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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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1 hour ago, npcl said:

To me a year immunity in a high percentage of those vaccinated would be an outstanding win.  Mitigating symptoms not so much unless it takes care of the cardio, kidney and neurological impacts as well as mortality.

 

My read of the statement is she is setting expectations about what might be considered to be a success, not really forecasting what she thinks it might be.

A year's immunity certainly works for me. While there are other vaccines with far longer immunity, going for my annual flu shot is hardly a chore, and an annual COVID-19 shot would be just a pleasant reminder that I have cruises coming up!

 

I also agree with your comment re expectations. She just doesn't want people to expect a silver bullet.

Edited by Fouremco
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1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

A year's immunity certainly works for me. While there are other vaccines with far longer immunity, going for my annual flu shot is hardly a chore, and an annual COVID-19 shot would be just a pleasant reminder that I have cruises coming up!

 

I also agree with your comment re expectations. She just doesn't want people to expect a silver bullet.

 

I'm also ok with an annual covid shot.  Whatever it takes to make sure my wife and I are safe, that's what matters.  

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54 minutes ago, K.T.B. said:

 

I'm also ok with an annual covid shot.  Whatever it takes to make sure my wife and I are safe, that's what matters.  

I wonder if they'll add it in with the annual flu shot vaccine combination or if it will be a separate shot altogether?

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4 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I wonder if they'll add it in with the annual flu shot vaccine combination or if it will be a separate shot altogether?

 

 

Separate. They're not going to spend the money on the clinical trials to demonstrate non-interference. And the mRNA and Adenovirus vectored viruses are probably not compatible with whatever additives are in the flu vaccine vial.

 

And the annual flu vaccine licensure process is so well established no sane person would think of messing with it!

Edited by markeb
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5 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

 

Separate. They're not going to spend the money on the clinical trials to demonstrate non-interference. And the mRNA and Adenovirus vectored viruses are probably not compatible with whatever additives are in the flu vaccine vial.

 

And the annual flu vaccine licensure process is so well established no sane person would think of messing with it!

I had a feeling that was going to be the answer, but thought I'd ask. No big deal. If we need to get both every year, that's fine. 

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On 7/10/2020 at 2:12 PM, pumpkin 11 said:

Vaccines usually only cover 25% to 65% of the population affectively. Could you IMAGINE mandating a federal vaccine requirement?! Insanity!

Actually no. Polio, Measles Mumps Rubella, Tetanus, Diphtheria, Smallpox and others are almost 100% effective.  

A Federal requirement for all?  

No.  But to visit some 30+ countries a vaccination is needed to return to the US.  I could see a vaccination for Covid required for foreign travel being likely.

Most years the flu vaccine is in the 60%+ area.

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7 hours ago, Fouremco said:

A year's immunity certainly works for me. While there are other vaccines with far longer immunity, going for my annual flu shot is hardly a chore, and an annual COVID-19 shot would be just a pleasant reminder that I have cruises coming up!

eXactly. 👍

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4 hours ago, markeb said:

 

 

Separate. They're not going to spend the money on the clinical trials to demonstrate non-interference. And the mRNA and Adenovirus vectored viruses are probably not compatible with whatever additives are in the flu vaccine vial.

@markeb Could they be separate vaccines that are administered at the same time (eg one in each arm) or does that "overload" our immune system?

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3 minutes ago, Shadow9612 said:

@markeb Could they be separate vaccines that are administered at the same time (eg one in each arm) or does that "overload" our immune system?

 

Probably. Let's see what the clinical trials say. Co-administration is one of those controversial things in vaccines that's become more of a question (issue?) over the last 15-20 years. If they don't interfere, or cause undesirable effects, then probably OK. 

 

Honestly, a lot of the co-administration discussion came out of the military where multiple vaccines at the same time was common. That's been something of a controversy since the first Gulf War. It's also a big question in veterinary medicine, where a lot of veterinarians really don't like administering multiple vaccines; a lot of clients hate coming back for the next shot.

 

How about a "we'll see what the data shows" answer? I don't know of any reason why it won't work, but there's no data...

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7 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

Probably. Let's see what the clinical trials say. Co-administration is one of those controversial things in vaccines that's become more of a question (issue?) over the last 15-20 years. If they don't interfere, or cause undesirable effects, then probably OK. 

