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Cause for cautious optimism?


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SeaDream cancels remaining 2020 sailings, 7 guests and 2 crew Covid+ on its initial Caribbean sailing after a successful summer season sailing in Europe. 

 

It's a very sobering reality that this virus is pervasive and sneaky and the US is currently a huge hot-spot. Despite the most careful planning and building of the "cruise bubble", until the risk of contagion while getting to the ship is substantially reduced, the possibility of any cruise coming to an abrupt end with serious consequences for all on board is very real. Reality also means acknowledging that the virus will be with us for a while yet (despite the speedy advance of the vaccines).

 

My heart breaks for all those who depend on the cruise industry for their subsistence.

 

Stay safe and be kind everyone.

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19 minutes ago, almostretired said:

Certainly that is an opinion.  Which countries got it right?  Seems those complimented three months ago have locked down again.  My nephew, who plays professional hockey in Sweden has just had his season canceled until January.  CA has been in a state of suspended animation for seven months without any success.  If there is a failure, it is due to individuals not paying attention to responsible actions.  Then again, that is my opinion.  Creating a mandate to wear masks is unenforcable.

My assertion is based on fact but I guess most things are opinions.

 

There a several countries which got it right including New Zealand, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and UAE.  The list of these and other countries is easy to find.

 

What do they have in common.  A national strategy.  Took several key actions.  Enforced rules rather than recommendations.  Many had true shutdowns.  Many took the position that if things when the wrong way they buttoned it up again or certain areas.  They made testing readily available and easy to get. Contract tracing.  I could provide many more examples.

 

We speak with our daughter frequently who lives in Sydney and we hear from her all the things Australia did to get things right and we are aware of the many things we didn't do which have helped to fuel the spread of COVID-19.

 

As the experts say if we just did a few simple things and stayed with this we could have been in a much better place.  Wear Masks, Social Distancing, & Washing Hands Frequently and Thoroughly.

 

Even after the vaccine rolls-out Dr Fauci when asked recommended when you get the vaccine to still wear the mask and keep up with this stuff.  Why?  Because you could be one of the ones where the vaccine was not effective.  Makes sense at least until we can get this under control and the vast majority of people get vaccinated.  Not easy to get the latter done but hopefully with a big campaign to encourage people to get the vaccine we will get there.

 

Keith

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4 hours ago, Pat King said:

Keith, here is the update on the Moderna vaccine, with a comparison to the Pfizer. The MedCram lectures are meant for the medical community, but are understandable nevertheless. The info on transmissibility is important for any cruise planning.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZvsqBCvB00

 

Thank you Pat.  I will take a look in a moment.

 

I see Prizer has announced a success rate of 95% and I believe is seeking emergency approval.

 

I just wish people would do what the scientists recommend until a wide distribution of the vaccine occurs.  I am very worried with the amount of projected travel for Thanksgiving we are going to be in a very bad place. It's bad now but the odds are it will get a lot worse based on the travel and get togethers it appears people have planned.

 

While Thanksgiving is our favorite family holiday and we have half our family living around two and one half hours by drive from here and always have them and when they lived here our other family here for this holiday not this year.  We won't do it given the scientists recommendations. We would rather delay this until it is safe so hopefully we will have many future celebrations than take a chance of getting the virus or spreading it.  We view this as putting country, family and people first.

 

Thank you again Pat.

 

Keith

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On 11/17/2020 at 11:26 AM, Keith1010 said:

My assertion is based on fact but I guess most things are opinions.

 

There a several countries which got it right including New Zealand, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and UAE.  The list of these and other countries is easy to find.

 

Keith

 

UAE over 1,000 cases a day; Japan over 1,500 cases a day; and then this from Australia:

 

[quote] Australia has become the envy of the world after hosting the largest sporting event since the coronavirus pandemic began. Thousands around the globe who tuned into the State of Origin decider were stunned to see over 52,000 eager fans packed in Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium with no social distancing and very few face masks. International viewers watching in countries with hundreds of thousands of active infections marvelled at the spectacle as almost all major sports worldwide are now played behind closed doors. [/quote]

 

Let's see how many new cases show up in OZ.

