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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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Following on from Drarill's first link;

BC, where I live, is one of the Canadian provinces that has opted to use the initial doses to vaccinate as many people as possible giving the second, booster shot, when more supplies are available.

 

"We aren't holding back doses because we want to protect as many people as possible, as quickly as possible," Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.'s chief medical officer of health, recently said.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/vaccine-canada-second-dose-1.5854670

 

Congrats to the pair of you on getting your first dose.

 

Cheers, h.

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1 hour ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

Forgive me but no, that is more flawed logic.

 

Why would you lose front line medical workers due to the pandemic ?  Answer, because they test positive for Covid and thus are duty bound then to stay away from patients and to isolate at home for 14 days.   Being vaccinated is not going to change that.

 

The vaccines do NOT create a magic force field around you that prevents SARS-COV-2 ever getting to you.  I think people really don't understand how vaccines work.   The vaccines teach your body how to mount an immune response WHEN YOU DO actually get Covid. 

 

Thus the virus IS going to get to people either.   What the vaccines do is stop you getting serious symptoms when you ARE infected with Covid.

 

In the consideration of medical staff we do not assess symptoms.   We don't look at a nurse who has Covid and say, "well she's COVID-positive but she doesn't appear to have any strong symptoms so she can go into the ward and treat patients"

 

You need to get your head around that simple premise.

 

As soon as a nurse or other health worker tests positive (and they are being tested routinely) then they can't go to work anymore and like the rest of us must stay at home and isolate.

 

Therefore vaccination does not figure in this equation.

 

Being vaccinated HAS NOT been proven, or even tested, to determine whether or not you can still spread the virus to others.   On that basis vaccinated has only one purpose and benefit and that is to prevent the person being vaccinated from getting serious symptoms when they DO get Covid.

 

And that is precisely why it is unforgivable to give the vaccine to anyone right now except the most vulnerable at risk people.

 

I could reply in detail. 

But I'll simply ask, do we trust the logic of health authorities around the globe who have chosen to vaccinate their front line staff? Or do we choose the word of an armchair expert posting on a cruise forum on the internet who apparently knows better? 

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For those in the US are you seeing much info of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine? 
 

It barely mentioned here in the UK. No ones really reported that it was being administered before the UK started administering the Pfizer vaccine. It all seems very political to me. 

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30 minutes ago, Moby Jones said:

I could reply in detail. 

But I'll simply ask, do we trust the logic of health authorities around the globe who have chosen to vaccinate their front line staff? Or do we choose the word of an armchair expert posting on a cruise forum on the internet who apparently knows better? 

Many of us including me have simply used our Ignore button on that poster.

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It certainly is an interesting strategy to use only one dose of the AZ/Oxford vaccine in the UK and at least partially protect as many people as possible.  This was not part of the clinical trial protocol.  But I understand it.  For this particular vaccine, the manufacturing and distribution is easier so I think they are counting on that to happen pretty quickly and produce a very large number of doses.  If so, the second booster dose will come within a reasonable time.  But yikes! no efficacy or safety data to support this strategy so it will make a lot of experts uncomfortable to say the least.    

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/world/europe/uk-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html

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13 hours ago, cangelmd said:

NO PERFECT ANSWER! Amen

Every person who gets vaccinated is a victory. I'm not at all advocating just first come first serve, but part of the reason why the vaccinations are moving slower  than hoped is that the real world logistics of getting people vaccinated is even more complicated than first thought.

Based on experiences of people I know who got COvid, then got vaccinated as well as the people in the trial, the second exposure makes many people feel bad or even run fever, so work groups are trying to stagger vaccinations so that everyone isn't in line to call off work at the same time - that wasn't in the original plan.

