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Cause for cautious optimism?


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9 hours ago, SusieQft said:

At best, lockdowns will provide only temporary improvement.

I would have thought the point of doing targeted lock downs in various parts of the USA at the moment is to reduce pressure on the hospital systems. 'Flattening the curve' I believe is the expression.

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2 minutes ago, Beagle5 said:

I would have thought the point of doing targeted lock downs in various parts of the USA at the moment is to reduce pressure on the hospital systems. 'Flattening the curve' I believe is the expression.

Yes, that would be a reason to do targeted lockdowns in local areas.  But not a reason to lock down the whole country, as some are advocating.  Or even a whole state, in most cases.

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I find it amazing we are still debating the value of mask wearing, social distancing and avoiding other people. I heard a well known doctor say if we just stopped  swapping our air with other people things would improve drastically. When I read about what's happening in many parts of America it is an instant replay of what we saw here in NYC in April, have we learned nothing in seven months? I have to wonder as I am now getting a brochure in the mail daily advertising cruises who would go?

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I agree Hypercafe.  Why this became political is beyond me.  It's so simple.  It's proven to work.  It's a nit to ask of in the scheme of things.

 

As to the post about shutdowns, I am not hearing this mentioned by those in charge, soon to be in charge or those who are the top medical experts advocating lockdowns.

 

Rather what I hear is the same things we have been told for months simply wear face masks inside and where you can't social distance outside wear them, social distancing, the washing hands often and frequently and by many people (not all obviously) the  need for much more testing and quicker turnarounds and contact tracing.

 

As far as mandatory some are suggesting the states make the wearing of masks mandatory.  While many have this others do not.  

 

And many are advocating not to celebrate Thanksgiving with anyone not under your roof or in a bubble.  This now includes the CDC.

 

Another record yesterday in the USA.  I believe 184,000+ new cases. I suspect the week after Thanksgiving we will see 200,000 to 300,00 daily cases.  People will end up dying at home or in the streets if we hit the max of the range with new cases.

 

There is light at the end of the tunnel so this should be added incentive for people to do the things the scientists are asking us to do because if we do more of us will get to enjoy the light and that includes cruising and getting pretty close to normal a year from now.  It's within our reach.  We just have to stay focused.

 

Keith

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18 hours ago, cruisr said:

BTW, I have one relative and two close friends who are MDs.  All 3 

said that they do not see themselves going on any cruise until 2022.   All three said too many people are seeing the vaccine as something that will get them back to cruising in the next 3-4 months.  That is not the case and all three said they want to see more testing done before FDA approval.

 

if i get on a ship in 2022 I will feel lucky

If we don't expect a 100% Covid free cruise, then cruising should resume once a certain number of people are vaccinated.  I'm not a health professional, so I don't know what that number would be.  Or cruising could resume if all passengers and crew are required to have the vaccine.  Cruises aren't cancelled if there are some cases of flu on board (and yes, people can die from the flu), so why would a cruise have to return to port if someone on board tests positive for Covid.  Most of the passengers would be immune, and the ship could have the treatment medication on board.  Seems pretty obvious.

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The key to dealing with the virus is not the Vaccine but rather the therapeutics. 

 

As real as the medical problems that the virus is culpable of creating for people.  An issue just as big is the psychological effects that this virus is having.  It is pitting people against other people as they seek to find blame.    

 

There is scientific amazement that the vaccines are being reported as 95% effective.  But in the United States even if everybody received the vaccine it would still leave over 15 million residents subject to the Virus.  When we have been unable to deal  psychologically with 250,000 deaths due to this Virus how can we be expected to deal with potentially 60 times that number.  To put it differently would you be willing to cruise if you knew you had a one in twenty chance after getting the vaccine and still be subject to getting the virus and dying.  On a boat with 2,000 passenger and crew, it would mean 100 of them would be open to getting the virus and passing it on to each other before passing on even though they all had been vaccinated.

 

The vaccine may have some calming effect.  The therapeutics (When easily available and administered) are the key to stopping the fear that the virus is a death sentence as is currently the case.  

