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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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2 hours ago, bouhunter said:

All the talk about "a vaccine" is getting silly.  There won't be some magical shot that puts this all behind us in a few months.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-coronavirus-vaccine-won-t-change-the-world-right-away/ar-BB17u7JQ?ocid=msedgdhp

 

I'll go with what Dr. Fauci has said about the vaccines and not some random article that just merely mentions him in passing.  But any viable vaccine will be a good thing and should not be summarily dismissed.

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1 hour ago, markeb said:

 

The article first appeared in the Post yesterday. I'd say it's a very accurate reflection of what most public health professionals would say. It will take time, and the immediate return to normalcy so many on this board are looking for is highly unlikely. Eventually, yes. By Christmas? No.

 

Not politics. Science.

 

Anyone who thinks things will be back to normal before the end of the year is in a fantasy world.  AT BEST, we're looking at this time next year to be somewhat "normal-ish" IF the vaccines work.

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17 hours ago, gerelmx said:

I will wait until the results of the massive applications are known, no matter if the vaccine is Chinese, Russian, American or British. An uncle of mine died years ago when he was a child. He received a smallpox vaccine at school.

Sorry to hear about your uncle.  Rare but not unheard of since the Smallpox vaccine was a "live" virus vaccine.  But the current COVID vaccine approaches are not using competent live replicating viruses.

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12 hours ago, jotjot said:

Word of advice, read the waiver you have to sign. I read the one for DT and got very upset I almost didn't take it . I can understand why someone would not take it .

Possibly not DT?   DT generally refers to diphtheria toxin given in a multi-component vaccine to infants.

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1 hour ago, bouhunter said:

I won't argue with that at all.  But I still think the people who think/hope there will be a miracle vaccine available in a few months to put an end to this are sadly mistaken.

I understand your point for sure.  Developing any new vaccine in a few months is an amazing feat,  or at least I believe so.  Having it approved and available even in limited supply by early 2021 is a bit more amazing.  Having it widely available worldwide in 2021 will be truly amazing.  If this all does happen then the threat of COVID will be reduced but not eliminated, especially not for quite a few years.  So I agree with you.  No quick miracle.  But very good science and good intentions.  And perhaps a miracle for those who choose to get vaccinated.

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1 hour ago, K.T.B. said:

 

Anyone who thinks things will be back to normal before the end of the year is in a fantasy world.  AT BEST, we're looking at this time next year to be somewhat "normal-ish" IF the vaccines work.

If the vaccine to fairly effective (lets say 75% or better) then by the end of 2021 things should be returning to somewhat normal. Depending upon how many get the vaccine, if people stick to distancing (even those that have gotten vaccinated) until the virus level drops significantly.

 

However, keep in mind that the US, and the developed countries will probably get a good supply (relative to population size) earlier than the poorer 3rd world countries. So you will probably still see outbreaks in areas around the world in 2022.

Edited by npcl
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39 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I understand your point for sure.  Developing any new vaccine in a few months is an amazing feat,  or at least I believe so.  Having it approved and available even in limited supply by early 2021 is a bit more amazing.  Having it widely available worldwide in 2021 will be truly amazing.  If this all does happen then the threat of COVID will be reduced but not eliminated, especially not for quite a few years.  So I agree with you.  No quick miracle.  But very good science and good intentions.  And perhaps a miracle for those who choose to get vaccinated.

Talking with some former colleagues I am pretty optimistic about having an effective vaccine by the end of the year with good supply next year.

 

However, having worked with several products that have been aimed at dealing with the immune system (primarily t-cells) acting badly  and with the behavior of COVID-19 with inflammation response, I still have concerns over a potential Dengue Fever like behavior. Unfortunately no way to really test what happens during second infection or with an infection after someone has been vaccinated and lets immunity wane (does not get boosters at required interval). I know it is a small probability event, but it is the kind of concern that used to keep me awake back when I was working on such things.

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7 hours ago, bouhunter said:

All the talk about "a vaccine" is getting silly.  There won't be some magical shot that puts this all behind us in a few months.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-coronavirus-vaccine-won-t-change-the-world-right-away/ar-BB17u7JQ?ocid=msedgdhp

I have little confidence in an article that starts off by stating that phase III testing started 2 weeks ago and fails to note that the U of Oxford phase III test in South America started back on June 23rd.  Nor is my confidence improved by the article bringing up live vaccine problems with the Salk vaccine, when the current vaccines under development have nothing to do with a live vaccine.

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On 8/2/2020 at 2:51 PM, kearney said:

My son taught me something a little while ago that helped quite a bit when I would want to unload on someone for posting something I totally disagreed with. Here's what he said.

 

Type up a draft response with everything you would want to say. I mean unload it all. Then check your grammar and edit it until it's exactly what you want to say. Then, once you have it just right with all of your emotions included, DELETE it. You will be surprised how relaxed you will become once it disappears from the screen. I've done that a few times and just before hitting Submit, I think of what my son told me. Just a thought ...

Very good advice -- Your son sounds like a very intelligent person.

On occasion lately his advice would " qualify " on CC .

