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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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3 hours ago, mayleeman said:

I wonder how much of the lower amount of flu death/hospitalization this year is due to the high mortality rate of Covid in nursing homes and other highly vulnerable senior populations. Those are the groups that disproportionately suffer most from the flu.

 

Incidentally, early on there were some reports of higher resistance to Covid among people who had a combo of certain other vaccinations. Has anything more been reported on this? And are there any indications of any Covid vaccines varying in effectiveness in people who did or did not get flu vaccinations?  Or possibly having reduced flu symptoms than normal even if not getting the flu vaccine?

I read something about how other vaccines could help with COVID-19.  It is the MMR vaccine, which I had a booster recently.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-the-measles-vaccine-may-help-protect-against-covid-19

 

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2 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Under Operation Warp Speed, I believe the USA bet on 7 companies coming up with a vaccine.  So far, only 1 gave up (Merck) and 1 is expected later in the year (GlaxoSmith).  I guess they expected a higher failure rate.  There is a shortage now because only 2 companies have an EUA and the demand is great.  If approval, actually an EUA, comes as expected for 3 other companies, AZ, J&J and Novavax, the USA should have an excess of vaccines by end of Spring or beginning of Summer.  Companies can't start making the vaccines until they are sure they have a viable product.  This was all planned back in Spring 2020.  This appears to be more successful than expected despite what people think of their immediate situation.  Now, as paying passengers, we all could be vaccinated by beginning of summer.  The question, can we get the crew to be vaccinated?  Can we get the CDC to open up cruising?  This is just my opinion based on contractual obligations, past EUA approval method applied to current candidates, and simple math.  

I expect J&J to be approved quickly in the US.  Novavax depends upon the data and the timing. With AZ it depends upon their US trial. However, if the others are approved first and there is adequate supply in the US I am not sure if AZ would get an EUA, after all at that point there would not be an unmet medical need and the FDA tends not to approve products if a better one exists and is already approved. By regulation an EUA is only extended in the case of an unmet medical need.

 

That does not mean that they could not go ahead and file for full submission and approval, only the need for EUA goes away

 

While J&J's data is not as good as Pfizer and Moderna, it does have good enough data that combined with the single shot, and the easier distribution and storage requirements it should easily gets EUA.

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5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I think there are some consequences to when the pandemic is declared over maybe in the US at least.  Private health insurance for example.  Will they start charging individuals for COVID testing?  Will the US government end free vaccine programs?  Will Health insurance then charge for the vaccines and the administration of vaccines?  Future booster shots? I think I have read that a lot of this depends on whether we are still considered officially in a pandemic.  Also private travel insurance companies have linked some of their coverage to pandemics.

Based upon the availability of vaccines, the epidemic might be controlled in developed countries long before the pandemic is low enough around the world for WHO to end the declaration. I would not expect that for a couple of years. 

 

The US Federal Government and each state  might end their states of emergency before WHO ends its declaration

Edited by nocl
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59 minutes ago, nocl said:

I expect J&J to be approved quickly in the US.  Novavax depends upon the data and the timing. With AZ it depends upon their US trial. However, if the others are approved first and there is adequate supply in the US I am not sure if AZ would get an EUA, after all at that point there would not be an unmet medical need and the FDA tends not to approve products if a better one exists and is already approved. By regulation an EUA is only extended in the case of an unmet medical need.

 

That does not mean that they could not go ahead and file for full submission and approval, only the need for EUA goes away

 

While J&J's data is not as good as Pfizer and Moderna, it does have good enough data that combined with the single shot, and the easier distribution and storage requirements it should easily gets EUA.

Whether AZ gets approved or not is quite irrelevant because we will have an excess of vaccines.  Unless there is a requirement that all US residents have to be vaccinated, it appears we have enough just from Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J.  I guess our government can do some vaccine diplomacy with the AZ vaccine.  J&J has a contract of 100,000,000 doses with the USA, but they are planning to produce up to a billion vaccines by the end of the year, if demand permits.  