 

Having written this  I could be completely wrong.  Because I am talking about the psychological effects and not the medical effects it may be that the vaccine will make people feel safe enough to go back to their regular daily lives even if the medical risk is still out there.  

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1 hour ago, Wonderingabout said:

The key to dealing with the virus is not the Vaccine but rather the therapeutics. 

 

As real as the medical problems that the virus is culpable of creating for people.  An issue just as big is the psychological effects that this virus is having.  It is pitting people against other people as they seek to find blame.    

 

There is scientific amazement that the vaccines are being reported as 95% effective.  But in the United States even if everybody received the vaccine it would still leave over 15 million residents subject to the Virus.  When we have been unable to deal  psychologically with 250,000 deaths due to this Virus how can we be expected to deal with potentially 60 times that number.  To put it differently would you be willing to cruise if you knew you had a one in twenty chance after getting the vaccine and still be subject to getting the virus and dying.  On a boat with 2,000 passenger and crew, it would mean 100 of them would be open to getting the virus and passing it on to each other before passing on even though they all had been vaccinated.

 

The vaccine may have some calming effect.  The therapeutics (When easily available and administered) are the key to stopping the fear that the virus is a death sentence as is currently the case.  

 

Having written this  I could be completely wrong.  Because I am talking about the psychological effects and not the medical effects it may be that the vaccine will make people feel safe enough to go back to their regular daily lives even if the medical risk is still out there.  

 

...  What therapeutics?  Some better ICU management and better anticoagulation, but no real therapeutics other than early steroids.  Everything else has basically failed at this point.  Remains to be seen what amount of decreased deaths is due to better care, and what amount is due to weather, masks, age, and flattening the curve.

 

The reason why 95% effective vaccine is so exciting is because it is well above herd immunity level.  Since R0 estimated somewhere between 3 and 6, and <2 with minimal social distancing and mask usage, complete herd immunity would be achieved somewhere between 60% and 85% immune.  That means if the sane 50% of the population gets vaccinated, then we can live a fairly normal life with minimal social distancing and mask usage, and any time the virus enters the population (from travel or whatever), it will quickly disappear without effort.  If 90% of the population gets vaccinated, then it'll be like measles.  Sure you'll have random people bringing it in form outside every once in a while, but it won't be able to find enough people to spread to, and each outbreak will end quickly.

 

That's the whole idea of herd immunity.

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4 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

That's the whole idea of herd immunity.

 

 

But...but...weren't those same folks who are pushing these vaccines the same people who dismissed the idea of "herd immunity" months ago?

 

Gee....I wonder what might have changed?

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9 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

 

But...but...weren't those same folks who are pushing these vaccines the same people who dismissed the idea of "herd immunity" months ago?

 

Gee....I wonder what might have changed?

 

These snarky non sequitur arguments based on horrible and incomplete misunderstandings irks me to no end.  It's always the people who don't understand anything that think the other side is contradictory.  

 

So "Herd immunity" is definitely a thing in vaccines.

 

"Herd immunity" is kind of not really a good thing in natural illness based on math.  To expound on it.

 

The probability a virus passes on, the basic replication number (R0) shows how many people you infect.  Let's say everyone is living a normal life, then most studies place the R0 somewhere between 3 and 6 for SARS-COV2.  Let's choose 4 as a nice even number.  So that means when one person is infected, on average they go on to infect 4 more people.

 

Now lets say you don't do anything to control the virus, and you let it run rampant and now 25% of all living people have recovered from the virus.  That means when one person gets infected, instead of normally spreading it to 4 people, they now spread it to 3 since one is immune.

 

Now if you still don't do anything, then eventually, you'll have 75% of all people infected and recovered and immune.  Now when you have one person infected, it reaches a steady state and they only infect 1 more person, so the virus kind of just stay there.

 

Now because new humans are born every day, and people lose immunity, that's why viruses don't ever really disappear.  That's why without vaccines smallpox and polio lasted around forever, even though you are more or less completely immune after one infection.