( I hope I was not the target of your frustrations ??? )

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19 hours ago, jotjot said:

Word of advice, read the waiver you have to sign. I read the one for DT and got very upset I almost didn't take it . I can understand why someone would not take it .

Read the possible side effects from virtually any drug you take, prescription or otherwise, and you will not feel comfortable taking that either. It's about weighing the risks.  Are you more at risk taking a new Covid-19 vaccine, or are you more at risk catching the disease and dying or being permanently disabled from it?  Those are the questions people need to ask themselves.  If I were 30 years old and in good health I might be inclined to wait.  At 68 years old, I would likely be more inclined to take the risk of side effects than to risk getting the disease.

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4 minutes ago, Covepointcruiser said:

It was announced today that  Russia  will be vaccinating all citizens for COVID 19 in October 2020.    Guess we will have loads of Russians competing for cruises as they will have the vaccine first.

I guess that's one way to do a stage 2/3 trial. Just give it to everyone and see what happens.

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9 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

 If I were 30 years old and in good health I might be inclined to wait.  At 68 years old, I would likely be more inclined to take the risk of side effects than to risk getting the disease.

At 61 I'm prepared to risk getting the virus. Never had a day off sick in over 20 years. Got Shingles last December and that was just a irritation (pardon the pun) for me carrying on working. 

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1 hour ago, Esprit said:

At 61 I'm prepared to risk getting the virus. Never had a day off sick in over 20 years. Got Shingles last December and that was just a irritation (pardon the pun) for me carrying on working. 

I used to feel the same way toward the beginning, but quickly decided having seen friends younger than me (and I'm younger than you) struggle with it.  It is not something I want to risk.  I'd also point out that the view you express is actually very selfish because you could pass it on to someone who maybe is less able to cope with getting it.

 

Phil  

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1 hour ago, excitedofharpenden said:

I used to feel the same way toward the beginning, but quickly decided having seen friends younger than me (and I'm younger than you) struggle with it.  It is not something I want to risk.  I'd also point out that the view you express is actually very selfish because you could pass it on to someone who maybe is less able to cope with getting it.

 

Phil  

Fair point Phil

Do wonder if I've already had it when I was skiing in Ischgl (Austria) last February. I was quite unwell for a week (started on my last day in Austria). Turns out Ischgl was "Ground Zero" for Corona in Europe and the resort was the first in Austria to shut down (and go into lockdown) two weeks after we left.

We are flying to Madrid this Thursday and I will abide by the rules requiring us to self isolate. Rest assured.

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39 minutes ago, Esprit said:

Fair point Phil

Do wonder if I've already had it when I was skiing in Ischgl (Austria) last February. I was quite unwell for a week (started on my last day in Austria). Turns out Ischgl was "Ground Zero" for Corona in Europe and the resort was the first in Austria to shut down (and go into lockdown) two weeks after we left.

We are flying to Madrid this Thursday and I will abide by the rules requiring us to self isolate. Rest assured.

I have a few friends that have had it since March.  One thought she'd picked it up in the supermarket as that is the only place she'd been out of home to go.  Had terrible breathing difficulties and is now in hospital with a collapsed lung and having an operation on Friday🤞  Each one of my friends has been so differently affected and from all age groups.  Sadly one has died from it.  Just not something to mess with.  Just keep safe and healthy.

 

Phil

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Esprit and excitedofharpenden. Your very polite back and forth this morning triggered something that is still missing in a lot of public (including here) technical discussions on the various vaccine candidates. Probably because there are several of us with different experiences and comfort levels on those processes, and people tend to go to their comfort levels.

 

There's a huge missing strategic communication piece. It may be too early to really fully ramp that up, but I'm "hoping" (hope isn't a methodology) it's underway. There's an awful lot of ugly sausage making occuring in public (like the early discussions of priority groups), and that will ultimately be part of this, but it's not too early to start discussing what the goals of a coordinated immunization program would look like and why. There are multiple strategies with different reasons, such as preventing disease in high risk/high impact groups, rapidly increasing immunity to control transmission, etc. The messaging to each of those groups will be very important, and some of it at least will depend on the performance of the actual vaccines.

 

It generally takes more effort to convince those that don't perceive themselves at much risk of the potential benefits to their friends, neighbors, and the general population of getting vaccinated as part of a global "buffer" against sustained transmission (see measles). And, many of the ongoing controls, such as masks and social distancing, add to the effectiveness of a vaccine program until we eventually hit critical mass. Not to mention the potential disappointment of some in the most at risk groups if there are contraindications to vaccination or a high chance of vaccine failure.

 

Honestly, I'd like to see the first of that start coming out soon, but given a lot of global realities in 2020, and keeping politics aside, I don't know who will do it...

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6 minutes ago, markeb said:

Esprit and excitedofharpenden. Your very polite back and forth this morning triggered something that is still missing in a lot of public (including here) technical discussions on the various vaccine candidates. Probably because there are several of us with different experiences and comfort levels on those processes, and people tend to go to their comfort levels.

