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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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24 minutes ago, phoenix_dream said:

Unfortunately, losing weight is so much more complicated that just having a will (or "lack of will") to do it.  Sadly shaming overweight people (and I'm not suggesting you meant to do that) is one of the last discriminations that seems to be acceptable to many.  There are so many reasons, both physical and psychological, that make it very difficult for many to reach a healthy weight.  In fact, the stress and anxiety of the pandemic itself I'm sure created even more issues from those of us struggling to control our eating habits.  Just getting through each day has at times been about the most we could handle.  I do wish as things subside as a country we could make a large push to help people deal with this issue, which as you say is indeed a risk with so many health concerns.

 

Dang. Yes, you are correct about my use of "will" to lose weight. Poor phrasing on my part - thanks for graciously not taking me to task for that! I agree with you completely here. Now where's that D'Oh! emoji...

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

OK I just had Moderna shot #2.  

 

Dr. and Mrs. TeeRick will be ready to travel and cruise in two weeks.  Outstanding!😀

Check back with us tomorrow for the post-jab update.   

Jab #2 is in 2 weeks for me. 

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1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Looks like CDC is willing to play if the cruise lines meet them in the middle. We can hope anyway ...

 

CDC Open to U.S. Cruising This Summer - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

CDC Says Cruises Possible by Mid-Summer as Tensions Boil Over - Bloomberg

That article seems to be leaning toward the pro-cruise side of things as well, citing the difference with hotels and other industries and how the CDC hasn't met their own timeline.   We can only hope. 

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2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

Trying to lose weight is fighting a few million years of evolution. The development of agriculture was just in the last 10,000 years. Before that, people ate as much as possible when food was available to store up reserves for times of famine.

 

We are so sure we are all self-determined, but we are still creatures with instincts developed for our survival. The glut of food in our lives (here in privileged and food-abundant USA, especially)  doesn't mean our biological instinct to eat goes away. This is also why the body reduces its caloric expenditures when someone diets--the survival instinct goes, "Uh oh, save that stored fat! This body is on the verge of starving!" when calorie intake is severely curtailed. Then the reaction is to store more when intake is restored.

As a type 2 diabetic,  I always feel bad when the disease is blamed on people being intentionally  obese...part of the disease affects ability to control weight no mater how hard some people try...diet, exercise, walking etc.. all help but no miracle cures!

 

CONGRATS TEE RICK ON SECOND SHOT!  Hope no side effects..but they may happen with Moderna. Dh had fever, chills, overall aches...lasted a few days

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4 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Looks like CDC is willing to play if the cruise lines meet them in the middle. We can hope anyway ...

 

CDC Open to U.S. Cruising This Summer - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

CDC Says Cruises Possible by Mid-Summer as Tensions Boil Over - Bloomberg

I would think that the CDC would go along with Del Rios plan.  Perhaps we will be sailing NCL.

 

Not sure about the others though.

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2 hours ago, D C said:

That article seems to be leaning toward the pro-cruise side of things as well, citing the difference with hotels and other industries and how the CDC hasn't met their own timeline.   We can only hope. 

 

There's this one too:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/cdc-says-cruises-possible-by-mid-summer-as-tensions-boil-over/ar-BB1fmIxt?ocid=msedgntp

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6 minutes ago, VitaminSea53 said:

To Dr TeeRick or anyone else ‘in the know’, what does it take for these vaccines to move out of Emergency Use Authorization and into regular approved vaccines.  Thanks

 

They'll need to complete their clinical trials, and file a full Biological License Application. Then another data review (they're all on rolling submissions, so that "should" be fairly fast), another review by the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, and then through internal processing within the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), and assuming no issues, licensure (biologics, including vaccines, get licensed, not approved; it's a difference that arguably makes no difference, but don't say that to anyone who's gone through the process).

 

Most of the complete clinical trials had final endpoints this year out to 2022. So that's the long pole right now.

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15 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Looks like CDC is willing to play if the cruise lines meet them in the middle. We can hope anyway ...

 

CDC Open to U.S. Cruising This Summer - Cruise Industry News | Cruise News

 

CDC Says Cruises Possible by Mid-Summer as Tensions Boil Over - Bloomberg

I'm not sure this quote indicates a "meet in the middle" approach.  The CDC just states that they will support a return to cruising provided the lines abide by the 4-phase approach set out last week.  It looks like the ball is back in the lines' court.

 

“CDC is committed to working with the cruise industry and seaport partners to resume cruising following the phased approach outlined in the conditional sailing order,” CDC spokeswoman Jade Fulce said in a response to questions about Carnival. “This goal aligns with the desire to resume passenger operations in the United States expressed by many major cruise ship operators and travelers; hopefully, by mid-summer with restricted revenue sailings.”

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1 hour ago, zitsky said:

I'd be ok with cruising with vaccinated pax and crew and no children.

Yes me too.  I just tried to book Viking offering 8 day cruises around Iceland this summer.  All adults.  Everybody vaccinated.  Every cruise sold out already. ☹️ They just opened them yesterday.

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Well this article is a little disappointing. After hearing about Pfizer being a 91% affective after six months I was hopeful that Moderna would be the same. Maybe I’m not understanding this but it looks like boosters are definitely in the future for us older folks who received the Moderna vaccine

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/91954?xid=nl_covidupdate_2021-04-07&eun=g1620394d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyUpdate_040721&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Daily_News_Update_active

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16 hours ago, TeeRick said:

OK I just had Moderna shot #2.  

 

Dr. and Mrs. TeeRick will be ready to travel and cruise in two weeks.  Outstanding!😀

Really happy for both of you.  My daughter got the J&J last week and my son will get his third shot on the Novavax trial, as part of the crossover,  in two weeks.  This will make us the vaccination poster family 😂😂,  my husband is #teamPfizer and I'm #TeamNovavax 😁.