At the end of each day there have been some left over doses with the Pfizer that need to go to someone, so a few people get "ahead", but no one wants to waste doses.

cangelmd- since you are in the trenches with this vaccine - could I make a request?  Can you tell us here briefly your hospital's experience so far?  Which vaccines and when received?  How did they arrive and containers? How did they get stored locally?  Then what was the process?  How were doses documented? Tracked?  What was the follow up with those vaccinated?  Any unusual responses?  Did some vaccinated individuals call in sick the next day or two?  Did work schedules need to be staggered for this possible outcome?  Thanks!  I know it is a lot of questions.

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4 hours ago, drarill said:

Good morning!  wanted to share two links.  One to an interesting article about giving people only one dose of the vaccine and the second one is a link to the CDC V-safe tool, for those of you getting vaccinated.

BTW, I received my first dose of Moderna's vaccine as an early Christmas gift last Thursday.  I only experienced soreness on the injection area for two days.  My husband will be fully vaccinated in a week because he got Pfizer's vaccine on Dec.17,  I will catch up two weeks later 😀

We are experiencing the same frustrations and problems with the vaccine distribution as everywhere else.  Though the National Guard is trying to figure out the best way to do this.  Wishing all of you a brighter 2021.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/12/18/coronavirus-vaccine-single-dose-debate

https://vsafe.cdc.gov/?fbclid=IwAR3zXYGF3ih5fX4Zp6HtpKEI0SsGh_Sckl9K3FLYTuQG-DwbMBskZc5IjI0

 

drarill- thank you for these links!

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On 12/28/2020 at 10:53 AM, Moby Jones said:


Flawed logic in my opinion. 

If you lose too many front line medical workers due to the pandemic then the elderly and most vulnerable won't have people to care for them. This has already been seen in multiple countries. 

You need to strike the right balance between the vulnerable and those delivering care to the vulnerable. 
 

Vaccinate the vulnerable and the need to care for them goes down, as does the required number of health care workers to provide that care.

 

If every 'vulnerable' person was vaccinated for covid, the number of them requiring medical care for covid illnesses would presumably drop by about 95%.   

 

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6 hours ago, drarill said:

Good morning!  wanted to share two links.  One to an interesting article about giving people only one dose of the vaccine and the second one is a link to the CDC V-safe tool, for those of you getting vaccinated.

BTW, I received my first dose of Moderna's vaccine as an early Christmas gift last Thursday.  I only experienced soreness on the injection area for two days.  My husband will be fully vaccinated in a week because he got Pfizer's vaccine on Dec.17,  I will catch up two weeks later 😀

We are experiencing the same frustrations and problems with the vaccine distribution as everywhere else.  Though the National Guard is trying to figure out the best way to do this.  Wishing all of you a brighter 2021.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/12/18/coronavirus-vaccine-single-dose-debate

https://vsafe.cdc.gov/?fbclid=IwAR3zXYGF3ih5fX4Zp6HtpKEI0SsGh_Sckl9K3FLYTuQG-DwbMBskZc5IjI0

 

The CDC link doesn't work, at least for me. :classic_sad:

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1 hour ago, D C said:

Vaccinate the vulnerable and the need to care for them goes down, as does the required number of health care workers to provide that care.

 

If every 'vulnerable' person was vaccinated for covid, the number of them requiring medical care for covid illnesses would presumably drop by about 95%.   

 


You do know that before Covid arrived we needed health care workers to treat other conditions right? 
 

I'll let you do the rest of the maths..... 

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5 minutes ago, drarill said:

Thank you. The WP article was behind a pay wall, but the KXAN article was accessible. From reading it, I surmise that the app is intended for US residents.

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39 minutes ago, Moby Jones said:


You do know that before Covid arrived we needed health care workers to treat other conditions right? 
 

I'll let you do the rest of the maths..... 

Which is exactly what they get to go back to doing, instead of caring for 'extra' patients because of covid.

 

Let's go back to what we know and don't know about the vaccine.

Symptom elimination? Yes

Transmission elimination? Don't know.

 

And let's look at a healthcare worker today.

