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Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?


Ken the cruiser
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1 hour ago, sr4mjc said:

 

And on the flip side, how many would have died this year without a positive COVID test but being counted as such?  Terminal cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.  Blunt force trauma (yes, listed as secondary COD).. We have done a grave disservice in how the counting is being done, because we will never know the true morality of this virus. 

 

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1 hour ago, sr4mjc said:

 

And on the flip side, how many would have died this year without a positive COVID test but being counted as such?  Terminal cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.  Blunt force trauma (yes, listed as secondary COD).. We have done a grave disservice in how the counting is being done, because we will never know the true morality of this virus. 

All the death stats show mortality in 2020 far in excess of normal expected levels. [Edit: thanks @UnorigionalName ]. These are also higher than normal beyond the numbers attributed to Covid, indicating that Covid is more likely than not to be the difference. All those coroners around the country aren't making these things up.

 

Back to the thread: Those overall stats will be interesting to compare to 2021 when the vaccines will hopefully reduce both Covid deaths and the level of overall deaths -- less severe infections might have a big impact on other deaths.

Edited by mayleeman
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3 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

All the death stats show mortality in 2020 far in excess of normal expected levels. [Edit: thanks, @unoriginalname]. These are also higher than normal beyond the numbers attributed to Covid, indicating that Covid is more likely than not to be the difference. All those coroners around the country aren't making these things up.

 

Back to the thread: Those overall stats will be interesting to compare to 2021 when the vaccines will hopefully reduce both Covid deaths and the level of overall deaths--less severe infections might have a big impact on other deaths.

 

But how many are we causing in the future in the name of mitigation?  I'm not saying the virus deaths are not unfortunate, they are, but I fear we made it worse.  There were never going to be zero deaths, no matter what we did.  And the impact on children's education in the past year as well, we don't fully know the impact.  People got scared and reacted, that's what humans do but future impact I don't think was thought through either or at the very least pushed aside as something to deal with later. 

 

https://fee.org/articles/unemployment-during-the-pandemic-expected-to-cause-900-000-us-deaths-new-economic-study-finds/

 

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On 1/17/2021 at 7:35 PM, baldilocks said:

New Georgia state obtaining immune status for COVID:

 

Find a person who is infected, have then breathe or cough on you, if you live....you are immune.

 

Still no vaccine for us. The state is 'studying' setting up centralize immunization centers. Vaccination rate is below 30% for the already distributed vaccine doses. That means 70% is just sitting in freezers. 

Vaccine control is being 'handled' by large hospitals only. Since we have few hospitals in NE GA, no vaccine distribution for us.

Here in Glynn County, GA on the Atlantic coast, vaccinations got a slow start but have picked up.  I received my first Pfizer dose on 11 Jan, the first day of availably for over 65, my wife got her shot yesterday.  At first it was only the Public Health Department (where I got my shot) providing vaccines. I was told they were vaccinating 4000 per month.   Now our local hospital began vaccinations for over 65 yesterday and they expect to vaccinate 400 persons a day.   A local physician's office is soon to start vaccinations, as will Publix (grocery store), CVS, Walgreen's and more.  

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4 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

Probably, but it is still the airlines, cruise lines, or CDC would make that final decision.  Just because you have the vaccine that small percentage of you could still get sick and pass it on.  You may not die, but you can still get sick and pass it on.  The probability of it happening is lowered considerably, but it is not eliminated.  Expect a test requirement, but just a temperature check plus your name on a vaccine database may be sufficient.   We are speculating at this point.  

Yes, we are speculating and no mainstream cruise lines are cruising now.  However, that is likely to change prior to early Summer.

We have a TA cruise from Rome to Florida booked for OCT this year and expect to spend two weeks in Italy prior to that cruise back home.   If we are required to have COVID-19 test, despite our vaccinations, where will we go for the tests in Italy and what will they cost.   One person on these boards was charged almost $500 pp for a test.  Hopefully, Celebrity will provide or assist is with such a test.  

 

I expect to do some research on this and hopefully, there will be answers prior to final payment date for our cruise in April.

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8 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

It looks like the "over 50" Saga Cruises is the first cruise line to require passengers have a COVID vaccine before sailing with them. It will be interesting to see which other cruise lines will follow suit.

 

Saga Cruises first cruise line to require passengers get COVID vaccine (usatoday.com)

Ken,

Thanks for the link.

I see Saga will provide the testing.

Saga will also carry out pre-departure testing for all passengers, reduce capacity on both its ships and enhance its cleaning regime onboard.

