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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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13 minutes ago, barbels said:

I could easily imagine a federal vaccine requirement and I hope we will have an effective vaccine to mandate.  The anti vaxxers put the rest of us at risk.

I will certainly take a vaccine if one is available.  In fact, if one is available, I expect that to fly internationally, the airlines could make it mandatory or other countries would make it mandatory for admission.

However, I am opposed to a mandatory vaccine in this country.   I suppose if the disease was more deadly, like the Plague or Ebola, a mandatory vaccine would be proper, but this virus has a very low fatality rate.

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1 hour ago, UnorigionalName said:

I find it a little unsavory that there's a segment of the population that hopes that the vaccine fails and that millions upon millions of people die, just so they can have some smug self satisfaction in their past and current actions.

 

Curious how you came to this interesting conclusion.  

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34 minutes ago, barbels said:

I could easily imagine a federal vaccine requirement and I hope we will have an effective vaccine to mandate.  The anti vaxxers put the rest of us at risk.

No one knows of course, but my opinion is that it will not be mandated by the government.  Perhaps by the cruise lines (at least initially) and/or the airlines but not overall.  If it were to be "required" in the sense that children must have it to start school for example, like certain other vaccines, there will always be exceptions made for a variety of reasons.  Yes, it is a shame that the anti-vaxxers put others at risk.  There are some people who cannot take vaccines for various health reasons, as well as newborns, and their lives are endangered by these uneducated people.  In most cases, I think many of those folks truly and honestly believe the vaccines are more dangerous than the disease.  Then of course there is also the smaller minority who just don't give a hoot about other people and refuse to be 'told what to do'.  

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23 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

We sure hope so. We are in our late 60s, and had the measles and mumps when we were little, but we just got a MMR vaccine at our local pharmacy because everything we read was really positive towards reducing the affects of COVID if we get it, which so far we've been able to avoid. But we figure it's going to take a readily available vaccine before cruising will start up again.

 

So far we've heard positive things about AstraZenica and now Pfizer, who are both hoping to start distributing a vaccine in the October time frame if all goes well in their stage 3 testing starting later this month and, of course for US folks, CDC subsequently gives them the go ahead. Here's hoping to their success as we really miss going on cruises!!!

Phase III clinical testing by the University of Oxford, in partnership with AstraZenica, actually began back on June 20th in Brazil with an expectation of an eventual 5000 participants in Brazil.  Plans also include additional Phase III testing in the UK and the US.

Edited by NantahalaCruiser
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So, if effective vaccine emerges and is cheaply available to all, once my family is inoculated do I care if some opt out?  I am safe.  They are only putting themselves at risk.  At that point cruise lines shouldn't care either.  Just add Covid to the sail at your own risk disclaimer and charge astronomical fees for covid related sick bay visits.

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17 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

So, if effective vaccine emerges and is cheaply available to all, once my family is inoculated do I care if some opt out?  I am safe.  They are only putting themselves at risk.  At that point cruise lines shouldn't care either.  Just add Covid to the sail at your own risk disclaimer and charge astronomical fees for covid related sick bay visits.

The reason you should care is that vaccines are not 100% effective, so your family might or might not be  protected by the vaccine; and you might eventually be more protected by herd immunity if a vast majority of the population were to be inoculated.

 

And your last sentence touches on one of the biggest concerns many of us have about future cruising - what policies will cruise lines adopt to handle on-board COVID-19 cases.  Will just one positive on-board case cause ports to block ships from disembarking?  Will ships again need to be quarantined for a couple of weeks?  Until these port and ship policies are defined, we will not be cruising - even with an effective vaccine.

Edited by NantahalaCruiser
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26 minutes ago, NantahalaCruiser said:

Phase III clinical testing by the University of Oxford, in partnership with AstraZenica, actually began back on June 20th in Brazil with an expectation of an eventual 5000 participants in Brazil.  Plans also include additional Phase III testing in the UK and the US.

Cool! Hopefully all is going great as Brazil along with the rest of the world could use some good news with regards to an effective vaccine! 

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I'm a big fan of bullet points:

1)  Most effective vaccine is only 95% effective

2)  If a somewhat effective vaccine is created, it will go to the venerable first, healthy folks will be last, will take some time, probably at least two years

3)  There are many who won't get the vaccine, whether its for political reasons, they think its a hoax or they're anti-vaxxers

4)  A small % of underground doctors may commit fraud by falsifying documentation to say they vaccinated those who fall into #3

5)  This may mutate like the flu

6)  If you have the antibodies, are you "forever" immune?  Due to the margin of error of the antibody testing, no one seems to definitively know

7)  Even the Covid 19 test, which currently takes up to a week to get results isn't 100% accurate

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6 hours ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Vaccines usually only cover 25% to 65% of the population affectively. Could you IMAGINE mandating a federal vaccine requirement?! Insanity!