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Just read this article about the vaccinated US Congressman who has tested positive.  Thankfully, he is asymptomatic.  He is, however, required to quarantine to prevent transmission.  I am wondering what the probability of this happening is.  Such occurrences could prove tricky with regard to any type of international travel or resumption of normal activities.  Will a “vaccine passport” showing you are vaccinated only mean you probably won’t get really sick, but you could still carry the virus?  This is concerning since some of the new vaccines have a lower efficacy rate.
 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/vaccinated-congressman-tests-positive-for-virus

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2 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Whether AZ gets approved or not is quite irrelevant because we will have an excess of vaccines.  Unless there is a requirement that all US residents have to be vaccinated, it appears we have enough just from Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J.  I guess our government can do some vaccine diplomacy with the AZ vaccine.  J&J has a contract of 100,000,000 doses with the USA, but they are planning to produce up to a billion vaccines by the end of the year, if demand permits.  

Having an excess of manufactured vaccines by summer might be possible if all continues to go well - but that is just a first step.  The problem is that getting everybody that qualify (and who want a vaccine) actually vaccinated is proving to be a bottleneck now and what happens when the state programs are expanded?   It will take a lot of attention starting right now to getting people trained to administer vaccines and planning for mass vaccine events.  Not at the last minute.  Vaccines will sit in warehouses.  Significant planning in every state all needs to start now because a likely scenario is that up to 5 vaccines (PF, MOD, AZ, NV and JJ) could be available in good quantities within months.  Almost every state is stumbling and bumbling this right now- even if some of you have been lucky enough to have been vaccinated.  Initially states did not plan for a pandemic and failed in the response.  Now states have not planned for vaccine success and have failed in the response.  Can you tell I am frustrated?  Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.  

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1 hour ago, 81Zoomie said:

Just read this article about the vaccinated US Congressman who has tested positive.  Thankfully, he is asymptomatic.  He is, however, required to quarantine to prevent transmission.  I am wondering what the probability of this happening is.  Such occurrences could prove tricky with regard to any type of international travel or resumption of normal activities.  Will a “vaccine passport” showing you are vaccinated only mean you probably won’t get really sick, but you could still carry the virus?  This is concerning since some of the new vaccines have a lower efficacy rate.
 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/vaccinated-congressman-tests-positive-for-virus

Very much expected. Tested positive but not ill.  That will occur about 5% of the time according to the clinical data.  Why is this a surprise requiring media attention?  Because it is a congressman?   This will happen with 5 out of every 100 people receiving two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.  Transmission prevention has not been proven and it has been thoroughly discussed on this thread and broadly in the media. 

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6 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.

 

Sorry, no can do. I am too fascinated both by the amount of knowledge you have, and by how willing you are to share it!

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14 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Having an excess of manufactured vaccines by summer might be possible if all continues to go well - but that is just a first step.  The problem is that getting everybody that qualify (and who want a vaccine) actually vaccinated is proving to be a bottleneck now and what happens when the state programs are expanded?   It will take a lot of attention starting right now to getting people trained to administer vaccines and planning for mass vaccine events.  Not at the last minute.  Vaccines will sit in warehouses.  Significant planning in every state all needs to start now because a likely scenario is that up to 5 vaccines (PF, MOD, AZ, NV and JJ) could be available in good quantities within months.  Almost every state is stumbling and bumbling this right now- even if some of you have been lucky enough to have been vaccinated.  Initially states did not plan for a pandemic and failed in the response.  Now states have not planned for vaccine success and have failed in the response.  Can you tell I am frustrated?  Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.  

My curiosity is when are the pharmacies going to be allowed to play a more active roll, as shot giving is one of their day-to-day business practices? I've been hearing Wal-Mart, Walgreens, Publix (in 3 states) and CVS as well as a few other locally based pharmacies are ready. Is it up to the state to include them in the their distribution process or does each company negotiate with the feds/pharmaceutical companies to get on their distribution list? I've got the feeling it's a whole different process when it comes to getting the annual flu shots distributed to your local pharmacy?

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6 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Under Operation Warp Speed, I believe the USA bet on 7 companies coming up with a vaccine.  So far, only 1 gave up (Merck) and 1 is expected later in the year (GlaxoSmith).  I guess they expected a higher failure rate.  There is a shortage now because only 2 companies have an EUA and the demand is great.  If approval, actually an EUA, comes as expected for 3 other companies, AZ, J&J and Novavax, the USA should have an excess of vaccines by end of Spring or beginning of Summer.  Companies can't start making the vaccines until they are sure they have a viable product.  This was all planned back in Spring 2020.  This appears to be more successful than expected despite what people think of their immediate situation.  Now, as paying passengers, we all could be vaccinated by beginning of summer.  The question, can we get the crew to be vaccinated?  Can we get the CDC to open up cruising?  This is just my opinion based on contractual obligations, past EUA approval method applied to current candidates, and simple math.  

