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Cause for cautious optimism?


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On 11/11/2020 at 4:25 AM, Keith1010 said:

In the USA we never locked it down properly which is unfortunate as we didn't have a national policy and when we opened things up we did it horribly.

 

We don't need a lock down to address this.  Simply we need the following.

 

1) Wear a mask and wear it in public places and when you can't social distance.

 

2) Social distance and while six feet is what is recommended more is better and not less.

 

3)  Avoid indoor restaurants and planes if you can.  

 

4) Wash hands often and each time thoroughly.

 

5) Avoid social gatherings and right now the number one spreader is actually small gatherings at homes where people know each other but don't live under the same roof.  Because someone does not show symptoms they assume all is well but it is not.


In addition better testing is needed; specifically at home tests and people need to avoid the upcoming holiday gatherings and we need contact tracing.  

 

We can't wait for the vaccine.  The reality is it won't be widely dispersed for several months.  

 

Unfortunately: I believe many people will blow off the idea of not getting together for social gatherings.  Already the airlines say they are adding flights for Thanksgiving due to demand which tells me things are going to get worse.  That is sad because our ICU's can't keep up with it. 

 

Again we can be so much better and a lock down would not be necessary if we would just use common sense and follow these easy to do things.

 

Keith

The federal government had no authority to "lock down" the nation.  That authority rests with the states, and in particular those governors who have been given extraordinary powers to dictate measures they believe will slow the transmission of Covid.  

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9 minutes ago, almostretired said:

The federal government had no authority to "lock down" the nation.  That authority rests with the states, and in particular those governors who have been given extraordinary powers to dictate measures they believe will slow the transmission of Covid.  

Yes.  I've know that and have posted that a few times already.

 

We could have had one national strategy which encouraged states to lock down and provided lots of other guidelines including real quarantines. 

 

No national strategy and too many mixed messages.

 

And there were some things that could have been done nationally as part of a recommended lock down which some countries did.  For example a lock down of flights for a couple of weeks other than those used to transport goods.  This would have included both domestic and international flights.

 

Keith

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In my perfect world, there would be cruises for those who are sick of the whole Covid thing and know masks don't work, then there would be cruises for those who don't think it's over and are cautious. Everybody plays, everybody wins.

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6 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

 

A restaurant would be great but not happening until we feel it is safe to do so.  Haven't eaten out since we returned home in mid-March.  Why?  I follow the science experts.  I had to throw that in but I do.  

 

Keith

 

No restaurants at all?!?!  We have been going to local restaurants for over five months without any issues at all.  One of our favorites is called Mulligans which is right on the golf course.  We sit out on the patio eating breakfast or lunch enjoying the great weather and occasional great golf shot.   We have been to at least a half dozen local restaurants supporting the local economy, felt safe in all of them.  

 

Tonight we are having 18 for wine club which will be an indoor/outdoor event; will be interesting to see which is more popular; last months wine club was just indoors with a dozen and worked fine.

 

In addition to your respiratory health, don't forget your mental health.

 

Marc

 

PS There are only two states in the USA - Texas and Ain't Texas.

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5 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

No restaurants at all?!?!  We have been going to local restaurants for over five months without any issues at all.  One of our favorites is called Mulligans which is right on the golf course.  We sit out on the patio eating breakfast or lunch enjoying the great weather and occasional great golf shot.   We have been to at least a half dozen local restaurants supporting the local economy, felt safe in all of them.  

 

Tonight we are having 18 for wine club which will be an indoor/outdoor event; will be interesting to see which is more popular; last months wine club was just indoors with a dozen and worked fine.

 

In addition to your respiratory health, don't forget your mental health.

 

Marc

 

PS There are only two states in the USA - Texas and Ain't Texas.

DId you realize you and I live in the same community?  We might even be neighbors.  LOL.

 

I didn't pick up on this before until you mentioned Mulligans and then I looked at your details.  So I guess we could enjoy wine social distanced sometime. 

 

No restaurants because the scientists that I follow don't recommend inside dining because  they say even with social distancing the more time you spend at them increases your risk of getting the virus.  Not saying you will but we will not take the chance.  Yes, very familiar with Mulligan's.  I have two neighbors who got COVID-19.  I think the odds are from eating at a restaurant.

 

We haven not been to one restaurant since we arrived home in mid-March.  Got delivery from Yahgh's twice but actually started to make our own Pizza again so no need for that.  However, I believe in supporting local restaurants and we did vis-a-vis contributions which were collected on the Community Face Book Page.  I am happy to do this at any time.  We want them to survive so take out or delivery would be our preference.

