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CHEZMARYLOU

Speculation on Apex

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This is purely speculation on my part after our stint at the Martini Bar this afternoon and while waiting for the Chef to prepare dinner, I wish.😁

 

With cruising being up in the air and crews being scattered all over the seas, would it make sense to keep Apex in France until next year when cruising would hopefully resume from Europe instead of deadheading her to FLL for a shortened Caribbean season with what is likely an overcapacity of ships? Anyone see the logic, or failed logic, in this?

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It makes sense to me. Seems she could do at least limited European cruises till next spring for a TA. Your are right about over  capacity of ships in the Caribbean. It will be interesting to see how X begins to deploy ships when cruises from the US are able to begin again. Alas, I doubt that will happen before spring of next year. Hope we get to go on our b2b in early May. 

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I think the cruise lines will sail fewer ships for at least the first 2-4 months and with reduced passengers to accommodate the guidelines.  I don’t have any idea what the market would be for cruises in the winter from Southampton.  But the Edge & Apex are the most efficient ships in X’s fleet, so if I have to sail only 3 -4 ships I would want my most efficient cruising  In the Caribbean where there is a known market and passengers already booked 

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Makes total sense except for one thing:    the newer ships are much more efficient, have higher suite counts ( and thus cruise fare per cabin), more specialty restaurants, etc.   I can imagine Celebrity keeping back an M class ship before and Edge class.

 

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I really really hope not (being selfish). We are booked on the T/A this fall but are planning to lift and shift before the end of the month to the May 2021 T/A. 
 

We have had enough disappointments this year with cruising, really hate to see Apex stay In Europe until the end of 2021. 

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What nobody knows...and it makes a BIG difference in where all of this goes from here is WHEN and HOW the pandemic comes to a halt.

 

Preferably, the end comes because there is a viable vaccine in widespread supply.  If that happens, then, at that point, all bets are off and everything is quickly back to normal--no major concerns about running half empty ships or other out-of-the-ordinary precautions.  Obviously, cruise lines still need to care about normal communicable disease outbreaks--things like those Purell dispensers around the ship, maybe they care a bit more about having servers dish things out in the buffet rather than allowing everyone to handle the same stuff...but, other than that, I think it's full speed ahead...

 

The second scenario that MIGHT bring about a resumption in cruising is if there is 1) a reasonable treatment protocol that lessens the effects of the virus AND, 2) numbers are WAY down EVERYWHERE.

 

The problem there is that though many countries have really made an exerted effort to decrease the numbers and have results showing minimal cases and a low number of deaths, other countries have NO national policy to combat the pandemic and have far too many people interacting at close range with no policy toward distancing or masks or other methods of combating the spread...and are inconsistent in enforcement from one area to another within the same country or region of a country.  Without a strong, consistent policy, it becomes nearly impossible to stop the spread.  And it is absolutely ridiculous to go back and forth with shutting things down and opening them back up for ECONOMIC and POLITICAL reasons rather than medical and scientific reasons. 

 

As long as ANY areas where cruisers come from and/or ANY areas where cruise ships will travel to have any large number of cases/deaths and things are clearly not completely under control, you just cannot open up the cruise and travel business--Doing that will clearly just infect or reinfect new areas and spread and increase the disease.

 

So, it's either a VACCINE or a consistent INTERNATIONAL policy over an extended period of time with demonstrated results needed in order to return to a cruise industry as we have come to love it in the past.  Because certain world leaders have demonstrated zero intent and desire to do what they should do to put the second scenario in motion, we can, apparently, only hope for the first--the Vaccine.  And, when that happens, we shouldn't have to debate any of this...Cruising will return, the cruise lines will take a few days to deploy the ships from wherever they are to wherever they need them to be (where they've booked the cruises from) and every ship will be needed...

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33 minutes ago, Bruin Steve said:

What nobody knows...and it makes a BIG difference in where all of this goes from here is WHEN and HOW the pandemic comes to a halt.

 

Preferably, the end comes because there is a viable vaccine in widespread supply.  If that happens, then, at that point, all bets are off and everything is quickly back to normal--no major concerns about running half empty ships or other out-of-the-ordinary precautions.  Obviously, cruise lines still need to care about normal communicable disease outbreaks--things like those Purell dispensers around the ship, maybe they care a bit more about having servers dish things out in the buffet rather than allowing everyone to handle the same stuff...but, other than that, I think it's full speed ahead...

 

The second scenario that MIGHT bring about a resumption in cruising is if there is 1) a reasonable treatment protocol that lessens the effects of the virus AND, 2) numbers are WAY down EVERYWHERE.