That's why Operation Warp Speed included paying companies to produce large quantities of potential vaccines before they were sure they were viable. The companies themselves could not have afforded to do so themselves with self funding.

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49 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Having an excess of manufactured vaccines by summer might be possible if all continues to go well - but that is just a first step.  The problem is that getting everybody that qualify (and who want a vaccine) actually vaccinated is proving to be a bottleneck now and what happens when the state programs are expanded?   It will take a lot of attention starting right now to getting people trained to administer vaccines and planning for mass vaccine events.  Not at the last minute.  Vaccines will sit in warehouses.  Significant planning in every state all needs to start now because a likely scenario is that up to 5 vaccines (PF, MOD, AZ, NV and JJ) could be available in good quantities within months.  Almost every state is stumbling and bumbling this right now- even if some of you have been lucky enough to have been vaccinated.  Initially states did not plan for a pandemic and failed in the response.  Now states have not planned for vaccine success and have failed in the response.  Can you tell I am frustrated?  Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.  

Once there is adequate vaccine the you will no longer be depending on the county vaccination sites.  Instead you will see the commercial sites such as the grocery store chains, the pharmacy chains kick into gear just like they do every year for flu season.  They are pretty much sidelined at this point due to lack of supply. You have a lot of people that normally do a lot of vaccinations sitting on the side line at this point due to the current limited supply and controlled distribution.  Distribution that is routed through organizations that normally do a limited number of vaccinations, because most these days are done by the walk up pharmacy locations, not the counties or even major hospitals.  

 

In addition you also have the local Doctor offices who are also out of the loop at this point they are also a source for a number of vaccinations, but less these days that the pharmacy injection sites.  I know that when I have asked my local Doctor about getting a vaccine their response is to get it from the local pharmacy (CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, Bi-mart, Vons, ...) because it is cheaper through them.

 

When enough vaccine is available the states can and well step make and let the normal commercial capacity take over.

Edited by nocl
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2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Having an excess of manufactured vaccines by summer might be possible if all continues to go well - but that is just a first step.  The problem is that getting everybody that qualify (and who want a vaccine) actually vaccinated is proving to be a bottleneck now and what happens when the state programs are expanded?   It will take a lot of attention starting right now to getting people trained to administer vaccines and planning for mass vaccine events.  Not at the last minute.  Vaccines will sit in warehouses.  Significant planning in every state all needs to start now because a likely scenario is that up to 5 vaccines (PF, MOD, AZ, NV and JJ) could be available in good quantities within months.  Almost every state is stumbling and bumbling this right now- even if some of you have been lucky enough to have been vaccinated.  Initially states did not plan for a pandemic and failed in the response.  Now states have not planned for vaccine success and have failed in the response.  Can you tell I am frustrated?  Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.  

Right now, for last 7 days, we are averaging 1.3 million vaccination shots.  That average is going to go higher with a little more practice.  You have to realize this is just with those mRNA vaccines.  If and when the J&J vaccine gets approved, covid vaccination program could be like the annual flu vaccination program.  It gets pushed down to the larger neighborhood pharmacies such as Walgreen's & CVS or whatever pharmacies that offers flu vaccine shots in your state.  This should push it to a much higher level.  The reason why we are at 1.3 million a day is the limited number of facilities to get shots as well as limited supply.  It is kind of laughable that so many people are complaining about the states' screwing up the distribution.  Well, as a former teacher, when you do something new, there is a learning curve.  You can minimize that learning curve with great planning. Fortunately, most if not all of the people involved in the distribution of the vaccines are trying to do their best.  If anything, it is generally the people at the top who are really slowing them down.  With people watching and complaining, those at the top seem to have minimize their micro-managing as they realize they are being compared to other states.  Most states seem to have gotten their act together.  J&J vaccine may be the key to how much of the population will be vaccinated. It is a single-dose vaccine.  It suppose to have milder side effects, nothing like the side effects of the 2nd dose of the mRNA vaccines.  If it is available at your neighborhood pharmacy, many who were hesitant about taking it may take it.  As we go on, employers may require employees to be vaccinated.  Students may be required to be vaccinated in order to return to school.    Though I do not support such draconian measures, a few states may allow it and SCOTUS may end up making the final decision.  Right now, we basically have 3 groups that I see who will not be getting the vaccine in the next 5-6 months, the anti-vaxxers, the wait and see (they are not anti-vaxxers, just want some history of the long term side effects), and the people who don't think we need it (mostly the young).  Many of the wait and see probably will get it before the end of summer.  The anti-vaxxers will never get it.  The people who don't think we need it will be the group that will be coerced through employer's requirement or school requirements or travel requirements or some other requirement.  