 

Our neighborhood wine club is not having events right now.  Some like the book club uses Zoom.

 

I am an instructor at the Fitness Center but won't be teaching inside at this time.  I did teach outdoors in July with 12 feet of social distancing and masks worn before and after class.

 

Mental health is great thanks to the technology we have to keep in contact with lots of people and because I am with my wife.  See lots of people from a distance when out walking, running and on zoom. 

 

Keith

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I have also been dining out since June and while most has been outdoors I have dined indoors about 7 times.  I have spent 25 nights in hotels.  I am very impressed with the steps taken to insure a clean and safe experience.

 

IATA (International Air Transport Association) commissioned a recent study (looking back at the people who have flown since masks became mandatory) and the risk of getting covid on a plane is 1 in 27 million.   Even if it were 1 in 2.7 million I think its fine to fly.  I have three relatives who work for legacy carriers in the US.  They fly weekly and are cumulatively in the air more than the casual or even business traveler.  One, an airline Captain said he feels safer in his plane with the Hepa filters than any where else, except home.

 

Not one nation stopped air traffic and to suggest that we halt air traffic for a month would be a disaster 

 

BTW, I always wear a mask, except when dining of course, I always social distance and I will not be a prisoner in my home.  My mental and emotional health would suffer.  I go to farmers markets, craft shows (all outdoors) I go to museums and shopping.  I have friends who have been out once since March.  They have food delivered.  I can hear it in her voice she is starting to get depressed.  They are not even in a high risk group but they seem to think that covid is going to swoop in and attack them if they leave their property.  
 

Sorry I am rambling but my TA called me in tears (she is a personal friend) because for the first 6 months she has sold 7 airline tickets (no commission just a $30.00 service charge) and one trip to Cancun.  She cannot keep her doors open and she is putting her personal savings into the business.  She had a group for May and the cruiseline just cancelled it.  She is desperate.

 

I believe going out to dinner, going to a mall, shopping and going to museums will help people survive.  
 

Sorry for the rant.  BTW, I LOVE Waffle House sadly none near me.  And yes, I love IHOP also and just dined there, indoors, on Saturday.

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28 minutes ago, cruisr said:

I have also been dining out since June and while most has been outdoors I have dined indoors about 7 times.  I have spent 25 nights in hotels.  I am very impressed with the steps taken to insure a clean and safe experience.

 

IATA (International Air Transport Association) commissioned a recent study (looking back at the people who have flown since masks became mandatory) and the risk of getting covid on a plane is 1 in 27 million.   Even if it were 1 in 2.7 million I think its fine to fly.  I have three relatives who work for legacy carriers in the US.  They fly weekly and are cumulatively in the air more than the casual or even business traveler.  One, an airline Captain said he feels safer in his plane with the Hepa filters than any where else, except home.

 

Not one nation stopped air traffic and to suggest that we halt air traffic for a month would be a disaster 

 

BTW, I always wear a mask, except when dining of course, I always social distance and I will not be a prisoner in my home.  My mental and emotional health would suffer.  I go to farmers markets, craft shows (all outdoors) I go to museums and shopping.  I have friends who have been out once since March.  They have food delivered.  I can hear it in her voice she is starting to get depressed.  They are not even in a high risk group but they seem to think that covid is going to swoop in and attack them if they leave their property.  
 

Sorry I am rambling but my TA called me in tears (she is a personal friend) because for the first 6 months she has sold 7 airline tickets (no commission just a $30.00 service charge) and one trip to Cancun.  She cannot keep her doors open and she is putting her personal savings into the business.  She had a group for May and the cruiseline just cancelled it.  She is desperate.

 

I believe going out to dinner, going to a mall, shopping and going to museums will help people survive.  
 

Sorry for the rant.  BTW, I LOVE Waffle House sadly none near me.  And yes, I love IHOP also and just dined there, indoors, on Saturday.

I will have to see if I can put my hands on it but I was watching one of the leading scientists the other day who noted that new information shows the spread of COVID-19 on some flights in Europe.  I don't think we know enough yet but unless flights were required I would not fly now.  

 

Many countries shut down flights for days, weeks or longer.

 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/lifestyle/travel/the-full-list-of-countries-where-commercial-passenger-flights-are-grounded-due-to-the-coronavirus-1.996215

 

It's too late now but I always thought a shut down of interstate traffic (vehicles except for transport of goods for a short time and flights for a couple of weeks would have been in order after giving sufficient notice to people).  

