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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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21 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

My daughter is anti-vax and is a teacher.  She had a choice, get the vaccine or...guess what she did?!?!

If she is like most of the anti-vaxxers and COVID deniers that we know, they hustled right to the front of the line to get jabbed. 

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28 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

If she is like most of the anti-vaxxers and COVID deniers that we know, they hustled right to the front of the line to get jabbed. 

She got the shot with reservation, did not have to hustle or take anyone else's place in line, as she was eligible according to her state guidelines.  I was just like come on girl, it is so important.  SMH

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3 hours ago, nocl said:

And who made the video?

A group called “America’s Frontline Doctors” specifically Dr Simone Gold. Video is long. I fast forwarded through much and didn’t research any of it because it is blah, blah, blah to me.

https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/custom_videos/the-stand-the-truth-about-the-covid-19-vaccine/

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13 minutes ago, mimbecky said:
 

A group called “America’s Frontline Doctors” specifically Dr Simone Gold. Video is long. I fast forwarded through much and didn’t research any of it because it is blah, blah, blah to me.

https://www.americasfrontlinedoctors.com/custom_videos/the-stand-the-truth-about-the-covid-19-vaccine/

The worst part is you have to get to the end of the video before she starts hawking the Snake Oil and Magic Elixers (snark).

 

Then Dr. Gold headed off to Washington on January 6th for the festivities there.  She was arrested later in January.

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There is one additional (often overlooked) concept in how we as humans respond to viruses and variants of original viruses.  We have spent much time speaking here about memory responses of our immune system.  When we see the virus again (or antigen again in the case of vaccines) we mount a vigorous and immediate response with a whole host of antibodies, T-Cells and other immune system components.  Good news.  But everybody seems to be worried about those damn (but normal) variants.

 

But another known concept is the evolution of the immune response. Particularly the evolution of our memory-based immune response. Our human memory immune response changes and fine tunes itself over time and becomes even better.  Over time.  From infants through adults.  This concept also helps fight both original and variant viruses.  So the virus changes (bad !) but our antibodies also evolve (good!).  We are better than we think!  Evidence for this is starting to be characterized for COVID infections.  Here are a couple of links to recent published articles (but sorry they are quite technical so no need for most to go there unless you really want to).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?

 

https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/4/34/eaau2710

 

 

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18 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Education yes, because of all the skepticism out there.  The hot topic in my circles is whether to have young adult women vaccinated.  A lot of fear about infertility being talked about.....My sister in law sent me a video about it.

I have a young adult daughter but I would assume Fauci and others who are at the front lines have daughters also and wouldn't be pushing it without feeling confident it is a bogus claim.

 

M

 

 

This BS came out of a conservative Roman Catholic publication that used quasi science to spread the rumor that the Covid 19 vaccine will cause infertility or spontaneous abortions in women.

 

It is based on endogenous viral DNA in the human genome that over the millennia has been incorporated and now plays a part  in helping the placenta attach to the uterine wall. Because the vaccine is a mRNA vector, the extrapolation has been made that the Covid 19 vaccine will also have the same effect  and prevent pregnancy.

 

Interestingly enough, no one  (at least in the general public) has picked up on the concerns that similar to the mumps and other viruses, Covid 19 infection (NOT - I repeat - Not the vaccine ) may cause sterility in males.

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10 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

There is one additional (often overlooked) concept in how we as humans respond to viruses and variants of original viruses.  We have spent much time speaking here about memory responses of our immune system.  When we see the virus again (or antigen again in the case of vaccines) we mount a vigorous and immediate response with a whole host of antibodies, T-Cells and other immune system components.  Good news.  But everybody seems to be worried about those damn (but normal) variants.

 

But another known concept is the evolution of the immune response. Particularly the evolution of our memory-based immune response. Our human memory immune response changes and fine tunes itself over time and becomes even better.  Over time.  From infants through adults.  This concept also helps fight both original and variant viruses.  So the virus changes (bad !) but our antibodies also evolve (good!).  We are better than we think!  Evidence for this is starting to be characterized for COVID infections.  Here are a couple of links to recent published articles (but sorry they are quite technical so no need for most to go there unless you really want to).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?

 

https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/4/34/eaau2710

 

 

Rick - any comment on the NYT article on herd immunity in Weekender?  No subscription required.  Sorry can't get a link posted using my phone.

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49 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Rick - any comment on the NYT article on herd immunity in Weekender?  No subscription required.  Sorry can't get a link posted using my phone.