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3 hours ago, nocl said:

Once there is adequate vaccine the you will no longer be depending on the county vaccination sites.  Instead you will see the commercial sites such as the grocery store chains, the pharmacy chains kick into gear just like they do every year for flu season.  They are pretty much sidelined at this point due to lack of supply. You have a lot of people that normally do a lot of vaccinations sitting on the side line at this point due to the current limited supply and controlled distribution.  Distribution that is routed through organizations that normally do a limited number of vaccinations, because most these days are done by the walk up pharmacy locations, not the counties or even major hospitals.  

 

In addition you also have the local Doctor offices who are also out of the loop at this point they are also a source for a number of vaccinations, but less these days that the pharmacy injection sites.  I know that when I have asked my local Doctor about getting a vaccine their response is to get it from the local pharmacy (CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, Bi-mart, Vons, ...) because it is cheaper through them.

 

When enough vaccine is available the states can and well step make and let the normal commercial capacity take over.

Exactly. Right now, doses are limited and the government distribution isn't very efficient.  Once CVS, Walgreens, and other locations come online as more vaccines become available, we'll make fast progress. Consider how many influenza vaccines the pharmacy network. It's an enormous number of people in a relatively short time. 

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37 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Right now, for last 7 days, we are averaging 1.3 million vaccination shots.  That average is going to go higher with a little more practice.  You have to realize this is just with those mRNA vaccines.  If and when the J&J vaccine gets approved, covid vaccination program could be like the annual flu vaccination program.  It gets pushed down to the larger neighborhood pharmacies such as Walgreen's & CVS or whatever pharmacies that offers flu vaccine shots in your state.  This should push it to a much higher level.  The reason why we are at 1.3 million a day is the limited number of facilities to get shots as well as limited supply.  It is kind of laughable that so many people are complaining about the states' screwing up the distribution.  Well, as a former teacher, when you do something new, there is a learning curve.  You can minimize that learning curve with great planning. Fortunately, most if not all of the people involved in the distribution of the vaccines are trying to do their best.  If anything, it is generally the people at the top who are really slowing them down.  With people watching and complaining, those at the top seem to have minimize their micro-managing as they realize they are being compared to other states.  Most states seem to have gotten their act together.  J&J vaccine may be the key to how much of the population will be vaccinated. It is a single-dose vaccine.  It suppose to have milder side effects, nothing like the side effects of the 2nd dose of the mRNA vaccines.  If it is available at your neighborhood pharmacy, many who were hesitant about taking it may take it.  As we go on, employers may require employees to be vaccinated.  Students may be required to be vaccinated in order to return to school.    Though I do not support such draconian measures, a few states may allow it and SCOTUS may end up making the final decision.  Right now, we basically have 3 groups that I see who will not be getting the vaccine in the next 5-6 months, the anti-vaxxers, the wait and see (they are not anti-vaxxers, just want some history of the long term side effects), and the people who don't think we need it (mostly the young).  Many of the wait and see probably will get it before the end of summer.  The anti-vaxxers will never get it.  The people who don't think we need it will be the group that will be coerced through employer's requirement or school requirements or travel requirements or some other requirement.  

Lord almighty, this reads like a Harry Potter novel.  My firm (international law firm) is making it mandatory in order to return to office, YAY!  Folks who don't like it will be dealt with individually.  

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3 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

My curiosity is when are the pharmacies going to be allowed to play a more active roll, as shot giving is one of their day-to-day business practices? I've been hearing Wal-Mart, Walgreens, Publix (in 3 states) and CVS as well as a few other locally based pharmacies are ready. Is it up to the state to include them in the their distribution process or does each company negotiate with the feds/pharmaceutical companies to get on their distribution list? I've got the feeling it's a whole different process when it comes to getting the annual flu shots distributed to your local pharmacy?

 

In the Chicago area you can add in the grocery stores of Mariano's and Jewel/Osco (Osco is the "drug store/pharmacy" part of the store).  To date, however, if you don't already have one there's no way anyone new is getting an appointment.  Everything is booked solid.