 

When I arrived to the USA in March I was shocked no questions on where we had been and not even temperature checks.  Not that this was the end for all but just surprised.  


Some countries also have really quarantines if you enter them such as assigning you to specific hotels.

 

The way we did quarantines didn't work.

 

The bottom line is the proof is in the pudding.  We never got full control of this as countries ranging from Australia to New Zealand to Japan to the UAE did.  

 

The biggest challenge now is the holidays and the gatherings.

 

We are in about the worst place we could be as the statistics show with the numbers getting worse each day and it's not even Thanksgiving yet.

 

And I do believe there is a lot that can be done so people survive without having to dine in restaurants or do other things which will likely make things worse.  

 

I could go on and on but I don't want to rant either.

 

P.S.  If the vaccine statistics which Pfizer released turn out to be correct and if a few other companies can come close to this then I am cautiously optimistic that we will be back to cruising sooner rather than later and things could get lots better.  Time will tell.

 

Keith

 

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1 hour ago, claudiaYVR said:

Unfortunate developments on the 1st SeaDream I Caribbean cruise:

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5732/

 

BTW, US friends stay safe during your upcoming Thanksgiving holidays. Us Canadians have seen a spike in Covid in the few weeks since ours.

Setting records here in Ontario, and what was two weeks ago?? Hallowe'en. And what did Public Health authorities ask people not to do? Go to Hallowe'en parties. Where have they traced numerous outbreaks to............. So frustrating and so unnecessary! 

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Larry you are so right. 
 

We are close to 150,000 people per day in the USA. If this continues hospitals will be overrun. They say don’t have Thanksgiving get togethers. Some places are spiraling out of control.  Guess what many won’t listen about the get togethers and things will get far worse.  As I mentioned airlines here added flights fir Thanksgiving which tells me we have a disaster in the making. 

it was not surprising Seadream would have an issue. Why would anyone cruise right now?

 

It is time for people to act responsible.  

 

Keith

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Clearly there is a scale issue but the numbers and rate the US and European countries are hitting is unbelievable to those of us in Australia and New Zealand 

 

Here’s Australia’s data for the whole pandemic - our population is 25.5 million and we’ve had 27,698 cases so far with 907 deaths in total - that’s been achieved by taking serious steps such as essentially closing our borders. There is very limited travel in and out of Australia, enforced social distancing through limits on group sizes in homes, venues and restaurants etc. we had one State, Victoria where Melbourne is, with major (by our standards) and they had a quarantine period and have got back on track

 

We are so lucky down here but it’s not without some effort - my point being until countries and their citizens  get serious on the steps required there won’t be any progress on getting this under control - but when they do it’s possible

 

 

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1 hour ago, Stickman1990 said:

Clearly there is a scale issue but the numbers and rate the US and European countries are hitting is unbelievable to those of us in Australia and New Zealand 

 

Here’s Australia’s data for the whole pandemic - our population is 25.5 million and we’ve had 27,698 cases so far with 907 deaths in total - that’s been achieved by taking serious steps such as essentially closing our borders. There is very limited travel in and out of Australia, enforced social distancing through limits on group sizes in homes, venues and restaurants etc. we had one State, Victoria where Melbourne is, with major (by our standards) and they had a quarantine period and have got back on track

 

We are so lucky down here but it’s not without some effort - my point being until countries and their citizens  get serious on the steps required there won’t be any progress on getting this under control - but when they do it’s possible

 

 

 

By comparison, Ontario has a population of 15MM people, somewhere over 80K confirmed cases and over 3,300 deaths. Sadly, something like 2,300 of those deaths have been in Long Term Care homes. And to add insult to injury, we now have our Premier arguing with his own health experts about the parametres for implementing any further preventive measures! And we have not even begun to talk about Christmas yet!! 

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We should follow what other successful countries do and Australia is one of them.  Just had along talk with my daughter about this yesterday who has lived in Sydney the past 3 and 1/2 years.  As Terry said they are smaller but then again we are a country of 50 states; some with a greater population than Australia and some smaller and none of our states are doing as well as Australia is.  

They implemented very strict guidelines, and they were in place longer than ours.  In other words we never did it long enough.  It wasn't too long after we started to do them that I remember someone saying let's open up by Easter.  Anyway they did it longer and their were penalties not following this.  We have very few if any penalties and if we do they are not enforced.  As they loosened them they didn't go full throttle as we did in certain places.  Even today and if I am wrong I'll be corrected if you fly into the country you are quarantined and they place you in a hotel.  You pay but they put you there so there is no getting around this.  They cut back on flights.  They cut off travel between states.  

