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CDC no sail order


mickrory
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18 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

I don't understand why CCL is trading at $15, and not at $5.

 

"In extending the ban on Thursday, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said that...

 

“These data have also revealed a total of 99 outbreaks on 123 different cruise ships, meaning that 80% of ships within U.S. jurisdiction were affected by COVID-19 during this time frame,” Redfield wrote in the letter. “In addition, 9 ships still have ongoing or resolving COVID-19 outbreaks on board.”

 

... He cited a study published in the Journal of Travel Medicine that said the basic reproduction rate, a number epidemiologists use to calculate the number of new cases expected from each infected person, was 14.8 aboard the Diamond Princess, one of the first cruise ships to experience an onboard outbreak. 

 

That means that every infected person aboard the Diamond Princess was estimated to pass it on to nearly 15 other people, on average..."

 

 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/cdc-bans-us-cruises-through-september-citing-expanding-coronavirus-outbreaks.html

 

 

 

I also don't understand why cruise stocks have held up as well as they have.  Even today, after there's time for the damning information in the No Sail Order to sink in, the cruise stocks are only down less than 2%.  My bet is that we will see cruise stocks revisit, or even break, their previous lows.

 

That said, I've been wrong about the market for months.  The disconnect between the economy and the stock market is astonishing.  I keep expecting a major pull-back, but the market just keeps going up.  Go figure.

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22 hours ago, indygirl99 said:

I called today to cancel a cruise on Princess that sails out of Florida in Feb 2021. 

 

I was asked if I wanted to wait a few more months to cancel as I would receive double my deposit when Princess cancelled as those voyages would not be sailing.  I asked "You are telling me Feb of next year will not sail?" and He repeated "correct and you would get double your deposit if you wait until we cancel". I again asked "Feb of 2021 is a no go?" and again I was told "correct".

 

Take it for what you want. I did cancel and was told he could not tell me how long it would take to get my deposit back. Not a problem as I filled with my credit card and already have a provisional credit which will become permanent in 30 days according to my credit card company.  

If this is actually true, it would be very upsetting to know Princess is still selling these cruises and taking deposits/final payments when they fully know they will never sail. 
 

Not saying they are the only ones doing it but its just wrong. Why not tell people so they can cancel flights and hotels and move to a different cruise. 

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3 hours ago, mnocket said:

 

I also don't understand why cruise stocks have held up as well as they have.  Even today, after there's time for the damning information in the No Sail Order to sink in, the cruise stocks are only down less than 2%.  My bet is that we will see cruise stocks revisit, or even break, their previous lows.

 

That said, I've been wrong about the market for months.  The disconnect between the economy and the stock market is astonishing.  I keep expecting a major pull-back, but the market just keeps going up.  Go figure.

As long as the FED is dumping money into the economy, buying commercial bonds, and interest rates remain as low as they are, no other place to invest.

 

Plus a lot of first time buyers thinking they know how to play the market, making totally irrational decisions.

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O.K., let me throw this out.  A vaccine becomes available, say in December. The CDC says they can open up for cruising with a lot of conditions like only 70% capacity, mask requirements, for social distancing, etc.  However, In addition,  every one must show proof that they have had the vaccine shot before they can get on the ship.  At one time, the rumor went out that you would need a doctor's note that you weren't positive but that was shot down pretty quick.  

 

The problem, of course, with this grand idea, is that if you are willing to get the shot, it can be a major problem getting it.  Look at all the long (read hours) lines just to get tested.  So, as we say down here in Texas, that dog wouldn't hunt anymore than the doctor's note did (lol)

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5 hours ago, WNcruiser said:

If this is actually true, it would be very upsetting to know Princess is still selling these cruises and taking deposits/final payments when they fully know they will never sail. 
 

Not saying they are the only ones doing it but its just wrong. Why not tell people so they can cancel flights and hotels and move to a different cruise. 

I am right there with you but as long as someone is willing to book they are going to take the money. It is cash flow for them and keeps them floating (pun intended).

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The cruise lines know a lot of people are playing the FCC/OBC game. Booking cruises they know are going to be cancelled to get the FCC and OBC. Shows you how desperate the cruise lines are for cash. Sacrificing future revenue for immediate cash.

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2 hours ago, indygirl99 said:

I am right there with you but as long as someone is willing to book they are going to take the money. It is cash flow for them and keeps them floating (pun intended).

 

And they got a few billion in high interest loans to limp into 2021 with, is it enough, I don't think they got enough to cover their , debt payments w/o some incoming coming in 2021, it will be ugly, worse than the airlines. 

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3 hours ago, Tucker in Texas said:

A vaccine becomes available, say in December. The CDC says they can open up for cruising with a lot of conditions like only 70% capacity, mask requirements, for social distancing, etc.  However, In addition,  every one must show proof that they have had the vaccine shot before they can get on the ship. 

This could be what is required before boarding.

 

"Researchers at Australia’s Monash University have developed a test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, that can provide results in 20 minutes." Source

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10 hours ago, Tucker in Texas said:

O.K., let me throw this out.  A vaccine becomes available, say in December. The CDC says they can open up for cruising with a lot of conditions like only 70% capacity, mask requirements, for social distancing, etc.  However, In addition,  every one must show proof that they have had the vaccine shot before they can get on the ship.  At one time, the rumor went out that you would need a doctor's note that you weren't positive but that was shot down pretty quick.  

