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We are booked Dubai to Mumbai Thanksgiving 2021.. If I pay in full by 8-31-20, I get a 10% reduction. I had planned on doing that and now with all the financial uncertainties, I am a little worried. A lot of big name companies are declaring bankruptcy and the cruise industry is not immune. I know that nobody has a crystal ball, but what would you do? I have about a month to decide. In most BK filings, prepaid deposits will probably be lost or you would get pennies on the dollar. It is not a king's ransom but still real money.

Thanks in advance and stay healthy out there!!

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I have booked 2021 cruises and used the 10% inducement.  My confidence in SS was reinforced when I cancelled several cruises in early June and had the substantial refunds within 40 days.  I would have worried had Silversea been independent (as was the case before RCL purchase.)  They clearly have access to capital and the ability to ride out this storm.  

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2 hours ago, A Tucson Guy said:

We are booked Dubai to Mumbai Thanksgiving 2021.. If I pay in full by 8-31-20, I get a 10% reduction. I had planned on doing that and now with all the financial uncertainties, I am a little worried. A lot of big name companies are declaring bankruptcy and the cruise industry is not immune. I know that nobody has a crystal ball, but what would you do? I have about a month to decide. In most BK filings, prepaid deposits will probably be lost or you would get pennies on the dollar. It is not a king's ransom but still real money.

Thanks in advance and stay healthy out there!!

Wait, the 10% deal has been around for a long time and is almost certainly going to be extended.

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I am booked on an October 2021 cruise which I sincerely hope goes--from the bottom of my heart.  I did pay in full when I booked it as I am that sure I want that particular cruise.  I have a medical background and am positive that we will have a vaccine by late October or early November of this year which is just what we need for people to get back on track (not all will take the vaccine).  This will be the game changer, and the ships will have to reimagine the muster and some of the dining procedures/options.  Also, disembarkation will have to be handled in a much more efficient manner.  We can all do it--providing they don't ask for some of the off the wall stuff I have heard about "pods" of people traveling together (by age) and other bizarre stuff.  We will all survive, I believe.  By that time they will have treatments too.  Take a deep breath.  I have!

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We're booked on the Origin 10/21. Due to an offer from a menagerie site that wasn't accurate, after a number of days and a GREAT SS agent, I got 5% off, only $1000 deposit fully refundable until next summer, $1000 OBC, plus they threw in another $600 OBC because of all the kerfufle. There's no way I'd pay in full and then get in line with other 'unsecured creditors' in case of bankruptcy. Just my experience but I like dealing directly with the cruise line. 

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Normally we take advantage when offered of the 10% full payment discount but things aren’t normal.   In fact while we have our eye on a cruise in September 2021 we’ve not even booked. We realize we might not be able to book the cruise but we are waiting this out for the time being.  

Edited by Randyk47
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Under normal circumstances we would have booked a TA in 2022. In fact, came within an ace of doing so a few weeks ago. However, notwithstanding the financial safeguards offered by SS and the section 75 protection on the credit card, we decided that we simply cannot justify the gamble. It makes me feel disloyal and a bit grubby to say this but I really don't see a return to the cruising we know in the next year or two. Maybe never. 

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We took a gamble and paid in full for the Grand Mediterranean voyage on the Shadow September 2021.  In hindsight, I probably should have just paid the low deposit to lock in the suite we wanted and given up the discount.  Keeping fingers crossed!

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On 7/28/2020 at 4:20 PM, A Tucson Guy said:

If I pay in full by 8-31-20, I get a 10% reduction. I had planned on doing that and now with all the financial uncertainties, I am a little worried. A lot of big name companies are declaring bankruptcy and the cruise industry is not immune. I know that nobody has a crystal ball, but what would you do?

 

I agree with Mr. Spectre that the 10% discount is likely to be continued month to month, and I suspect that you can cancel and rebook to get it at a later point - taking the chance that the underlying base price of your cabin has not gone up to a point where the 10% discount has been swallowed up by the price hike and the cabin you want is still available.   Like several others on this board, I have several fully paid cruises "in the bank" and I have a reasonable degree of confidence that even if RCCL faces financial difficulty, the last thing they are going to do is leave customers holding the bag.  The ability of any  service-oriented company to get additional  financing for a successful restructuring is dependent on a number of factors, but most important is the existence of  faithful customer base who will continue doing business.  According to a recent email from Silversea, over half of their current bookings are from repeat customers.  