Symptoms = stay home

Positive covid test with or without symptoms = stay home

 

What changes as a result of them being vaccinated?

Symptoms go away.

 

Will they still be tested regularly?  (right now, my wife is tested every 6 days whether she likes it or not.... and she hasn't liked it so far).   If they might still be contagious but asymptomatic, it would make sense that testing would be continued or increased, would it not?  

 

Then what happens if a test comes back as positive for a vaccinated healthcare worker? Does positive test = stay home?  It reasonably should since we don't know if they're contagious or not.

 

If they can still catch covid, and still stay home if they're positive, what was gained by vaccinating them?  Symptoms are lessened and it's harder to determine if they've been infected because they don't present with a fever or other symptoms.   That's it. 

 

 

 

Of course, the alternative is that we assume the vaccination does prevent transmission and we stop testing healthcare workers entirely and allow them to come to work even if they have a known exposure.  I'll argue that's not exactly erring on the side of caution. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Moby Jones said:

For those in the US are you seeing much info of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine? 
 

It barely mentioned here in the UK. No ones really reported that it was being administered before the UK started administering the Pfizer vaccine. It all seems very political to me. 

 

No, cause no one trusts data out of Russia.  Because they don't have the same system of sharing data as in the west.  Basically assumption is if you aren't willing to freely share your data, it's cause there is something there to hide.  No chance it gets even reviewed by FDA unless they do a 180 on openess.

 

It's based on human adenovirus vector, similar to J&J.  Everyone has been trying human adenovirus vaccines for a long time, especially popular in the attempts at HIV vaccine, and there are many many many known issues.  There's no reason to give more thought into it if it's not going to be open with the data, especially with similar vaccines already in the pipeline in the west that is open with the data.

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

It certainly is an interesting strategy to use only one dose of the AZ/Oxford vaccine in the UK and at least partially protect as many people as possible.  This was not part of the clinical trial protocol.  But I understand it.  For this particular vaccine, the manufacturing and distribution is easier so I think they are counting on that to happen pretty quickly and produce a very large number of doses.  If so, the second booster dose will come within a reasonable time.  But yikes! no efficacy or safety data to support this strategy so it will make a lot of experts uncomfortable to say the least.    

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/world/europe/uk-covid-19-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html

 

I watched the brief by the MHRA and later interview with Oxford, It seems that the trial did include doses at various points upto 26 weeks after initial dose with all the efficacy and safety data delivered to the MHRA. The MHRA decided the strongest data suggested that you could leave the second dose for between 4 and 12 weeks. They concluded there was not enough data to support the 1/2 dose full dose strategy.

Though research is on going into this and also different spacing of the dosing to increase efficacy. It was shown in the data that the first dose gave 70% efficacy within 14 days and reduced symptoms in all trial subjects with none needing hospitalisation after becoming infected and the second dose increased efficacy to at least 80% or dropped to 62% depending on when the second dose was administered.

 

I will say Astrazeneca/Oxford have been pretty useless at getting their PR and facts across.

 

The strategy is not down to the MHRA or Astrazeneca/Oxford though they do have some input but down to Government scientists and from what I have heard from these people today is one dose with a 70% efficacy is enough to get deaths and hospitalisations under control and gives Astrazeneca time to produce enough doses for the second jab. 

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11 minutes ago, nomad098 said:

 

I watched the brief by the MHRA and later interview with Oxford, It seems that the trial did include doses at various points upto 26 weeks after initial dose with all the efficacy and safety data delivered to the MHRA. The MHRA decided the strongest data suggested that you could leave the second dose for between 4 and 12 weeks. They concluded there was not enough data to support the 1/2 dose full dose strategy.

Though research is on going into this and also different spacing of the dosing to increase efficacy. It was shown in the data that the first dose gave 70% efficacy within 14 days and reduced symptoms in all trial subjects with none needing hospitalisation after becoming infected and the second dose increased efficacy to at least 80% or dropped to 62% depending on when the second dose was administered.

