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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

After our little white CDC card was completed for our second dose, we made a photocopy of both sides and then scanned and saved as a PDF.  Just in case we need to send it to a cruise line at some point.  And having an electronic back up is a way to keep it safe.  We were also advised to take a photo on our phones and save it there in case we ever needed to provide documentation on the spot - like in a port of call.  I also ordered plastic CDC card sleeves - a who bunch of varieties on Amazon.😀

Thanks, Rick, for the suggestions.  I have made copies and just ordered the sleeves from Amazon.  We’ll keep ours with our yellow vaccination cards, plus we’ve had them noted on that card as well.

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I took a photo on my phone as well.  I also support a vaccine registry/passport or whatever you want to call it.  Perhaps like our regular passports, which are voluntary, no one makes you get one, we could make the vaccine registry/passport a voluntary system for those of us that feel comfortable with it.

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9 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Something  I have thought about but haven’t read about too much is that I assume Pfizer and Moderna (probably AZ too) are working on a booster with updates for variants? I would think they/we would want to immunize for variants if possible.

Am I correct that they have recruited or re-recruited people from the original trials  to monitor for waning immunity? Otherwise, the only way to know if a booster to the original strain is needed is if cases start to rise. 
 

I agree that the data and analyses I have seen lean in the direction of Covid looking more like a virus with lifelong or near lifelong immunity from vaccination. I’ve seen one or two experts start to say that, but with lots of caveats. No one in ID or public health is ready to speculate clearly in the media because good news equals do exactly what you want to do - losing sight if the fact that good outcomes are based on vaccination and many many people aren’t vaccinated yet. 
 

I think the evidence points toward Covid gradually disappearing into the great mass of corona viruses and being indistinguishable from a cold for people under 50. But that’s only when virus circulation goes down worldwide and we stop inducing variants. And I could be way way wrong in the end.

They have,  check this gentleman's Twitter profile. He already got his booster shot. https://twitter.com/ichaydon/status/1377693412065898496?s=20

 

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12 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Something  I have thought about but haven’t read about too much is that I assume Pfizer and Moderna (probably AZ too) are working on a booster with updates for variants? I would think they/we would want to immunize for variants if possible.

Am I correct that they have recruited or re-recruited people from the original trials  to monitor for waning immunity? Otherwise, the only way to know if a booster to the original strain is needed is if cases start to rise. 
 

I agree that the data and analyses I have seen lean in the direction of Covid looking more like a virus with lifelong or near lifelong immunity from vaccination. I’ve seen one or two experts start to say that, but with lots of caveats. No one in ID or public health is ready to speculate clearly in the media because good news equals do exactly what you want to do - losing sight if the fact that good outcomes are based on vaccination and many many people aren’t vaccinated yet. 
 

I think the evidence points toward Covid gradually disappearing into the great mass of corona viruses and being indistinguishable from a cold for people under 50. But that’s only when virus circulation goes down worldwide and we stop inducing variants. And I could be way way wrong in the end.

Only 4 locations were picked for the first booster studies for pfizer (ours was not one)  but we were told that we will at some point be part of the later phase of the  booster study, more than likely in the fall...  on another happy note, DH has been fully vaccinated for about 5 months now & still shows good reaction to IGG test :)

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Posted (edited)
On 4/8/2021 at 2:03 AM, nocl said:

The main thing I am watching is for more information on the Astra Zeneca vaccine and variants with E484K mutation.  The trial in South Africa indicated poor efficacy against one of those variants.

 

Problem is that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is being used in many places.  From what I have read the main reason why the UK is maintaining travel restrictions is to try and keep those variants out of the country.

 

India, whose primary vaccine is Astra Zeneca,  is having major increase in cases and there are known variants with the E484K mutation circulating there.  However they are in single digits in the percentage of people vaccinated so unclear if they are seeing those vaccinated getting infected or not.

 

Depending upon how this works out it may mean that the countries that are heavily dependent upon that vaccine might keep travel restrictions in place longer.

Also read Peru is experiencing really high rates of covid even though they have a good vaccination rate. Not sure which jab they are using, Chinese one? 

Rates in UK are falling rapidly, roughly fifty/fifty with PZ and AZ 

Edited by sgmn
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37 minutes ago, sgmn said:

Also read Peru is experiencing really high rates of covid even though they have a good vaccination rate. Not sure which jab they are using, Chinese one? 

