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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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32 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Hi everybody just catching up on this thread after several days.  A lot of great discussions and information I see.  Unfortunately I am in the hospital since last week.  Unexpected emergency health situation.  Not COVID.  But it makes me appreciate life and cruising and puts everything in great perspective😀.  I hope to be out soon and back on these boards with all of my friends here.

 

Hope you're doing better soon!

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37 minutes ago, npcl said:

Do not know about cruising, only expect that it might be the soonest that you would see a vaccine having an impact on the numbers. If the trials go well. 

 

Cruising depends upon a lot of issues (case counts in the US, cruise line level of risk, vaccine uptake, cruise line requires for testing or vaccines, etc.) only one of which might be vaccine availability and uptake.  I am certainly not planning on booking any cruises next year, unless a lot of things happen.

Ok, thanks.  Have June 2021 cruise booked to Alaska.  Backup plan is  to do a land trip in the event it doesnt go through.  Staying optimistic that the infection rate will come down.  I know people are worried about flu season but I think people will find mass gatherings less tempting in the cooler weather and hopefully stay home.

Edited by Crazy planning mom
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1 hour ago, Icesk8rReedy said:

I would not count on any sailings the rest of the year.  I am doubting my April 2021 cruise happens.

 

35 minutes ago, npcl said:

Do not know about cruising, only expect that it might be the soonest that you would see a vaccine having an impact on the numbers. If the trials go well. 

 

Cruising depends upon a lot of issues (case counts in the US, cruise line level of risk, vaccine uptake, cruise line requires for testing or vaccines, etc.) only one of which might be vaccine availability and uptake.  I am certainly not planning on booking any cruises next year, unless a lot of things happen.

 

37 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Hi everybody just catching up on this thread after several days.  A lot of great discussions and information I see.  Unfortunately I am in the hospital since last week.  Unexpected emergency health situation.  Not COVID.  But it makes me appreciate life and cruising and puts everything in great perspective😀.  I hope to be out soon and back on these boards with all of my friends here.

Hope you feel better.  Your knowledge is appreciated here.

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6 hours ago, npcl said:

Agree.   The difference with the FDA today is the response time from the FDA is almost immediate instead of months.

Hoping for a vaccine very late this year.  Bigger hope is effective number in the 60%+ area.  RNA viruses change continuously.

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3 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Hi everybody just catching up on this thread after several days.  A lot of great discussions and information I see.  Unfortunately I am in the hospital since last week.  Unexpected emergency health situation.  Not COVID.  But it makes me appreciate life and cruising and puts everything in great perspective😀.  I hope to be out soon and back on these boards with all of my friends here.

I hope that your road to recovery is a short one. I guess this is one time that you can be thankful that you weren't on a cruise at the time.

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On 8/11/2020 at 4:17 PM, Texed said:

 

Mr. Rick,

 

Our thoughts and prayers are with you.  Hopefully, you will be up and around and back to normal quickly.  😊

Thank you!  Home from the hospital this afternoon.

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While Oxford and Moderna  have been launching their phase 3 trials, Pfizer has been more low key in going about their business.  It looks like Pfizer thinks that they will have a good idea if their vaccine works in September and a potential filing for approval in October.

 

Here is hoping for their good luck with the project.

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52 minutes ago, npcl said:

While Oxford and Moderna  have been launching their phase 3 trials, Pfizer has been more low key in going about their business.  It looks like Pfizer thinks that they will have a good idea if their vaccine works in September and a potential filing for approval in October.

 

Here is hoping for their good luck with the project.

Yay Pfizer!!!

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On 8/11/2020 at 12:45 PM, markeb said:

 

By 1Qtr I'm thinking end of March...

 

This is going to sound really bureaucratic, but don't underestimate how long it takes to package, print, and label a few hundred million doses of vaccine, likely in pre-filled syringes (if at all possible). They may gamble and have the inserts printed, but they can't really put them in until they're approved as part of the BLA. And they do change...

 

One advantage of pre-filled syringes is the FDA recognizes you don't have a lot of real estate, so gambling on labeling those is probably less significant, and from what I can interpret pretty standard and unlikely to change by that point. And they can incorporate that into the fill line, since they're already gambling on production. You'll likely never see it as a recipient, but the initial outer boxes will probably literally have an adhesive label; the second lot will be printed on the box.

I remember reading somewhere, “early” in this process, like May, LOL, that there was some talk about actually using multi dose vials to save on the special glass. Do you think there will be an issue with syringe material or supply?

 

My biggest worry still is the number of takers for the vaccine, as much or more than the technological issues

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6 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I remember reading somewhere, “early” in this process, like May, LOL, that there was some talk about actually using multi dose vials to save on the special glass. Do you think there will be an issue with syringe material or supply?

 

My biggest worry still is the number of takers for the vaccine, as much or more than the technological issues

 

I "think" I saw that BARDA had been able to contract for delivery of supplies. I'm reasonably sure the push will be for pre-filled, but I've only had so many clock cycles to look at that! It could be vials and separate syringes.