 

But, I know many cruisers have reasonable reservations about keeping a lot of funds tied up that way.  Therefore, the "Double Bonus" promotion seems to me to be a "win-win."  For the customer, the sum of $1,000 is not so much to risk (well, compared to paying 100% in advance) and it preserves your reservation for the voyage and cabin you want at a known set price.  As some have noted, once ships start moving again, supply is likely to be restricted and demand will push price.  You can still re-evaluate your appetite for risk until 121 days before sailing and cancel then.   For the company, they can show the lenders that they have a commitment from their customers that is likely to bring in a nice chunk of revenue if they continue to work together.  

 

 

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On 7/29/2020 at 9:54 AM, Randyk47 said:

Normally we take advantage when offered of the 10% full payment discount but things aren’t normal.   In fact while we have our eye on a cruise in September 2021 we’ve not even booked. We realize we might not be able to book the cruise but we are waiting this out for the time being.  

We're booked for 10/21 and have until early June to get the $1000 deposit refund.

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1 hour ago, dawntrdr said:

The ability of any  service-oriented company to get additional  financing for a successful restructuring is dependent on a number of factors, but most important is the existence of  faithful customer base who will continue doing business. 

I doubt that plays even a small part in lending decisions. But in addition, what if there are no cruises in 2021?  From what others have said, the lines will be dead broke and no one will loan them anything. And as I and others have said, I don't want to be an "unsecured creditor" in that bankruptcy.

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1 hour ago, clo said:

I doubt that plays even a small part in lending decisions. But in addition, what if there are no cruises in 2021?  From what others have said, the lines will be dead broke and no one will loan them anything. And as I and others have said, I don't want to be an "unsecured creditor" in that bankruptcy.

Like I said earlier- you would never go to Las Vegas and wager $15,000 in order to maybe win $1,000. You could lose the $15,000.

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2 hours ago, clo said:

...the lines will be dead broke and no one will loan them anything.


Want to bet?  They’re already dead broke and yet, were able to raise money twice already.  I bet RCL would have absolutely no problem raising further capital to take them further into 2022 with $0 revenue.

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4 minutes ago, Stumblefoot said:


Want to bet?  They’re already dead broke and yet, were able to raise money twice already.  I bet RCL would have absolutely no problem raising further capital to take them further into 2022 with $0 revenue.

 

I agree. I think the scenario of no cruising in 2022 is unlikely. In any case,  RCL will have access to capital.  If we were talking about a family-owned, Monaco-based cruise line, I would be much more concerned about the SS future.  I am very hopeful – even confident -- that RCL will look after and nurture the excellent franchise they have with SS.

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59 minutes ago, Observer said:

no cruising in 2022

Oh, I think they'll be allowed to sail then...if there are any left.

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I Have little doubt that if cruising survives then SS will be in as strong a position as they can be considering the resources that they now have. I Think the likelihood of them going under is extremely unlikely unless cruising is lost for an extremely long time. The key question is what will be the appetite following the media storm regarding cruising and the spread of the virus?  If cruising resumed tomorrow without restriction then the ships may be filled 30% with us avid cruisers. The average cruise ship requires an occupancy of the upper 60s % to break even. Pricing is always an issue and I’ve heard many comments anticipating that prices will increase.
 

Consider this. The market is made up of several different types of cruisers. For simplicities sake, let’s break that down into 3 general types. The avid cruiser, the regular cruiser and the “we usually have a City or beach holiday but let’s give it a try” cruiser. It’s all a case of balancing opportunity and revenue. The avid cruisers will probably be happy to pay the going rate or a little more just to be able to cruise. The regular cruiser would probably pay around the same but be put off by any significant increase. The undecided would base their decision on price vs perceived risk. Before anyone feels the need to point it out I am fully aware that SS isn’t as price sensitive as many lines but it is still a factor.

 

Although these are very crude estimations, we need to break them down. Let’s think that 33% are avid cruisers  and will pay the same or a little more. Let’s say the regular cruisers are 33% and will pay around the same. That almost gets us to breaking even. I Know this argument is simplistic but I hope gives you food for thought. That hinges the possibility of making any profit on convincing the undecided to cruise.  Following all of the bad press and the reported (mis)?perceived dangers of cruising the enticement of the other 33%, failing an amazing PR coup by the industry, I Believe will be dependant very much upon value for money. My thinking is that large increases vs low confidence is not a good combination for the industry.

Such tough times must focus any companies attention on where improvements may be made. Perhaps SS (or RCI) might focus on the consistent failure of shore side services failing to live up to the fantastic service received onboard. . Perhaps they won’t. 
 

The age old principle of supply and demand also applies.

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I'm surprised OP had to ask a rhetorical question.   He probably knew the answer five seconds after hitting the send button.