 

There's a huge missing strategic communication piece. It may be too early to really fully ramp that up, but I'm "hoping" (hope isn't a methodology) it's underway. There's an awful lot of ugly sausage making occuring in public (like the early discussions of priority groups), and that will ultimately be part of this, but it's not too early to start discussing what the goals of a coordinated immunization program would look like and why. There are multiple strategies with different reasons, such as preventing disease in high risk/high impact groups, rapidly increasing immunity to control transmission, etc. The messaging to each of those groups will be very important, and some of it at least will depend on the performance of the actual vaccines.

 

It generally takes more effort to convince those that don't perceive themselves at much risk of the potential benefits to their friends, neighbors, and the general population of getting vaccinated as part of a global "buffer" against sustained transmission (see measles). And, many of the ongoing controls, such as masks and social distancing, add to the effectiveness of a vaccine program until we eventually hit critical mass. Not to mention the potential disappointment of some in the most at risk groups if there are contraindications to vaccination or a high chance of vaccine failure.

 

Honestly, I'd like to see the first of that start coming out soon, but given a lot of global realities in 2020, and keeping politics aside, I don't know who will do it...

You are of course right on target with your entire post.  But I think the last sentence is truly the issue in particular in the USA.  Even with highly effective vaccines there is continued misinformation, resistance, and outright lack of education.  All we can hope for is that a lot of our population will rise above this if we have a new COVID vaccine.  But highly unlikely that it will be mandatory.  Maybe it will be an easier task to convince people to get a 1 or 2 vaccine shot series than to convince them to wear masks. 

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5 hours ago, Esprit said:

At 61 I'm prepared to risk getting the virus. Never had a day off sick in over 20 years. Got Shingles last December and that was just a irritation (pardon the pun) for me carrying on working. 

I just recently got the new Shingles vaccine Shingrix.  Unlike the previous vaccine, this one is not "live".  But my arm was sore for a day or two.  And I will need a second dose in 2-6 months.  Small price to pay to avoid getting a shingles outbreak- for me anyway.  But I am curious.  Why do you believe that because you have not had a sick day off in 20 years that somehow correlates with you thinking you are safe from becoming sick with COVID if you are exposed?  

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14 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

All we can hope for is that a lot of our population will rise above this if we have a new COVID vaccine.  But highly unlikely that it will be mandatory.  Maybe it will be an easier task to convince people to get a 1 or 2 vaccine shot series than to convince them to wear masks. 

In the US, the universal use of seat belts didn't happen until the Federal Government  tied the individual states seat belt use enforcement to the monies they received from the Federal Highway funds. It may take something like this to mandate universal acceptance of getting vaccinated. 

 

Just because you may think you are not in the higher risk group  for Covid is not the reason why you should get vaccinated when a proven vaccine becomes available.  This past week end one of my neighbors told me her story of her family dealing with Covid. Her daughter is 28 and she has two children 4 years old and 5 months old. They all tested positive for Covid last week but suffered little more than a fever and slight cough.  The local medical authority determined that the daughter got the virus from her 20 year old Nanny who worked  several days before she decided to get tested because she also had a slight fever and cough. This Nanny lives with her 85 year old Grandmother and she gave Covid to her. The Grandmother died last Friday on the way to the hospital because of respiratory failure  It also turned out that the Nanny got Covid while attending a large party with a bunch of 20 year old's who all probably thought they were safe from Covid.  Getting vaccinated may not be needed to save your life but it may save the lives of the loved ones in your family and friends.

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45 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I just recently got the new Shingles vaccine Shingrix.  Unlike the previous vaccine, this one is not "live".  But my arm was sore for a day or two.  And I will need a second dose in 2-6 months.  Small price to pay to avoid getting a shingles outbreak- for me anyway.  But I am curious.  Why do you believe that because you have not had a sick day off in 20 years that somehow correlates with you thinking you are safe from becoming sick with COVID if you are exposed?  

This reminds me that a dear friend on my Eclipse cruise last year told me to get this vaccine. Of course with all that is going on in the world just now I haven't done it, but need to make a point of doing so as shingles can be extremely unpleasant. I remember my dad having it. 

 

Thanks for the reminder. 

 

Phil 

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2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I just recently got the new Shingles vaccine Shingrix.  Unlike the previous vaccine, this one is not "live".  But my arm was sore for a day or two.  And I will need a second dose in 2-6 months.  Small price to pay to avoid getting a shingles outbreak- for me anyway.  But I am curious.  Why do you believe that because you have not had a sick day off in 20 years that somehow correlates with you thinking you are safe from becoming sick with COVID if you are exposed?  

I don't TeeRick

I just try to stay healthy, eat well, but over imbibe with alcohol perhaps!

I try to think positively and love my job.

For my Shingles I was prescribed Aciclovir for a week. Got a funny look from the Pharmacist. Then I looked up the stuff. Turns out it's prescribed for STI's too! :classic_biggrin:

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11 minutes ago, Esprit said:

I don't TeeRick

I just try to stay healthy, eat well, but over imbibe with alcohol perhaps!

I try to think positively and love my job.

For my Shingles I was prescribed Aciclovir for a week. Got a funny look from the Pharmacist. Then I looked up the stuff. Turns out it's prescribed for STI's too! :classic_biggrin:


Yep. And cold sores. All Herpes viruses!

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