 

The problem there is that though many countries have really made an exerted effort to decrease the numbers and have results showing minimal cases and a low number of deaths, other countries have NO national policy to combat the pandemic and have far too many people interacting at close range with no policy toward distancing or masks or other methods of combating the spread...and are inconsistent in enforcement from one area to another within the same country or region of a country.  Without a strong, consistent policy, it becomes nearly impossible to stop the spread.  And it is absolutely ridiculous to go back and forth with shutting things down and opening them back up for ECONOMIC and POLITICAL reasons rather than medical and scientific reasons. 

 

As long as ANY areas where cruisers come from and/or ANY areas where cruise ships will travel to have any large number of cases/deaths and things are clearly not completely under control, you just cannot open up the cruise and travel business--Doing that will clearly just infect or reinfect new areas and spread and increase the disease.

 

So, it's either a VACCINE or a consistent INTERNATIONAL policy over an extended period of time with demonstrated results needed in order to return to a cruise industry as we have come to love it in the past.  Because certain world leaders have demonstrated zero intent and desire to do what they should do to put the second scenario in motion, we can, apparently, only hope for the first--the Vaccine.  And, when that happens, we shouldn't have to debate any of this...Cruising will return, the cruise lines will take a few days to deploy the ships from wherever they are to wherever they need them to be (where they've booked the cruises from) and every ship will be needed...


I’m not sure that there will be any cruise lines still operating if the only option is a vaccine.  Lots of efforts being spent but to have a proven, effective vaccine takes time, possibly more than the cruise lines have. 
Having a consistent International policy won’t happen, heck we can’t even have a consistent national policy and on 1level I get that.  We live in a rural county with 35 cases and unfortunately 1 death, shutting us down is overkill.  But if that is what it takes then let’s do it!
So what’s the answer? I sure don’t know but maybe requiring reasonable precautions from the cruise lines, including preparation for isolation, debarkation & treatment of those who become ill,  release of liability from passengers to the cruise lines and some personal responsibility on the part of passengers to not board if they are ill, adhere to masks & social distancing and other steps to mitigate the spread.  
Can only hope that things will get better soon,

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Short winter cruises around the Canaries for Apex? 

But again it’s down to the countries and whether they will accept cruise ships.

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This makes perfect sense with one caveat. People love new things, and maybe having a new ship in the Caribbean would entice someone to book. Of course, this is pure conjecture at this time since we don't know when or if cruising will start.

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I'm not an Edge/Apex fan and I'm a little conflicted about what to do with the Apex.  On one hand I fell that she can stay permanently in Europe because I don't like the design of the Edge/Apex because it provides very little for the non-suite guest and I don't like the IV balconies.  However if the Apex comes to the Caribbean and it adds to excess capacity in the Caribbean, then the Apex will help lower prices in the Caribbean.  

 

After serious consideration, I hope they bring the ship to the Caribbean.

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3 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

I'm not an Edge/Apex fan and I'm a little conflicted about what to do with the Apex.  On one hand I fell that she can stay permanently in Europe because I don't like the design of the Edge/Apex because it provides very little for the non-suite guest and I don't like the IV balconies.  However if the Apex comes to the Caribbean and it adds to excess capacity in the Caribbean, then the Apex will help lower prices in the Caribbean.  

 

After serious consideration, I hope they bring the ship to the Caribbean.

I look forward to any scenario where APEX actually sails.  That in itself would be very meaningful.  Who cares where at this point?

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What really amazes me is all the speculation/projection that X would actually cancel ALL of the reservations currently booked for upcoming cruises and abruptly “change course” regarding Apex.

Would they really want to upset their loyal customers who have kept their reservations not only for the TA but also for her Caribbean season? Do they really want to start another round of refunds/FCC's at this time when they’re still dealing with previously canceled cruises?
Vaccine, or not, Apex is going to sail as planned (my opinion). The only reason X would change anything at this point would be due to circumstances beyond their control, which includes the intervention of foreign governments and/or the CDC.

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17 hours ago, CHEZMARYLOU said:

This is purely speculation on my part after our stint at the Martini Bar this afternoon and while waiting for the Chef to prepare dinner, I wish.😁

 

With cruising being up in the air and crews being scattered all over the seas, would it make sense to keep Apex in France until next year when cruising would hopefully resume from Europe instead of deadheading her to FLL for a shortened Caribbean season with what is likely an overcapacity of ships? Anyone see the logic, or failed logic, in this?

 

You have a very fgood point / logic. Firstly it is quite likely that no cruises will depart from any US port before even the end og Q1 2021 the earliest.