 

Marc

Edited by mrlevin
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38 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Let's see how many new cases show up in OZ


Let’s get some perspective on this - the game was played in Queensland - due to quarantine rules no one from Sydney could travel to the game (without a 2 week quarantine prior to the game)

 

Queensland have had 1187 case in total since the pandemic began with 6 deaths - they added 1 case today 

 

They’re not exactly a hot bed of COVID so the chances of infection in that particular crowd is low - but there has been many who questioned why they didn’t require social distancing at the game. But each State makes it own Public Health decisions and that State has made some pretty “interesting” ones - ultimately they’re accountable to their citizens for their decisions 

 

Contrast that with the 6 day mandatory quarantine the South Australian State government has imposed yesterday after 20 or so new cases were found in that State - I can’t imagine the US being so disciplined or committed to acting on containing the spread in a State - https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12897542


Remember these stats are for each Australian State over the entire pandemic period 

 

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3 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

UAE over 1,000 cases a day; Japan over 1,500 cases a day; and then this from Australia:

 

[quote] Australia has become the envy of the world after hosting the largest sporting event since the coronavirus pandemic began. Thousands around the globe who tuned into the State of Origin decider were stunned to see over 52,000 eager fans packed in Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium with no social distancing and very few face masks. International viewers watching in countries with hundreds of thousands of active infections marvelled at the spectacle as almost all major sports worldwide are now played behind closed doors. [/quote]

 

Let's see how many new cases show up in OZ.

 

Marc

For the last two days we hit a number of 1,700.  However, this was deaths per day not new cases.  In addition, just the other day we had four consecutive days of new cases.  This likely means the daily death rate will be higher four to six weeks later.  More people will die in one day than in 9/11 or Pearl Harbor.

 

You can bet these countries along with those that have done an excellent job controlling this will clamp down as necessary and as they have done when needed.  We never truly did.

 

I assume you got the e-mail yesterday what happened in our lovely community.  Someone who actually has the virus went to one of our on-site restaurants to eat.  Talk about stupidity.  Talk about selfishness.  

 

As to Australia, Stickman has it right.  

 

By the way they are pretty much at 0 cases per day, sometimes getting a handful (well a few fingers worth).

 

They did lots of things we didn't do.  A true quarantine.  Cut down on flights.  Locked down for a long period of time travel between states.  When a few months ago one area had issues they quickly clamped down.  A consistent national policy.  Easy to get tested.  Not very long to get the results and contact tracing.  They encourage you to get tested.  My daughter had a sort throat last week.  Can't remember with or without temperature.  One place near her she could get a test and results back 24 to 36 hours or just a 15 minute car ride results back in 10 hours.  She went with the 10 hours.  

 

We are in a very bad stage right now and guess what happens next week.  

 

If people don't care about themselves, they should at least care for all of the medial workers who are overwhelmed with patients and who put their lives on the line each day and friends, relatively and people they don't know who needlessly will die.

 

 

 

Keith

 

 

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5 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

f people don't care about themselves, they should at least care for all of the medial workers who are overwhelmed with patients and who put their lives on the line each day and friends, relatively and people they don't know who needlessly will die.

Amen to that, Keith.

 

Roy

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10 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:

Contrast that with the 6 day mandatory quarantine the South Australian State government has imposed yesterday after 20 or so new cases were found in that State - I can’t imagine the US being so disciplined or committed to acting on containing the spread in a State - https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/12897542

 

Thanks for explaining the sensible, well-focused policies Australia employs to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  Since ABC's article didn’t identify crucial reasons for SA’s lockdown, a Bloombergquint.com article provides valuable information:

 

Twenty-three people in the state capital Adelaide have been infected after a cleaner at a hotel used to quarantine people arriving from overseas was exposed to the virus, and health authorities say the “circuit breaker” measures are necessary to avoid a wider outbreak. Marshall said the strain of the virus that’s circulating is “nasty” as many of those infected are not showing any symptoms. He said it was highly likely to be transmitted from surfaces and that the incubation period was as low as 24 hours. “It’s a real worry, especially because people who become infected are not showing the typical symptoms that we are used to,” he said.”