 

I will say Astrazeneca/Oxford have been pretty useless at getting their PR and facts across.

 

The strategy is not down to the MHRA or Astrazeneca/Oxford though they do have some input but down to Government scientists and from what I have heard from these people today is one dose with a 70% efficacy is enough to get deaths and hospitalisations under control and gives Astrazeneca time to produce enough doses for the second jab. 

Thanks for filling us in on some of the additional thoughts and data behind this strategy.

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

cangelmd- since you are in the trenches with this vaccine - could I make a request?  Can you tell us here briefly your hospital's experience so far?  Which vaccines and when received?  How did they arrive and containers? How did they get stored locally?  Then what was the process?  How were doses documented? Tracked?  What was the follow up with those vaccinated?  Any unusual responses?  Did some vaccinated individuals call in sick the next day or two?  Did work schedules need to be staggered for this possible outcome?  Thanks!  I know it is a lot of questions.

We received our first batch of vaccine - Pfizer 975ish doses, minimum order - either on Dec 9th or 12th. We stored the flat pack of vials (kind of looked like one of those large flat square egg containers that holds 2-3 dozen eggs) in the -70 freezer actually in the lab because literally you cannot buy the small -70 freezers right now. All of our materials were removed and a lock was put on the freezer. They came in a cube shipping container surrounded by dry ice, not a lot different than the containers we get frozen plasma shipped in, just bigger about 2 feet on a side.

Remember we are a relatively small hospital, some of how people get signed up for vaccine would not work as well in a larger organization. The shots were planned to be given starting on Wed after we received the vaccine, so about 2 days. Employees including employed physicians went through employee health website to reserve an appt time. Employees were ranked by department according to level of risk (our larger umbrella health care system developed the consent forms and worked on the process for allocating vaccine, but that top down method only went so far) - with Covid ICU staff, ER, respiratory therapy going first. Contract physicians (that's me) and independent groups and members of med staff plus PAs and NPs seeing patients in the hospital were contacted by the Med Staff office and given appts through the med staff office. Also, our county public health dept partnered each hospital in town with a couple of rural hospitals within 2-3 hours drive and with units of EMS to provide vaccine to those persons.

So Day 1 was very frontline physician leaders and ICU nurses, respiratory therapists. Day 2 was ER and other hospital employees just beyond the absolute frontline. Day 3 was second line physicians, EMS and the outlying hospitals. In our state, all practicing physicians are eligible for vaccination sometime in the first wave.

At least that was the plan, 😏, first day they figured out instead of 5 doses in a vial there were 6, maybe 7 if you really worked at it, so  that threw the scheduling out of whack. By the end of day 1, they were calling up to get anyone who was scheduled on another day and to come on and use up the last few shots that day. The  outlying hospitals could only send a few people and I've lost track of how they are going to get vaccine to others there. EMS showed up both days 2 and 3.

All of this is only a problem in that you have to fill out several forms, get your shot, then be observed for at least 15 minutes for reactions and stay 6 feet apart for all of this. They took the large meeting space and put in multiple stations to get people registered, consented, vaccinated, observed, and get their card for the return shot and double check all the paperwork. It took about 30 minutes by Day 3.

They originally scheduled for 75 vaccinations a day over 6  days, but I think they were averaging about 125 per day, especially the first two days.

Overall, I think a large majority of the eligible MDs got vaccinated and nursing staff was running 40-50 %. Because of all the scheduling and observations and paperwork, they did not even try to cover night shift until the second week.