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California has brought in Blue Shield as a private 3rd party to oversee vaccine distribution in our state.  Right now everyone that I know over 65 in San Diego has either had their first vaccine or has an appointment this week so I  am not sure if this move is a good thing or not.  Supposedly the move is to streamline efforts...maybe other states will follow suit?

Blue Shield Selected as California's Vaccine Rollout Partner (lamag.com)

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48 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

California has brought in Blue Shield as a private 3rd party to oversee vaccine distribution in our state.  Right now everyone that I know over 65 in San Diego has either had their first vaccine or has an appointment this week so I  am not sure if this move is a good thing or not.  Supposedly the move is to streamline efforts...maybe other states will follow suit?

Blue Shield Selected as California's Vaccine Rollout Partner (lamag.com)

Isn't Blue Shield a medical insurance company?  What does it know about distribution and logistics?

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Agree with all that has been written above.  As a physician immunologist, we have been restricted from vaccine administration by whatever local or state protocols are in place for vaccine distribution.  Most doctors are connected to Blue Shield which may assist when the supply is sufficient to distribute through individual and group physician practices.  It appears that the federal government is taking a more aggressive approach through the Defense Protection Act to ramp up supplies as well as other tweaks to increase the ongoing production of the vaccines.  I believe the biggest challenge may be that only about 60% of the population is willing to get the vaccine as previously mentioned.  Herd immunity occurs between 70 to 85% vaccinated or previously infected and even then we don't know how long the protection will last.  Not politically inclined as a physician but I try to remind my patients that the best chance for us to enjoy going out to restaurants, theaters, sporting events, religious services, and perhaps most importantly to my friends here, go on cruises, is for all of us to get vaccinated and encourage others.  We will still have to wear masks at times and possibly socially distance but that is a commonplace occurrence in areas like Japan even pre pandemic.  We also need to be patient and sensitive for the vaccines to be accessible in other parts of the world for their safety as well as our own.  I am hopeful that by 2022 the cruise industry and my fellow cruisers here will be able to enjoy each others company again.  Stay safe.

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13 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Having an excess of manufactured vaccines by summer might be possible if all continues to go well - but that is just a first step.  The problem is that getting everybody that qualify (and who want a vaccine) actually vaccinated is proving to be a bottleneck now and what happens when the state programs are expanded?   It will take a lot of attention starting right now to getting people trained to administer vaccines and planning for mass vaccine events.  Not at the last minute.  Vaccines will sit in warehouses.  Significant planning in every state all needs to start now because a likely scenario is that up to 5 vaccines (PF, MOD, AZ, NV and JJ) could be available in good quantities within months.  Almost every state is stumbling and bumbling this right now- even if some of you have been lucky enough to have been vaccinated.  Initially states did not plan for a pandemic and failed in the response.  Now states have not planned for vaccine success and have failed in the response.  Can you tell I am frustrated?  Sorry!  I do vent occasionally but you can just ignore me.  

Considering the demand for the vaccine, the states are doing a fair to good job.  Some states like West Virginia and the Dakotas are going great. Those states have vaccinated more than 10% of their population.  Here in our county in coastal Georgia the vaccinations started at our health department.  I received my second dose last Thursday.  They were vaccinating over 4000 persons a month.  For the last two weeks, the local Hospital has been vaccinating at three times that rate. Also, other places like doctor's offices, pharmacies, grocery stores, etc. are soon to start.  We are told that everyone that wants a vaccine will get theirs by early Summer.  Our county has about 86,000 population, but kids under 16 currently are not getting the vaccine.  

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13 hours ago, nocl said:

When enough vaccine is available the states can and well step make and let the normal commercial capacity take over.

I agree that the eventual solution will have to be some combination of pharmacies, grocery stores, doctor's offices and hopefully state, county and local vaccine events.  All need to be coordinated efforts at least for this year as the demand is very high and will continue as such.  Think about how many people will need to be vaccinated when states open up the group 18-64.  So my point is that even "normal commercial capacity" is woefully inadequate.  This will not be like the annual influenza vaccine.  Once COVID vaccine is available even in pharmacies and grocery stores they will be overwhelmed by the demand for many months.  I think this is inevitable.  We need much more than the normal commercial activity in 2021.  I am not being an alarmist but I think a realist.

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18 hours ago, nocl said:

Based upon the availability of vaccines, the epidemic might be controlled in developed countries long before the pandemic is low enough around the world for WHO to end the declaration. I would not expect that for a couple of years. 