 

The problem, of course, with this grand idea, is that if you are willing to get the shot, it can be a major problem getting it.  Look at all the long (read hours) lines just to get tested.  So, as we say down here in Texas, that dog wouldn't hunt anymore than the doctor's note did (lol)

 

Hey Tucker!  😀

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11 hours ago, Tucker in Texas said:

O.K., let me throw this out.  A vaccine becomes available, say in December. The CDC says they can open up for cruising with a lot of conditions like only 70% capacity, mask requirements, for social distancing, etc.  However, In addition,  every one must show proof that they have had the vaccine shot before they can get on the ship.  At one time, the rumor went out that you would need a doctor's note that you weren't positive but that was shot down pretty quick.  

 

The problem, of course, with this grand idea, is that if you are willing to get the shot, it can be a major problem getting it.  Look at all the long (read hours) lines just to get tested.  So, as we say down here in Texas, that dog wouldn't hunt anymore than the doctor's note did (lol)

The mask requirements and social distancing will be just temporary once they get more data on the efficacy of the vaccine.  Which will happen as more and more take it.  As for the vaccine, there are so many companies working on this I think we will see a huge surge in availability.  They are already talking about a huge amount of doses at onset.  I am sure you'll probably be able to go down to your local walmart or cvs and get a shot.  Some people will hesitate and rightly so as we have not developed a vaccine in such short a time so there is some concern about long term effects on the vaccine. I mean if you later find out that the vaccine was the cause of some other type of mortality related health issue then it would be bad.  Some people might wait a year just to make sure.  Others will get it right away and that alone should drop the number of people infected.  If we are 5 months away from a vaccine that's not that much longer to wait in the scheme of things. 

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20 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

...Then it goes one of two directions, and thus we are looking at middle of 2021 till things get to some table place:  vaccine rollout or leadership and behavioral changing.

 

 

I don't think I buy the "leadership and behavioral changing" as a possible solution. Do you think the Covid skeptics are suddenly going to change their minds if leadership changes? I don't see it. They'll continue to refuse to wear masks regardless of who their president or governor might be.

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1 hour ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

I don't think I buy the "leadership and behavioral changing" as a possible solution. Do you think the Covid skeptics are suddenly going to change their minds if leadership changes? I don't see it. They'll continue to refuse to wear masks regardless of who their president or governor might be.

 

I agree....there will always be another false conspiracy theory or boogeyman around the corner for them to go chase.....like - I heard Big Foot is going to start cruising Princess.....:classic_ohmy:

Edited by PrincessLuver
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2 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

I agree....there will always be another false conspiracy theory or boogeyman around the corner for them to go chase.....like - I heard Big Foot is going to start cruising Princess.....:classic_ohmy:

his name is Daryl, but, yeah 🥃

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47 minutes ago, richsea said:

I am a little confused. I have heard the the CDC only issues Guidelines, then how can they issue a No Sail Order?


Read the order. The authority of law under which the order is issued is indicated in the title block.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships-Second-Extension_07_16_2020-p.pdf

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Even if we have an effective vaccine on 1/1/2021 you would have to be able to produce and distribute about 7.8 billion shots around the world and 33 million needed in the U.S.  You're talking a year or more to get everyone a shot and how do you determine who gets it first? Then we have to hope it doesn't mutate like the flu every year. Not looking to be a wet blanket but just saying.

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12 minutes ago, nasa1974 said:

how do you determine who gets it first?

not to go into too much detail ... but we know someone who works in the entertainment industry, who gets tested in the morning

and has the results so they can work the next day

 

also know someone who works in a medical care facility - they get tested on Thursday, and will get the results back on Tuesday, after working on Fri, Sat, and Sun without either them or the facility knowing the results

 

Money talks ... follow the money

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7 minutes ago, voljeep said:

not to go into too much detail ... but we know someone who works in the entertainment industry, who gets tested in the morning

and has the results so they can work the next day

 

also know someone who works in a medical care facility - they get tested on Thursday, and will get the results back on Tuesday, after working on Fri, Sat, and Sun without either them or the facility knowing the results

 

Money talks ... follow the money

Hi voljeep,

Stay safe and healthy.

 

Marty

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4 hours ago, richsea said:

I am a little confused. I have heard the the CDC only issues Guidelines, then how can they issue a No Sail Order?

The CDC has enforcement power at the US boarders and at state lines between states.  Those are the powers they are using here.

 Within a state they can only advise, no enforcement power.

 

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15 hours ago, By The Bay said:

This could be what is required before boarding.

 

"Researchers at Australia’s Monash University have developed a test for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, that can provide results in 20 minutes." Source

There are quite a few 20 minute antibody tests, not so lucky for accurate tests for active infection.

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3 hours ago, nasa1974 said:

So true.

I would hope essential workers; nurses, doctor's paramedics, etc. 

I expect you will see a number of essential workers getting it as part of phase III trials.

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