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16 minutes ago, 4774Papa said:

Here in Glynn County, GA on the Atlantic coast, vaccinations got a slow start but have picked up.  I received my first Pfizer dose on 11 Jan, the first day of availably for over 65, my wife got her shot yesterday.  At first it was only the Public Health Department (where I got my shot) providing vaccines. I was told they were vaccinating 4000 per month.   Now our local hospital began vaccinations for over 65 yesterday and they expect to vaccinate 400 persons a day.   A local physician's office is soon to start vaccinations, as will Publix (grocery store), CVS, Walgreen's and more.  

Have to learn how to walk before you can run.  I think people have too high of expectations of their government.  Think like you are on a maiden voyage of a new cruise line on a brand new ship of a new design with a crew of people who never cruised before, maybe, you realize that is the situation you are in.  

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14 minutes ago, deadzone1003 said:

Have to learn how to walk before you can run.  I think people have too high of expectations of their government.  Think like you are on a maiden voyage of a new cruise line on a brand new ship of a new design with a crew of people who never cruised before, maybe, you realize that is the situation you are in.  

 

Israel vaccinated 10% of their population before Jan.

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4 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Israel vaccinated 10% of their population before Jan.

So their government operates more efficiently than ours.  No, they just got their vaccine early because Israel had some proprietary research that Pfizer needed for the vaccine.  I think they got 10 million doses.  Also, Israel is a pretty small country.  Once a vaccine arrives at Tel Aviv airport, it is 5-6 hours by car to anywhere in Israel.   

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17 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Israel vaccinated 10% of their population before Jan.

With a population less than half of New York City. Like Covid cases or deaths, the numbers are meaningless for comparison purposes unless you consider the number of vaccinations per "x" many people.

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8 hours ago, sr4mjc said:

 

And on the flip side, how many would have died this year without a positive COVID test but being counted as such?  Terminal cancer, Alzheimer's, etc.  Blunt force trauma (yes, listed as secondary COD).. We have done a grave disservice in how the counting is being done, because we will never know the true morality of this virus. 

Not that many.  There are some errors in any large database of this kind and some have made a big deal out of a few cases. But in reality  the error range is not that great more of a rounding error.

 

You had some issues with COVID not being caught in the early days and some deaths going uncounted (strokes for example before the clotting issues were identified), just as you had some clinical diagnosis that were counted without tests, largely because there was a lack of tests for the first few months.

 

At this stage the data is pretty good and the errors are not that large, for all people on both sides like shooting at the data.

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5 hours ago, Fouremco said:

With a population less than half of New York City. Like Covid cases or deaths, the numbers are meaningless for comparison purposes unless you consider the number of vaccinations per "x" many people.

cmon, useless comparisons are fun!  

 

Did you hear that rural Mongolia handled COVID-19 much better than the U.S.?

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6 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

cmon, useless comparisons are fun!  

 

Did you hear that rural Mongolia handled COVID-19 much better than the U.S.?

 

Well duh.  That's because there are no people in rural Mongolia.  It's all sand.

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15 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

It looks like the "over 50" Saga Cruises is the first cruise line to require passengers have a COVID vaccine before sailing with them. It will be interesting to see which other cruise lines will follow suit.

 

Saga Cruises first cruise line to require passengers get COVID vaccine (usatoday.com)


In all honesty my only surprise about this is that cruise lines have not announced similar much earlier. They have a duty of care to protect their staff and passengers so really should be aiming  to ensure all onboard are vaccinated. 

Though getting younger people from Asia were most of their workforce comes from vaccinated might be a challenge. 

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Partner reads to me a short article about research about the variants.  The vaccine might not be 100% effective but might give some protection.  (I don't have the source.)

 

I guess we are all gambling hoping that the vaccines are good.

 

I am debating about moving my FCC to a November 2021 cruise.  I think cruise with confidence offer ends Jan 31?

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Hopefully this downward trend continues as the holidays are finally behind us and a variety of vaccines squarely in front of us! Who knows, if the vaccines really start to flow around the world, maybe cruising will start back up in the next 4-5 months! I know, wishful thinking. But what can I say, I'm an optimist. 🙃

 

Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

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58 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

Perfect timing, huh?  

 

image.png.7cbec368a99cf38a44123a3e11f6375f.png

Yes this is a very interesting point.  And a very critical one in assessing the number of positive cases reported.  

The number of PCR cycles are really not standardized across the industry.  PCR cycles are inversely proportional to the amount of virus in the sample.  If a patient has active infection with symptoms then the viral load can be detected in less cycles (ie, 25).   The guidelines from the FDA and CDC and WHO are all over the place if you look up specific kits and instruments.   These were all approved by EUA and careful standardization was not employed across multiple manufacturers.  Many tests are done up to 40 or more cycles.  There will be a lot of false positives in tests that stretch the cycles above a certain threshold (33-35 according to CDC).

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90508

Edited by TeeRick
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