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Cause for cautious optimism?


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10 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

The point is that USA is the land of the free and the home of the brave.  Limiting church services violates one of those basic freedoms.  Limiting church services while allowing other groups to congregate is hypocritical.

 

Just my two confederate sense,

 

Marc

I can't remember if this issue made it to the courts but a few months ago the Federal Government asked all churches and other houses of worship (Synagogues) to close and almost all did.   A few balked and as we know some had COVID-19 issues.  

 

My (our state) did this too for a period of time.

 

Ironically, we have many more cases of COVID-19 in our country right now than at the time the churches/houses of worship were asked to close.  I'll leave this to the Governor's and for the court system to decide.  

 

Whether open or closed I wish people would use common sense and avoid gatherings of any kinds inside with those whom do not live under their roof.  Science has shown this increases their chance of getting the virus and this adds to more unnecessary deaths.  

 

Again let co-equal branches of government decide.

 

While we live in the land of the free and the brave we all have Local, State and Federal Laws to follow.  If any are unconstitutional just like executive orders there is a process to contest them.  Living free does NOT mean we can do what we want such as driving while intoxicated, driving above speed limits, killing someone, shouting fire in a movie theatre, and at certain times taking to the streets if Martial Law is involved, and other actions when emergency actions are taken by the people we elect to make these decisions.

 

We are in a bad place now.  We should have learned from countries who do it right and those who do NOT.  New Zealand, Australia, Japan are examples of countries who have done it right.  We have done it almost as bad as you can IMHO and we are in horrible shape now and in a dark place which could worsen in December and January.  And for those who don't care about themselves, well care about others and that includes the overwhelmed hospitals where professionals put their lives on the line each day dealing with this and much that was avoidable.  

 

Keith

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Let me add we all like to be Number 1 but there are sometimes number 1 is not where you want to be.  Those in the USA find us in this situation.  

 

Yesterday we had 184,000+ new cases of COVID-19 reported in the USA alone.  Scientists had predicted awhile ago we might hit 200,000.  Sounds like they are spot-on.  However, if we keep this up a few days after Thanksgiving we will be above this number.

 

Some medical experts say Hospitals may have to ration care.  

 

So this is the time it is silly to be arguing about  wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands, school closures, and against extra precautions that our Governor's are asking whether that is to require masks, or even to temporarily close churches/houses of worship or at least limit the number of people at one time.  It's not like those in-charge are doing this to hurt us or to deprive us.  Rather they know we are in a very dark place.  As Dr. Fauci says if we just do three simple things we could be in a far better place.  (wear masks, social distance, wash hands) and if we do the other things they say they are doing (no holiday get-togethers, no air travel, avoid indoor restaurants) we could do even better.  

 

I sure want to live to see the better days. Who wouldn't?

 

I also want to cruise again and this 184K new cases is not putting us on the road to getting to cruising.  

 

Keith

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Keith

You are the voice of reason on this issue.

Your posts are spot on.

We all want to resume cruising but we are not on the right path to get there.

Crystal can publish all the delicious new itineraries it wants.  We will salivate but we will not be booking anything that is scheduled to sail before late summer 2021.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?  Maybe.

Until we know more about the effectiveness of the vaccine(s), the number of doses available and the distribution plan any cruise is a pipe dream.

 

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Just now, bitob said:

Keith

You are the voice of reason on this issue.

Your posts are spot on.

We all want to resume cruising but we are not on the right path to get there.

Crystal can publish all the delicious new itineraries it wants.  We will salivate but we will not be booking anything that is scheduled to sail before late summer 2021.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?  Maybe.

Until we know more about the effectiveness of the vaccine(s), the number of doses available and the distribution plan any cruise is a pipe dream.

 

I agree, IMHO cruising is probably about 18 months away.

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27 minutes ago, bitob said:

We all want to resume cruising but we are not on the right path to get there.

Crystal can publish all the delicious new itineraries it wants.  We will salivate but we will not be booking anything that is scheduled to sail before late summer 2021.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?  Maybe.