 

I believe when the polio vaccine came out there was one on the state level (basing that on faulty memory, YMMV).  And I can see cruise lines mandating vaccines for Covid if you're to sail on them.  And, yes, they do have that right to do so when it's a safety issue.  Just like some countries mandate you get certain shots prior to visiting them.

 

Personally speaking the moment a vaccine is available, I'll be in line to get it.  Period.

Edited by K.T.B.
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I have a definite underlying condition, a heart transplant and I am on immunosuppressant medications. I will wait a few months before taking the vaccine. I remember the "mandated" vaccine for the flu of 1976. It was a fiasco. The rush for a vaccine culminated in using a live virus and causing a number of health problems including Guillain-Barre  syndrome in hundreds of people. 

 

Take care,

Mike

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The most vaccines that I received at one time was when I entered the US Army.  It was in 1972 and the worst one was the flu vaccine.  I have had the annual flu vaccine more recently and it was much better.

 

The scientists all say that vaccines generally don't cause health problems, but many physicians (pediatricians) will space out the vaccines for small children, since giving many vaccines all at one time may not be good.

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22 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Virologists have not said the vaccine is useless. I spent my career developing vaccines.  There is a tremendous effort worldwide on multiple vaccine approaches. I am encouraged.

Tee:  Please reread my post.  The vaccine is useless unless it is properly prepared, distributed and used to vaccinate.  That statement holds.  There are many who are already claiming they will  not take the vaccination, if/when available.  That put is success and those of us who might take the vaccination at risk.

Edited by Ride-The-Waves
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My fear is that the FDA will be pressured to approve something quickly just like they have been pressured to approve hydroxychloroquine. I don’t know if it is a valid concern, but it is in the back of my mind.

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I do not think that at least in the US anyway that a successful COVID vaccine will be mandatory.  And it would be regulated at the state health department level.  Not the Federal level.  A Federal mandatory vaccine would be unprecedented and not easy to monitor and enforce.  And what about non-US citizens in the US,  Visa holders and dare I say the large non-legal population in the US many who will be afraid to register for any vaccination effort? A good portion of our population will not even wear masks even if mandated by some state governors so I would not expect everybody to comply with vaccine mandates.  It will become another Bill of Rights thing.  It is very possible that public schools and public universities could require it to attend.  Other vaccines have these requirements but a portion of the population still refuse to vaccinate and home school.  So we can only make our own decisions and choose to protect ourselves and our families (or not). 

 

For travel, cruising, port entry there may in fact be mandates by individual countries.  But then people can make their own decision about those things.  If important enough to them they will get vaccinated.  In any scenario, initial doses of a vaccine will likely go to people most at risk, first responders and health care workers.  Maybe also to people required to travel for employment purposes.  It will not be likely that we casual cruisers will be near the top of the list.  Also the vaccine might need to be in multiple shots with a priming period and a boosting period (or two).  Even with a vaccine it might take a year or more to be fully protected in that scenario.  So there is a very long way to go.

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2 minutes ago, Babr said:

My fear is that the FDA will be pressured to approve something quickly just like they have been pressured to approve hydroxychloroquine. I don’t know if it is a valid concern, but it is in the back of my mind.

The FDA is not the only regulatory authority involved.  Other countries have their own approval process.  It is a world wide vaccine.  The FDA will not likely approve something that the rest of the world has an issue with.  And if they did approve it, and say the EU EMEA did not, then we are back to square one.  You would not be able to travel or cruise in Europe even if vaccinated in the US if they do not think the vaccine is effective.

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20 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

I believe what he was trying to say is simply developing a vaccine doesn't help unless people are willing to take it.

Of course it helps those willing to get vaccinated.  

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1 hour ago, 4774Papa said:

The most vaccines that I received at one time was when I entered the US Army.  It was in 1972 and the worst one was the flu vaccine.  I have had the annual flu vaccine more recently and it was much better.

 

The scientists all say that vaccines generally don't cause health problems, but many physicians (pediatricians) will space out the vaccines for small children, since giving many vaccines all at one time may not be good.

 

You received a weakened strain of the flu while under a new grueling schedule and immense stress (entering the Army).  There is zero evidence that "spacing out" vaccines does anything other than leave the recipient at risk longer.  There's decades of research by medical professionals that the current vaccine schedule is the best one out there.

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21 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Thank you Teerick! I prepared a response and it didn’t save properly.

It is not helpful for people to make such blanket statements when so many people in this country are already leery about vaccines.

