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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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3 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Denmark has put a full stop to AstraZeneca, but I've read nothing about them putting a pause on J&J.

Oops  i better  read  the  info again...sorry.

----------'

Yes you are correct.. I was trying to see how other vacines are doing and mixed  them up,  

Edited by hcat
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1 hour ago, mayleeman said:

And we simply cannot get herd immunity if 30 to 50% of thepopulation refuses to get vaccinated or thinks they can wait for herd immunity to protect them. Some Game Theorists need to figure out how to get people over the hesitation. If a lot of people wait for everyone else, it ain't happenin'.

That combined with the vaccine status of the rest of the world may mean international travel restrictions of one form or another (vaccination, testing, quarantine) for a long time depending upon the variants and if any new ones pop up.

 

The most commonly used vaccines outside of the US to date are AZ, and Sinovac.  One is effective against the original and B.117 type variants, but not against B.1.351 type variants.  The other is below the standard that the FDA would be willing to accept.

 

This is a marathon not a sprint.

 

I would much rather be cruising and traveling like normal 2-3 years from now, than be stuck with bubble cruises because of international travel restrictions because we have not done the maximum to control the pandemic.  

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3 hours ago, Mary229 said:

If you look at the state dashboards at weeks’ end they are about as close to 100% as feasible.  There are always going to be handling errors.  I watch Texas but have looked at other states and most are doing an excellent job 

Maybe you can share the link.

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9 hours ago, HskrCrsr said:

 

I guess you're having a different discussion than I am. Fearmongering? Project the future? Isn't this you: "Perhaps it will arise to haunt another generation but it could be we will finished with this when we reach herd immunity. "

 

I was just looking at why polio's not gone and noting a similarity. 

Sure that is broad generalizations with no policy attached.  I will be more careful.  I usually try to link peer reviewed studies to my generalizations but I failed this week.

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I found this general high level discussion on the vaccine rare events from the vectored vaccines (AZ and J&J).   Easy read.

 

 "Scientists have termed the condition “vaccine-induced prothrombotic immune thrombocytopenia” (VIPIT)."  

 

https://www.firstpost.com/health/covid-19-side-effects-what-is-thrombocytopenia-thats-being-linked-to-the-astrazeneca-vaccine-9522601.html

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I am sometimes not a fan of the NYT but their COVID coverage has been excellent over the past year.  The linked article is a very good explanation of vaccines, variants, efficacy and effectiveness, in fact everything we have been discussing on this thread.  It is well written and aimed at the general readership.  Take a look!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/well/live/covid-variants-vaccine.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210416&instance_id=29310&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=55696&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

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19 hours ago, hcat said:

Could  you or someone review  the process that went into the initial  approval of using the J and J in U.S. ...and clarify which agency would have authority to revoke approval.?  Is it being used elsewhere?  How is that working out?

 

 

More than you may want to know about EAUs:

 

https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines

 

https://www.fda.gov/media/143890/download

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17 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I am getting more and more pessimistic.  Looks like in Israel, 60% still is not good enough, as math expected.

To what are you referring in Israel?  It looks relatively fantastic there right now from what I can tell with a "Israel covid cases" search.  

 

 

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The word out of the CDC certainly points towards vaccines being the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

About 5,800 cases observed thus far in about 66 million fully vaccinated people.  0.009%

 

compared with Michigan...

About 54,000 cases observed in just the last week in a population of about 10 million.  One third of the population has either already had covid (~800k), or are fully vaccinated (~2.5m). 

 

Michigan had ~10x the number of cases in only one week in less than 1/6 the number of people.    The vaccinated group sure looks better and more promising to me.   Hopefully the CDC gets on board relative to vaccinations and cruising. 

 

 

***

edit:

Sadly, a good bit of the media is typically negative:

CNN: So far, 5,800 fully vaccinated people have caught Covid anyway in US, CDC says

NYP: Nearly 6K fully vaccinated Americans got COVID-19 – out of 66 million: CDC

 

but thank you WSJ and USN&WR

WSJ: CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients

USN&WR: CDC Documents Very Small Number of Coronavirus Breakthrough Cases in Vaccinated Individuals

 

What a difference in how they try to spin it. 

 

 

 

Edited by D C
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5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

I am sometimes not a fan of the NYT but their COVID coverage has been excellent over the past year.  The linked article is a very good explanation of vaccines, variants, efficacy and effectiveness, in fact everything we have been discussing on this thread.  It is well written and aimed at the general readership.  Take a look!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/well/live/covid-variants-vaccine.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20210416&instance_id=29310&nl=the-morning&regi_id=121450033&segment_id=55696&te=1&user_id=8259b050a84d722b46d85f64ae857bb0

Now if those of us do not subscribe to the NYTimes could actually read it.