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6 hours ago, Jim9310 said:

health authorities say the “circuit breaker” measures are necessary to avoid a wider outbreak.

Lockdowns are more likely to be effective if you are dealing with a very small number of people infected.  Once a significant portion of the population is infected, a lockdown might slow it down during the lockdown, but will not stop it.  At least not without frequent, universal, and accurate testing and true quarantine of documented cases.  Also not if people are still allowed to buy groceries, go to the doctor, go to a lab to get tested, etc.  Not with a virus that is asymptomatic in a significant number of cases.  At best, lockdowns will provide only temporary improvement.

 

You might argue that with effective vaccines on the horizon, that temporary improvement is a worthy objective.  But its practical value needs to be weighed against the many costs involved, keeping in mind the realistic likelihood of compliance.  It won't work if you throw it out the window at the first sign of civil unrest.  And then when everyone else says, well if letting people "protest" in the streets is more important than maintaining the lockdown, then I don't need to lock down either.

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The USA CDC says do not travel over Thanksgiving.  excellent advice IMHO. 1,800 people died in the USA the past 25 hours. It will be worse in the next few weeks even if everyone stays home as deaths will be based on the past few days.  If people travel and have these get together soon it will be ugly. 
 

We can do so much better.  Doesn’t require a lockdown just common sense. 
 

People in the USA should have a get together over this holiday only with those who live under their roof. I am afraid if we don’t there will be a lockdown which is preventable.
 

please think of others including first responders and the medical personnel who are putting their lives lives on the line for all of us.  They are amazing.   
 

Please think of them. 
 

They are the true heroes.

 

Keith

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14 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

Lockdowns are more likely to be effective if you are dealing with a very small number of people infected.  Once a significant portion of the population is infected, a lockdown might slow it down during the lockdown, but will not stop it.  At least not without frequent, universal, and accurate testing and true quarantine of documented cases.  Also not if people are still allowed to buy groceries, go to the doctor, go to a lab to get tested, etc.  Not with a virus that is asymptomatic in a significant number of cases.  At best, lockdowns will provide only temporary improvement.

 

Ding, ding, ding.....we have a winner here.

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24 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

Lockdowns are more likely to be effective if you are dealing with a very small number of people infected.  Once a significant portion of the population is infected, a lockdown might slow it down during the lockdown, but will not stop it.  At least not without frequent, universal, and accurate testing and true quarantine of documented cases.  Also not if people are still allowed to buy groceries, go to the doctor, go to a lab to get tested, etc.  Not with a virus that is asymptomatic in a significant number of cases.  At best, lockdowns will provide only temporary improvement.

 

You might argue that with effective vaccines on the horizon, that temporary improvement is a worthy objective.  But its practical value needs to be weighed against the many costs involved, keeping in mind the realistic likelihood of compliance.  It won't work if you throw it out the window at the first sign of civil unrest.  And then when everyone else says, well if letting people "protest" in the streets is more important than maintaining the lockdown, then I don't need to lock down either.

And when you see people like Gov. Newsome of CA totally flaunting every single rule he wants to impose on Californians, but not on himself or his cronies, that falls into the same category as “protests” being acceptable.  No neither are and just shows the hypocrisy that makes people not believe anything they are told.  

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BTW, I have one relative and two close friends who are MDs.  All 3 

said that they do not see themselves going on any cruise until 2022.   All three said too many people are seeing the vaccine as something that will get them back to cruising in the next 3-4 months.  That is not the case and all three said they want to see more testing done before FDA approval.

 

if i get on a ship in 2022 I will feel lucky

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49 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

The USA CDC says do not travel over Thanksgiving.  excellent advice IMHO. 1,800 people died in the USA the past 25 hours. It will be worse in the next few weeks even if everyone stays home as deaths will be based on the past few days.  If people travel and have these get together soon it will be ugly. 
 