 

Yeah, take rate is going to be critical to control transmission. You just have to hope that at least everyone willing to wear a mask will take the vaccine, and that gets us to enough to drop the R below 1...

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On 7/10/2020 at 7:02 AM, TeeRick said:

Virologists have not said the vaccine is useless. I spent my career developing vaccines.  There is a tremendous effort worldwide on multiple vaccine approaches. I am encouraged.

It seems to be true that effective vaccines, which protect in terms of years or more, have only

been discovered when there are antibodies with significant longevity. Antibodies seem to be in

very short supply these days. We are even seeing some reinfections. Otherwise, we are talking about

building temporary immunities and will require somewhat frequent re-inoculations. This virus is vicious.

I am told that the research on lasting organ damage is just beginning and that the outcome does

not look pleasant. However, the massive launch into seeking any solution that provides anything

in reduction of symptom intensity to a dreamed of true vaccine is very likely to furnish us with

a plethora of medications that have assorted benefits. I am sure we will all be grateful for any

positive benefits. As a teenager, my grandmother spent years educating me on the 1918 flu experience.

 

I have not worked as a virologist. I did write a comprehensive medical system used by hospitals in all

facets of their functions. I am a professional mathematician, statistician, economist, and more having

worked in 72 industries. Being an expert on none, but having absorbed some expertise, I can see there

is a very serious engineering issue at hand. Modern cruise liners are built for efficiency. As was with

Norovirus outbreaks, all that could be done was to isolate to a cabin. That solution is flawed to the

situation at hand for numbers of reasons. First cabin air recirculates non medically filtered air. There

is a minimum air filtering in the cabin but not in the bath which permits together a retransmission

of the little gems to pass to others. True medical grade filters are what is needed ship wide but

a nightmare of complexity and expense to install effectively. I can say as my family manufactured

such hospital grade filters. Next, positively infected need to be quarantined and in such a manner

that they can be efficiently and safely monitored, and medically treated. An in cabin quarantine

when there are dozens or more is likely to make efficient and effective care a near impossibility.

There is hope for a return to the wonderful cruising days since the 1950's on well over 100

experiences. But despair continually becomes more and more likely as while the outcomes of

some medications will likely have results, the physical structure of these mega liners mathematically 

poses nearly an unsolvable engineering/medical solution to safe high seas travel.

My credentials: I was the research tech that identified the core solution to leukemia remission with the Mayo clinic. Research techs get thanks and the doctors get the Nobel prize.

 

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9 hours ago, beentothere said:

It seems to be true that effective vaccines, which protect in terms of years or more, have only

been discovered when there are antibodies with significant longevity. Antibodies seem to be in

very short supply these days. We are even seeing some reinfections. Otherwise, we are talking about

building temporary immunities and will require somewhat frequent re-inoculations. This virus is vicious.

I am told that the research on lasting organ damage is just beginning and that the outcome does

not look pleasant. However, the massive launch into seeking any solution that provides anything

in reduction of symptom intensity to a dreamed of true vaccine is very likely to furnish us with

a plethora of medications that have assorted benefits. I am sure we will all be grateful for any

positive benefits. As a teenager, my grandmother spent years educating me on the 1918 flu experience.

 

I have not worked as a virologist. I did write a comprehensive medical system used by hospitals in all

facets of their functions. I am a professional mathematician, statistician, economist, and more having

worked in 72 industries. Being an expert on none, but having absorbed some expertise, I can see there

is a very serious engineering issue at hand. Modern cruise liners are built for efficiency. As was with

Norovirus outbreaks, all that could be done was to isolate to a cabin. That solution is flawed to the

situation at hand for numbers of reasons. First cabin air recirculates non medically filtered air. There

is a minimum air filtering in the cabin but not in the bath which permits together a retransmission

of the little gems to pass to others. True medical grade filters are what is needed ship wide but

a nightmare of complexity and expense to install effectively. I can say as my family manufactured

such hospital grade filters. Next, positively infected need to be quarantined and in such a manner

that they can be efficiently and safely monitored, and medically treated. An in cabin quarantine

when there are dozens or more is likely to make efficient and effective care a near impossibility.

There is hope for a return to the wonderful cruising days since the 1950's on well over 100

experiences. But despair continually becomes more and more likely as while the outcomes of

some medications will likely have results, the physical structure of these mega liners mathematically 

poses nearly an unsolvable engineering/medical solution to safe high seas travel.

My credentials: I was the research tech that identified the core solution to leukemia remission with the Mayo clinic. Research techs get thanks and the doctors get the Nobel prize.

 

Go points! That's why it's so important before cruising in the US starts back up that quality vaccines and treatment protocols are readily available. I realize cruising is slowly starting back up in Europe, but that's their decision. However, from our point of view, we will continue to cancel our future bookings until a vaccine is available is the US.

 

As far as modifications to a cruise ship's infrastructure goes, I'm quite confident the powers that be, both US government as well as industry, are doing everything they can to ensure we're all as safe as we can be when cruising does start back up.

