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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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1 hour ago, dreaminofcruisin said:

 

I agree with your post and I had anticipated their would be a shortage so not everyone could get it when it was first available. I think the frustration of a lot of us is not even that WE aren't getting the vaccine yet....it's that NOBODY is getting it. When you see that your state has only used 20 some percentage of available vaccines....you have to ask why? I totally expected them and really still do expect this SHOULD be happening.... they should be using close to 100% of what they are receiving and just waiting for the next batch....

The issue there is mostly with the end institutions.  The amounts allocated for the first dose have largely reached their end locations, but some of them have been very slow in dosing. In some cases the delay is because personal have declined getting vaccinated (in some cases because they are concerned about the vaccine in others because they have already been infected and feel that the they do not need the vaccine now), but the institutions are still holding on to those doses (I suspect waiting until the next group is authorized).

 

A percentage of the doses are for the second injection.  Depending upon how the use is calculated then 50% use of the allocation at this time would constitute full use since the second doses would just be starting.

 

Some institutions have been slow because of the work load of the staff and as a result they are setting the schedule to avoid the potential of multiple staff members being off due to reactions.  More of an issue during the second dose.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, zitsky said:

Did anyone hear or see Dr. Fauci say that the current vaccines won't work for the South Africa variant?  I was watching news at the doctor's office this morning.  Not sure what channel.

Not sure if Dr Fauci knows one way or another about this variant and current vaccines.  There is no good way to know yet.  Dr Fauci was speculating on whether the S.Africa variant infection might be less susceptible to some of the monoclonal antibodies used in therapy.  Which makes sense.  Not the vaccines.  

Here is some info on the S Africa variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/06/south-africa-covid-strain-a-guide-to-what-you-need-to-know.html

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11 minutes ago, zitsky said:

Did anyone hear or see Dr. Fauci say that the current vaccines won't work for the South Africa variant?  I was watching news at the doctor's office this morning.  Not sure what channel.

 

No. What I've found is him indicating concerns that we don't know, although he did a Newsweek interview two days ago where he said "It does not yet seem to have a negative impact on the vaccine. But it's important to continue to follow that in case things change.".

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13 minutes ago, zitsky said:

Did anyone hear or see Dr. Fauci say that the current vaccines won't work for the South Africa variant?  I was watching news at the doctor's office this morning.  Not sure what channel.

Do not see anything except that the vaccines might be less effective against the South African strain due to some changes in the receptor site that the antibodies attach to.

 

Tests are ongoing.

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59 minutes ago, zitsky said:

Did anyone hear or see Dr. Fauci say that the current vaccines won't work for the South Africa variant?  I was watching news at the doctor's office this morning.  Not sure what channel.

 

Geez, how fast do people expect research to work.  The fact that data is getting out so quickly is unprecedented. It really is amazing at the speed and amount that people are cranking studies out (quality is a separate issue...). 

 

Basically, no one knows, because no one has been able to gather and analyze data that fast.  What is fast is computer modelling, and computer modelling has shown some worrisome findings, which is why people are worried about the SA variant, and not so much the UK variant, while we really don't have any experimental data yet on either.  I'm sure someone will publish a paper soon with convalescent plasma and we will have a better idea, but it'll take some time as the labs that can do those studies are probably fighting tooth and nail right now to be the first to get samples of the SA strain, but it is definitely something that public health should be keeping on their radar for the time being.

 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.424283v2.abstract

 

So basically, scientists chose a monoclonal antibody (1 type of antibody) for potential therapy derived from convalescent plasma due to the efficacy in blocking the virus-human cell binding.  It blocks the very region where the virus attaches to human cells very strongly, so was chosen for a high likely hood of blocking the virus binding in real life.

 

The current SA strain has several mutations in this region, where it interacts with human cells, which is the huge concern.  Computer modelling shows this helps the virus bind easier to human cells (which may explain its infectivity), and computer modelling also shows that it basically completely prevents binding by that one antibody chosen, which may mean it will no longer bind in real life (remember, computer modelling, not real life testing data).

 

Humans develop polyclonal antibodies (many many types of antibodies) in response to real challenges by virus and by the mRNA vaccine.  So at least other antibodies produced should bind to other areas of the spike protein that aren't mutated, but you would expect the most effective antibodies to be the one that targets this same binding region. So that's why there is some concern that the vaccines won't work as well, as well as the hope that the vaccines will still work at least to some degree if not fully.

 

So that's why scientists are worried that there may be decreased effectiveness.  There is evidence there may be, but it is fairly weak evidence on the scale of weak to strong.  The possibilities still include 1) the vaccine will still be just as effective, 2) the vaccine will be somewhat effective but less so, and 3) the vaccines will be completely ineffective.   There is just not enough data right now. 