 

Anything in the article different from what we have covered here?

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33 minutes ago, D C said:

The word out of the CDC certainly points towards vaccines being the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

About 5,800 cases observed thus far in about 66 million fully vaccinated people.  0.009%

 

compared with Michigan...

About 54,000 cases observed in just the last week in a population of about 10 million.  One third of the population has either already had covid (~800k), or are fully vaccinated (~2.5m). 

 

Michigan had ~10x the number of cases in only one week in less than 1/6 the number of people.    The vaccinated group sure looks better and more promising to me.   Hopefully the CDC gets on board relative to vaccinations and cruising. 

 

 

***

edit:

Sadly, a good bit of the media is typically negative:

CNN: So far, 5,800 fully vaccinated people have caught Covid anyway in US, CDC says

NYP: Nearly 6K fully vaccinated Americans got COVID-19 – out of 66 million: CDC

 

but thank you WSJ and USN&WR

WSJ: CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients

USN&WR: CDC Documents Very Small Number of Coronavirus Breakthrough Cases in Vaccinated Individuals

 

What a difference in how they try to spin it. 

 

 

 

The vaccination performance is certainly indicating consistency with the trial data.

 

Maybe if the cruise lines actually submitted a full plan that included vaccination requirements, and completed the port agreements the CDC might be able to approve it, instead of just sending in an outline in a letter and request to be dropped from the requirements under the CSO.

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51 minutes ago, D C said:

To what are you referring in Israel?  It looks relatively fantastic there right now from what I can tell with a "Israel covid cases" search.  

 

 

Yes Israel is looking pretty good.  Israel is running about 19 cases per million population per day.  For the US to be equivalent we would have to be at about 6500 cases per day.

 

At that level the pandemic would be considered to be pretty much under control domestically.

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1 hour ago, D C said:

To what are you referring in Israel?  It looks relatively fantastic there right now from what I can tell with a "Israel covid cases" search.  

 

 

 

That it's still not enough for herd immunity, that their cases are fairly stable. I was hoping it would drop more towards 0.

 

We will see what happens when they open up more in the coming weeks, maybe I am overly pessimistic.

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11 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

That it's still not enough for herd immunity, that their cases are fairly stable. I was hoping it would drop more towards 0.

 

We will see what happens when they open up more in the coming weeks, maybe I am overly pessimistic.

Maybe not zero but it is dropping off pretty quickly.  If only we were doing as well.

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45 minutes ago, nocl said:

Now if those of us do not subscribe to the NYTimes could actually read it.

 

Anything in the article different from what we have covered here?

Can you not read it via that link?
The NYT has been putting their covid coverage in front of the paywall so anyone can read it.  I'm not a subscriber and the link works fine for me. 

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1 minute ago, D C said:

Can you not read it via that link?
The NYT has been putting their covid coverage in front of the paywall so anyone can read it.  I'm not a subscriber and the link works fine for me. 

Nope usually I can this time I got their subscription firewall.  I will try anonymous and see if it lets me in.

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16 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

That it's still not enough for herd immunity, that their cases are fairly stable. I was hoping it would drop more towards 0.

 

We will see what happens when they open up more in the coming weeks, maybe I am overly pessimistic.

One issue with herd immunity is that we're trying to look at a national scale when it's really a local phenomenon.   We would either need a perfectly homogeneous distribution of vaccinated individuals, or compare high vs low vaccination localities to see if herd immunity is developing.  

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2 minutes ago, D C said:

Can you not read it via that link?
The NYT has been putting their covid coverage in front of the paywall so anyone can read it.  I'm not a subscriber and the link works fine for me. 

It did let me in using an incognito window.

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2 hours ago, nocl said:

Now if those of us do not subscribe to the NYTimes could actually read it.

 

Anything in the article different from what we have covered here?

No you know about everything in this article I'm sure.  But the NYT coverage on any COVID topic has been free for the past year.  No subscription needed.  I do not subscribe.

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25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

No you know about everything in this article I'm sure.  But the NYT coverage on any COVID topic has been free for the past year.  No subscription needed.  I do not subscribe.

Thanks.  For some reason it would not let me in, but I was able to access it via incognito mode.  Maybe I picked up a cookie that they did not like.

 

Looks like a very good article.  Only missing the most recent Pfizer data against B.1.351.

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7 hours ago, Homosassa said:

Thanks.. the chart was easy to follow.

Seems like alot of steps needed to be covered in a compressed time frame

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4 hours ago, hcat said:

Thanks.. the chart was easy to follow.

Seems like alot of steps needed to be covered in a compressed time frame

There was a huge difference with Ted Covid vaccines compared to what happened before.  The FDA usually took weeks to respond.  A covid vaccine request took hours.  Sometimes instant via a verbal answer.

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