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Royal Caribbean/NCL Merger?


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I had posted this idea in another thread. When they both came together for the the health panel I started to think that they maybe interested in combining forces. In that thread, someone who claimed to work as a consulting person within the cruise industry alluded to this being a possibility but also said that they couldn't say more.

 

In my mind, if NCL and Royal did this I feel that Royal would fold NCL ships into their brand as I would think Royal has better brand recognition and NCL ships have a lot of innovative features like Royal Caribbean. Celebrity would stay as is. Azamara and Oceania would combine forces probably under the Oceania banner and Silversea would join Regent. 

 

I guess anything is possible in this environment.

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20 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

IMO far more likely to see a large travel and entertainment company, US private equity fund or foreign sovereign wealth fund step up and take a controlling interest in a cruise line.  Would require a patient investor with a long term outlook.  Saudi's already own a piece of CCL.  Disney could consider expanding their cruise business.  Warren Buffet could buy all three publicly traded cruise companies with just a fraction of his cash on hand.   

 

21 hours ago, tert333 said:

I don't think a merger will happen unless there is a view from one of the companies that they may not be able to survive.   Survival will all depend on liquidity of assets and ability to meet ongoing expense requirements.  As the Covid pandemic further delays the start of cruising, the cruiselines may need to go back for more money.   So far they appear to have been able to get money relatively easily.  This will tighten up as we get further into the recession.    It will be easier to get money, if the business plan shows significant administrative cost savings through a combination/purchase.  As part of the plan, they may also have to commit to further reduction in ships as part of the plan, or even combination/elimination of lines(eg Oceania/Azamara...)

 

The next few months should tell a lot.   We will be in a better position in regards to a potential vaccine and the timing of availability.  While the news to date is positive, nothing is absolute until the phase 3 testing is completed.   All of the major cruiselines lines have the liquidity to take them into 2021.  If there are no satisfactory vaccines found by the end of the year, the cruiselines are going to have to implement more drastic measures. 

 

We are not seeing much movement from the CDC and other regulatory agencies.   It is clear they believe that cruising is not a safe method of travel in the middle of a pandemic.  Unless the pandemic is eliminated through a vaccine, I think you will see consolidation, bankruptcies in the industry.  Even in areas, such as Australia and Spain, where we thought that it was contained, hot spots are popping up.  

 

Lets all hope a vaccine is successful and available by the end of the year, so that more drastic measures by the cruiselines do not have to take place!!

What recession?

 

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