 

They are not just fear mongering though, this is definitely very concerning (i am concerned) and something world leaders and world public health departments should be monitoring.  Also completely unknown is the severity of these strains.

 

Honestly though, worst case scenario is probably they'll have to make a future cocktail mRNA vaccine with both or more variants, which is technologically trivial.  With solid safety data from the first vaccine it should hopefully get rushed through very quickly.

Edited by UnorigionalName
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7 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Here is my state's info (Pennsylvania). Going to my state's website (PA Dept. of Health) there is zero information on when any COVID vaccine will be available beyond Phase 1 (front line health care workers).  I know that CVS and Walgreens are starting to vaccinate in nursing homes but no info about that on the website.  Very poor communications.  No online "estimator" of when the vaccine might be available to others.  Local surrounding states like NJ have set this up.

 

Here is an article just published today about the lack of information and general confusion in my state.  Very disappointing.  They say that many HC Workers will not get vaccinated until mid-February.   I guess for us in the general population I am now hoping by summer??  it has finally hit me that there will be no cruising for people like me until probably 2022 which is fine- at least I know now.

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/pennsylvania-covid-vaccine-registration-coronavirus-20210107.html

TeeRick - an update as of this afternoon for my county in Arizona.

Multiple drive up and on site vaccination centers set up.  Walgreens/CVS starting on site vaccinations.  Frontline workers getting scheduled.  Currently appointments are for two weeks out - 22nd as of now - with additional stations coming on line using school and Stadium parking lots when supply ramps up.  We are lucky as 68F/20C and sunny every day now for weeks..

The next group for us expected to take thru most of March is those over 75 and all essential workers.  Includes everything from postal, delivery, grocery, almost any store that is open.

Next in mid March is over 65 and those with health issues.  General population starting in April with no date estimate.

Complete end of May.

For this to happen AZeneca and/or J&J vaccines will be needed.  Hospitals here have few open beds, but staff is exhausted.  Some elective surgeries being postponed.

Have no idea what this suggests for a date for cruises to resume.

Someone with a medical background can interpret the data.

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4 hours ago, zitsky said:

Did anyone hear or see Dr. Fauci say that the current vaccines won't work for the South Africa variant?  I was watching news at the doctor's office this morning.  Not sure what channel.

 

Via CBS news..."might not"

COVID vaccines "might not" work as well on South African strain, scientists warn - CBS News

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12 hours ago, Homosassa said:

Personal experience in Citrus County, Florida.

 

We have been told that vaccines will be available on a first come, first come basis at one county park starting today (Jan 7) and Saturday (Jan 9).

 

Through word of mouth we hear that there was a soft opening on Wednesday and vaccines were given out. It was suppose to be a trial run and limited to certain groups (Meals on Wheels volunteers, law enforcement, etc). However, residents local to the park also received the vaccines.

 

Hearing this, we decided to take the 45 minute ride from our house to the park yesterday to see if the vaccine was still being given out. It wasn't, but law enforcement was at the park warning those that had already arrived to camp out for today that the residents would be told to leave when the park closed last night and that no parking would be allowed on the road leading to the park entrance.  

 

It was getting ugly with certain loud mouths arguing that they would not be forced to leave the line.

 

We probably will not even attempt to obtain a vaccine today.

 

Instead, we learned that the Publix supermarket chain will have vaccines available in our county and serval other counties. Appointments will be needed.

 

The website is suppose to open today for appointments, There is no announced time for the website opening so we are checking frequently.

I was able to access the Publix online signup through perseverance. I was vaccinated at Publix today. Very well run. Arm sore so far. People were walking in and expecting to be vaccinated.

we tried several times before this and ran into massive car lines with police keeping the peace. 5:30 am for these 1st come 1st served.  That experience was horrible

Edited by Caymus88
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7 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Here is the most recent update from the US CDC on allergic reactions to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7002e1.htm?s_cid=mm7002e1_w

 

In the Moderna trials it looks like there were a few inflammation cases in people who had facial fillers so JMO I wouldn't be surprised to see more of that reported as they continue with vaccinations:

 

"The Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, which was given emergency use authorization in the US on December 18, may cause some side effects in people who have facial fillers, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has reported.

 

At the meeting of the advisory panel—known as the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC)—on December 17, FDA medical officer Rachel Zhang reported that two people developed facial swelling after vaccination during Moderna's phase 3 trial. One person, a 46-year-old female, had dermal fillers injected about six months before getting the vaccine. The other, a 51-year-old female, had undergone the same procedure two weeks before vaccination.

