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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


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On 11/3/2020 at 9:41 PM, nocl said:

Lack of knowledge and acceptable measurements for this virus is a real pain. Unfortunately we cannot wait until we have everything is well understood.

 

The inability to use serology, mean confirmation of infection by virus detection swabs and PCR.  Far more difficult that serology.

Perhaps a poop test could be used as an endpoint instead of serology.  It is something that they are pooling at certain colleges.  Not kidding.

https://khn.org/news/the-best-covid-warning-system-poop-and-pooled-spit-says-one-colorado-school/

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Perhaps a poop test could be used as an endpoint instead of serology.  It is something that they are pooling at certain colleges.  Not kidding.

https://khn.org/news/the-best-covid-warning-system-poop-and-pooled-spit-says-one-colorado-school/

I guess the protocol designers thought that such a test would be a bunch of crap.😁

 

Probably not an accepted standard for infection either.

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Earlier this week, the Canadian National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) published its "preliminary guidance for public health program level decision-making to plan for the efficient, effective, and equitable allocation of a novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine once it is authorized for use in Canada when limited initial vaccine supply will necessitate the prioritization of immunization in some populations earlier than others." https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/immunization/national-advisory-committee-on-immunization-naci/guidance-key-populations-early-covid-19-immunization.html#a7

 

This initial report identifies four key populations, but doesn't prioritize one over another. It also recognizes that these groups are not mutually exclusive and may overlap,

 

Those at high risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19

  • Advanced age
  • Other high-risk conditions (to be defined as the evidence base evolves)

Those most likely to transmit COVID-19 to those at high risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19 and workers essential to maintaining the COVID-19 response

  • Healthcare workers, personal care workers, and caregivers providing care in long-term care facilities, or other congregate care facilities for seniors
  • Other workers most essential in managing the COVID-19 response or providing frontline care for COVID-19 patients
  • Household contacts of those at high-risk of severe illness and death from COVID-19

Those contributing to the maintenance of other essential services for the functioning of society

  • To be defined, prioritized and informed by federal/provincial/territorial (FPT) discussions
  • Examples: those who cannot work virtually and have differential exposure to COVID-19 (e.g., police, firefighters, grocery store staff)

Those whose living or working conditions put them at elevated risk of infection and where infection could have disproportionate consequences, including Indigenous communities

  • To be defined based on COVID-19 epidemiology and previous pandemic experience
  • Examples: settings where physical distancing and other infection prevention and control measures are challenging, access to healthcare infrastructure is reduced, and infection could have disproportionate consequences

 

 

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7 hours ago, nocl said:

I guess the protocol designers thought that such a test would be a bunch of crap.😁

 

Probably not an accepted standard for infection either.

Actually accepted.  At the college dorms the sewage is tested.  If testing shows negative for COVID then the students living at that dorm are negative.  Very effective.  Exactly the same principle as combining samples to reduce the number of tests required.

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1 minute ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Actually accepted.  At the college dorms the sewage is tested.  If testing shows negative for COVID then the students living at that dorm are negative.  Very effective.  Exactly the same principle as combining samples to reduce the number of tests required.

there is a big difference between using an assay to collect information for an unregulated purpose and using it to determine if someone is infected in a clinical trial.

 

  The sample collection of sewage to determine if there is covid in a population is a scientific study, but no one has done the kind of work to be able to certify it as s method for proving infection in a clinical trial.

 

For example how many infected individuals will pass virus? At what stage of an infection will it start to show up? How long will it last?  

 

That is what I mean by accepted, not that people accept that it can be used as a qualitative means to detect and estimate the amount of covid in a population.

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11 hours ago, nocl said:

there is a big difference between using an assay to collect information for an unregulated purpose and using it to determine if someone is infected in a clinical trial.

 

  The sample collection of sewage to determine if there is covid in a population is a scientific study, but no one has done the kind of work to be able to certify it as s method for proving infection in a clinical trial.

 

For example how many infected individuals will pass virus? At what stage of an infection will it start to show up? How long will it last?  

 

That is what I mean by accepted, not that people accept that it can be used as a qualitative means to detect and estimate the amount of covid in a population.

You are clearly correct on this for right now ---but I imagine it might not be a big stretch in future clinical trials to use fecal testing if the method can be validated as a consistent viral load readout.  I think this is an intriguing possibility (to me anyway).

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Just now, TeeRick said:

You are clearly correct on this for right now ---but I imagine it might not be a big stretch in future clinical trials to use fecal testing if the method can be validated as a consistent viral load readout.  I think this is an intriguing possibility (to me anyway).

Yep. Unfortunately validation takes time.

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12 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Actually accepted.  At the college dorms the sewage is tested.  If testing shows negative for COVID then the students living at that dorm are negative.  Very effective.  Exactly the same principle as combining samples to reduce the number of tests required.

Colleges aren't the only ones looking at this:

 

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/more-ontario-municipalities-will-get-the-poop-on-covid-by-tracking-wastewater

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7 hours ago, emmas gran said:

This is from UK Government website for Covid an article published 2 weeks ago it appears we have been testing waste for 2/3 months

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sewage-signals-early-warning-of-coronavirus-outbreaks

 

Liz

Thank you Liz.  The question is whether this viral shedding in feces can be studied and validated as a reliable clinical outcome. 

