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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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19 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

There is also a probability that France can get a share of the J&J vaccine that Sanofi produces.  Perhaps, a licensing agreement in the future?  I don't think they do it out of the generosity of their heart.


Generally speaking, most vaccine manufacturers can act as a CMO, contract manufacturing organization. Probably some exceptions for purpose built facilities, but if they’re doing subunit vaccines or vectored vaccines, etc., they should be able to switch over to another product. Probably no real financial difference whether they’re just making the vaccine or licensing it. 

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1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

Yep that's the issue.  People that decided not to get vaccinated including children under 16.  Multiple expert sources suggest there will be rise in cases this Fall.

If there is... too bad for them. 

Regardless, there should be enough immunity to prevent widespread cases.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Rise in cases maybe to some extent and in some parts of the world.  But let's shift focus to whether they are severe cases and deaths.  That is less likely with the vaccines out there.  Counting just positive test results becomes much less relevant over time when vaccines start to dominate.  Transmission will be down and cases will be mild.  Some countries like Israel are already seeing this happen.  Also even the people who decide not to get vaccinated are to some extent protected if the rest of us do get vaccinated.  And they will not be cruising with us.

Well said.   More media doomsday sensationalism than anything in those stories. 

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On 2/21/2021 at 9:13 AM, TeeRick said:

There is one additional (often overlooked) concept in how we as humans respond to viruses and variants of original viruses.  We have spent much time speaking here about memory responses of our immune system.  When we see the virus again (or antigen again in the case of vaccines) we mount a vigorous and immediate response with a whole host of antibodies, T-Cells and other immune system components.  Good news.  But everybody seems to be worried about those damn (but normal) variants.

 

But another known concept is the evolution of the immune response. Particularly the evolution of our memory-based immune response. Our human memory immune response changes and fine tunes itself over time and becomes even better.  Over time.  From infants through adults.  This concept also helps fight both original and variant viruses.  So the virus changes (bad !) but our antibodies also evolve (good!).  We are better than we think!  Evidence for this is starting to be characterized for COVID infections.  Here are a couple of links to recent published articles (but sorry they are quite technical so no need for most to go there unless you really want to).

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03207-w?

 

https://immunology.sciencemag.org/content/4/34/eaau2710

 

 

Very interesting Tee, and at least somewhat encouraging. My crystal ball for the future is somewhere between “America’s Frontline Doctors” and Dr. Fauci (no not Fauci, the doom and gloom guy from Minnesota, can’t think of his name...). We have interesting 3-4 weeks ahead.

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2 hours ago, Fouremco said:

An interesting article on clinics opening to deal with "Long Covid". I think that the number of people who have become long-haulers has been largely ignored by the media.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/22/health/long-covid-clinics/index.html

 

Yes, I don't understand why people aren't terrified of the >30% with so-far permanent fatigue.  and ~5% so-far permanent change in sense of smell.  Those to me are terrifying numbers.

 

Especially as the long term fatigue is being seen in high percentages even in younger age groups, who might have a low mortality risk, and even in mild cases.  Hopefully it goes away, but if it doesn't, I feel like the countries that did not do a good job of controlling the disease are in for long term social impacts.

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On 2/21/2021 at 9:40 AM, TeeRick said:

Yes I read the article which is general and very good in many ways- and here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210220&instance_id=27341&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=52065&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

 

It focuses on Total Immunity which I have been speaking about in my posts recently.

 

You asked for a comment.  I will say that herd immunity is important but many people are making it an all or nothing success milestone, ie., reduce positive cases and transmission.  If and when we achieve that the pandemic ends.  We can go about our lives.  We can cruise. 

 

But we might never achieve it in the foreseeable future based upon a number of well discussed factors.  This coronavirus will likely be with us in one form or another for years to come.  Just like many other respiratory viruses.  Rhinoviruses.  RSV.  Influenza (even with vaccines).  So I think the much better success milestone  which is achievable in perhaps 1-2 years is to get a high percentage of the world's population vaccinated.  And then live with the virus like we live with influenza.  Dramatically reduce severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  With the current and future vaccines.  But if we are all waiting for the virus to be fully stopped and go away by herd immunity then we will be very disappointed.  Remember the very early days of the pandemic - when we were all asked to isolate and make sure the virus was kept manageable and  "under the curve" so we would not overwhelm our health care systems?  Until we developed vaccines?  Until we could vaccinate the elderly, weak, susceptible, and hcw's and first responders?  We are closer to doing that now.  Why did we change the end game?

Politics.  Combined with medical professionals and throw in the idiotic internet articles like the female sterility or vaccine causing multiple deaths from Norway and the goal posts get moved both in general and for individuals.  

Interesting that we have little trust of mainstream media but if it is on the internet it must be true.

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1 hour ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Yes, I don't understand why people aren't terrified of the >30% with so-far permanent fatigue.  and ~5% so-far permanent change in sense of smell.  Those to me are terrifying numbers.

 

Especially as the long term fatigue is being seen in high percentages even in younger age groups, who might have a low mortality risk, and even in mild cases.  Hopefully it goes away, but if it doesn't, I feel like the countries that did not do a good job of controlling the disease are in for long term social impacts.

