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Cause for cautious optimism?


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11 hours ago, SusieQft said:

The results that when they ease up on the lockdowns, the virus comes back with another spike?  Hopefully the upcoming vaccine(s) will break the cycle, since permanent lockdown cannot be the answer.

In the USA we never locked it down properly which is unfortunate as we didn't have a national policy and when we opened things up we did it horribly.

 

We don't need a lock down to address this.  Simply we need the following.

 

1) Wear a mask and wear it in public places and when you can't social distance.

 

2) Social distance and while six feet is what is recommended more is better and not less.

 

3)  Avoid indoor restaurants and planes if you can.  

 

4) Wash hands often and each time thoroughly.

 

5) Avoid social gatherings and right now the number one spreader is actually small gatherings at homes where people know each other but don't live under the same roof.  Because someone does not show symptoms they assume all is well but it is not.


In addition better testing is needed; specifically at home tests and people need to avoid the upcoming holiday gatherings and we need contact tracing.  

 

We can't wait for the vaccine.  The reality is it won't be widely dispersed for several months.  

 

Unfortunately: I believe many people will blow off the idea of not getting together for social gatherings.  Already the airlines say they are adding flights for Thanksgiving due to demand which tells me things are going to get worse.  That is sad because our ICU's can't keep up with it. 

 

Again we can be so much better and a lock down would not be necessary if we would just use common sense and follow these easy to do things.

 

Keith

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All these recents posts prove only one thing:

 

The path forward is anything but clear.

There are many variables and many potential obstacles.

 

I have given up hope on my late April trip but I am optimistic that my late August Crystal cruise might actually take place.

 

Let's hope the the scientists underpromised and overperform.

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2 hours ago, Noggins said:

Well, I realize that those in the US have a little distraction going on at the moment but does that, alone, explain the difference in perspectives here?!

 

We are being told a vaccination programme is planned to start in early December. The cold temperature issue is not nearly as significant an issue as being made out ('vaccine is stable for up to 48 hours after defrosting') and a million per week will be vaccinated, starting with those in care homes, then front line staff, then in 5 year age bands. Now, for sure, it will take a while but if it happens like this it will be an extraordinary improvement on the situation. Yes, still lots of question marks but it sounds very hopeful.

 

I predicted yesterday a second half of '21 cruise restart. To demonstrate my confidence (but realism) we have booked an August British Isles cruise on a small ship. 

Well Adrian, looks like we are the optimists on our side of the pond. Absolutely agree that the very cold storage temperature is of no consequence, especially as plans are now being made for our national vaccination logistics, in advance of approval. Surely this displays a measure of confidence !!

Ditto the need for two doses...so what ?!! I recall that other established vaccines also require two separate jabs. It should be noted that many of the other vaccines in final phase trials are also two dose.

Like you, I am now optimistic, for the first time, that we may be able to enjoy our planned October 2011 Symphony cruise. Maybe join us Adrian...pretty please😀

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10 minutes ago, kool kruiser said:

Well Adrian, looks like we are the optimists on our side of the pond. Absolutely agree that the very cold storage temperature is of no consequence, especially as plans are now being made for our national vaccination logistics, in advance of approval. Surely this displays a measure of confidence !!

Ditto the need for two doses...so what ?!! I recall that other established vaccines also require two separate jabs. It should be noted that many of the other vaccines in final phase trials are also two dose.

Like you, I am now optimistic, for the first time, that we may be able to enjoy our planned October 2011 Symphony cruise. Maybe join us Adrian...pretty please😀

Oh no.  You can't go back in time.  LOL

 

I think you mean 2021.

 

October 2021 looks very promising.

 

It's still early to know if Pfizer Vaccine will achieve 90% success rate but if it can and if others can or somehow more resources be put into this one we would be in a far better place.  The key is the logistics of production, distribution and giving the vaccinations and of course people willing to get them.

 

As our Dr. Fauci in the USA says, if we really get 90% success rate and given the percentage of people who  don't get symptoms to begin with we will be in a far better place than we are today.


We can't wait till we can cruise again.

 

Keith

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I've just read that I am approximately number 15 million in the line for the UK vaccine. Now, I've stood in some long lines at Disneyworld  in my time but never one that long.... 

The suggestion is that my turn will come around June!

 

(OK, Colin, which cruise....3rd or 11th?)

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4 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

In the USA we never locked it down properly which is unfortunate as we didn't have a national policy and when we opened things up we did it horribly.

 

We don't need a lock down to address this.  Simply we need the following.

 

1) Wear a mask and wear it in public places and when you can't social distance.

 

2) Social distance and while six feet is what is recommended more is better and not less.

 

3)  Avoid indoor restaurants and planes if you can.  

 

4) Wash hands often and each time thoroughly.