 

The US Federal Government and each state  might end their states of emergency before WHO ends its declaration

Yes completely agree with you on this.

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1 hour ago, 4774Papa said:

Considering the demand for the vaccine, the states are doing a fair to good job.  Some states like West Virginia and the Dakotas are going great. Those states have vaccinated more than 10% of their population.  Here in our county in coastal Georgia the vaccinations started at our health department.  I received my second dose last Thursday.  They were vaccinating over 4000 persons a month.  For the last two weeks, the local Hospital has been vaccinating at three times that rate. Also, other places like doctor's offices, pharmacies, grocery stores, etc. are soon to start.  We are told that everyone that wants a vaccine will get theirs by early Summer.  Our county has about 86,000 population, but kids under 16 currently are not getting the vaccine.  

IMO, the perception of good job or not seems to depend on the state and county you are in and to some extent if you have been vaccinated already.  Those who have been vaccinated already perhaps feel that their state is doing a good job.  Those on waiting lists maybe agree or disagree.  The vast majority who cannot even get on a waiting list would disagree.

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15 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Very much expected. Tested positive but not ill.  That will occur about 5% of the time according to the clinical data.  Why is this a surprise requiring media attention?  Because it is a congressman?   This will happen with 5 out of every 100 people receiving two doses of Pfizer or Moderna vaccines.  Transmission prevention has not been proven and it has been thoroughly discussed on this thread and broadly in the media. 

I think this aspect of immunization limitations should be more widely publicized .  Many think getting the two shots  is the end of it.  Folks can still get Covid  ( maybe less serious case) and can  pass it along so continued vigilance is needed. Still need our masks and distancing.

 

 This may be being  downplayed so folks won't skip getting the vaccination..

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12 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Right now, for last 7 days, we are averaging 1.3 million vaccination shots.  That average is going to go higher with a little more practice.  You have to realize this is just with those mRNA vaccines.  If and when the J&J vaccine gets approved, covid vaccination program could be like the annual flu vaccination program.  It gets pushed down to the larger neighborhood pharmacies such as Walgreen's & CVS or whatever pharmacies that offers flu vaccine shots in your state.  This should push it to a much higher level.  The reason why we are at 1.3 million a day is the limited number of facilities to get shots as well as limited supply.  It is kind of laughable that so many people are complaining about the states' screwing up the distribution.  Well, as a former teacher, when you do something new, there is a learning curve.  You can minimize that learning curve with great planning. Fortunately, most if not all of the people involved in the distribution of the vaccines are trying to do their best.  If anything, it is generally the people at the top who are really slowing them down.  With people watching and complaining, those at the top seem to have minimize their micro-managing as they realize they are being compared to other states.  Most states seem to have gotten their act together.  J&J vaccine may be the key to how much of the population will be vaccinated. It is a single-dose vaccine.  It suppose to have milder side effects, nothing like the side effects of the 2nd dose of the mRNA vaccines.  If it is available at your neighborhood pharmacy, many who were hesitant about taking it may take it.  As we go on, employers may require employees to be vaccinated.  Students may be required to be vaccinated in order to return to school.    Though I do not support such draconian measures, a few states may allow it and SCOTUS may end up making the final decision.  Right now, we basically have 3 groups that I see who will not be getting the vaccine in the next 5-6 months, the anti-vaxxers, the wait and see (they are not anti-vaxxers, just want some history of the long term side effects), and the people who don't think we need it (mostly the young).  Many of the wait and see probably will get it before the end of summer.  The anti-vaxxers will never get it.  The people who don't think we need it will be the group that will be coerced through employer's requirement or school requirements or travel requirements or some other requirement.  

Excellent thoughts!

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9 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Isn't Blue Shield a medical insurance company?  What does it know about distribution and logistics?

Yep, no idea what they know....I guess we will find out.  Right now some grocers like Albertsons, Vons, Ralphs, and some medical groups (Scripps, UCSD) have the vaccine.  Ironically not CVS or Walgreens yet. Most people are getting them at County "super stations" like Petco park (Padres) and college campuses.  Not sure how that will change.  As mentioned before, there is a possibility we will move to an aged based system but of course that is hugely controversial so decisions to be made after the current 8.5 million people over 65, teachers, food and agriculture workers are done which will be months down the road I am sure. Hoping states learn from other states like WV.

BTW there are a lot of stories of people being at the right place at the right time being where there happen to be doses available at close of businesses.  At that time, phases/priority mean nothing so.....

 

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