Yes I read the article which is general and very good in many ways- and here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210220&instance_id=27341&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=52065&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

 

It focuses on Total Immunity which I have been speaking about in my posts recently.

 

You asked for a comment.  I will say that herd immunity is important but many people are making it an all or nothing success milestone, ie., reduce positive cases and transmission.  If and when we achieve that the pandemic ends.  We can go about our lives.  We can cruise. 

 

But we might never achieve it in the foreseeable future based upon a number of well discussed factors.  This coronavirus will likely be with us in one form or another for years to come.  Just like many other respiratory viruses.  Rhinoviruses.  RSV.  Influenza (even with vaccines).  So I think the much better success milestone  which is achievable in perhaps 1-2 years is to get a high percentage of the world's population vaccinated.  And then live with the virus like we live with influenza.  Dramatically reduce severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  With the current and future vaccines.  But if we are all waiting for the virus to be fully stopped and go away by herd immunity then we will be very disappointed.  Remember the very early days of the pandemic - when we were all asked to isolate and make sure the virus was kept manageable and  "under the curve" so we would not overwhelm our health care systems?  Until we developed vaccines?  Until we could vaccinate the elderly, weak, susceptible, and hcw's and first responders?  We are closer to doing that now.  Why did we change the end game?

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Apparently, people are still cruising in Europe and Singapore.  Also, passengers are discovered to have covid-19.  Here is a link to discussion of a passenger with covid-19 aboard the MSC Grandiosa which occurred this last week:

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2772569-msc-grandiosa-passenger-tested-positive-for-covid-19/

 

Here is a link to a website that may prove interesting to cruisers:

 

https://www.cruiselawnews.com/articles/disease/

 

The question, Are the vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?, will be answered by a "no" because vaccines are not 100% effective.  They will be a requirement and will add an additional layer of protection, perhaps the biggest layer of protection.  It is the protocols in the MSC Grandiosa which is probably the most interesting which allowed the cruise to continue with only a minor interruption.  A tracking system is probably a requirement on any future cruise - something similiar to the Princess Medallion system.  Go into the links and assess for yourself.

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10 hours ago, TeeRick said:

There is one additional (often overlooked) concept in how we as humans respond to viruses and variants of original viruses.  We have spent much time speaking here about memory responses of our immune system.  When we see the virus again (or antigen again in the case of vaccines) we mount a vigorous and immediate response with a whole host of antibodies, T-Cells and other immune system components.  Good news.  But everybody seems to be worried about those damn (but normal) variants.

 

But another known concept is the evolution of the immune response. Particularly the evolution of our memory-based immune response. Our human memory immune response changes and fine tunes itself over time and becomes even better.  Over time.  From infants through adults.  This concept also helps fight both original and variant viruses.  So the virus changes (bad !) but our antibodies also evolve (good!).  We are better than we think!  Evidence for this is starting to be characterized for COVID infections.  Here are a couple of links to recent published articles (but sorry they are quite technical so no need for most to go there unless you really want to).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?

 

https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/4/34/eaau2710

 

 

Thus the reason why older folks did better with the Spanish Flu than those younger.  Even though none of them had seen it before, the old folks immune system had seen something related and was able to combat the Spanish flu better than those without the prior history.

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2 hours ago, larry_s_taco said:

Many of you have probably already heard this, but I just read an article that said Crystal Cruises, and their subsidies will be requiring proof of vaccine before cruising now. I wish the rest of the lines were a little quicker on the draw. 

Crystal may be banking on the CDC making vaccines a requirement (and/or they're smart on the marketing side).   Without the CDC on board, US-based cruises are dead in the water, vaccines or not, unless cruise companies are willing to jump through the now-outdated conditional sailing order requirements.  

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14 minutes ago, D C said:

Crystal may be banking on the CDC making vaccines a requirement (and/or they're smart on the marketing side).   Without the CDC on board, US-based cruises are dead in the water, vaccines or not, unless cruise companies are willing to jump through the now-outdated conditional sailing order requirements.  

2022

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Many experts are now suggesting that we may be underestimating the number of people that have contracted Covid and recovered by a factor between 4 and 6.  This suggests that almost 50% of the US may already have immunity and combined with about 15 - 20 percent of the population vaccinated by April we may be in a position to have a normal summer.  However they also suggest that later in the fall when more activities move inside again that we will see another surge in the fall requiring activities to have some restrictions again.  If true, is this a nightmare scenario for the cruise lines?  If the cruise lines make all of the investment to resume cruising in August or September only to be forced to shut down again in October or November?   I'm starting to wonder if there will be a normal winter 2022 - 2023 cruising season.  