 

5) Avoid social gatherings and right now the number one spreader is actually small gatherings at homes where people know each other but don't live under the same roof.  Because someone does not show symptoms they assume all is well but it is not.


In addition better testing is needed; specifically at home tests and people need to avoid the upcoming holiday gatherings and we need contact tracing.  

 

We can't wait for the vaccine.  The reality is it won't be widely dispersed for several months.  

 

Unfortunately: I believe many people will blow off the idea of not getting together for social gatherings.  Already the airlines say they are adding flights for Thanksgiving due to demand which tells me things are going to get worse.  That is sad because our ICU's can't keep up with it. 

 

Again we can be so much better and a lock down would not be necessary if we would just use common sense and follow these easy to do things.

 

Keith

 

Keith from which University did you get your Master of Public Health?

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Keith

Whoops...2021 it is !!

The 90% is based on what has been achieved in the clinical trials, not a projection or vague hope...as good as it gets at this stage for ANY new vaccine. What is important, surely, is how this compares to previous expectations ( both from the boffins and also on this board) of much lower levels of effectiveness. Adrian and I are obviously glass half-full guys  !!

Adrian

Your place in the queue must be based on your very young age. Feel sorry for your good lady, who must be so much further behind all of us...

It's the 11th...go on, I know you want to...first round's on me !!

Colin

Edited by kool kruiser
grammar
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19 minutes ago, kool kruiser said:

Keith

Whoops...2021 it is !!

The 90% is based on what has been achieved in the clinical trials, not a projection or vague hope...as good as it gets at this stage for ANY new vaccine. What is important, surely, is how this compares to previous expectations ( both from the boffins and also on this board) of much lower levels of effectiveness. Adrian and I are obviously glass half-full guys  !!

Adrian

Your place in the queue must be based on your very young age. Feel sorry for your good lady, who must be so much further behind all of us...

It's the 11th...go on, I know you want to...first round's on me !!

Colin

Colin, yes 905 is based on the achieved results and they will do more testing for a few more weeks so we'll get to hear the results as the FDA in the USA reviews them as well as others from around the world. 

 

Yes expectations in my country were best case around 70%.

 

In our case 909% would be wonderful.  The key IMHO is for many people to get the vaccine as this increases the likelihood of good news and in the meantime just doing these simple things which are not rocket science but starts us in a much better place than we are today in my country and in several other places including the UK and other countries in Europe.

 

Keith

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5 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Two Universities:

 

The University Of Logic & Common Sense & The University of Following The True Science Experts

 

Keith, I have always really appreciated your cruise knowledge and willingness to share that knowledge; I think you have stepped over a line with espousing public health recommendations without inclusion of proper caveats.

 

Obviously, this is just my opinion.

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Just now, mrlevin said:

 

Keith, I have always really appreciated your cruise knowledge and willingness to share that knowledge; I think you have stepped over a line with espousing public health recommendations without inclusion of proper caveats.

 

Obviously, this is just my opinion.

Thank you.  I am not recommending people do anything that is harmful to themselves and almost all I've recommended comes from the CDC and people like Dr. Fauci.  Cruise Critic is people sharing opinion. 

 

Now if I recommended drinking Clorox or having surgery to put a light inside them that might be a different story.

 

Keith

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Yesterday Dr Fauci said that everyone that wants the vaccine should be able to have it by April.  That is cause for optimism!  This is not the only answer but it “is cause for optimism” as stated as the title of this thread!!!

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Unfortunately, for many of us want to be cruising folks a working vaccine needs to be in full use not only in our home country but anywhere we want to sail.  I can't see a trip to a country that isn't "fully" vaccinated - to me not being able to go home due to travel bans from country X is worse than not going on a trip at all. I'd like to see, for the US, the ability to do trips without visits to foreign port and have suggested on the board that we write to our Congress people and suggest that the law that prevents that be suspended until end of 2021 and then we can go from there. 

This is a very complex issue and doing every little thing helps - what is the life you save is your child's or spouses - worth wearing a mask and doing all the other things to me.

 

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1 hour ago, kool kruiser said:

Keith

Whoops...2021 it is !!

The 90% is based on what has been achieved in the clinical trials, not a projection or vague hope...as good as it gets at this stage for ANY new vaccine. What is important, surely, is how this compares to previous expectations ( both from the boffins and also on this board) of much lower levels of effectiveness. Adrian and I are obviously glass half-full guys  !!

Adrian

Your place in the queue must be based on your very young age. Feel sorry for your good lady, who must be so much further behind all of us...

It's the 11th...go on, I know you want to...first round's on me !!

Colin


agreed...I’m a glass-half full gal and was thrilled with the Pfizer announcement.  I was able to watch the breaking news when it was live on CNBC and hope for the best.

