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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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12 hours ago, nocl said:

However, the infections from the original strain may not (there is data showing that people that had the original infection, now getting the vaccine resistant variants) protect against some of the variants.  With some of those variants active in the US (CA and NY for sure) the previously infected number might not help as much as expected.

I think that I am more of a glass half-full person than perhaps you are!😀

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Here is the information are the facts directly from the FDA on the J&J vaccine, also called the Janssen vaccine.   You can read much of this in various media articles but better to get your information from the source.  

 

FDA news release:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine

 

The EUA letter to Janssen:

https://www.fda.gov/media/146303/download

 

Fact sheets for medical providers

https://www.fda.gov/media/146304/download

 

Fact sheet for recipients.

https://www.fda.gov/media/146305/download

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2 hours ago, GerScot said:

Can only be good news that the J+J vaccine has been approved for use in US.

Yes great news!  I think doses (4 million?) start shipping this week.  But not sure where.  I would definitely have no hesitation getting this vaccine if offered to me.  I hope that happens!

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6 hours ago, upwarduk said:

Here, here.

Just hope our UK government decides that they are required, then hopefully they can rescind the following advice:

 

https://www.express.co.uk/travel/cruise/1402897/cruise-holidays-cruises-2021-fco-travel-advice-when-cruise-ship-will-start

Thank you!  I am supposed to cruise from Southampton on Silhouette on Aug 26th with my dw to Norway.

First we need to get vaccinated and wait for the full period to protective immunity.

Second we need to be allowed to fly into the UK without quarantine.

Third we need the cruise line to start cruising in Europe and the UK.

Fourth we need Celebrity to not cancel this cruise.

Fifth we need Norway to vaccinate their population.

Sixth we need Norway to accept cruise ships and allow port stops.

 

Not very optimistic.

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J&J Board member says 20 million vaccine 1-shot doses by the end of March in the US.  That is 20 million more people perhaps fully vaccinated by the end of May - early June with the 28 day waiting period.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/26/jj-board-member-says-20-million-covid-vaccine-doses-will-be-delivered-by-the-end-of-march.html

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On 2/25/2021 at 7:30 PM, nocl said:

To be honest it probably does not matter that much because it 6 to 12 months it will probably be time for a booster.  Maybe as early as 6 months because of variants, not because the initial shots will wear off that soon.

I was thinking this.  Then we start over with jockeying for shots. After my second Moderna shot, I thought thank god this is over. I had all the side effects for at least a week. Even Covid arm.  Don’t really want them again.

Edited by Caymus88
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1 hour ago, Caymus88 said:

I was thinking this.  Then we start over with jockeying for shots. After my second Moderna shot, I thought thank god this is over. I had all the side effects for at least a week. Even Covid arm.  Don’t really want them again.

Mfg capacity will be much higher so the shortage problems will be much smaller.

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15 hours ago, nocl said:

Mfg capacity will be much higher so the shortage problems will be much smaller.

Agree.  And the clinical studies will perhaps be quicker by immuno-equivalency criteria but they probably need to show increased efficacy against the S. Africa strain. 

 

Both Moderna and Pfizer have engineered and produced enough of the S.Africa variant vaccine to start clinical studies.

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/moderna-test-booster-shot-targets-south-african-variant-rcna310

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-initiate-study-part-broad-development

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16 hours ago, Caymus88 said:

I was thinking this.  Then we start over with jockeying for shots. After my second Moderna shot, I thought thank god this is over. I had all the side effects for at least a week. Even Covid arm.  Don’t really want them again.

I have not had a shot yet but hopefully the J&J Janssen vaccine will reach some of us soon.  Hopefully if booster doses are needed (if- not when, at this point) there will be increased capacity of doses to do so this coming fall.  

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2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I have not had a shot yet but hopefully the J&J Janssen vaccine will reach some of us soon.  Hopefully if booster doses are needed (if- not when, at this point) there will be increased capacity of doses to do so this coming fall.  

Supposedly with more people getting vaccinated we will slowly reach herd immunity, at least, the R0 of the virus will be reduced.  Now, if current vaccines can still protect you from serious illness, i.e. hospitalization or worst, the urgency for a booster would be also reduced.  I presume it will be a 1-shot booster.  The demand may be just a little more than the annual flu vaccine.   