 

Now what if this method is possible to validate and use on entire cruise ships and test their waste stream perhaps a few times a day?  If it is negative than the ship will be safe for cruise passengers and crew on board.  If positive they know COVID on board and further testing required.  Interesting!

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What I know is that I am not paying $ for any experience thus far described; daily testing, feces testing, testing at the pier, cruise line only shore excursions etc.

 

Like many other CC'rs posting on the boards, there are other vacation options that provide an excellent experience without the "hostage" situation potential on a cruise ship.

 

The many folks posting on this and other threads, thanks for your outstanding contribution to public safety, many of you have obvious great experience in the virus field. Wow.

 

In the end, the human mind has no limit to the ideas for testing no doubt!

 

 

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56 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

What I know is that I am not paying $ for any experience thus far described; daily testing, feces testing, testing at the pier, cruise line only shore excursions etc.

 

Like many other CC'rs posting on the boards, there are other vacation options that provide an excellent experience without the "hostage" situation potential on a cruise ship.

 

The many folks posting on this and other threads, thanks for your outstanding contribution to public safety, many of you have obvious great experience in the virus field. Wow.

 

In the end, the human mind has no limit to the ideas for testing no doubt!

 

 

So many of us agree with this.  I certainly do!  I am hoping to take a cruise vacation in the next year or two hopefully.  Not willing to take a cruise endurance test and pay money for it.

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On 11/6/2020 at 8:14 PM, nocl said:

there is a big difference between using an assay to collect information for an unregulated purpose and using it to determine if someone is infected in a clinical trial.

 

  The sample collection of sewage to determine if there is covid in a population is a scientific study, but no one has done the kind of work to be able to certify it as s method for proving infection in a clinical trial.

 

For example how many infected individuals will pass virus? At what stage of an infection will it start to show up? How long will it last?  

 

That is what I mean by accepted, not that people accept that it can be used as a qualitative means to detect and estimate the amount of covid in a population.

You seem to have misunderstood.  This has nothing to do with a clinical trial or to determine if a specific individual has COVID.  It is being used in both the US and Canada to determine if any resident in a building has COVID.  If the "poop" test is positive then all the residents are tested.  This is working well to find asymptomatic students who would not otherwise be found and hopefully limit them spreading the virus.

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I thought this was an interesting video albeit a bit long.

 
David Martin reports on the military efforts underway to inoculate 300 million Americans with an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine 

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/covid-19-vaccine-distribution-60-minutes-2020-11-08/

Edited by mimbecky
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5 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You seem to have misunderstood.  This has nothing to do with a clinical trial or to determine if a specific individual has COVID.  It is being used in both the US and Canada to determine if any resident in a building has COVID.  If the "poop" test is positive then all the residents are tested.  This is working well to find asymptomatic students who would not otherwise be found and hopefully limit them spreading the virus.

the comment of mine that you responded was a response to TeeRick in which he was talking about using stool samples for infection determination in the clinical trial. it was in that context that I said it probably not accepted.

 

to which you responded saying it was. Thus my explanation of why it might be used for studies but not accepted in the context of the post you responded to.

 

After all this is a topic about Vaccines.

Edited by nocl
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Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Edited by TeeRick
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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Yay!!!! 🕺🕺

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Great News!!!👏👏

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

And all cruise and air line stocks are soaring with the news too. We may be able to cruise next year after all.

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2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against

Saw that early this morning, told DH, best news we’ve had in a long time!

I was about to tell him to not bother with his Greek language lessons for our Oct 2021 cruise.

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6 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Hopefully everybody has seen the early news of the Pfizer vaccine efficacy (90% interim look).  Great news!  Great positive day for the world.    Hopefully no future curve balls and the data hold throughout the trial  But a huge first step.  Pfizer press release below.

 

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against


Fantastic news from Pfizer.

In the UK the BMA (British Medical Association) wrote to all GP’s last week to outline the start of the vaccination process which will be lead by GP’s, initially during December. At the outset Healthcare workers and the over 85’s will be offered the vaccine.

 

There is however a logistical problem ahead. It is outlined in the BBC report that the vaccine needs stored at -80C

I spoke today with a division of a huge US Pharmaceutical Wholesale & Distribution company, and they have no facility for that type of storage or distribution via vans and lorries in the UK. The lowest temperature currently available in the UK is -12C

I have also spoken with two doctors today, and no doctors surgery will have the equipment to store at that temperature either.

 

I highlighted the potential of logistical problems earlier in this thread. Having spent a career working in the Pharmaceutical Industry there are multitude of factors to allow for beyond drug discovery. My input was ridiculed by Fouremco and I stopped posting as a result. Subsequently TeeRick kept the beacon burning for sense and sensibility.

 

We have breakthrough, however, we have to find a way of getting this vaccine to everyone in as fast and as safe a way as possible.

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2 hours ago, terrydtx said:

And all cruise and air line stocks are soaring with the news too. We may be able to cruise next year after all.

 

This my assumption.  The vaccine is released in January.  Essential workers (healthcare workers, etc.) are inoculated first, along with nursing home/senior living facilities.  My February seniors and people with underlying conditions.  February/March will be essential workers (teachers, etc.).  End of March everyone else.

 

I truly think by the time summer hits, the people who need it will have it and the people who want it will be most inoculated.  I suspect about 40% of the population will ignore it and assume they're "invulnerable" to the virus.

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