 

And the bad thing, is that requires everyone to eventually get COVID.  And I don't know about you, but even ignoring the low death rate, the high hospitalization rate, high ventilator rate, and who knows what it does to long term morbidity and mortality, i'd rather not.

 

So on the one hand, you have herd immunity through vaccine.  What it looks like is measles.  Sure there are some crazy people that don't vaccinated and there are rare flare ups here and there, but in general it dies out rapidly and is not endemic.  That is each infection locus eventually flares out.

 

On the other hand, you have the other 5 major human coronaviruses.  They just keep circulating around ever couple years and everyone gets them sooner or later, and usually multiple times in their lives.  

 

I do not want to live in that second world with SARS-COV2.

 

 

Edited by UnorigionalName
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I think that those who were disparaging the idea of herd immunity meant reaching it naturally without a vaccine.  I can't imagine why anyone who would have a problem with herd immunity reached with a vaccine.  Even the anti-vaxers would benefit from the decreased spread of disease because those who are immune will not get sick and infect others, as UnoriginalName just explained in more detail.

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I do not know anyone that died.  I don’t know anyone that knows anyone that died.  I don’t know anyone hospitalized.  I know 7 people that had it.  One was 29 the other 6 ages 62-91.  All recovered within a week to 10 days.   I also know that one hospital, where a friend’s DH is a MD, who had an admission in the ER who had been in a massive motorcycle accident and died in the ER.  He was hit by a car.  He had covid in his body but died of massive trauma due to a motorcycle accident.  His death was listed as CV.  Again, I am not denying it exists I just don’t believe anything the “experts” or the people in charge say.  Sad commentary and most I know feel the same way.

 

Its sad entire segments of the economy and one of the biggest global industries, tourism, is being destroyed.  It will be sad if many cruiselines, including Crystal, do not make it.

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31 minutes ago, cruisr said:

I do not know anyone that died.  I don’t know anyone that knows anyone that died.  I don’t know anyone hospitalized.  I know 7 people that had it.  One was 29 the other 6 ages 62-91.  All recovered within a week to 10 days.   I also know that one hospital, where a friend’s DH is a MD, who had an admission in the ER who had been in a massive motorcycle accident and died in the ER.  He was hit by a car.  He had covid in his body but died of massive trauma due to a motorcycle accident.  His death was listed as CV.  Again, I am not denying it exists I just don’t believe anything the “experts” or the people in charge say.  Sad commentary and most I know feel the same way.

 

Its sad entire segments of the economy and one of the biggest global industries, tourism, is being destroyed.  It will be sad if many cruiselines, including Crystal, do not make it.

Consider yourself lucky.  Maybe in a month or two this will change as more people get the virus and more people die.

 

Tourism has been hit hard because the Pandemic is real.

 

It's not made up.

 

You might not know anyone but over 253,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and this number is likely understated.

 

In several states there are very few beds left in the ICU.  Some are already max'd out.


Right now most countries do NOT allow USA citizens to visit them.  Why?  Because starting several months ago we had too many cases of COVID-19.  Yesterday 180,000+ people in the USA joined the ranks of those who got COVID-19.  Another record high.

 

Sorry too hear you don't believe the experts.  They warned us what would happen if we didn't wear masks, social distance, wash hands, avoided gatherings with others indoors who were not under their own roof and that things would get far worse in the Fall and the winter even worse.  Unfortunately they were right because we have entered the dark period.


Things could be so much better if people took this seriously and stopped ignoring the facts.

 

Unfortunately we will see records of new cases in the USA over the next few weeks and record daily deaths.   

 

We could be in a much better state if people would only follow what the experts are saying rather than not believing them.

 

It's real.  It's serious.  And tourism will not get on track until a vaccine is widely distributed around the world.  

 

 

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2 hours ago, SusieQft said:

I think that those who were disparaging the idea of herd immunity meant reaching it naturally without a vaccine.  I can't imagine why anyone who would have a problem with herd immunity reached with a vaccine.  Even the anti-vaxers would benefit from the decreased spread of disease because those who are immune will not get sick and infect others, as UnoriginalName just explained in more detail.