This virus is not like HIV or flu and while a successful vaccine may require more than 1 dose or a booster, particularly the first generation vaccine, I think there is a reasonable possibility that one of the candidates may confer lifelong immunity - we just don’t know yet. But needing yearly booster shots is a small price to prevent deaths and return economies to a semblance of normal.

cangelmd and others who follow the science closely- Take a look at some recent published immunological data on T-cell responses in COVID cases (severe vs mild).  Everybody is focused on antibodies but CTL's and primed helper T-cells might be the key - as they are for protection against many viruses. There is some evidence and speculation that many of the people who are asymptomatic or have very mild cases are because they have primed T-cells against other circulating coronaviruses that cause colds.  A lot of T-cell epitopes are highly conserved and not prone to mutation.  Sorry everybody for getting too technical but this means a lot for a successful vaccine approach.

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18 hours ago, Fouremco said:

That was my impression too. It's like car seat belts: totally useless unless they are worn.

Reminds me of the Ottawa hockey team-- they score one goal, have 5 scored against them-- no worries, it's a work in progress .

When NHL hockey starts again they won't have to have social distancing at the arena with 5500 fans that seats 20,000.

 

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7 minutes ago, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

You received a weakened strain of the flu while under a new grueling schedule and immense stress (entering the Army).  There is zero evidence that "spacing out" vaccines does anything other than leave the recipient at risk longer.  There's decades of research by medical professionals that the current vaccine schedule is the best one out there.

Yes for pediatric vaccines there is a required schedule well researched.  Also in recent years a number of vaccines have been put in a single administration dose to reduce the number of shots in kids.

 

For example:  Diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis vaccine (also known as DTaP) combined with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (also known as IPV) is a combination vaccine that is given to protect against infections caused by diphtheria, tetanus (lockjaw), pertussis (whooping cough), and poliovirus.

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1 minute ago, TeeRick said:

cangelmd and others who follow the science closely- Take a look at some recent published immunological data on T-cell responses in COVID cases (severe vs mild).  Everybody is focused on antibodies but CTL's and primed helper T-cells might be the key - as they are for protection against many viruses. There is some evidence and speculation that many of the people who are asymptomatic or have very mild cases are because they have primed T-cells against other circulating coronaviruses that cause colds.  A lot of T-cell epitopes are highly conserved and not prone to mutation.  Sorry everybody for getting too technical but this means a lot for a successful vaccine approach.

 

I wish there is more focus on blood types as the few studies studies seem to suggest that those with A blood types have the worst symptoms while those with O blood types seems to have the least symptoms.  B tends to be neutral and AB, which is the most rare, greatly varies by study.  No study has pointed out whether the blood type is negative or positive if that makes any difference.

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Just now, NutsAboutGolf said:

 

I wish there is more focus on blood types as the few studies studies seem to suggest that those with A blood types have the worst symptoms while those with O blood types seems to have the least symptoms.  B tends to be neutral and AB, which is the most rare, greatly varies by study.  No study has pointed out whether the blood type is negative or positive if that makes any difference.

Yes interesting info but hard to interpret- maybe another one of those things that will be known after some period of time. 

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13 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes for pediatric vaccines there is a required schedule well researched.  Also in recent years a number of vaccines have been put in a single administration dose to reduce the number of shots in kids.

 

For example:  Diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis vaccine (also known as DTaP) combined with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (also known as IPV) is a combination vaccine that is given to protect against infections caused by diphtheria, tetanus (lockjaw), pertussis (whooping cough), and poliovirus.

I concur as a layperson, using the internet, I haven't found and data that calls for spacing vaccinations, but I personally know physicians that advocate spacing.   I know that when I got some vaccinations for our safari to Africa that was postponed until next year, getting Hepatitis A and B, we had to get two shots, spaced out.  Not sure why that was the case.

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22 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

cangelmd and others who follow the science closely- Take a look at some recent published immunological data on T-cell responses in COVID cases (severe vs mild).  Everybody is focused on antibodies but CTL's and primed helper T-cells might be the key - as they are for protection against many viruses. There is some evidence and speculation that many of the people who are asymptomatic or have very mild cases are because they have primed T-cells against other circulating coronaviruses that cause colds.  A lot of T-cell epitopes are highly conserved and not prone to mutation.  Sorry everybody for getting too technical but this means a lot for a successful vaccine approach.

I will. I have read a couple of opinion pieces and editorials from people with the knowledge to make educated guesses, that cell-mediated would turn out to be the major immune mechanism. But that doesn’t preclude making a vaccine when you find the right target? Just means it’s much harder to make a vaccine that prevents infection, vs preventing disease.

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