I could be very wrong, but I think that the general thought process with many people is if you catch COVID you either recover or die. Very black and white, with no shades of grey.  

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On 2/21/2021 at 11:40 AM, TeeRick said:

Yes I read the article which is general and very good in many ways- and here is the link:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/02/20/us/us-herd-immunity-covid.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210220&instance_id=27341&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=52065&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

 

It focuses on Total Immunity which I have been speaking about in my posts recently.

 

You asked for a comment.  I will say that herd immunity is important but many people are making it an all or nothing success milestone, ie., reduce positive cases and transmission.  If and when we achieve that the pandemic ends.  We can go about our lives.  We can cruise. 

 

But we might never achieve it in the foreseeable future based upon a number of well discussed factors.  This coronavirus will likely be with us in one form or another for years to come.  Just like many other respiratory viruses.  Rhinoviruses.  RSV.  Influenza (even with vaccines).  So I think the much better success milestone  which is achievable in perhaps 1-2 years is to get a high percentage of the world's population vaccinated.  And then live with the virus like we live with influenza.  Dramatically reduce severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.  With the current and future vaccines.  But if we are all waiting for the virus to be fully stopped and go away by herd immunity then we will be very disappointed.  Remember the very early days of the pandemic - when we were all asked to isolate and make sure the virus was kept manageable and  "under the curve" so we would not overwhelm our health care systems?  Until we developed vaccines?  Until we could vaccinate the elderly, weak, susceptible, and hcw's and first responders?  We are closer to doing that now.  Why did we change the end game?

 

The goalposts have continually moved over the past year.  "not overwhelm healthcare systems" was a mere flash in the pan that was quickly replaced by case counts and positivity rates (still an idiotic measure) with no actual basis in where 'the curve' was.  

 

At some point, it becomes endemic.  I've asked for a while what that criteria is.  When people stop dying from it?  When we reach some 'herd immunity' state?  I'll propose it's when vaccines are readily available for anyone who wants one.  That seems like a good "get back to normal" milestone to me.

 

On your latter point, I wonder what the exit strategy is (and was all along) for places like Australia and new Zealand who took the "one case is too many" approach.  They seem to be getting by ok with the isolation approach, so I would imagine they would be at the bottom of the global list for vaccines as there is a lack of urgent need to prevent deaths there. 

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2 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Yes, I don't understand why people aren't terrified of the >30% with so-far permanent fatigue.  and ~5% so-far permanent change in sense of smell.  Those to me are terrifying numbers.

 

Especially as the long term fatigue is being seen in high percentages even in younger age groups, who might have a low mortality risk, and even in mild cases.  Hopefully it goes away, but if it doesn't, I feel like the countries that did not do a good job of controlling the disease are in for long term social impacts.

This, sadly, has become "yesterday's news".

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

I could be very wrong, but I think that the general thought process with many people is if you catch COVID you either recover or die. Very black and white, with no shades of grey.  

You are not correct.  A significant number - have heard anywhere from 5% to 20% - have medium term issues.  Mostly taste, smell and fatigue.  A large group - don't remember the number - have lasting effects including children.  Nephew recovered in May.  Has what would be called before chronic fatigue syndrome along with taste coming and going.  He is 22 or 23.

PS - wish you were correct!

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3 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You are not correct.  A significant number - have heard anywhere from 5% to 20% - have medium term issues.  Mostly taste, smell and fatigue.  A large group - don't remember the number - have lasting effects including children.  Nephew recovered in May.  Has what would be called before chronic fatigue syndrome along with taste coming and going.  He is 22 or 23.

PS - wish you were correct!

 

I think he said many people think that, not that it's true. Because it certainly isn't.

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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

I could be very wrong, but I think that the general thought process with many people is if you catch COVID you either recover or die. Very black and white, with no shades of grey.  

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351

Thanks to my grandson for how to post the link.

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2 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You are not correct.  A significant number - have heard anywhere from 5% to 20% - have medium term issues.  Mostly taste, smell and fatigue.  A large group - don't remember the number - have lasting effects including children.  Nephew recovered in May.  Has what would be called before chronic fatigue syndrome along with taste coming and going.  He is 22 or 23.

PS - wish you were correct!

 

2 hours ago, markeb said:

 

I think he said many people think that, not that it's true. Because it certainly isn't.

Yes @markeb, you're absolutely correct. In an earlier posted that "I think that the number of people who have become long-haulers has been largely ignored by the media", contributing to this lack of awareness in the general public.

 

@Arizona Wildcat, I'm sorry to hear about your nephew. Unfortunately, as you already know, he is but one of all too many people who continue to suffer long after their initial "recovery". 

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32 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

They have to in order to meet their contractual obligation.  They are supposed to deliver 100,000,000 by end of March and another 100,000,000 by the end of June (though they said they could do it by end of May).  As of 6am on Feb. 21, between Pfizer and Moderna, they have delivered just over 75,200,000 doses.  I hope both of them meet their targets. 