 

They like some of the other successful countries big and small never politicized things either.

They can contact trace and they can test.  They encourage you to get tested.  My daughter had a sort throat the other day and went for a COVID-19 test.  She went to a place where there was no charge (about 15 minutes from home) and the test results were texted to her within 10 hours.  Other placed are 24 to 72 hours.

 

Even today there are places where it is very challenging to get a test in the USA and contact tracing is almost non-existent.

 

They implemented a cohesive national strategy.  When things went south in an areas they tightened things up tightly there.

 

Like us they had challenges but did a great job overcoming them.  For example, Sydney is a high density city yet very few cases and somedays no new cases.

 

We let the states fend for themselves, didn't have a cohesive strategy and no national strategy for testing and tracing and even today we don't have enough clothing for the medical workers who often have to reuse masks.

 

I could go on but all I know is when I speak with my daughter it is as if we are living on two different planets at two different points in time.

 

We could be the model for all to look up to on this. We are not.  I read that hospital workers from other countries are being dispatched here.

 

We are in the dark period and my fear is we are just at the start and things will go much darker.

 

It's in our hands. Thanksgiving arrives in less than two weeks and by the time it is Christmas either we will be improved, the same or one of the darkest periods since the virus hit.  More people are dying here every few days than on 9/11.

 

Who would have predicted we could be in such a sad state of affairs.  

 

In spite of ourselves I still have optimism which is the title of this thread that we will get back to cruising but this assumes when the vaccine is available people will get it rather than sit back and do nothing.  Keeping fingers and toes crossed things will turn out positively with the half glass is full approach but this will take cooperation and a big change in our approach.  I hope we do just that.

 

Keith

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7 minutes ago, Pat King said:

Keith, don't know if you follow the MedCram lectures. Here is the latest update on the virus and vaccines:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jwBxZMWrng

 

Thank you for sharing this Pat.  I just started watching it and am at the part where they are beginning to explain the vaccines starting with Pfizer.

 

Keith

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Just to add to Stickman's post about Australia. I live in Sydney and as we were coming out of our strict lockdown back in May, I think, the limit to the number of people allowed in one's home was increased to 4 people outside of your own family group. We had my sister and BIL over. We were probably a bit noisy and one of the neighbours called the police suspecting that we had more than then allowed number of visitors. Next thing you know there are 3 very polite police at my door checking the premises and the number of people in the house. And here's the difference between how I reacted (and I'm sure most Australians) to how this might have gone down in America. Instead of feeling like my "constitutional" rights were being violated I was grateful that we had people implementing and monitoring the laws put in place to PROTECT us. 

 

I heard yesterday that Gov Cuomo wanted to limit the number of people allowed at church services and the Archdiocese is taking it to the Supreme Court. We had a lock down on all religious services for months and there are still limits to the number of people allowed and that's with no community transmission in the whole country for many days! I just don't understand how trying to keep people safe and healthy is impinging on their rights. IMO, until this attitude changes I can't see any administration in America being able to make a difference to the horrific numbers were seeing now.

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A history refresher:

 

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

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2 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

A history refresher:

 

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Your point?

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59 minutes ago, Mahogany said:

Your point?

 

The point is that USA is the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Limiting church services violates one of those basic freedoms.  Limiting church services while allowing other groups to congregate is hypocritical.

 

Just my two confederate sense,

 

Marc

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8 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

The point is that USA is the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Limiting church services violates one of those basic freedoms.  Limiting church services while allowing other groups to congregate is hypocritical.


with that logic you can kill two birds with one stone...

 

They can gather in Church to attend the funeral of yet another COVID victim...

 

I can’t say it any simpler - if the US doesn’t change its thinking and approach on COVID their citizens are in for a long cold winter - and no cruises!

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On 11/10/2020 at 7:40 AM, KirkNC said:

Glad to hear you are responsible.  if you want to believe a single person is making the rules, thats your right.  I don't believe that.  Scientists make recommendations, they use multiple opinions to arrive at those recommendations.  They are not edicts from on high by one person.

 

One person actually can make rules, the President can issue Executive Orders that become law or rules.  Presidents from both parties have done this.

Sorry but in NY, NYC, CA, MI - among others where the governor (or mayor) makes unilateral decisions daily.  The President's Executive Orders have limits - they apply to certain Federal Agencies.  Please look up the limits .

 

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