 

Nancy

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1 hour ago, ctjon said:

Unfortunately, for many of us want to be cruising folks a working vaccine needs to be in full use not only in our home country but anywhere we want to sail.  I can't see a trip to a country that isn't "fully" vaccinated - to me not being able to go home due to travel bans from country X is worse than not going on a trip at all. I'd like to see, for the US, the ability to do trips without visits to foreign port and have suggested on the board that we write to our Congress people and suggest that the law that prevents that be suspended until end of 2021 and then we can go from there. 

This is a very complex issue and doing every little thing helps - what is the life you save is your child's or spouses - worth wearing a mask and doing all the other things to me.

 

You are right.  In the end each person will have to figure out whether they want to travel.  This will vary by person and be based on several factors including how much risk they want to take and their own health situation.

 

For some travel might be totally out of the question because if the best is 90% effective there is the 10% risk.  The reality is we'll never have any country fully vaccinated unless the country makes it mandatory.

 

In our own country about 50% of the people indicate the willingness to be vaccinated. Some also say I want to but I don't want to be first in line.  Like all vaccinations the devil will be in the details and I will be interested in any known side effects and risks from the vaccine.

 

Assuming low risk we will want to get the vaccine.  

 

Still the issue comes down to how much risk you want to take.  For example as Dr. Fauci mentioned yesterday during his interview with Andrea Mitchell help is on the way.  His point is if it is 90% effective this coupled with the fact that a certain percentage of people are Asymtomatic means a percentage greater than 90% of the people would either be immune or if they got the virus wouldn't have symptoms.  I haven't seen that statistic yet but that would have been a question I would have asked Dr. Fauci.  

 

It will be interesting to see of the other companies ready around the same timeframe what their effectiveness is.  

 

In our case we do hope to cruise next August but time will tell.  We do have to be careful so we would never cruise without a vaccine.  

 

What makes me optimistic is not only because I believe in the glass is half full approach but I believe in the technology.  It was only a few months ago when a lot of people didn't think they could come up with an effective vaccine because no one has been able to do this in the past.  I do realize there are unknowns such as how long it will be good for and even are the percentage of success based on other factors such as age or your general health or does it apply to everyone?  


I guess I am also helpful that with each passing day they will come up with one or more medicines which would be highly effective to address symptoms for those who get the virus.

 

We have really come along way in a short time frame.  In March if someone showed up at the hospital with certain symptoms often they were sent home or if not sent home the approach was limited as this was all new.  Today so much more is known.

 

My disappointment is how so many people are ignoring the advice of the experts and ICU's in our country in many places are max'd out and we are putting way too much stress and demand on health care workers and putting their lives at risk.


On a related note happy to see the CDC update their information noting that Masks do not only help to curtail the spread of the virus but can also help to prevent one from getting one.

 

Now if we could only get everyone to wear the masks and be smart about the other recommendations we could all be in a much better place than we are in our country.  Wouldn't it be nice to be in the place where those in New Zealand and Australia are in along with some other countries versus where we are which is really bad.

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, ctjon said:

Unfortunately, for many of us want to be cruising folks a working vaccine needs to be in full use not only in our home country but anywhere we want to sail.  I can't see a trip to a country that isn't "fully" vaccinated - to me not being able to go home due to travel bans from country X is worse than not going on a trip at all. I'd like to see, for the US, the ability to do trips without visits to foreign port and have suggested on the board that we write to our Congress people and suggest that the law that prevents that be suspended until end of 2021 and then we can go from there. 

This is a very complex issue and doing every little thing helps - what is the life you save is your child's or spouses - worth wearing a mask and doing all the other things to me.

 

 

I agree.

 

Vaccines will be game changers.  However:

All countries will not reach the same level of herd immunity at the same time.  In addition, safety concerns versus economic benefits associated with foreign tourists will be viewed differently over a considerable period of time.

Since cruise itineraries are planned, advertised, and priced far in advance, it seems likely that voyages may be subject to revision by their departure dates.  For example, ports may be added or deleted, and tourists’ activities permitted in some ports may be limited.

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17 hours ago, SusieQft said:

I don't think this study addressed the issue of being around others who were not wearing masks, or not properly.  It seems almost impossible to avoid this if you are out in public, no matter how conscientious you are about wearing your own mask.  This only emphasizes the importance of EVERYONE wearing masks properly.  I do think your own mask provides you some protection, but not nearly as much as you would be protected if everyone else wore them also.  The people who do not wear masks, or not properly, are the reason that masks don't work.

That reasoning falls into what I call the double down theory of thinking by experts. 