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https://www.al.com/news/2021/02/alabama-could-reach-herd-immunity-as-early-as-may-uab-researcher-estimates.html

Ken, this is for you.

I may also be somewhat of a Pollyanna about this, but I think this epidemiologist is spot on for Alabama, and Florida and Georgia and probably most of the Southern states also Southern Ca and NYC, areas that were hit hard.

Other than mask mandate (in Alabama, not any state around us) for public places and basic social distancing rules we have been open for business since July. What I see everyday is people wearing masks where it is required and not masking around their families, which is why it got so bad over the holidays. About 1/3 has definitely had Covid and about 1/3 has protected themselves carefully the entire time and we don't know about the last third - where you move the bar around in that last group tells you where immunity will fall. We will know about the variants in a couple of weeks.

I don't know what has happened in other states, and we don't know how long immunity will hold, but I think we will get good news about that, too, particularly related to the incidence of truly life threatening disease.

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On 2/28/2021 at 6:11 AM, TeeRick said:

I think that I am more of a glass half-full person than perhaps you are!😀

I am very much a half full type person, only more that it is exactly half full not 3/4's not 1/4, but it is what it is.  Whatever the data shows.🙂

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Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2021 at 6:40 AM, TeeRick said:

So to follow up here again...  When is the Pandemic actually over??

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/how-know-when-pandemic-over/618122/

I also heard same "finish line" on the news today.  It doesn't really make sense to me.  It is thought that the pandemic would be "over" when deaths are similar to seasonal flu.  Depending on the year, the flu can claim upwards of 30K to 45K over 5 months....that would be equal to 250-300 deaths a day, yet for COVID they would consider the "end" to be when we have less than 100 deaths per day.  Isn't that 1/3 the amount of seasonal flu deaths? 

Seems almost an impossible goal.

M

Edited by mimbecky
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I rarely watch the Sunday morning news but yesterday did to catch the all important weather update.  I was very surprised to hear the newscaster report that "The US may have Covid under control by the end of March".  Yep, I don't know if the tide has turned but the narrative sure has.  The vaccination process, at least here, is going quite well even considering the week we lost statewide to the winter weather.  I predict by the middle of April there will be advertising/ PSAs on TV, internet and radio to get your vaccine, just like they do in flu season.  That would reflect a lack of demand for the amount of supply

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, cangelmd said:

https://www.al.com/news/2021/02/alabama-could-reach-herd-immunity-as-early-as-may-uab-researcher-estimates.html

Ken, this is for you.

I may also be somewhat of a Pollyanna about this, but I think this epidemiologist is spot on for Alabama, and Florida and Georgia and probably most of the Southern states also Southern Ca and NYC, areas that were hit hard.

Other than mask mandate (in Alabama, not any state around us) for public places and basic social distancing rules we have been open for business since July. What I see everyday is people wearing masks where it is required and not masking around their families, which is why it got so bad over the holidays. About 1/3 has definitely had Covid and about 1/3 has protected themselves carefully the entire time and we don't know about the last third - where you move the bar around in that last group tells you where immunity will fall. We will know about the variants in a couple of weeks.

I don't know what has happened in other states, and we don't know how long immunity will hold, but I think we will get good news about that, too, particularly related to the incidence of truly life threatening disease.

Thanks! My DW and I did our part today and were in line (in our car) for only 4.5 hours this morning with 742 in front of us to get our second Pfizer shot. It sounds like a long time, but 2 of those hours were before they opened. So, all in all, they are definitely starting to master the art of giving mass vaccinations here in Montgomery at around 5 shots per minute.

 

I like the prospects of herd immunity around the May/June timeframe, but I will keep my eye on the JHU chart as I do every morning to see how well we're all doing. Funny thing, this morning for the first time in about a week, the states weren't all green. Hopefully, this was just a bump in the road and the chart gets back to all green again soon, especially since there are no major holidays ahead of us for awhile. 