 

According to STAT, which live-blogged the meeting, a third person who took part in the Moderna trial developed lip angioedema (swelling) about two days after vaccination. Zhang said the person had received prior dermal filler injections in the lips, and had reported a "similar reaction after a previous influenza vaccine."

 

https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/moderna-vaccine-facial-filler

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7 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Here is the most recent update from the US CDC on allergic reactions to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7002e1.htm?s_cid=mm7002e1_w

 

TeeRick! Thank you so muçh for thinking of my post. The autoimmune angle covers many millions of people.

 

I will read your link carefully. I have no doctor, can not get one here in Ontario, none to be had. So walkins or emerg my only option.

 

The Hashi thyroid is very widespread and under reported and definately under treated.  Being an autoimmune disease it could be the largest category.

 

Thank you for sharing you personal state with this vexing illness.

 

In health to you TeeRick!

 

A fine good evening!

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4 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Here is the most recent update from the US CDC on allergic reactions to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7002e1.htm?s_cid=mm7002e1_w

 

Thanks...

My daughter had a bad reaction to vancomycin during surgery about 15 yrs ago.  It wasn't Red Mans syndrome - she got hives, bronchial spasms and had a drop in blood pressure.  Now I am wondering if it was an ingredient in the vancomycin which may also be the one causing issues in the mRNA vaccines.  I have suggested she wait until another platform is out.  Surgery was done at a Naval Hospital so I really can't get much other information.

M

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1 hour ago, Caymus88 said:

I was able to access the Publix online signup through perseverance. I was vaccinated at Publix today. Very well run

Yay!  I am wondering under this system if you are able to make a follow up appointment right then and there for your second shot or do you have to fight for another online appointment later?

M

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10 hours ago, dreaminofcruisin said:

 

I agree with your post and I had anticipated their would be a shortage so not everyone could get it when it was first available. I think the frustration of a lot of us is not even that WE aren't getting the vaccine yet....it's that NOBODY is getting it. When you see that your state has only used 20 some percentage of available vaccines....you have to ask why? I totally expected them and really still do expect this SHOULD be happening.... they should be using close to 100% of what they are receiving and just waiting for the next batch....

Wondering where you live.  Are you saying the nobody is being vaccinated?

Here there is a website and as said only first responders so far.  No promotion except to ask people to register on the website and they will be emailed or called when vaccine is available.

My only frustration is holding back 50% of the doses so the second shot is guaranteed.

In our system the second appointment when you receive the first shot.

Edited by Arizona Wildcat
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7 hours ago, mimbecky said:

Yay!  I am wondering under this system if you are able to make a follow up appointment right then and there for your second shot or do you have to fight for another online appointment later?

M

We have to fight for another spot.  The second vaccine should not be given early either

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16 hours ago, nocl said:

The issue there is mostly with the end institutions.  The amounts allocated for the first dose have largely reached their end locations, but some of them have been very slow in dosing. In some cases the delay is because personal have declined getting vaccinated (in some cases because they are concerned about the vaccine in others because they have already been infected and feel that the they do not need the vaccine now), but the institutions are still holding on to those doses (I suspect waiting until the next group is authorized).

 

A percentage of the doses are for the second injection.  Depending upon how the use is calculated then 50% use of the allocation at this time would constitute full use since the second doses would just be starting.

 

Some institutions have been slow because of the work load of the staff and as a result they are setting the schedule to avoid the potential of multiple staff members being off due to reactions.  More of an issue during the second dose.

 

 

 

As I understand the process, the CDC not the States are holding back the second shots, so this doesn't explain 70 to 80 percent of the vaccine still sitting in storage at the state level.  It's amazing that the states did not have a better plan actually injecting people. When I see that CVS or Kroger is going to hire a couple thousand people to help vaccinate people I'm shocked.  I can't believe that they haven't already hired and trained those people to have them ready as soon as the vaccines arrived at the state level.  I was also shocked at the excuse that this happened over the holidays, this should be a 24/7/365 operation.  I suspect this will slow down even more when the workload doubles to administer the second dose.

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10 hours ago, ABoatNerd said:

 

TeeRick! Thank you so muçh for thinking of my post. The autoimmune angle covers many millions of people.

 

I will read your link carefully. I have no doctor, can not get one here in Ontario, none to be had. So walkins or emerg my only option.

 

The Hashi thyroid is very widespread and under reported and definately under treated.  Being an autoimmune disease it could be the largest category.

 

Thank you for sharing you personal state with this vexing illness.