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A few pieces of Covid vaccine news:

 

1) J&J has their Covid one-shot vaccine reviewed by FDA advisory committee on Friday.  Hopefully it will be authorized with doses being shipped first week in March.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/23/health/johnson--johnson-covid-19-vaccine-fda-committee/index.html

 

2)The FDA has stated that new versions of Covid vaccines (like against variant viruses) do not have to be in lengthy, large clinical studies.  Instead they can be treated in the small clinical trials to prove they are producing similar immunity as the original (Equivalency studies).  Just like annual influenza vaccines.  Great news!

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/covid-vaccine-fda-says-shots-that-target-new-variants-wont-need-large-clinical-trials-to-win-approval.html

 

3)Pooling Covid vaccine liquid remaining in vials could produce a lot more doses every day.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pharmacists-say-pooling-covid-vaccines-could-save-thousands-doses-n1258149

Edited by TeeRick
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17 hours ago, D C said:

 

The goalposts have continually moved over the past year.  "not overwhelm healthcare systems" was a mere flash in the pan that was quickly replaced by case counts and positivity rates (still an idiotic measure) with no actual basis in where 'the curve' was.  

 

At some point, it becomes endemic.  I've asked for a while what that criteria is.  When people stop dying from it?  When we reach some 'herd immunity' state?  I'll propose it's when vaccines are readily available for anyone who wants one.  That seems like a good "get back to normal" milestone to me.

 

On your latter point, I wonder what the exit strategy is (and was all along) for places like Australia and new Zealand who took the "one case is too many" approach.  They seem to be getting by ok with the isolation approach, so I would imagine they would be at the bottom of the global list for vaccines as there is a lack of urgent need to prevent deaths there. 

Australia is starting Covid vaccinations now and here is their strategy.

https://www.health.gov.au/news/first-covid-19-vaccinations-in-australia

 

New Zealand also starting now.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines

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16 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You are not correct.  A significant number - have heard anywhere from 5% to 20% - have medium term issues.  Mostly taste, smell and fatigue.  A large group - don't remember the number - have lasting effects including children.  Nephew recovered in May.  Has what would be called before chronic fatigue syndrome along with taste coming and going.  He is 22 or 23.

PS - wish you were correct!

 

15 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Interesting read.  “Some” people turning into 5%-20% of those infected is a massive difference.  Some could be less than 100 people.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

This is good news.  We have a trip planned Feb 2022 and the boards regarding travel to Australia and NZ aren't hopeful at all.  I read they have closed their borders for the most part already through 2021 but I am not sure if that is legitimate news or just people "talking".

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21 minutes ago, jagoffee said:

 

Interesting read.  “Some” people turning into 5%-20% of those infected is a massive difference.  Some could be less than 100 people.

Actually far more than some.

 

Have seen different studies ranging from 10% to the University of Washington's study of 30%. So we are not talking about hundreds but instead talking about millions.

 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210219/a-third-of-covid-survivors-have-long-haul-symptoms#1

 

Here is an article talking about long haulers and the vaccine

 

https://www.theverge.com/22266344/covid-vaccine-protection-chronic-long-haul

 

Dine’s best guess is that we’ll see fewer people with long-term symptoms as more people get vaccinated. Right now, the percentage of people who get COVID-19 and end up with long-term symptoms is fairly high — some estimates put it around 10 percent, with others going higher. Duggal also hopes vaccination could cut that number down. “If people are vaccinated, can we drop that number to one to five percent? Can we get it lower? I’m hoping that’s what it is,” she says. “I just don’t know, but I’m hoping it’ll be fewer people.”

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15 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

These mid term effects are not good for those suffering from them.  I think "long-term" is a misnomer at this point since previously infected people at most are 1 year post infection.  So hopefully most of them will recover over time.  To me long-term means years and not months.  Or even worse, life-long effects.

 

The interesting thing will be what happens with the vaccines?    If you are in the 5% who gets mild Covid after the mRNA vaccine are you much less likely to have any lingering or longer term effects?  If so that is a huge advantage in itself of getting vaccinated.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

These mid term effects are not good for those suffering from them.  I think "long-term" is a misnomer at this point since previously infected people at most are 1 year post infection.  So hopefully most of them will recover over time.  To me long-term means years and not months.  Or even worse, life-long effects.

 

The interesting thing will be what happens with the vaccines?    If you are in the 5% who gets mild Covid after the mRNA vaccine are you much less likely to have any lingering or longer term effects?  If so that is a huge advantage in itself of getting vaccinated.

Aren't the vast majority of "long-haulers" were hospitalized?  In the other words the virus has advanced to their lungs and the rest of their body.  If the vaccines allows your body to fight the virus before it gets to the "pneumonia" stage of the virus, the probability of being a long-hauler is greatly reduced.  If you are unvaccinated and caught the virus, get it treated as early as possible.  You may ask your doctor about Ivermectin as an anti-viral for outpatient treatment.  The Federal Government had nixed the drug for treatment for covid-19 earlier, but has changed their mind and have left it up to the patient and doctor.  Currently, this is the drug of choice for outpatient use through many parts of the world.  Do your own research and decide for yourself. 

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