Until we know more about the effectiveness of the vaccine(s), the number of doses available and the distribution plan any cruise is a pipe dream.


fully concur!!!   As much as we want to get back to cruising on crystal, I’m not optimistic about my June cruise and possibly any for 2021. 😪

 

Nancy

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52 minutes ago, nancygp said:


fully concur!!!   As much as we want to get back to cruising on crystal, I’m not optimistic about my June cruise and possibly any for 2021. 😪

 

Nancy

 

I never had any confidence before Sept., 2021 and now that is fading. I still look at Crystal's calendar of cruises from then on, but am even less sure these days that Crystal as we have known it will even exist at that point. I'm sad. 😢

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18 minutes ago, Texas Tillie said:

 

I never had any confidence before Sept., 2021 and now that is fading. I still look at Crystal's calendar of cruises from then on, but am even less sure these days that Crystal as we have known it will even exist at that point. I'm sad. 😢

I agree that things won't be the same, and sad too.  Even if we have a miraculous turnaround with a working vaccine by spring, it will take months and months to get it to everyone. Some people won't even take it and the virus isn't going to be eliminated even with a vaccine, so new protocols will always be required. Crystal will have new crew members by then because others will have moved on. Itineraries will still be completely iffy based on individual country rules and changes. Will they be able to provide the same product, appeal to the same clientele, go to the same exotic places and still be profitable? Will they even be able to survive? That's my concern.

 

 

 

 

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19 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:

with that logic you can kill two birds with one stone...

 

They can gather in Church to attend the funeral of yet another COVID victim...

 

I can’t say it any simpler - if the US doesn’t change its thinking and approach on COVID their citizens are in for a long cold winter - and no cruises!

I like what our (Methodist) Bishop said a few months ago.  "We have never closed"  We gather in new and different ways but we have never closed"

My take is a passage from the bible:  "You should love the Lord your God with all your heart and strength and mind, and you should love your neighbor as yourself".  I have never understood how loving my neighbors as myself meant exposing them to a debilitating and frequently fatal disease.

 

Roy

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After this Sea Dream mess, I would not be surprised if cruise lines will mandate vaccines for all crews and passengers once available.  They may even require serologic confirmation of Covid antibodies for those who have had the disease or received a vaccination.  Even for those who receive the vaccine, if immunocompromised, they may not mount an adequate response.  If such criteria are met and passengers feel well, pre-testing may not even be needed.    Social distancing on a ship will be hard despite passenger's good intentions.

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I think that in light of Sea Dream 1 (last I heard 7 cases) the CDC will reinstate their no sail order.  If, and its a big if, everything goes right, including vaccines and their effectiveness, I don’t see cruising returning until 3rd quarter 2021.

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A Crystal friend told me about a U.S. National Institutes of Health Covid-19 study. Given the soaring number of new cases, it may be time for me to consider volunteering. Of course, I will discuss the risks with my Travel doctor, an epidemiologist at a respected hospital, before deciding to participate.
 

Johnson & Johnson will conduct a fourth series of Phase 3 clinical trials for its one-dose  Covid-19 vaccine in many additional cities. It’s a two-year trial. Some participants will receive the vaccine; others will receive a placebo. The study will include seniors and people with pre-existing health conditions.


https://www.niaid.nih.gov/clinical-trials/Covid-19-clinical-trials

 

By chance, does anyone participate in any of the Covid-19 clinical trials?

 

On a separate front:

 

Is construction to complete the Crystal Endeavor proceeding at the Werften shipyards? Or, does work continue to be suspended due to Covid-19? Is March 2021 the current target date?

 

Werften shipyards were scheduled to build Crystal’s new ocean ship. Hopefully, construction financing can be secured.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, bitob said:

Keith

You are the voice of reason on this issue.

Your posts are spot on.

We all want to resume cruising but we are not on the right path to get there.

Crystal can publish all the delicious new itineraries it wants.  We will salivate but we will not be booking anything that is scheduled to sail before late summer 2021.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?  Maybe.

Until we know more about the effectiveness of the vaccine(s), the number of doses available and the distribution plan any cruise is a pipe dream.

 

Thank you so much for your comments.

 

Hopefully, people will wake up and follow the various approaches which would allow us to minimize the spread of the virus.  I often remind people that if our trend continues we will hit the 200,000 per day threshold of new infections and a few weeks later this translate between 2,000 to 3,000 daily deaths which is around the same amount of people who died on 9/11 or the day of the Pearl Harbor Attack and our hospitals will be max'd out meaning people with other issues such as Heart Attacks and Strokes will be equally challenged for care.  It's so easy and logical to follow the guidelines and even go beyond them and I am amazed at the resistance to this. 

 

Right now these methods are our medicine.

 

As to the vaccine, I am hoping there will be multiple ones with encouraging results similar to Pfizer.  But we all have to remember the final Pfizer results are not in, nor are the final results of other vaccines and one of the big  unknowns on top of this is how long it will last. Normally this is why a new vaccine is not rushed out the door until the history is known.  I think it is the right decision to get it out the door but we do have to remember this means there are unknowns.  