 

In health to you TeeRick!

 

A fine good evening!

Here is what the US CDC says about the current approved mRNA vaccines and various underlying medical conditions (Go to link below).

 

And here is the section from that reference on autoimmune conditions:

"People with autoimmune conditions may receive an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. However, they should be aware that no data are currently available on the safety of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines for them. Individuals from this group were eligible for enrollment in clinical trials."

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations/underlying-conditions.html

 

 

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1 hour ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

As I understand the process, the CDC not the States are holding back the second shots, so this doesn't explain 70 to 80 percent of the vaccine still sitting in storage at the state level.  It's amazing that the states did not have a better plan actually injecting people. When I see that CVS or Kroger is going to hire a couple thousand people to help vaccinate people I'm shocked.  I can't believe that they haven't already hired and trained those people to have them ready as soon as the vaccines arrived at the state level.  I was also shocked at the excuse that this happened over the holidays, this should be a 24/7/365 operation.  I suspect this will slow down even more when the workload doubles to administer the second dose.

Yes that is the defined process.  But that is not the practice uniformly.  Some states like my state (PA) are holding back doses.  And so are counties.  And individual hospitals.  This is a lot of mistrust of a currently flawed distribution system so holding doses is a hedge against not receiving second doses.  But the thing is, the second dose probably does not have to be given in the exact time frame (either 3 or 4 weeks later).  A booster dose (second dose) will very likely work even if given later than recommended based on many other vaccines.

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17 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Geez, how fast do people expect research to work.  The fact that data is getting out so quickly is unprecedented. It really is amazing at the speed and amount that people are cranking studies out (quality is a separate issue...). 

 

Basically, no one knows, because no one has been able to gather and analyze data that fast.  What is fast is computer modelling, and computer modelling has shown some worrisome findings, which is why people are worried about the SA variant, and not so much the UK variant, while we really don't have any experimental data yet on either.  I'm sure someone will publish a paper soon with convalescent plasma and we will have a better idea, but it'll take some time as the labs that can do those studies are probably fighting tooth and nail right now to be the first to get samples of the SA strain, but it is definitely something that public health should be keeping on their radar for the time being.

 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.23.424283v2.abstract

 

So basically, scientists chose a monoclonal antibody (1 type of antibody) for potential therapy derived from convalescent plasma due to the efficacy in blocking the virus-human cell binding.  It blocks the very region where the virus attaches to human cells very strongly, so was chosen for a high likely hood of blocking the virus binding in real life.

 

The current SA strain has several mutations in this region, where it interacts with human cells, which is the huge concern.  Computer modelling shows this helps the virus bind easier to human cells (which may explain its infectivity), and computer modelling also shows that it basically completely prevents binding by that one antibody chosen, which may mean it will no longer bind in real life (remember, computer modelling, not real life testing data).

 

Humans develop polyclonal antibodies (many many types of antibodies) in response to real challenges by virus and by the mRNA vaccine.  So at least other antibodies produced should bind to other areas of the spike protein that aren't mutated, but you would expect the most effective antibodies to be the one that targets this same binding region. So that's why there is some concern that the vaccines won't work as well, as well as the hope that the vaccines will still work at least to some degree if not fully.

 

So that's why scientists are worried that there may be decreased effectiveness.  There is evidence there may be, but it is fairly weak evidence on the scale of weak to strong.  The possibilities still include 1) the vaccine will still be just as effective, 2) the vaccine will be somewhat effective but less so, and 3) the vaccines will be completely ineffective.   There is just not enough data right now. 

 

They are not just fear mongering though, this is definitely very concerning (i am concerned) and something world leaders and world public health departments should be monitoring.  Also completely unknown is the severity of these strains.

 

Honestly though, worst case scenario is probably they'll have to make a future cocktail mRNA vaccine with both or more variants, which is technologically trivial.  With solid safety data from the first vaccine it should hopefully get rushed through very quickly.

This is an informative post summarizing the situation and concerns - particularly at the level of monoclonal antibody therapy.  And maybe convalescent plasma therapy -unless it comes from people previously infected with the S.Africa variant - then that should work. 

 

But what about vaccines? As stated the vaccines produce many antibodies (polyclonal) and hopefully protect at least moderately against new variants.  But we also should consider that for viruses and viral vaccines it is not all about the antibodies.  There is a very significant protective T-Cell response too.  So even if the variant virus partially evades a polyclonal antibody attack and enters cells, the vaccine-primed T-Cells are ready to jump into the action.

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15 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

TeeRick - an update as of this afternoon for my county in Arizona.