We can do so much better.  Doesn’t require a lockdown just common sense. 
 

People in the USA should have a get together over this holiday only with those who live under their roof. I am afraid if we don’t there will be a lockdown which is preventable.
 

please think of others including first responders and the medical personnel who are putting their lives lives on the line for all of us.  They are amazing.   
 

Please think of them. 
 

They are the true heroes.

 

Keith

Getting together with people who have had two negative tests and have isolated for two weeks after the second negative and travel in a car without stopping to visit people who followed the same procedures is possible.  

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3 hours ago, KenzSailing said:

The conflation of "total lockdowns aren't effective" with "and that's why I never wear a mask when I go about like it's 2018," is a cheap parlor trick beneath any serious person. 

I totally agree.  IMO, the primary reason that "masks don't work" is because not everyone is wearing them.  If all the asymptomatic people who have the virus (but don't realize it) don't wear a mask, then it will continue to spread.

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32 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

If all the asymptomatic people who have the virus (but don't realize it) don't wear a mask, then it will continue to spread.

 

And if all the asymptomatic people who have the virus (but don't realize it) do wear a mask, will it then stop any spread?   (I would wager No, and have yet to find any data-driven studies on point.  Lots of modelling studies, which all depend on the programming assumptions.)

 

What would stop it?  An absolutely draconian lockdown quarantine.  But absolute.  No going to the grocery.  No "essential" work.  No walking the dog, no leaving your home; a true quarantine.  And here's the dirty little secret:  all those "leakages" destroy a quarantine.  You go to the mailbox, to the grocery, to the drive-through.  Amazon packages come to your house.  You distance your six feet.   You wear a mask that's so porous it wouldn't stop a thing, because it's the wearing that's virtuous, not any effectiveness.  And so virus transmission continues to persist.

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7 hours ago, cruisr said:

Getting together with people who have had two negative tests and have isolated for two weeks after the second negative and travel in a car without stopping to visit people who followed the same procedures is possible.  

The Scientists would say that is fine from what I've heard, but the key is to truly isolate the entire time.  What some people are doing is not isolating and just relying on a test.  The issue which the scientists have discussed is you get the virus today, take the test tomorrow, it's too early for it to show as a test positive and you see people and spread the virus as it can take a few days as well before the symptoms show or you may never have symptoms. 

 

Again key is the isolation and no exceptions such as running to the food store, being with others, etc., etc., etc., and because most won't do this the CDC is now recommending no Thanksgiving Travel.

 

While better to issue this warning it would have bee much more effective to have issued it weeks ago if not earlier.  I am afraid for the millions who purchased airline tickets most won't cancel them now. 

 

The present numbers are terrible and will get far worse.

 

Keith

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As to the masks, we all know it works much better if everyone wears a mask.

 

However, the CDC issued an recent update noting that the mask does provide some protection for you if the other person has the virus and is not wearing a mask.  So best to wear one.  The challenge is how long you are near someone if indoors and they are not wearing a mask. 

 

On a related issue not all masks are created equally and  I see some in masks which are not recommended.  The CDC website shows the recommended masks as do sites in respective countries around the world.

 

And how you wear a mask is important.  I was in the grocery store and one couple each were wearing masks.  Guess what?  In both cases it was not above their nostrils.  Ugh!  Right or wrong from a distance I did mention to them the right way to wear the mask.  They did thank me as they pulled them up higher but I am thinking to myself the temporary damage has been done.

 

As positive a person I am we are in store for a very dark time shorty after Thanksgiving.  About four weeks after the holiday we will have death rates potentially two times the present daily rate.  This is where I wish what I've heard from the scientists is wrong .

 

Keith

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23 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

 

I assume you got the e-mail yesterday what happened in our lovely community.  Someone who actually has the virus went to one of our on-site restaurants to eat.  Talk about stupidity.  Talk about selfishness.  

 

 

 

Keith

 

 

Keith, you know my Brother and his wife live there.  Mark,  I did not know you and Arlene were in the same development

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2 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

And if all the asymptomatic people who have the virus (but don't realize it) do wear a mask, will it then stop any spread?   (I would wager No, and have yet to find any data-driven studies on point.  Lots of modelling studies, which all depend on the programming assumptions.)