I think originally we were supposed to get an almost equal amount of Moderna, but Ive been off for the holiday and I haven't heard. Given the challenges in thawing, diluting and preparing the Pfizer vaccine without wasting any - no one wants to waste any - I think the hospitals with storage capacity will be the only places to get any significant orders of Pfizer in my state, and they may well have diverted all the Moderna to other places, at least that's what I would do if I was them. Last numbers I saw was roughly 128K doses sent to Al and only 25K dispensed - lots of reasons, reluctance to take the vaccine, lots of Covid and they aren't vaccinating within 90 days of diagnosis, pregnancy, severe allergies, etc. The holidays also have really slowed things down.

Next challenge, seems that your second exposure to the antigens have a fairly high likelihood of making you feel bad, so work teams have to split up just in case. My partner had Covid back in the summer, his first shot made him feel bad for about 12 hours, no fever, didn't miss work, just took Advil, but noticed that something was different. No severe allergic reactions here, allergic people are supposed to be observed for 30 minutes, not just 15.

Probably more than you wanted to know. What's that old military saying about the plan holding up when you encounter the enemy?

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3 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

We received our first batch of vaccine - Pfizer 975ish doses, minimum order - either on Dec 9th or 12th. We stored the flat pack of vials (kind of looked like one of those large flat square egg containers that holds 2-3 dozen eggs) in the -70 freezer actually in the lab because literally you cannot buy the small -70 freezers right now. All of our materials were removed and a lock was put on the freezer. They came in a cube shipping container surrounded by dry ice, not a lot different than the containers we get frozen plasma shipped in, just bigger about 2 feet on a side.

Remember we are a relatively small hospital, some of how people get signed up for vaccine would not work as well in a larger organization. The shots were planned to be given starting on Wed after we received the vaccine, so about 2 days. Employees including employed physicians went through employee health website to reserve an appt time. Employees were ranked by department according to level of risk (our larger umbrella health care system developed the consent forms and worked on the process for allocating vaccine, but that top down method only went so far) - with Covid ICU staff, ER, respiratory therapy going first. Contract physicians (that's me) and independent groups and members of med staff plus PAs and NPs seeing patients in the hospital were contacted by the Med Staff office and given appts through the med staff office. Also, our county public health dept partnered each hospital in town with a couple of rural hospitals within 2-3 hours drive and with units of EMS to provide vaccine to those persons.

So Day 1 was very frontline physician leaders and ICU nurses, respiratory therapists. Day 2 was ER and other hospital employees just beyond the absolute frontline. Day 3 was second line physicians, EMS and the outlying hospitals. In our state, all practicing physicians are eligible for vaccination sometime in the first wave.

At least that was the plan, 😏, first day they figured out instead of 5 doses in a vial there were 6, maybe 7 if you really worked at it, so  that threw the scheduling out of whack. By the end of day 1, they were calling up to get anyone who was scheduled on another day and to come on and use up the last few shots that day. The  outlying hospitals could only send a few people and I've lost track of how they are going to get vaccine to others there. EMS showed up both days 2 and 3.

All of this is only a problem in that you have to fill out several forms, get your shot, then be observed for at least 15 minutes for reactions and stay 6 feet apart for all of this. They took the large meeting space and put in multiple stations to get people registered, consented, vaccinated, observed, and get their card for the return shot and double check all the paperwork. It took about 30 minutes by Day 3.

They originally scheduled for 75 vaccinations a day over 6  days, but I think they were averaging about 125 per day, especially the first two days.

Overall, I think a large majority of the eligible MDs got vaccinated and nursing staff was running 40-50 %. Because of all the scheduling and observations and paperwork, they did not even try to cover night shift until the second week.

I think originally we were supposed to get an almost equal amount of Moderna, but Ive been off for the holiday and I haven't heard. Given the challenges in thawing, diluting and preparing the Pfizer vaccine without wasting any - no one wants to waste any - I think the hospitals with storage capacity will be the only places to get any significant orders of Pfizer in my state, and they may well have diverted all the Moderna to other places, at least that's what I would do if I was them. Last numbers I saw was roughly 128K doses sent to Al and only 25K dispensed - lots of reasons, reluctance to take the vaccine, lots of Covid and they aren't vaccinating within 90 days of diagnosis, pregnancy, severe allergies, etc. The holidays also have really slowed things down.