Multiple drive up and on site vaccination centers set up.  Walgreens/CVS starting on site vaccinations.  Frontline workers getting scheduled.  Currently appointments are for two weeks out - 22nd as of now - with additional stations coming on line using school and Stadium parking lots when supply ramps up.  We are lucky as 68F/20C and sunny every day now for weeks..

The next group for us expected to take thru most of March is those over 75 and all essential workers.  Includes everything from postal, delivery, grocery, almost any store that is open.

Next in mid March is over 65 and those with health issues.  General population starting in April with no date estimate.

Complete end of May.

For this to happen AZeneca and/or J&J vaccines will be needed.  Hospitals here have few open beds, but staff is exhausted.  Some elective surgeries being postponed.

Have no idea what this suggests for a date for cruises to resume.

Someone with a medical background can interpret the data.

This is all good that Arizona is ramping up the vaccine.  They really need to as your state has been deemed by the media "the hotspot of the world".  Perhaps overly dramatic?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/arizona-deemed-hot-spot-world-amid-virus-surge-75094296

 

So we have all been told that going indoors in close contact with infected people and poor ventilation is feeding the surge everywhere.  But I am struggling to understand places hit very hard like Arizona and southern CA where the weather is very nice and people are still outdoors.  Why/How has the virus proliferated so much there?

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2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

This is all good that Arizona is ramping up the vaccine.  They really need to as your state has been deemed by the media "the hotspot of the world".  Perhaps overly dramatic?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/arizona-deemed-hot-spot-world-amid-virus-surge-75094296

 

So we have all been told that going indoors in close contact with infected people and poor ventilation is feeding the surge everywhere.  But I am struggling to understand places hit very hard like Arizona and southern CA where the weather is very nice and people are still outdoors.  Why/How has the virus proliferated so much there?

 

I've wondered the same thing.

 

Maybe the temps in AZ dipped down into the 80s, so people are sheltering inside until the cold-snap passes 😉

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3 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

This is all good that Arizona is ramping up the vaccine.  They really need to as your state has been deemed by the media "the hotspot of the world".  Perhaps overly dramatic?

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/arizona-deemed-hot-spot-world-amid-virus-surge-75094296

 

So we have all been told that going indoors in close contact with infected people and poor ventilation is feeding the surge everywhere.  But I am struggling to understand places hit very hard like Arizona and southern CA where the weather is very nice and people are still outdoors.  Why/How has the virus proliferated so much there?

 

I agree.  I wish someone would explain the reasons for the much higher surge in California.  Do a lot of people ignore the mask and social distancing guidelines?  Is it transmission at home from other family members? 

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2 minutes ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

I agree.  I wish someone would explain the reasons for the much higher surge in California.  Do a lot of people ignore the mask and social distancing guidelines?  Is it transmission at home from other family members? 

That's certainly a possibility.  Transmission among family members has certainly accounted for a lot of cases, but it's seldom mentioned in reporting.  

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25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Yes that is the defined process.  But that is not the practice uniformly.  Some states like my state (PA) are holding back doses.  And so are counties.  And individual hospitals.  This is a lot of mistrust of a currently flawed distribution system so holding doses is a hedge against not receiving second doses.  But the thing is, the second dose probably does not have to be given in the exact time frame (either 3 or 4 weeks later).  A booster dose (second dose) will very likely work even if given later than recommended based on many other vaccines.

 

The distribution in my local health department just amazes me.  Since December they have received 5900 doses but have only administered 1900 doses and supposedly have appointments scheduled for another 4000 doses.  I would hope they could administer 4000 doses in no more than 2 days, but I'm not optimistic because it's taken weeks to do 1900.

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1 minute ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

The distribution in my local health department just amazes me.  Since December they have received 5900 doses but have only administered 1900 doses and supposedly have appointments scheduled for another 4000 doses.  I would hope they could administer 4000 doses in no more than 2 days, but I'm not optimistic because it's taken weeks to do 1900.

Here in Georgia, the state has opened up vaccines to people over 65 starting Jan 11.  I called yesterday morning, got appointments for my wife and self for 11:30am Jan 11.  Looking forward to taking care of business for future travel.

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1 minute ago, 4774Papa said:

Here in Georgia, the state has opened up vaccines to people over 65 starting Jan 11.  I called yesterday morning, got appointments for my wife and self for 11:30am Jan 11.  Looking forward to taking care of business for future travel.

 

Michigan has also opened up to people over 65 but we're no where near that efficient.   The local health department tells me to call back after January 13 to try and make an appointment.  My local hospital says they will send me a notification when they are ready and I can try to schedule an appointment online.

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