I agree that it would not stop it, but IMHO it would probably slow it down a bit.  Of course I am talking about proper masks worn properly, not gaiters or masks with valves.  The bottom line, at least in the US given the prevailing attitudes here, our only real hope is that we need to get as many people vaccinated as possible as quickly as possible.

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4 minutes ago, ChatKat in Ca. said:

Keith, you know my Brother and his wife live there.  Mark,  I did not know you and Arlene were in the same development

Kathy, yes I remember you telling me that.  

 

It's a small world.  😃

 

It's funny two years ago on one of our Crystal Cruises with 24 hours we met two different couples (one at the Crystal Cove) and the other as we were on line leaving the ship for a port stop and each could lived in our community.  We met each one for the first time.  

 

Keith

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4 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Kathy, yes I remember you telling me that.  

 

It's a small world.  😃

 

It's funny two years ago on one of our Crystal Cruises with 24 hours we met two different couples (one at the Crystal Cove) and the other as we were on line leaving the ship for a port stop and each could lived in our community.  We met each one for the first time.  

 

Keith

It's like that here too. Imaging a friend of mine announcing her move to my neighborhood 2 weeks after we opened escrow. There are several others and some childhood friends.  Marc L is also from my area

 

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17 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

I agree that it would not stop it, but IMHO it would probably slow it down a bit.  Of course I am talking about proper masks worn properly, not gaiters or masks with valves.  The bottom line, at least in the US given the prevailing attitudes here, our only real hope is that we need to get as many people vaccinated as possible as quickly as possible.

You are right.  It won't stop it but experts say the same thing.  We could cut it back significantly.

 

Their advice as they note is so simple and to me not rocket science but it works.

 

Wear a mask, social distance, wash hands often and thoroughly, avoid get togethers with others who do not live under the same roof, and most add to the list avoiding indoor restaurants and flying.  

 

If we all did this we would be in a far better place.

 

The challenge with the vaccine is availability as it won't be available in large dosages for several months and the sheer challenge of sticking the needle in those who want it knowing you need it two times.  

 

The other challenge is education because polls (I know they could be wrong) show 50% of the Americans don't want the vaccine so an education plan is necessary.

 

I am not sure if this is the case for the two vaccines and possibly three but at least one of them has not been tested with children so that is something which will need to be done to determine effectiveness and side effects.  

 

Anyway, let's say it's true that by April anyone who wants a vaccine can get one (although I still think the administering of it will be a challenge) we have to get through five months and right now the job we in the USA are doing is horrible.  We may hit 3,000 to 4,000 deaths a day just from this virus (we need to remember this time of year three are other challenges such as influenza) with each day having more deaths than Pearl Harbor or 9/11.  

 

I think everyday of the way most die in those hospitals; no family with them and the time (which varies) before they die.

 

Early on people would ask others do you know anyone who has died or even had the virus.  Often people would say no.  This is changing.  I have two sets of friends and one lost both parents within a few days of one another to the virus and early on my best friend lost his father.  The father was up there in age but still did well and was part of the USA landing on Omaha Beach.  

 

I also know people who survived the virus with a wide range of side effects.  

 

Unfortunately, I am sure many in the USA and on this board have similar stories for people they know.

 

I am confident we can get to a far better place if these vaccines work as reported and if lots of people around the world can get them.  

 

There are still unknowns and certainly one is how often we will need them.

 

On a related note, even when we get the vaccine the scientists I follow recommend still wearing masks because it is not 100% effective.  Makes sense and speaking for myself we will wear the masks for quite sometime.  We no longer would look at people who wear masks in a funny manner as I will admit we did in the past.  I know before the virus if I saw someone with a mask I would wonder if they were sick with something.  They could have been but it is very likely they were just trying to avoid getting sick.    They will be part of our medical toolbar for the future and I know we will take them with us when we travel going forward.

 

Keith

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