Rates in UK are falling rapidly, roughly fifty/fifty with PZ and AZ 

Sorry Chile not Peru 🙄

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They have started the COVID virus challenge study in the UK in young healthy volunteers.  First step is to expose them to virus to find out how much to use.  Eventually vaccines (or drugs) will be used in these challenge studies.  Anybody want to volunteer?😀

 

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/218294/first-volunteers-covid-19-human-challenge-study/

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I came across this web page from the American Academy of Pediatrics.  It is the best summary (state by state) I have seen for COVID infections and disease in children.  I thought I would post here since we are very recently discussing the need for children to be vaccinated along with passengers and crew on the upcoming cruises that were announced.

 

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I came across this web page from the American Academy of Pediatrics.  It is the best summary (state by state) I have seen for COVID infections and disease in children.  I thought I would post here since we are very recently discussing the need for children to be vaccinated along with passengers and crew on the upcoming cruises that were announced.

 

https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

 

I don't think this data is very relevant anymore.

 

It seems the new variants may hit children harder than the original strain.

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20 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I don't think this data is very relevant anymore.

 

It seems the new variants may hit children harder than the original strain.

This is a pretty good source of data to date.  What you say might be true enough but we might also be seeing the change in data as adults get vaccinated.  I'd like to see if the UK variant was more infectious in children in the UK.  

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40 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I don't think this data is very relevant anymore.

 

It seems the new variants may hit children harder than the original strain.

Looked at some data on this and it is conflicting and still maturing since the data is almost essentially real time data. Most of the surge is happening in states that are just now opening. Here, where day cares and schools have been open for months we saw the same pattern - not much spread if any in school, where mask wearing is enforced- lots of spread related to extracurricular activities and teens being teens. Of course that wasn’t with the variants. Variants definitely seem t9 spread faster, and one source in Britain estimated 1/30 positive cases in younger children there led to hospitalization, which is likely more virulent, but not certain yet.

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EMA just announced an investigation into a safety anomaly with the J&J vaccine blood clot associated with low platelet levels (Thrombocytopenia).

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I just think this is cool! We did a B2B around Cuba on the Oceana Sirena back in April 2018 and had a wonderful time and meet some great people. I don't want to get into the politics of it all, but I just thought it was cool Cuba has created and is testing their own vaccines with apparent success so far.

 

Cuba says it's 'betting it safe' with its own Covid vaccine (msn.com) 

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Recieved some great news from my granddaughter today who is 16. She has an appointment for her first Pfizer shot next Tuesday! Adding that to our son getting his first Moderna shot this past Friday along his wife getting her second Moderna shot earlier in the week, we can now all safely go on a family cruise again. It's amazing how much stress disappears once your family members are able to get vaccinated as well!  😁

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Here is a recent journal publication on lingering COVID symptoms at 8 months - with health care workers (median age 43) who had mild cases.  Mainly fatigue, loss of taste and smell, and shortness of breath.  To those of you that know people who decide not to get a vaccine because they think they are young and healthy and don't need one, tell them about this.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778528

 

 

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18 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Here is a recent journal publication on lingering COVID symptoms at 8 months - with health care workers (median age 43) who had mild cases.  Mainly fatigue, loss of taste and smell, and shortness of breath.  To those of you that know people who decide not to get a vaccine because they think they are young and healthy and don't need one, tell them about this.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778528

 

 

You are so right on, my next door neighbor is a 40 somthing health care worker who had Covid 2 times last year. The first case left her with permanent lung damage and a loss of taste that is slowly improving.  She couldn't wait to get her vaccination in January.  

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7 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

You are so right on, my next door neighbor is a 40 somthing health care worker who had Covid 2 times last year. The first case left her with permanent lung damage and a loss of taste that is slowly improving.  She couldn't wait to get her vaccination in January.  

Even though I personally spent a career working on developing vaccines, I still have close family members who to this point have decided not to get vaccinated.  One is a health care worker in her early 50's exposed to other home care workers and nurses every day.   As does my brother and two of my brother-in-laws.  I have tried to convince all of them to get vaccinated. I have found that although all are educated and successful, their understanding of even basic science and medicine is minimal at best. It is a source of frustration to me.  But ultimately their decisions.  

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8 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Even though I personally spent a career working on developing vaccines, I still have close family members who to this point have decided not to get vaccinated.  One is a health care worker in her early 50's exposed to other home care workers and nurses every day.   As does my brother and two of my brother-in-laws.  I have tried to convince all of them to get vaccinated. I have found that although all are educated and successful, their understanding of even basic science and medicine is minimal at best. It is a source of frustration to me.  But ultimately their decisions.  

My two sisters are historically anti-vaxxers who both got Covid vaccinated because they want to travel again and like my wife and I are booked on September cruises.  I say get stuck or stay stuck at home.