 

Should cruises commence before, it will be very restricted and for that, X has already enough ships floating around in the Caribbean / North American waters. Also, if I am not wrong, colder water means less maintenance for the ships, especially when they are not being actively used, hence it's best for Apex to stay where she is and only be introduced for the 2021 summer season in Europe if by then cruises can resume.

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9 hours ago, upwarduk said:

Short winter cruises around the Canaries for Apex? 

But again it’s down to the countries and whether they will accept cruise ships.

Yes.  Spain would need to lift their ban on cruise ships which they have now extended.

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Until Florida can get their containment under control, I have a difficult time seeing ships sail from there. Especially as long as New England states retain a 14 day quarantine for residents returning from Florida. Sure, it’s only July, still a number of months before the Caribbean seasons gets going. But we’ve been fighting this virus for 4 months now, and where are we in terms of containment? Thankfully, time has, and continues to give us useful information from the medical community. So my hope is we can make swifter progress in the next four months than we have the past four. And I believe now, for the first time, the US as a whole is starting to get on the same page with regard to how to contain. 

 

In the numbers category, I hope reduced capacity doesn’t shut anyone out who’s ready to cruise when it resumes. Personally, I don’t think it will be a problem, because in my conversations with a LOT of people, they’re not even beating down the doors of restaurants after 4 months of cooking at home! In our local area, I was concerned about obtaining reservations in restaurants with limited capacity seating. But, so far, it’s not at all a problem. People are coming back slowly and cautiously. 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Yes.  Spain would need to lift their ban on cruise ships which they have now extended.

And today American Airlines cancelled their flights to Barcelona from both Chicago and New York JFK until summer 2021. Not a good sign.

source: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Resets-International-Network-for-Remainder-of-2020-Through-Summer-2021-OPS-DIS-07/default.aspx

Edited by WNcruiser

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1 minute ago, WNcruiser said:

And today American Airlines cancelled their flights to Barcelona from both Chicago and New York JFK for the rest of 2020. Not a good sign 

Glad we lifted and shifted our Silhouette crossing in November.

 

And there is no way we are flying American with their policy of filling the planes to full capacity.  Especially on a lot of their long haul equipment with 3-3-3- seating and a couple almost guaranteed sitting with a stranger.  Pass.

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Looks like I should look into something I had already been pondering - adding days onto the front and back end of my trip elsewhere prior to my cruise. Or changing back to Edge Greece out of Rome. And figuring out what to do with the other half of the back to back.

 

In case other airlines do the same.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, WNcruiser said:

And today American Airlines cancelled their flights to Barcelona from both Chicago and New York JFK until summer 2021. Not a good sign.

source: http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Resets-International-Network-for-Remainder-of-2020-Through-Summer-2021-OPS-DIS-07/default.aspx

 

Thanks for posting this; they are pulling back on a number of international routes.  I have been waiting for American to be realistic and cancel my flights to Australia so I can get a refund. They are holding far more money that I want tied up in a credit.

Edited by mchell810

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I've made my view clear on Apex a number of times and with Europe starting (fingers cross) to get this thing under control I'm still of a view that Europe will start up first.

 

Interestingly these have been a number of comments to imply that the ships are now in their start up positions.

 

It seems logical to me that Apex, Constellation, infinity will ultimately stay in Europe and probably restart FULL cruising at the start of the 2021 Europe season on the Spring. That's not to say that, if things improve, they will not do some of the 2020 late Summer cruises but given the problems with getting Americans over, only thing Southampton could justify a restart this fall.

 

The UK currently does not ban Americans but does require a quarantine. Critical however is the number of local passengers and Southampton has more "drive to" passengers than any other Europe port. Hence I think Apex might do some of the Southampton Silhouette late Summer sailings.

 

Over the pond things don't look good. Short cruises will. in my opinion, be the order of the day. So the infinity fall programme is likely to be the first to start. But it would be a waste of money to bring her over from the med so my guess is the the these will be on Edge!!

 

So hear goes

 

Apex - Staying in Europe - starts FULL program in Spring 2021 - Does some of Silhouette Fall cruises out of Southampton starting late September

Constellation - Cold layup in Med - Starts Europe program Spring 2021 - Or sold!!

Infinity - Cold layup in Med - Starts Europe program Spring 2021 - Or sold!!