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11 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Many experts are now suggesting that we may be underestimating the number of people that have contracted Covid and recovered by a factor between 4 and 6.  This suggests that almost 50% of the US may already have immunity and combined with about 15 - 20 percent of the population vaccinated by April we may be in a position to have a normal summer.  However they also suggest that later in the fall when more activities move inside again that we will see another surge in the fall requiring activities to have some restrictions again.  If true, is this a nightmare scenario for the cruise lines?  If the cruise lines make all of the investment to resume cruising in August or September only to be forced to shut down again in October or November?   I'm starting to wonder if there will be a normal winter 2022 - 2023 cruising season.  

I have posted on this a number of times.  The CDC has been stating that there is an underestimate of the number of infected since early in the pandemic.  Early on (with not enough testing in place) they were estimating a factor of 10X.  Now they are saying more like 3X to 4X.  Cumulative.  So perhaps the US has conservatively at least 100 million infections since the pandemic began.  In the US we have had 63 million doses of vaccine (1 or 2 doses) but good protection even after 1st dose.  And then there is also natural immunity (like in kids for the most part). So we are well on our way in the US to dropping infections (and dramatic drops right now).  But not out of the woods yet according to Dr. Fauci yesterday.   More vaccine (J&J) will be approved by 1st week in March.  I think the glass is definitely more than half full.   But this is in the US.  The UK, Israel and some of the EU is trending the same.  But the rest of the world is a big place with a huge population.  The most populous countries (China, India, Russia) are producing vaccines and going full speed.  Since cruising is worldwide in destinations, passengers and crew, it will still be very limited in scope perhaps through 2022.

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1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

Many experts are now suggesting that we may be underestimating the number of people that have contracted Covid and recovered by a factor between 4 and 6.  This suggests that almost 50% of the US may already have immunity and combined with about 15 - 20 percent of the population vaccinated by April we may be in a position to have a normal summer.  However they also suggest that later in the fall when more activities move inside again that we will see another surge in the fall requiring activities to have some restrictions again.  If true, is this a nightmare scenario for the cruise lines?  If the cruise lines make all of the investment to resume cruising in August or September only to be forced to shut down again in October or November?   I'm starting to wonder if there will be a normal winter 2022 - 2023 cruising season.  

Everyone in the US who wants a vaccine will have been able to get one by then.  There is no basis for a surge imho. 

 

If cruise lines require vaccines, they should be in great shape regardless. 

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26 minutes ago, D C said:

Everyone in the US who wants a vaccine will have been able to get one by then.  There is no basis for a surge imho. 

 

If cruise lines require vaccines, they should be in great shape regardless. 

 

Yep that's the issue.  People that decided not to get vaccinated including children under 16.  Multiple expert sources suggest there will be rise in cases this Fall.

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Sanofi steps up again.  This time agreeing to manufacture J&J vaccine (12 million doses per month).  I have never in my career in Pharma seen such cooperation and working towards the common good!

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-02-22/sanofi-to-help-second-rival-produce-covid-19-vaccines

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6 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Yep that's the issue.  People that decided not to get vaccinated including children under 16.  Multiple expert sources suggest there will be rise in cases this Fall.

Rise in cases maybe to some extent and in some parts of the world.  But let's shift focus to whether they are severe cases and deaths.  That is less likely with the vaccines out there.  Counting just positive test results becomes much less relevant over time when vaccines start to dominate.  Transmission will be down and cases will be mild.  Some countries like Israel are already seeing this happen.  Also even the people who decide not to get vaccinated are to some extent protected if the rest of us do get vaccinated.  And they will not be cruising with us.

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4 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Sanofi steps up again.  This time agreeing to manufacture J&J vaccine (12 million doses per month).  I have never in my career in Pharma seen such cooperation and working towards the common good!

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2021-02-22/sanofi-to-help-second-rival-produce-covid-19-vaccines

 

Smart business move as well, I suspect. They're not making any money on idle capacity, and as a general rule they really don't make money on vaccines, when you amortize the developmental costs.

 

But they didn't have to do this, and they are.

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45 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

Smart business move as well, I suspect. They're not making any money on idle capacity, and as a general rule they really don't make money on vaccines, when you amortize the developmental costs.

 

But they didn't have to do this, and they are.

There is also a probability that France can get a share of the J&J vaccine that Sanofi produces.  Perhaps, a licensing agreement in the future?  I don't think they do it out of the generosity of their heart.

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