 

We hope we'll cruise and hope it might be sometime in the second half of 2021,  but realistically we know in this environment nothing is certain so we will just watch how things unfold.  

 

In the meantime, I wish anyone who had planned get-togethers in the USA for Thanksgiving (and Chanukah, Christmas and New Years too)  with those who don't reside under the same roof with them and involve get-togethesr inside put those plans on hold.  If we are already seeing 150,000 to close to 200,000 cases per day and people do not put these plans on-hold we will see far greater numbers which I believe will all but guarantee mandatory closures and many other restrictions.  Even some states where the Governors were not for things such as mandatory face masks have begun instituting them.  The irony is many who are against these types of restrictions will actually be the ones who cause them to happen because of acting reckless.  It's no different than driving while intoxicated or way above the speed limit or running a traffic light or stop sign.  People are setting themselves up for a catastrophic event.  I only hope people wake up before the dark period the scientists warned us about comes tumbling down on all of us.  It will make I guarantee it will make March thru May look like a walk in the park IMHO.  We are playing with a loaded gun or a bomb.  


I hope you both stay well and healthy.

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, nancygp said:

JUST ANNOUNCED....Moderna Vaccine 94.5% effective!!!!!! 👍

 

Nancy

 

 

 

 

Beat me to it😀

 

Also, there is talk of a Russian vaccine with similar efficacy which may be announced shortly and we are awaiting an announcement regarding the vaccine developed by our Oxford University.

 

Yes, still hurdles to clear and it will take time to roll out. However, definitely light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Colin

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In Maine a major source of infectious was a church’s ignoring all restrictions.,etc. there are rights and sensible actions   If you can’t exercise your religious beliefs online or spaced out personally I think you may have not really learned the lesson that religion teaches.  Just my thoughts rights and sensible behavior don’t have to conflict 

 

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Good news on the vaccine.


Time to pack my bags.

 

In all seriousness though it is good because we are going to need lots of vendors in order to have some meaningful quantities knowing each person has to be vaccinated twice and with the same vaccine and also given the challenges with sorting Pfizer vaccine.  

 

Even with a lot of inventory other challenge is just the ability to give the vaccine in an orderly manner.  In the USA our states have not been informed how this will work and the concerns raised b some states is not having adequate manpower to actually give the injections and also where they will be given.  

 

I am hoping this gets sorted out sooner rather than later.  

 

Our challenge though in the states is making it through the next couple of months without overwhelming hospitals which in some states are max'd out already and the issue of overwhelming those who care for patients.

 

One thing I heard today from a very reliable scientist was emphasizing the washing of hands. His point was they are learning that the virus can last on wood for up to two weeks in cold weather.  We have the extra challenge we didn't face over here in March and that is being indoors more as the weather turns cold in many places in the USA and the cold weather impact on the virus living longer as I mentioned.  He also emphasized the issue of flying based on what they have learned in Europe which has shown virus can spread on aircraft.  I do remember the leading medical person on NBC getting the virus earlier this year and he believes it was on a flight.  Logic tells me if you are sitting next to someone who has the virus for a long period of time your odds increase in getting it.  I am no medical scientist obviously but the same experts that I follow say to avoid eating indoors at restaurants because being indoor for extended periods of time increases odds of getting the virus.  I realize at restaurant masks are off for eating but being so close to someone on a flight even with masks to me seems logical to increase the odds.

 

We are still talking about a few months until vaccines are readily available for most folks other than say the first responders/hospital/medical/nursing home personnel and those who have major health issues so we need to be very careful IMHO and listen to the experts.  Unfortunately too many are not listening. Maybe COVIID-19 fatigue but this is not the time to have fatigue.

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, kool kruiser said:

Beat me to it😀

 

Also, there is talk of a Russian vaccine with similar efficacy which may be announced shortly and we are awaiting an announcement regarding the vaccine developed by our Oxford University.

 

Yes, still hurdles to clear and it will take time to roll out. However, definitely light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Colin


Hi Colin,

 

as it was the case last Monday morning my time zone, I was able to watch the breaking news last week about Pfizer’s vaccine and this mornings news on the Moderna vaccine on CNBC.  Yes, light at the end of the tunnel with more good news to come.


While any resemble of Normalcy will take time, these vaccines are a great start and will significantly aid in fighting the worldwide Covid pandemic.