 

To Davey.....I think your avid cruiser category is high.....way too high.   In this category, a good percentage will disqualify themselves for future cruises.   The cruise lines will lop off another percentage of the avid category implementing changes that will be a turn off.  A high percentage of would be cruisers will settle for land based holidays for a hundred different reasons.

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1 hour ago, saminina said:

I'm surprised OP had to ask a rhetorical question.   He probably knew the answer five seconds after hitting the send button.

 

To Davey.....I think your avid cruiser category is high.....way too high.   In this category, a good percentage will disqualify themselves for future cruises.   The cruise lines will lop off another percentage of the avid category implementing changes that will be a turn off.  A high percentage of would be cruisers will settle for land based holidays for a hundred different reasons.

I Tend to agree.

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1 hour ago, saminina said:

I'm surprised OP had to ask a rhetorical question.   He probably knew the answer five seconds after hitting the send button.

 

To Davey.....I think your avid cruiser category is high.....way too high.   In this category, a good percentage will disqualify themselves for future cruises.   The cruise lines will lop off another percentage of the avid category implementing changes that will be a turn off.  A high percentage of would be cruisers will settle for land based holidays for a hundred different reasons.

It is almost axiomatic that major changes within the international travel network will, necessarily, affect cruising. And that is now when we are only on the first lap of this very long race to overcome this virus.  Cruise ships' itineraries are of a complexity that doesn't apply to a fixed unit like a hotel or villa. Your villa will either be available or not depending on travel restrictions. Your cruise ship has the same issue multiplied by the number of ports multiplied by the nationalities of the crew and passengers. 

 

I still don't think it's really sunk in yet just how devastating this thing will be to parts of the tourism industry, not least because of changing passenger behaviours. 

 

People are wondering if their cruise in winter 2020 will sail. I'm wondering if any of the conventional cruise lines will survive and, if they do, whether 2021 will see cruising restart. Or 2022. Or later? 

 

How many people in the SS cruising demographic, for example, want to acquire a potentially life-threatening, highly infectious disease somewhere on the other side of the world? Or want to quarantine on board ship while it searches for a port? I think we need to start getting real about this 

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3 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

Cruise ships' itineraries are of a complexity that doesn't apply to a fixed unit like a hotel or villa. Your villa will either be available or not depending on travel restrictions. Your cruise ship has the same issue multiplied by the number of ports multiplied by the nationalities of the crew and passengers. 

That's actually part of the reason we booked this Galapagos cruise. We'll fly into Quito, Ecuador, cruise around that one set of islands and then fly out of Guayaquil, Ecuador. Nonstop from and to the US with a connection somewhere home.

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Tothesunset....Agree with your excellent resume.Every individual is different and cannot be categorised into groups of 33%.Your final paragraph sums up the situation from our point of view which after 21 years of cruising every year with SS we shall not consider further cruising until 2023 when hopefully Covid May be History.Fully aware this is one opinion which may be completely wrong!Keep safe TTS .

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15 hours ago, Tothesunset said:

How many people in the SS cruising demographic, for example, want to acquire a potentially life-threatening, highly infectious disease somewhere on the other side of the world? Or want to quarantine on board ship while it searches for a port? I think we need to start getting real about this 

 

Excellent summary above by Tothesunset, plus the wise comments by Davey, brimary, etc., etc. As to the original question as to whether to save 10% by paying up, in full, now, my basic response follows up with two key questions:

 

1. Do you like to gamble??

 

2. How deep and rich are your finances?  Can you afford to lose $10K, $15K, $20K, etc.?? Or, even more money??

 

Right now as I have detailed on some other threads on this Silversea board, the Royal Caribbean parent has some decent cash on hand currently and can easily stay afloat for another five, six, etc., months.  But, how well will their "cash burn" work if these situations are going to take much longer to get back to some form of "semi-normal"?  How long will their lenders who have been loaning them billions of dollars to finance current and future ships allow them "FLEXIBILITY" in not demanding payment for months and months ahead?  The questions go on.  And on!!

 

Personally in early March, we were paid up in full for our late January 2021 Galapagos Islands sailing on the new Silver Origin.  BUT, we pull the plug to avoid any risks and got our dull payment money back.  Too many questions and total uncertainty, including about how and if travel insurance and credit cards might protect us against the major risks from having that much money in the hands of a foreign-based corporation that might not be able to refund our cash.  

 

Your choice!!  For us 125% of a future promise on paper sounds and looks nice, but consider the risks very, very carefully.  To quote an important saying from history . . . "TRUST, BUT VERIFY"!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 240,075 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

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