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There has been some recent data released on the lower efficacy of China's Sinovac COVID vaccine called CoronaVac.  This info has been tightly controlled so it was unusual for a Chinese official to comment.

https://apnews.com/article/beijing-immunizations-chengdu-coronavirus-pandemic-china-675bcb6b5710c7329823148ffbff6ef9

 

The Sinovac Covid vaccine is unlike other approved vaccines from a technology standpoint.  It is an inactivated version of the actual SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. 

 

Here is one potential issue for cruising as many crew members come from some of these countries:

 

"Several Asian countries including Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines have signed deals with Sinovac, and in January 2021 Indonesia began rolling out its mass vaccination campaign with their vaccine."  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787

 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-sinovac-vaccine-efficacy-effective-against-covid-with-symptoms-coronavac-2021-4

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-11/sinovac-shot-cuts-risk-of-symptomatic-covid-in-half-in-key-study

Edited by TeeRick
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Recent study from Israel (not yet reviewed and published) shows break through cases of S. Africa variant post vaccination.  This is in conflict with other Israel data released last week by Pfizer.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/covid-variant-from-south-africa-was-able-to-break-through-pfizer-vaccine-in-israeli-study.html

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43 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Recent study from Israel (not yet reviewed and published) shows break through cases of S. Africa variant post vaccination.  This is in conflict with other Israel data released last week by Pfizer.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/covid-variant-from-south-africa-was-able-to-break-through-pfizer-vaccine-in-israeli-study.html

 

So it's another nasal swab PCR study? Did anyone actually get sick? Was the virus viable?

 

I get this and it's important, but those questions are becoming equally important. And the big quote of 8X more prevalent, with a quote that we expected 1 and saw 8? Out of 150 total swabs (apparently)? If that's what they mean, I have serious doubts that's statistically significant. 

 

Grumpy old man on a Monday morning! I'm staring at a crashed screen from MLB where I'm supposed to be able to trade my cancelled Nats tickets for an actual game now that DC has expanded attendance. First time in the park since Game 5 of the 2019 World Series!

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4 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

So it's another nasal swab PCR study? Did anyone actually get sick? Was the virus viable?

 

I get this and it's important, but those questions are becoming equally important. And the big quote of 8X more prevalent, with a quote that we expected 1 and saw 8? Out of 150 total swabs (apparently)? If that's what they mean, I have serious doubts that's statistically significant. 

 

Grumpy old man on a Monday morning! I'm staring at a crashed screen from MLB where I'm supposed to be able to trade my cancelled Nats tickets for an actual game now that DC has expanded attendance. First time in the park since Game 5 of the 2019 World Series!

Yes all relevant questions.  The study will hopefully be reviewed and published with those answers.  The preprint does not address hospitalizations at all.  And also admits that some of the data comes after only 1 dose of vaccine.  It just appears to look at virus-positives in the population with no further indication of disease. 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1.full-text

 

Of course this is getting huge negative play in the media today.  The Pfizer BioNTech reports from last week are not published either but come from phase 3 clinical data and look at severe COVID and hospitalizations.  Here is their result as reported:

 

"In South Africa, where the B.1.351 lineage is prevalent and 800 participants were enrolled, nine cases of COVID-19 were observed, all in the placebo group, indicating vaccine efficacy of 100% (95% CI, [53.5, 100.0]). In an exploratory analysis, the nine strains were sequenced and six of the nine were confirmed to be of the B.1.351 lineage. These data support previous results from immunogenicity studies demonstrating that BNT162b2 induced a robust neutralizing antibody response to the B1.351 variant, and although lower than to the wild-type strain, it does not appear to affect the high observed efficacy against this variant."

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210401005365/en/

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Recent study from Israel (not yet reviewed and published) shows break through cases of S. Africa variant post vaccination.  This is in conflict with other Israel data released last week by Pfizer.

 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/real-world-israeli-data-shows-south-african-variant-better-at-bypassing-vaccine/

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/11/covid-variant-from-south-africa-was-able-to-break-through-pfizer-vaccine-in-israeli-study.html

While the Israeli data does show break through  keep in mind that it is more of a qualitative indicator that the efficacy is probably lower with B.1.351 (which is not a surprise). While the Pfizer data was from a clinical trial the numbers involved were very low but does indicate that efficacy is still probably pretty good.

 

The problem is that with the Chinese vaccine showing poor efficacy and the AZ vaccine not being efficacious against B.1.351 (mild to moderate disease) and since these two vaccines are the most common vaccines in the majority of the third world are we likely to see B.1.351 (and variants will similar mutations) become much more common and wide spread with high case numbers, creating an environment for more and even worse vaccine resistant variants extending the pandemic.

 

 

 

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