Next challenge, seems that your second exposure to the antigens have a fairly high likelihood of making you feel bad, so work teams have to split up just in case. My partner had Covid back in the summer, his first shot made him feel bad for about 12 hours, no fever, didn't miss work, just took Advil, but noticed that something was different. No severe allergic reactions here, allergic people are supposed to be observed for 30 minutes, not just 15.

Probably more than you wanted to know. What's that old military saying about the plan holding up when you encounter the enemy?

No way is this more than I wanted to know, truly appreciate all of this information.  Thank you for being on the "front lines"!!!

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45 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Thanks for filling us in on some of the additional thoughts and data behind this strategy.

 

Change in advice for UK:

 

Only those with known allergic reaction to ingredients of Pfizer or Astrazeneca vaccine are excluded. Food or penicillin allergies now allowed.

 

Breastfeeding women can now have either vaccine if they are made aware and understand the risks.

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3 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Last numbers I saw was roughly 128K doses sent to Al and only 25K dispensed - lots of reasons, reluctance to take the vaccine, lots of Covid and they aren't vaccinating within 90 days of diagnosis, pregnancy, severe allergies, etc. The holidays also have really slowed things down.

Thanks for the update, but your above statement really caught my eye and, of course, it is not unique to Alabama based on the percentages I'm seeing in other states in the below link?

 

More Than 5.6 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker (bloomberg.com)

 

So, how do we get into this line where there are over 100K doses just sitting in the freezer because the folks in Group 1A "have a reluctance to take the vaccine" or some other issue holding them back? We are in Group 1C (over 65) and have no issues with taking the vaccine. I realize you are only the messenger, so we can only hope the Alabama powers that be will get a handle on some of the start-up lessons learned they're experiencing really soon and start stepping up the distribution process.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Moby Jones said:

I could reply in detail. 

But I'll simply ask, do we trust the logic of health authorities around the globe who have chosen to vaccinate their front line staff? Or do we choose the word of an armchair expert posting on a cruise forum on the internet who apparently knows better? 

I think as all of our lives are literally at stake here, we all have the right to our opinions of how things should be handled.   l also think that we need to keep in mind that sometimes those in authority do what is best for the optics, and not always what is truly best for the people. I also think extremely intelligent people (and I think these scientists and medical experts obviously are) are so detail oriented that they sometimes don't see the forest for the trees as the saying goes and sometimes are much better at so-called book learning than common sense.  I have a brother-in-law who is one of the brightest people you would ever meet in many respects (he is an electrical engineer), but he has zero common sense.   I also don't think we should ignore people who have different opinions than we do.

 

I personally happen to agree with vaccinating the front line healthcare workers first.  At the same time, many of them have already had the virus.  I ask the question - is it really appropriate to include that subgroup in the first group of vaccinations when they in all likelihood (I know not 100% certainty) will have immunity for some length of time?  There are enough of them in that situation that I think that should have been considered.  Consider that for every dose of the vaccine that is given to someone who doesn't really need it at the time, a vulnerable person who really does need it has to wait and will possibly die while waiting.

 

 I also question the CDC's recommendation for the next group.  Many of these essential workers are young and healthy, and while we all know that is not a 100% guarantee they will not be hospitalized or die, the odds are significantly in their favor compared to people 60-75 years old, or those with health conditions.  In fact the CDC itself states that a 65 year old is 90% more likely to die or be hospitalized than a 20-30 year old.  90% is a very significant number!  And yet a 65 year old or a person with lung disease or cancer is in group 1c, after the 20 year old essential worker with no health concerns.  

 

You can ignore my posts as well if you wish, but there are some very logical reasons for considering different priorities than those recommended by the 'experts'.  

