person (though one should still handle their mask carefully and clean it daily if it is of the re-useable variety)

 

They now know more than they did in March and the recommendations have changed.

 

It is the same with hospital treatments.  They know know that blood clots and inflammation are two of the major impacts and that the use of blood thinners and steroids can reduce the fatality rate as well as reduce the other impacts in the survivors.  As a result someone going into intensive care has about a 30% greater survival rate today than they did in March.

 

Autopsies have shown that the presence of large number of micro clots account for a lot of the damage being done in many areas. 

 

Oh they also know that attack rate of the virus is very high on cruise ships which is why they are currently not allowed in the US, the EU, South America, Australia, New Zealand and most other places.

Edited by npcl

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Posted (edited)

It's really getting hilarious to read all the threads like this.  Bottom line is the cruise lines have no idea how to get cruising again and it will probably be months before they do.  And when they do, all the fun will be sucked out of the experience with masks and "social distancing" restrictions.  But people continue to debate and speculate on what will happen as the cancellation/refund chaos continues unabated with no end in sight.  We "lifted and shifted" everything to late 2021/2022. and have reached the point where we couldn't care less whether or not those cruises happen.  Much as we love cruising, we are moving on and not counting on it.  It's been liberating to forget about cruising for now. 

Edited by bouhunter

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31 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

It's really getting hilarious to read all the threads like this.  Bottom line is the cruise lines have no idea how to get cruising again and it will probably be months before they do.  And when they do, all the fun will be sucked out of the experience with masks and "social distancing" restrictions.  But people continue to debate and speculate on what will happen as the cancellation/refund chaos continues unabated with no end in sight.  We "lifted and shifted" everything to late 2021/2022. and have reached the point where we couldn't care less whether or not those cruises happen.  Much as we love cruising, we are moving on and not counting on it.  It's been liberating to forget about cruising for now. 

Yep, with the knowledge that most spread is airborne, and that the large numbers of asymptomatic cases can also infect others makes it an almost impossible situation for large cruise ships.

 

We had 6 cruises scheduled for this year.  We canceled all of them on Feb 5 when characteristics of this virus started coming out (long incubation time, number of mild cases, etc which made it pretty clear that this was not going to stop in Asia).  Now all have been refunded.  At this point we are not booking anything until it is clear about when cruise ship will sail and what such cruises will look like.

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5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

The question remains however will the CDC require that "rabbit hole" be explored.

Well, given that in their current "interim guidelines" for ships that have confirmed cases of covid onboard, that specifically call for no additional cleaning or maintenance of the HVAC system, I doubt they will go far down that rabbit hole.  They not only deal with their epidemiologists and public health specialists, but also the USCG Cruise Ship Center of Excellence (industry and governmental plankholders) for guidance as to not only what is needed, but what is obtainable.

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1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

Well, given that in their current "interim guidelines" for ships that have confirmed cases of covid onboard, that specifically call for no additional cleaning or maintenance of the HVAC system, I doubt they will go far down that rabbit hole.  They not only deal with their epidemiologists and public health specialists, but also the USCG Cruise Ship Center of Excellence (industry and governmental plankholders) for guidance as to not only what is needed, but what is obtainable.

OK, at least one silver lining that they are not asking for this nearly, if not totally, impossible task.

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On 7/2/2020 at 5:22 AM, chengkp75 said:

Yes, this is why I'm not going down the rabbit hole of trying to design "safe" airflows for cruise ships, until they are mandated for every place of business in the US that has a central ventilation system.

 

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22 hours ago, bouhunter said:

It's really getting hilarious to read all the threads like this.  Bottom line is the cruise lines have no idea how to get cruising again and it will probably be months before they do.  And when they do, all the fun will be sucked out of the experience with masks and "social distancing" restrictions.  But people continue to debate and speculate on what will happen as the cancellation/refund chaos continues unabated with no end in sight.  We "lifted and shifted" everything to late 2021/2022. and have reached the point where we couldn't care less whether or not those cruises happen.  Much as we love cruising, we are moving on and not counting on it.  It's been liberating to forget about cruising for now. 

I think each passing day people who love cruising are realizing there is more to life.

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On 7/2/2020 at 4:22 AM, chengkp75 said:

Yes, this is why I'm not going down the rabbit hole of trying to design "safe" airflows for cruise ships, until they are mandated for every place of business in the US that has a central ventilation system.

Given that some of the most reliable places to catch COVID-19 this week are bars, health clubs and nursing homes, it would seem a modest bit of study on moving shipboard indoor air flows around would be prudent.  It is sad for our hobby here that COVID-19 violates many industry rules and best practices.  So change will be hard.    

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On 7/2/2020 at 9:35 AM, Hlitner said:

 

 

So, after about 6 months of COVID-19 we still seem to know very little, but sure have lots of speculation.   

Remind me on 7/3/20 what basic important facts we still don't know?  It is a brand new virus so caught many by surprise.  I think we have a pretty good handle on dealing with Noro but it still has mysteries.  

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1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

I think each passing day people who love cruising are realizing there is more to life.

Some think that what's left of life is complaining about how long their cruise refund is taking to show up.

😃

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On 6/29/2020 at 12:12 PM, ew101 said:

 In my opinion, public areas on cruise ships would need HVAC changes - not cheap or easy- to being in more outside air and to recirculate as little as possible.  This is costly in terms of air conditioning/energy costs- there may be creative partial work arounds like heat exchangers.  (A side impact would be less indoor smoke).  I wonder if the UV treatment works?    Or can you filter more?  

 

The EU has just issued a document asking for this change  https://www.healthygateways.eu/Portals/0/plcdocs/EU_HEALTHY_GATEWAYS_COVID-19_RESTARTING_CRUISES.pdf?ver=2020-07-01-115942-557

 

"All of the air handling units (AHUs) should be switched from recirculation to 100% outside air by closing the recirculation dampers (via the Building Management System or manually) whenever possible. In case it is not possible to completely stop the recirculation of the air, the ship should explore improving air filtration as much as possible and using HEPA filters or Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation (UVGI)."

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I have been watching this doctor for a while.  He has been assessing what is going on for months.  Here is his latest video.  Air movement (and fresh air) does seem to be key.   

 

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