The reality is if the vaccine is really 95% effective and a good number of people who get the virus don't have symptoms we will be in very good shape with or without herd immunity.  

 

Before we drink the kool-aid as my wife reminds the study which was done is smaller than normal and is being run for a much shorter time.


Keeping fingers and toes crossed the numbers pan out.  The unknown is how long the vaccine is good for.  Let's also keep fingers and toes crossed it will be a year or maybe greater.

 

Keith

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2 hours ago, cruisr said:

   I also know that one hospital, where a friend’s DH is a MD, who had an admission in the ER who had been in a massive motorcycle accident and died in the ER.  He was hit by a car.  He had covid in his body but died of massive trauma due to a motorcycle accident.  His death was listed as CV. 

 

Did this happen in Florida?  As I recall, back in July there was an event similar to this one in Orange County, and the state was taking steps to prevent further misreporting of COVID deaths.

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22 minutes ago, KenzSailing said:

Today, my 88 year old MIL in assisted living in KCMO was diagnosed positive with COVID-19.

 

Against every fiber of my being, I am straining, absolutely straining to hold my tongue with regard to certain posters right now.

I am sorry.  Assisting living has been one of the hardest places for spread and those there are helpless.  Wishing the best possible outcome for your MIL and family.

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2 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

You might not know anyone but over 253,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 and this number is likely understated.

 

Correction.  You meant to say 253,00 Americans have died WITH Covid-19.

 

Significant difference.

 

Even overseas, you can fall off a ladder -- but it's a Covid death.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/11/18/croatian-man-who-died-after-falling-from-ladder-was-killed-by-covid-19/

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2 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

The reality is if the vaccine is really 95% effective and a good number of people who get the virus don't have symptoms we will be in very good shape with or without herd immunity.  

If not enough people are vaccinated to reach herd immunity, then all those people with the virus but no symptoms (as well as the ones with symptoms) will just help perpetuate the status quo.  Herd immunity will almost certainly be necessary to stop the pandemic.

 

Yes, there are a lot of unknowns.  We are used to getting flu shots once a year and if the COVID immunity does not last we will probably need to do the same for that.  But hopefully with better compliance than we have with flu shots.

 

I think the news just came out of Oxford that immunity after contracting the virus lasts at least 6 months, double what was said 3 months ago.  It has not been around long enough to know yet if it lasts longer.  Some reports have said that the immune response to the vaccines pending emergency use approval is more robust than the natural immunity.  I think it is very realistic to hope that it will also last as long, and that the duration will be more than 6 months.  Time will tell.

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8 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Correction.  You meant to say 253,00 Americans have died WITH Covid-19.

 

Significant difference


OK - so let’s agree (for arguments sake) to cut the number of deaths caused by Covid in the US in half (a very generous allowance) for misreporting - is 126,500 an acceptable number of deaths then?

 

Would that negate the need for action?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:


OK - so let’s agree (for arguments sake) to cut the number of deaths caused by Covid in the US in half (a very generous allowance) for misreporting - is 126,500 an acceptable number of deaths then?

 

Would that negate the need for action?

 I think there are some people here who would say "only" 100 million deaths would negate the need for action.

 

Roy

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48 minutes ago, rafinmd said:

 I think there are some people here who would say "only" 100 million deaths would negate the need for action.

I certainly hope not.  The issue is not the gravity of the situation, but rather what action to take, would it be effective, and how to get compliance.

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5 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Correction.  You meant to say 253,00 Americans have died WITH Covid-19.

 

Significant difference.

 

Even overseas, you can fall off a ladder -- but it's a Covid death.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/11/18/croatian-man-who-died-after-falling-from-ladder-was-killed-by-covid-19/

I'm not following this one.

 

I said over 253,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 as has been reported.  Also, many of the experts I follow say this might be understated.  This is USA only.

 

Keith

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