 

 

Social welfare benefit experts do the double down when their solutions do not work by saying the reason is because we are not devoting enough resources (money) to the proposed solution.  More of the same will yield a different result.  see "great society"

 

The General (military experts) say we are not winning the war because we need to double down on the strategy   More of the same will get a different result.  See Vietnam, See first world war

 

The Expert is never wrong it is only that people are not doing it properly and we need to double down on the expert's solution. 

 

If the epidemiology expert proposes a solution and it is not working   then he is not wrong he just doubles down.  If suggesting wearing masks does not stop the spread  then double down and require people to wear masks.   If mandating people wear masks does not stop the spread then it is because they are wearing the wrong mask or wearing them improperly.  The Expert is never wrong it is that the people are not following his advice and he needs to double down on his solution.  More of the same will yield a different result.

 

The problem is never that the expert needs to question himself.  He only needs to blame the people for not following his solution properly.

 

The experts may be right but without any substantive statistical support for their answers perhaps a little humility would be in order and an acknowledgement that they might be wrong.

 

 

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23 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

Perhaps Keith & MrLevin ought to find a nearby Waffle House or Denny's and argue this one out face to face over a cup of coffee.  Or mask to mask.  Or just pistols at 15 paces.


outside!!!  Masks on and socially distanced!!! 😷😀

 

nancy

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@Wonderingabout, I don't claim to be omniscient, just reasonably well informed and possessing a moderate amount of common sense.  I honestly do not think that masks will solve the problem, or that they will provide the benefit of which they are capable.  There are just too many people who agree with you about it.  Too many people will not wear masks, or not properly, and therefore they will not be as helpful as they could be. 

 

We will not be able to collect the data to prove OR disprove that universal mask wearing would be helpful (at least in a "free" country) for the same reasons.  So I admit that my point of view (that it would help if EVERYONE wore a mask and properly) remains a theory.  Even so, and even if I am "doubling down" it does not necessarily mean I am wrong about it. 

 

One thing we do know for certain and can probably even agree upon is that if no one wears a mask, then masks will provide absolutely no benefit.

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3 hours ago, nancygp said:


outside!!!  Masks on and socially distanced!!! 😷😀

 

nancy

 

I think I will invite Keith and Mrs. Keith over for wine on the patio.  No waffle houses close (and I do miss Waffle House) and too far to Dennys.  Besides, neither of them serve wine.

Edited by mrlevin
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5 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

Perhaps Keith & MrLevin ought to find a nearby Waffle House or Denny's and argue this one out face to face over a cup of coffee.  Or mask to mask.  Or just pistols at 15 paces.

 

Nope, this never ending match can only be resolved by:

 

A Dance Off!

 

Best two out of three of the following:

 

The Twist

The Swim

The Freddie

 

Oh and: Frankie says relax.

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

Perhaps Keith & MrLevin ought to find a nearby Waffle House or Denny's and argue this one out face to face over a cup of coffee.  Or mask to mask.  Or just pistols at 15 paces.

 

 

Maybe over Zoom rather than over a cup of coffee.  😄  LOL.

 

Keith

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9 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

I think I will invite Keith and Mrs. Keith over for wine on the patio.  No waffle houses close (and I do miss Waffle House) and too far to Dennys.  Besides, neither of them serve wine.

Wine is great but let's wait till it is safe to do this.  Not now.  LOL.

 

Haven't been to a Denny's in 15+ years.  

 

When we were in College, we went to a Waffle type house usually late a night.  They employed former convicts. Used to stop by an International House of Pancakes about 40 years ago until I noticed roaches crawling around.  Ugh!!  

 

A restaurant would be great but not happening until we feel it is safe to do so.  Haven't eaten out since we returned home in mid-March.  Why?  I follow the science experts.  I had to throw that in but I do.  

 

Another new record and not a record we should be proud of in the USA.  Not Gold Medals, not Consecutive wins, not the number of recent College Graduates.  


Rather over 145,000 reported COVID-19 cases yesterday.  Very scary.  We are in the dark period and could get far worse with USA Thanksgiving two weeks from today and Chanuakah Christmas and New Years coming up.

 

So, I'll take a rain check for now.

 

But will be happy to share a bottle of wine when we are all back to a normal life including sailing with Crystal Cruises again.  Can't wait.  If this was a movie I would hold down on the fast forward button to get to the happy scenes.  😄

 

Keith

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20 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

In our case 909% would be wonderful.  The key IMHO is for many people to get the vaccine as this increases the likelihood of good news and in the meantime just doing these simple things which are not rocket science but starts us in a much better place than we are today in my country and in several other places including the UK and other countries in Europe.

 

Keith

My turn Keith😀. We all would be happy with this percentage !

Otherwise, agree with all you say in this and subsequent posts.

One other optimistic note. If 90% effectiveness proves correct, then I understand that herd immunity may come into play?

Colin

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