 

Nancy

 

 

 

 

Edited by nancygp
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My travel agent was a "volunteer" for the Moderna trial.  He said he did it for me so I could cruise again.  LOL  He was optimistic about the result and I am glad his optimism was warranted.  I think now having 2 viable vaccines is cause for cautious optimism.  I still think late summer (just my guess given the issues with dissemination of the vaccine) is the earliest we can cruise without fear, but I am more confident that it might happen.  And from what I read, there may be other effective vaccines in the coming months.

 

We all want the same thing -- return to cruising safely.

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11 hours ago, ctjon said:

In Maine a major source of infectious was a church’s ignoring all restrictions.,etc. there are rights and sensible actions   If you can’t exercise your religious beliefs online or spaced out personally I think you may have not really learned the lesson that religion teaches.  Just my thoughts rights and sensible behavior don’t have to conflict 

 

 

This image was distributed by Truro, MA town hall today.  I wonder whether a Maine church wedding was the event you mentioned above.

image.png.a26f27c16335813838983a39f2ae0caf.png

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On 11/10/2020 at 9:18 AM, Keith1010 said:

Actually individual actions have been mandated by Governor's and in some cases Governor's have given this decision making to Mayors.  

 

There are things which can be done at the Federal level and other things at the State Level.

 

Some countries got this right because they made the decisions at the national level and never let politics get in the way.

 

They did a real lockdown.  They did a real quarantine.  They did contact tracing.  They did testing.

 

The results speak for themselves.

 

These countries got the number so low that they have had few cases and one country did have a big increase in one state so they made lots of right decisions to get it back down.

 

We missed the "boat".

 

Keith

Certainly that is an opinion.  Which countries got it right?  Seems those complimented three months ago have locked down again.  My nephew, who plays professional hockey in Sweden has just had his season canceled until January.  CA has been in a state of suspended animation for seven months without any success.  If there is a failure, it is due to individuals not paying attention to responsible actions.  Then again, that is my opinion.  Creating a mandate to wear masks is unenforcable.

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13 minutes ago, almostretired said:

Certainly that is an opinion.  Which countries got it right?  Seems those complimented three months ago have locked down again.  My nephew, who plays professional hockey in Sweden has just had his season canceled until January.  CA has been in a state of suspended animation for seven months without any success.  If there is a failure, it is due to individuals not paying attention to responsible actions.  Then again, that is my opinion.  Creating a mandate to wear masks is unenforcable.

Death from COVID is much worse!

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On 11/14/2020 at 3:51 AM, Keith1010 said:

I can't remember if this issue made it to the courts but a few months ago the Federal Government asked all churches and other houses of worship (Synagogues) to close and almost all did.   A few balked and as we know some had COVID-19 issues.  

 

My (our state) did this too for a period of time.

 

Ironically, we have many more cases of COVID-19 in our country right now than at the time the churches/houses of worship were asked to close.  I'll leave this to the Governor's and for the court system to decide.  

 

Whether open or closed I wish people would use common sense and avoid gatherings of any kinds inside with those whom do not live under their roof.  Science has shown this increases their chance of getting the virus and this adds to more unnecessary deaths.  

 

Again let co-equal branches of government decide.

 

While we live in the land of the free and the brave we all have Local, State and Federal Laws to follow.  If any are unconstitutional just like executive orders there is a process to contest them.  Living free does NOT mean we can do what we want such as driving while intoxicated, driving above speed limits, killing someone, shouting fire in a movie theatre, and at certain times taking to the streets if Martial Law is involved, and other actions when emergency actions are taken by the people we elect to make these decisions.

 

We are in a bad place now.  We should have learned from countries who do it right and those who do NOT.  New Zealand, Australia, Japan are examples of countries who have done it right.  We have done it almost as bad as you can IMHO and we are in horrible shape now and in a dark place which could worsen in December and January.  And for those who don't care about themselves, well care about others and that includes the overwhelmed hospitals where professionals put their lives on the line each day dealing with this and much that was avoidable.  

 

Keith

Interesting.  Our church has celebrated Mass in person since early June - first at 25% then at 50%.  Social distancing and masks for all, no choir, church sanitized between Masses - and not a single case of Covid for any Parishioner.  Responsible people do not need government mandates that threaten the freedoms for which we were founded.  

 

I am not sure how one can equate NZ with the US - 5 million residents in the middle of the ocean the size of Colorado.  Japan has taken a different approach --- and not one of central government action but in the people understanding how to prevent the spread and tasking personal responsibility.  This WaPo article outlines Japan's approach.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/as-infections-ebb-japan-hopes-it-has-cracked-the-covid-code-on-coexisting-with-the-virus/2020/09/17/4742e284-eea2-11ea-bd08-1b10132b458f_story.html

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