 

Honestly, a lot of the co-administration discussion came out of the military where multiple vaccines at the same time was common. That's been something of a controversy since the first Gulf War. It's also a big question in veterinary medicine, where a lot of veterinarians really don't like administering multiple vaccines; a lot of clients hate coming back for the next shot.

 

How about a "we'll see what the data shows" answer? I don't know of any reason why it won't work, but there's no data...

Sounds good to me 🙂

 

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6 hours ago, markeb said:

 

Probably. Let's see what the clinical trials say. Co-administration is one of those controversial things in vaccines that's become more of a question (issue?) over the last 15-20 years. If they don't interfere, or cause undesirable effects, then probably OK. 

 

Honestly, a lot of the co-administration discussion came out of the military where multiple vaccines at the same time was common. That's been something of a controversy since the first Gulf War. It's also a big question in veterinary medicine, where a lot of veterinarians really don't like administering multiple vaccines; a lot of clients hate coming back for the next shot.

 

How about a "we'll see what the data shows" answer? I don't know of any reason why it won't work, but there's no data...

Hi,

I agree, co-adminstration of different "types" of vaccines may be problematic.

mRNA vaccines are reported to be more "fragile" and require strict refrigeration.

The DTP childhood vaccines are a mixture (3 different bacterial vaccines)

and are usually given 5 times and are very effect even when co-adminstered.

There are also other vaccine mixtures (Hep A & B). 

It also depends on if the vaccine contains an adjuvant (immune stimulant)

and IF it is compatible with the other antigen components.

Complicated, and must be tested and approved.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, BP99 said:

Hi,

I agree, co-adminstration of different "types" of vaccines may be problematic.

mRNA vaccines are reported to be more "fragile" and require strict refrigeration.

The DTP childhood vaccines are a mixture (3 different bacterial vaccines)

and are usually given 5 times and are very effect even when co-adminstered.

There are also other vaccine mixtures (Hep A & B). 

It also depends on if the vaccine contains an adjuvant (immune stimulant)

and IF it is compatible with the other antigen components.

Complicated, and must be tested and approved.

 

 

 

The issue is that the two lead COVID vaccine candidates as of today are 1)mRNA and 2) adenovirus vector, neither of which has any kind of safety experience in humans so knowing what they can be combined with (like influenza vaccine) is just not known.  On the other hand, another lead approach, traditional purified subunit vaccine (SPIKE protein in adjuvant, see Novavax), might be combinable as there is a lot of approved vaccines using this technology.

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45 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

I am less optimistic about a 50% efficacy rate being a real game changer.  A good tool.  A help in getting the virus under control.  But still a long slog with a lot of effort to contain the outbreak.

 

He used the flu vaccine with its 40-60% efficacy as a comparison. Yet with that vaccine we still, in the US, get (depending upon year) between 9 million  and 45 million cases per year.  Considering that we are only at 5.6 million confirmed cases in the US so far. I do not think that we can count on a 50% efficacy to be a real game changer.

 

Let me ask the following question would you feel comfortable to take the vaccine and then travel like you used to with a 50% efficacy rate.  I would not, at least not until, the cases counts are down by at least an order of magnitude.

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11 minutes ago, npcl said:

I am less optimistic about a 50% efficacy rate being a real game changer.  A good tool.  A help in getting the virus under control.  But still a long slog with a lot of effort to contain the outbreak.

 

He used the flu vaccine with its 40-60% efficacy as a comparison. Yet with that vaccine we still, in the US, get (depending upon year) between 9 million  and 45 million cases per year.  Considering that we are only at 5.6 million confirmed cases in the US so far. I do not think that we can count on a 50% efficacy to be a real game changer.

 

Let me ask the following question would you feel comfortable to take the vaccine and then travel like you used to with a 50% efficacy rate.  I would not, at least not until, the cases counts are down by at least an order of magnitude.

I would travel especially if infection rate isnt that high.  Its 1% here in NY and I am optimistic it will drop other places as well.  The vaccine even at 50% plus rapid testing is enough for me. Traveling to Alaska in June and I plan to go there even if the cruise doesnt sail.