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5 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

Well this article is a little disappointing. After hearing about Pfizer being a 91% affective after six months I was hopeful that Moderna would be the same. Maybe I’m not understanding this but it looks like boosters are definitely in the future for us older folks who received the Moderna vaccine

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/91954?xid=nl_covidupdate_2021-04-07&eun=g1620394d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyUpdate_040721&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Daily_News_Update_active

The prospect of booster shots doesn't bother me. I go fo my flu shot annually, and going for a yearly COVID booster shot I'd take in stride. That said, the lingering question is will it be annual or will it be more frequent.  Too early to tell.

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6 minutes ago, mimbecky said:

Well this article is a little disappointing. After hearing about Pfizer being a 91% affective after six months I was hopeful that Moderna would be the same. Maybe I’m not understanding this but it looks like boosters are definitely in the future for us older folks who received the Moderna vaccine

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/91954?xid=nl_covidupdate_2021-04-07&eun=g1620394d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyUpdate_040721&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Daily_News_Update_active

 

Maybe. It's going to be more complicated than this. There's one technical, and at least one practical question this can't answer. The technical question is how does declining antibody titers correlate to actual immunity, which is going to be both antibody and cell mediated. The cell mediated component is hard to measure.

 

The practical question is how fast is the response to exposure. Once primed, the body can make a lot of antibodies in a hurry, to either an exposure or a booster. If there's a rapid response on exposure at some point in the future adequate to keep the disease in check, then declining antibodies from the vaccine really won't be a good indicator.

 

Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an initial recommendation for an annual booster until that all gets sorted out better.

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18 hours ago, D C said:

Check back with us tomorrow for the post-jab update.   

Jab #2 is in 2 weeks for me. 

I am doing great actually.  Almost 24 hrs post-jab.  A bit of a sore arm at the injection site.  No other side effects.  

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2 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Maybe. It's going to be more complicated than this. There's one technical, and at least one practical question this can't answer. The technical question is how does declining antibody titers correlate to actual immunity, which is going to be both antibody and cell mediated. The cell mediated component is hard to measure.

 

The practical question is how fast is the response to exposure. Once primed, the body can make a lot of antibodies in a hurry, to either an exposure or a booster. If there's a rapid response on exposure at some point in the future adequate to keep the disease in check, then declining antibodies from the vaccine really won't be a good indicator.

 

Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an initial recommendation for an annual booster until that all gets sorted out better.

Mark, thank you.  We keep pointing this out repeatedly here.  Antibodies will wane over time with no antigen present.  They have a half-life. Normal response.  Actually, activated specific T Cells will also wane.  It is really all about the memory response with any vaccine.  As you point out, if you get a rapid  B Cell (Antibody) and T cell response then you will be protected if you are exposed to the virus again.  And your memory response will likely provide reasonable protection against variants too.  Some older people or immuno-compromised people might have a weakened memory response.  That is also well known.  So yes boosters might be necessary for at least some people.  One other thing that many are overlooking right now.  The 6 month data being reported is for - at least 6 months- since the first vaccines in clinical trials are just being followed now.  The vaccines have not been in people for much longer than that after two doses.  Some of the media reporting of 6 months of data is confusing a lot of people.

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4 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Well this article is a little disappointing. After hearing about Pfizer being a 91% affective after six months I was hopeful that Moderna would be the same. Maybe I’m not understanding this but it looks like boosters are definitely in the future for us older folks who received the Moderna vaccine

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/91954?xid=nl_covidupdate_2021-04-07&eun=g1620394d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyUpdate_040721&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Daily_News_Update_active

TeeRick and Markeb beat me to the punch, but don’t fret too much over this report.

 I do think it is likely that almost everyone will get one booster, both to cover variants and as a booster because we can’t easily measure cellular immunity.

We, all of us, occasionally lose sight of the fact that other vaccines had years of observation before being released, and often had more years of tweaking of dosing after being in widespread use. Optimizing the dosing schedule later, or adding or dropping a booster shot doesn’t mean the vaccine is unsafe or doesn’t work well or was rushed - it just means that only time will give us answers to some of these questions, no good substitute for observation over time.

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2 hours ago, cangelmd said:

TeeRick and Markeb beat me to the punch, but don’t fret too much over this report.

 I do think it is likely that almost everyone will get one booster, both to cover variants and as a booster because we can’t easily measure cellular immunity.

We, all of us, occasionally lose sight of the fact that other vaccines had years of observation before being released, and often had more years of tweaking of dosing after being in widespread use. Optimizing the dosing schedule later, or adding or dropping a booster shot doesn’t mean the vaccine is unsafe or doesn’t work well or was rushed - it just means that only time will give us answers to some of these questions, no good substitute for observation over time.

I think my selfish concern is that my one year mark exactly coincides with our trip to Australia/NZ.  If we need a booster to travel, I hope I can get one. 

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1 hour ago, mimbecky said:

I think my selfish concern is that my one year mark exactly coincides with our trip to Australia/NZ.  If we need a booster to travel, I hope I can get one. 

I have some of the same concerns, my first shot was just before Christmas and my second was January 8. I’m not sure it will be figured out then.

LOL, DH is worried for me because I don’t have a nice card with the cdc logo in the corner- those weren’t available for the very first round. My card has the name of the health system administering the shot

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1 minute ago, cangelmd said:

I have some of the same concerns, my first shot was just before Christmas and my second was January 8. I’m not sure it will be figured out then.

LOL, DH is worried for me because I don’t have a nice card with the cdc logo in the corner- those weren’t available for the very first round. My card has the name of the health system administering the shot

 

My state NC has a website that I can't get access to.  Believe me, I've tried.  But my doctor has a website that shows my innoculation.

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