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27 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Thanks for the update, but your above statement really caught my eye and, of course, it is not unique to Alabama based on the percentages I'm seeing in other states in the below link?

 

More Than 5.6 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker (bloomberg.com)

 

So, how do we get into this line where there are over 100K doses just sitting in the freezer because the folks in Group 1A "have a reluctance to take the vaccine" or some other issue holding them back? We are in Group 1C (over 65) and have no issues with taking the vaccine. I realize you are only the messenger, so we can only hope the Alabama powers that be will get a handle on some of the start-up lessons learned they're experiencing really soon and start stepping up the distribution process.

@cangelmd, sorry for directing my frustration towards you even though you were only the messenger. As it turns out Alabama doesn't have 100K+ doses sitting in freezers somewhere. It's just what they were "allotted"; but probably haven't received yet. But, on the bright side, my DW pointed me to the ADPH website which contains a bunch of COVID information which I will be monitoring daily regarding the latest COVID actions going on in our state.

 

Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) (alabamapublichealth.gov)

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1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

I think as all of our lives are literally at stake here, we all have the right to our opinions of how things should be handled.   l also think that we need to keep in mind that sometimes those in authority do what is best for the optics, and not always what is truly best for the people. I also think extremely intelligent people (and I think these scientists and medical experts obviously are) are so detail oriented that they sometimes don't see the forest for the trees as the saying goes and sometimes are much better at so-called book learning than common sense.  I have a brother-in-law who is one of the brightest people you would ever meet in many respects (he is an electrical engineer), but he has zero common sense.   I also don't think we should ignore people who have different opinions than we do.

 

I personally happen to agree with vaccinating the front line healthcare workers first.  At the same time, many of them have already had the virus.  I ask the question - is it really appropriate to include that subgroup in the first group of vaccinations when they in all likelihood (I know not 100% certainty) will have immunity for some length of time?  There are enough of them in that situation that I think that should have been considered.  Consider that for every dose of the vaccine that is given to someone who doesn't really need it at the time, a vulnerable person who really does need it has to wait and will possibly die while waiting.

 

 I also question the CDC's recommendation for the next group.  Many of these essential workers are young and healthy, and while we all know that is not a 100% guarantee they will not be hospitalized or die, the odds are significantly in their favor compared to people 60-75 years old, or those with health conditions.  In fact the CDC itself states that a 65 year old is 90% more likely to die or be hospitalized than a 20-30 year old.  90% is a very significant number!  And yet a 65 year old or a person with lung disease or cancer is in group 1c, after the 20 year old essential worker with no health concerns.  

 

You can ignore my posts as well if you wish, but there are some very logical reasons for considering different priorities than those recommended by the 'experts'.  

 

 

Agreed on the optics vs benevolence.  I think it would be shortsighted to look at people in authority in any other way, 

 

A simple way to look at prioritization is to ask, "what is the problem we're trying to solve?".  I do hope that the answer in every case is that we're trying to prevent (or minimise) deaths due to covid. 

 

To twist it a bit, we can look at the 'plan' and ask, "Are we solving the problem by vaccinating group XXXX?"

 

While it's tempting to point a finger and say that the 'essential' healthy 20 year old grocery store cashier isn't 'deserving' of a vaccine, it's better to ask if the entire group of grocery store cashiers stands out as an at-risk demographic over other categories of people.

 

To analyse that a bit more, for every healthy 20 year old, there is a 60+ year old working the cashier job to earn extra income.  Demographically, the group is both at risk and not at risk if the goal is to prevent deaths.  In terms of essential-ness, it's a low-skill job that is easily filled, and self-checkouts are commonplace.  Aside from "we need to buy groceries" a quick glance suggests there is nothing about this particular group that justifies a need for special, immediate attention.   Prioritizing them because of their essentialness is nonsensical when we look at it that way.   They don't move to the bottom of the list per-se, we simply eliminate that group and find another way to analyse/categorise those people. 

 

 

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