Edited by Crazy planning mom
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39 minutes ago, npcl said:

Let me ask the following question would you feel comfortable to take the vaccine and then travel like you used to with a 50% efficacy rate.  I would not, at least not until, the cases counts are down by at least an order of magnitude.

Well, let's hope the efficacy rate is in the 70-85% range rather than just 50%. If it was just 50%, then we would probably be back in line a month later for either a booster shot (if offered) or maybe even a different vaccine of better quality if one becomes available and we're allowed to get it.

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2 hours ago, npcl said:

I am less optimistic about a 50% efficacy rate being a real game changer.  A good tool.  A help in getting the virus under control.  But still a long slog with a lot of effort to contain the outbreak.

 

He used the flu vaccine with its 40-60% efficacy as a comparison. Yet with that vaccine we still, in the US, get (depending upon year) between 9 million  and 45 million cases per year.  Considering that we are only at 5.6 million confirmed cases in the US so far. I do not think that we can count on a 50% efficacy to be a real game changer.

 

Let me ask the following question would you feel comfortable to take the vaccine and then travel like you used to with a 50% efficacy rate.  I would not, at least not until, the cases counts are down by at least an order of magnitude.

Need to remember vaccinations for flu have been in the 40% area.  Thus about 20% of population got protection.  

If that happens with COVID there will be tens of millions of cases and huge number of deaths along with International travel shut thru at least 2021.

The British Columbia health Minister - very sharp lady IMO - commented that a combo of testing and vaccination likely required for visitors from outside USA for part of 2021.

I will get my flu vaccine and COVID vaccine when available.  Thinking lengthy independent travel in Europe not likely a good idea or possible for many months.

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22 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Need to remember vaccinations for flu have been in the 40% area.  Thus about 20% of population got protection.  

If that happens with COVID there will be tens of millions of cases and huge number of deaths along with International travel shut thru at least 2021.

The British Columbia health Minister - very sharp lady IMO - commented that a combo of testing and vaccination likely required for visitors from outside USA for part of 2021.

I will get my flu vaccine and COVID vaccine when available.  Thinking lengthy independent travel in Europe not likely a good idea or possible for many months.

 

It's not that simple. A big part of seasonal flu vaccine campaign is to prevent sustained transmission, protecting people by not transmitting the flu.

 

Seasonal influenza has a R0 (basic reproductive rate) of about 1.3. With a 50% effective vaccine (range is usually 40-60%+), I can stop transmission with roughly 46% of population being vaccinated. The 46% are more protected against serious disease, and they provide a buffer to everyone else. So that 20-25% of the population that are fully protected stop much of the flu transmission to the other 75-80%

 

With SARS-CoV-2, the R0 estimates are in the 2-3 range. If you use 2.5 and a 50% effective vaccine, you need 120% of the population vaccinated. The 25% of the population that's more or less fully protected can't stop sustained transmission without other measures, which right now are social distancing and masks. The testing helps determine who should be isolated and quarantined.

 

Part of that depends on how 50% effective ultimately gets defined, as some of the vaccine trials have multiple endpoints. The one that gets us to "normal" eventually, is stopping transmission. And the way the candidates work, if you do that, you should also largely prevent disease.

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25 minutes ago, markeb said:

With SARS-CoV-2, the R0 estimates are in the 2-3 range. If you use 2.5 and a 50% effective vaccine, you need 120% of the population vaccinated. The 25% of the population that's more or less fully protected can't stop sustained transmission without other measures, which right now are social distancing and masks. The testing helps determine who should be isolated and quarantined.

 

Reread this too late. The numbers right now are that nearly half the US population wouldn't get vaccinated, and obviously you can't vaccinate 120% of the population. That's where the 25% came from, rounding to 50% that would probably take the vaccine. I hate it when I do that!

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Electrostatic Driven Self-Assembly of Functional Nanostructures

 

https://pamspublic.science.energy.gov/WebPAMSExternal/Interface/Common/ViewPublicAbstract.aspx?rv=e09234b1-a4bd-437a-9dac-db382516456c&rtc=24&PRoleId=10

 

Enhanced Binding of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein to Receptor by Distal Polybasic Cleavage Sites

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c04798#

 

Edited by gerelmx
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5 minutes ago, gerelmx said:

OK???? And for us novices why is this important to the development of a COVID vaccine?

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