 

But it will also be up to the individual passengers to do their part, and it's a big one. Prior to the pandemic, I have to admit the personal hygiene practices of many passengers we observed were somewhat hit-and-miss. It always amazed me that around the 7th day of a cruise, we would start hearing an increase in coughing in the theater. Then around day 10-14, it would become a little more prevalent with a few bronchial coughs thrown into the mix. We would regularly see people bypassing the hand sanitizer dispensers, especially when coming back onboard after spending the day out and about or going into certain eating areas onboard where a crew member wasn't otherwise posted insisting you do.

 

BUT, I will say on our last cruise on the Equinox in March just before it all got shut down, most folks we observed WERE using the hand sanitizers before going into a restaurant or theater as well as on occasion when they were leaving. So, since we are ALL going through this pandemic together, hopefully many of the personal hygiene lessons learned we have picked up during these "uncertain times" will have become common practice once cruising starts back up. One can hope anyway.   

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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When it comes right down to it, anti-vaxxers are going to do and say what they want and if some folks are dumb enough to believe them, then what are you going to do. However, we’ll be right there to get our shots when the time comes. One bright note if proof of a vaccine is required to cruise, there won’t be any anti-vaxxers on the cruise!

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1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

When it comes right down to it, anti-vaxxers are going to do and say what they want and if some folks are dumb enough to believe them, then what are you going to do. However, we’ll be right there to get our shots when the time comes. One bright note if proof of a vaccine is required to cruise, there won’t be any anti-vaxxers on the cruise!

 

Another plus is knowing everyone on board most likely won't get sick.

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Just read this article on Bloomberg.  It indicates vaccine makers are going to take their time and possibly not roll out to the general population until the end of 2021.  While normally being cautious is a good idea and probably good business practice, dont they risk many more deaths by waiting til the end of 2021?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/get-used-to-living-with-covid-19-for-a-long-time-experts-say

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56 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Just read this article on Bloomberg.  It indicates vaccine makers are going to take their time and possibly not roll out to the general population until the end of 2021.  While normally being cautious is a good idea and probably good business practice, dont they risk many more deaths by waiting til the end of 2021?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/get-used-to-living-with-covid-19-for-a-long-time-experts-say

For me as someone over in the peanut gallery, I'm waiting for what happens in October. Hopefully, some of the leaders such as Oxford/AstraZeneca, Moderna and/or Pfizer will be applying for an Emergency Use Authorization with the FDA around that timeframe. If and when that happens, I'll definitely start feeling there is a "slight glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel". But for now at this stage IMHO it's all speculation until the FDA actually issues their first EUA. 

Edited by Ken the cruiser
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1 hour ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Just read this article on Bloomberg.  It indicates vaccine makers are going to take their time and possibly not roll out to the general population until the end of 2021.  While normally being cautious is a good idea and probably good business practice, dont they risk many more deaths by waiting til the end of 2021?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-13/get-used-to-living-with-covid-19-for-a-long-time-experts-say

Keep in mind that the article was written with a number of different views.  If you are looking at things from the direction of the the World Health Organization they are thinking about things in term of the world, not just the developed countries.  From there perspective it will certainly be late next year before you are getting general distribution of the vaccine to the public throughout the world.  In many poorer nations probably even longer.

 

The second element is that the trials are designed to run for a certain period.  If they do not meet criteria sooner then they will certainly run that long, such as the 12 months listed.  However, if they are getting sufficient cases in the tested population, which they should in an outbreak of this size in the US, then once the number of cases is reached they will break the blind and see the results.

 

Also even if the blinds are broken, the trials will continue to run because there is additional health and safety information that is important to be gathered from the trial population.

 

Bottom line they are going to do what the science dictates they should do.  The virus and the science will drive the timeline, it is not a matter of them "taking their time", it is a matter of good science and good clinical practice.

 

That said I doubt that if the trials are successful and the vaccine is both safe and effective it will be available in the US to the general public earlier than the end of 2021.

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8 minutes ago, npcl said:

Keep in mind that the article was written with a number of different views.  If you are looking at things from the direction of the the World Health Organization they are thinking about things in term of the world, not just the developed countries.  From there perspective it will certainly be late next year before you are getting general distribution of the vaccine to the public throughout the world.  In many poorer nations probably even longer.

 

The second element is that the trials are designed to run for a certain period.  If they do not meet criteria sooner then they will certainly run that long, such as the 12 months listed.  However, if they are getting sufficient cases in the tested population, which they should in an outbreak of this size in the US, then once the number of cases is reached they will break the blind and see the results.

 

Also even if the blinds are broken, the trials will continue to run because there is additional health and safety information that is important to be gathered from the trial population.

 

Bottom line they are going to do what the science dictates they should do.  The virus and the science will drive the timeline, it is not a matter of them "taking their time", it is a matter of good science and good clinical practice.

 

That said I doubt that if the trials are successful and the vaccine is both safe and effective it will be available in the US to the general public earlier than the end of 2021.

Thank you for your response.  Would you say that it will be unsafe to ride in an airplane or take a cruise until 2022 then?

Hoping to see Alaska one way or another next June.

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