 

Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

 

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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13 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks! My DW and I did our part today and were in line (in our car) for only 4.5 hours this morning with 742 in front of us to get our second Pfizer shot. It sounds like a long time, but 2 of those hours were before they opened. So, all in all, they are definitely starting to master the art of giving mass vaccinations here in Montgomery at around 5 shots per minute.

 

I like the prospects of herd immunity around the May/June timeframe, but I will keep my eye on the JHU chart as I do every morning to see how well we're all doing. Funny thing, this morning for the first time in about a week, the states weren't all green. Hopefully, this was just a bump in the road and the chart gets back to all green again soon, especially since there are no major holidays ahead of us for awhile. 

 

Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

 

The winter storms week before last really did a number on the medical system logistics, and I think the reporting is somewhat skewed, we will no more at the end of this week - if numbers are going up or still plateaued, that may reflect the variants. Also, will hospitalizations and deaths go up, or just cases - that is more than a week away.

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On 2/27/2021 at 5:29 AM, BOLOCRUISE said:

We don't get flu shots and we won't get the COVID vaccine.  We have traveled by airplane four times during the "pandemic", including internationally.  The protocols by airlines, all-inclusive resorts and condo rentals are fantastic.  None of these entities have ever been so clean and sanitized.  The fact that cruise ships are not sailing is quite ridiculous, with all of the cleaning, sanitizing, and distancing protocols available.  I have never felt so safe from contaminants on airplanes and in resorts/lodging as I do now. 

Ships don't have the sophisticated air circulation and filtering systems of aircraft. They, the ships, certainly don't have HEPA filtering.

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1 hour ago, mimbecky said:

I also heard same "finish line" on the news today.  It doesn't really make sense to me.  It is thought that the pandemic would be "over" when deaths are similar to seasonal flu.  Depending on the year, the flu can claim upwards of 30K to 45K over 5 months....that would be equal to 250-300 deaths a day, yet for COVID they would consider the "end" to be when we have less than 100 deaths per day.  Isn't that 1/3 the amount of seasonal flu deaths? 

Seems almost an impossible goal.

M

We actually have a far more effective set of vaccines against COVID than we do the flu.  While COVID does mutate the strains have a lot more in common that the plethora of the various flu strains.  As a result we have a good shot of actually controlling COVID more than with the flu.  We just need to get a head of it by vaccinations and other infection control means until we get the infection rate dramatically lower with relatively few cases and very limited examples of community spread.

 

It comes down to how many get vaccinated and how soon, as well as continuing to mask and distance until we get the case rates down sufficiently.

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Posted (edited)

I realize folks have mentioned this before, but there are a lot of vaccines coming our way very shortly!! As of today, 76.9 million "doses" of the approved 2 dose vaccines have been given. This is definitely impressive, but enough doses to fully vaccinate 130 million people by the end of March is just awesome!!

 

Moderna, Pfizer and now Johnson & Johnson will deliver enough doses to fully vaccinate 130 million people -- more than one-third of the US population -- by the end of March, the pharmaceutical companies told a House subcommittee last week.

 

Here's when the US will see a lot more vaccine doses - CNN

 

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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I got my second Pfizer vaccine Feb 27th. I had no side effects other than the usual sore arm I get after any vaccine. It lasted about 24-36 hours. I have to admit that I had doubts that Indiana would be very efficient at getting the vaccines out, but from the time I arrived at the vaccine site I was in and out in less than 25 minutes. They are even giving a letter of vaccine certification from the Indiana State Dept of Health in addition to the COVID19 vaccine card.  I got a notification today that Indiana just hit the 1 million vaccines given mark. 

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14 hours ago, lyndarra said:

Ships don't have the sophisticated air circulation and filtering systems of aircraft. They, the ships, certainly don't have HEPA filtering.

 

They'll have HEPA filtering when cruising begins again.  LINK

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https://www.propublica.org/article/covid-vaccine-supply

 

Now for something a little different. I've always been a planner, whether it's vacations or change control at work. After I had been a lab director for several years, I realized I missed my calling - I should have served some time in the military and become a logistics person, I get real geeky about that kind of stuff and I would be a general or a COO by now. Anyway, I found this article interesting, and Ken, you've been holding out on us, they are making those vials in your back yard!

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