Edge - First ship to restart in Caribbean - Will do the Infinity short duration Winter Season

Equinox - Will restart Late 2020/Early 2021 on planned itinerary as longer cruises become acceptable

Solstice - Will cover either her Asia Winter 2020/Spring 2021 cruises or Eclipse Australia dependent on demand and flight availability

Millennium - Cold layup - restart Alaska season 2021

Eclipse - Cold layup - restart Alaska season 2021

Summit - Cold layup - restart North East Season Summer 2021

Reflection - Cold Layup - restart dependent on demand But could be Europe 2021 

Silhouette - Europe 2020 and South America 2021/2021 cancelled - New short Caribbean cruises introduced starting Early 2021

 

Anyone agree!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, BEAV said:

Until Florida can get their containment under control, I have a difficult time seeing ships sail from there. Especially as long as New England states retain a 14 day quarantine for residents returning from Florida. Sure, it’s only July, still a number of months before the Caribbean seasons gets going. But we’ve been fighting this virus for 4 months now, and where are we in terms of containment? Thankfully, time has, and continues to give us useful information from the medical community. So my hope is we can make swifter progress in the next four months than we have the past four. And I believe now, for the first time, the US as a whole is starting to get on the same page with regard to how to contain. 

 

In the numbers category, I hope reduced capacity doesn’t shut anyone out who’s ready to cruise when it resumes. Personally, I don’t think it will be a problem, because in my conversations with a LOT of people, they’re not even beating down the doors of restaurants after 4 months of cooking at home! In our local area, I was concerned about obtaining reservations in restaurants with limited capacity seating. But, so far, it’s not at all a problem. People are coming back slowly and cautiously. 

 

 

So if we can look back, countries with outbreaks, followed by early US states with outbreaks, with strict measures put in place and high compliance, took about 3-4 months for the infection case numbers to be lowered enough to be considered controlled.  Look at most of the northeast US including NY (March-June).   So if Florida would start today with similar measures, then perhaps end of October is where the control point would be for initiating safe(r) cruising from this state.  Unfortunately Florida shows no sign of doing this.  This is a relatively new development for the cruise industry and they are likely now worried mightily about resuming cruises from Florida any time in 2020 and early 2021.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

So if we can look back, countries with outbreaks, followed by early US states with outbreaks, with strict measures put in place and high compliance, took about 3-4 months for the infection case numbers to be lowered enough to be considered controlled.  Look at most of the northeast US including NY (March-June).   So if Florida would start today with similar measures, then perhaps end of October is where the control point would be for initiating safe(r) cruising from this state.  Unfortunately Florida shows no sign of doing this.  This is a relatively new development for the cruise industry and they are likely now worried mightily about resuming cruises from Florida any time in 2020 and early 2021.

Agreed, and it's really a shame. X has every intention of bringing Apex over from Spain on October 22, with arrival in Florida on Nov. 5th. So it fits in with your timeline.

Before, there was concern about Europe being the problem. Now it's one of our own states. 

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Although to look on the bright side cruising-wise  (is there a bright side??) if Florida continues at the pace it is, by late October so many people will have gotten sick that the numbers will start dropping due to herd immunity.  Sounds ridiculous, but I actually think there is some logic to it.  Not condoning it, just evaluating it.  The skeptical part of me wonders if that is in the back of the minds of some of the people in Florida making those decisions.  We'll never know.

 

I am booked on Apex the week after Thanksgiving.  I used to have some hope that it could reasonably sail (and by that I mean conditions overall would warrant a reasonably safe cruise with enjoyable conditions).  My hopes are rapidly fading.  The sad part - make that one of the sad parts as this is all sad - is that we will not know until very close to sailing time, after we have made final payment and after most of the chances of lift and shift are gone due to other people shifting to next year already.  If it were up to me I would lift and shift now, but we have already had five cruises cancelled this year (2 we shifted already) and DH is just not ready to call it on this one yet.

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1 minute ago, phoenix_dream said:

 

I am booked on Apex the week after Thanksgiving.  I used to have some hope that it could reasonably sail (and by that I mean conditions overall would warrant a reasonably safe cruise with enjoyable conditions).  My hopes are rapidly fading.  The sad part - make that one of the sad parts as this is all sad - is that we will not know until very close to sailing time, after we have made final payment and after most of the chances of lift and shift are gone due to other people shifting to next year already.  If it were up to me I would lift and shift now, but we have already had five cruises cancelled this year (2 we shifted already) and DH is just not ready to call it on this one yet.

Hang in there. We are booked on Apex for Oct. 22. We will make final payment (this week). Keeping fingers crossed and my glass half full. 😉

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14 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

Although to look on the bright side cruising-wise  (is there a bright side??) if Florida continues at the pace it is, by late October so many people will have gotten sick that the numbers will start dropping due to herd immunity.  Sounds ridiculous, but I actually think there is some logic to it.  Not condoning it, just evaluating it.  The skeptical part of me wonders if that is in the back of the minds of some of the people in Florida making those decisions.  We'll never know.

 

Honestly that has occurred to me as well. Not that it's a good idea, but that at the rate they're going they may well reach herd immunity.

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