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Cause for cautious optimism?


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27 minutes ago, kool kruiser said:

I'm afraid that what you heard was incorrect ( I hesitate to say fake news😀).

Having looked into this, the results are based on the data from 24,000 volunteers in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Further results from volunteers in the US, Kenya, Japan and India are due to be incorporated, whereupon the volunteer headcount will increase to c60,000.

Bearing in mind that here in the UK the developers were tasked with developing a vaccine with 50% efficacy, 90% (or even 70%) seems terrific, when we are told that the flu jab has only a 40-60% efficacy.

Here in the UK, any vaccine will be provided free of charge, will not be available on a private paid for basis and we will not have any choice on which vaccine any of us gets.

Having spoken to quite a few people over the last few days, the overwhelming response I have received is of great positivity.

Colin

 

Colin probably was reported right but I was on my car when I first heard it so got it wrong in my first post in terms of numbers and which countries are included. Overall sounds encouraging. 
 

keith

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17 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

 

Are you going to give any credit to Operation Warp Speed?  No, not going to happen; no credit for funding, risk sharing, or distribution assistance.  Nothing; nada; not going to happen.

No relevant to my post. 
 

Obviously it has been helpful in sone cases although for Pfizer we didn’t give money for their development

 

key now is how to get our people to want the vaccine at high levels and how to distribute in an organized manner. 

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33 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

No relevant to my post. 
 

Obviously it has been helpful in sone cases although for Pfizer we didn’t give money for their development

 

key now is how to get our people to want the vaccine at high levels and how to distribute in an organized manner. 

In may not be relevant but actually the purchase of Pifzer's vaccine - the initial 100 million doses and up to 500 million more are part of Warp Speed.  Pfizer certainly would not have invested if they did not know the USG would purchase the vaccine.

 

As a note, Quantas announced they will require the Covid vaccine once approved and released for all international travel.

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Actually, I wouldn't mind if we are required to have a vaccine to travel - cruising and flying.  Then the anti-vaccine folks can boohoo all they want.  I would imagine a lot would change their minds if it meant they couldn't go anywhere.

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1 hour ago, almostretired said:

In may not be relevant but actually the purchase of Pifzer's vaccine - the initial 100 million doses and up to 500 million more are part of Warp Speed.  Pfizer certainly would not have invested if they did not know the USG would purchase the vaccine.

 

As a note, Quantas announced they will require the Covid vaccine once approved and released for all international travel.

I know.  The government is purchasing the vaccines as they will be given our free.  The difference on Pfizer is we didn't give them any money for the actual development as we did with some other companies.

 

Keith

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50 minutes ago, jjs217 said:

Actually, I wouldn't mind if we are required to have a vaccine to travel - cruising and flying.  Then the anti-vaccine folks can boohoo all they want.  I would imagine a lot would change their minds if it meant they couldn't go anywhere.

 

There is already some discussion here in Canada of places like movie theatres, entertainment venues etc requiring proof of vaccination in order to enter. The logistics might be challenging, but it would likely be a way to convert all but the most hard-core anti-vax idiots!

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I would just be happy if everyone wore their darn masks right now.  LOL but very true.

 

In the USA they have been talking in order to reach herd immunity we will need 70% of the population vaccinated.  

 

The key will be education, education, education.

 

Keith

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6 hours ago, travelberlin said:

Is Quantas the only airline flying from/to Australia? I do not think that in Europe vaccines will be mandatory. There has always been (and now more because many think that in the short time not enough knowledge has been acquired about the side effects) a strong resistance to vaccines. Will that mean that those people who are not vaccinated will not be able to come to Australia?


It’s Qantas - no U

 

No they’re not the only airline to fly to Australia - in fact right now they’re not flying scheduled flights to/from Australia at all and have indicated they don’t expect to until at least mid 2020 

 

What the Australian Government decides on entry to Australia and vaccination requirements is still to be determined 

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1 hour ago, Stickman1990 said:


It’s Qantas - no U

 

No they’re not the only airline to fly to Australia - in fact right now they’re not flying scheduled flights to/from Australia at all and have indicated they don’t expect to until at least mid 2021

 

What the Australian Government decides on entry to Australia and vaccination requirements is still to be determined 

Is Australia doing anything to support all those Qantas employees not flying?   I think when I flew Sydney to Dallas in March is was pretty much the last trip for most of the crew.

 

Roy

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22 minutes ago, rafinmd said:

Is Australia doing anything to support all those Qantas employees not flying?  


Roy - yes the Government has been the main provider of assistance with the Job Keeper programme which has been very successful here for those impacted by shut downs or restrictions - this will continue into early 2021

 

With no or minimal revenue coming in Qantas have limited ability to provide assistance to stood down staff, those who have been laid off permanently have received their entitlements 

 

The last couple of days has seen a glimmer of hope with regular flights resuming between Sydney and Melbourne - the second busiest commercial air route in the world - that has been shut for months as Victoria grappled with COVID (around 90% of our Covid deaths have been in that State. They’ve pulled off a miracle and have been COVID free for several weeks now and the borders are now opening up for them. Queensland are also opening their borders to NSW and hopefully Victoria after months of closure to supposedly protect their citizens. So the good news is that Qantas will be back to about 60% domestic capacity soon and will be able to restart more of their staff 

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7 hours ago, Roland4 said:

 

There is already some discussion here in Canada of places like movie theatres, entertainment venues etc requiring proof of vaccination in order to enter. The logistics might be challenging, but it would likely be a way to convert all but the most hard-core anti-vax idiots!

There will be a huge business in forging vaccination certificates.  Has to be easier than forging a passport.  Sorry to be cynical but  -- that's the way it usually goes.  Just another opportunity for entrepreneurship.

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21 minutes ago, bitob said:

There will be a huge business in forging vaccination certificates.  Has to be easier than forging a passport.  Sorry to be cynical but  -- that's the way it usually goes.  Just another opportunity for entrepreneurship.

 

Just like there is for things like Passports and Drivers Licences - but it doesn't make the intent any less valid - and 99% of people will act responsibly

 

Hopefully the authorities put harsh penalties in place for those who choose that option

 

It's not something we can solve however those that choose that option will really only be kidding themselves in the long run

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10 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:

 

Just like there is for things like Passports and Drivers Licences - but it doesn't make the intent any less valid - and 99% of people will act responsibly

 

Hopefully the authorities put harsh penalties in place for those who choose that option

 

It's not something we can solve however those that choose that option will really only be kidding themselves in the long run

99% is optimistic.  But I will remain hopeful.

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20 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

I would just be happy if everyone wore their darn masks right now.  LOL but very true.

 

In the USA they have been talking in order to reach herd immunity we will need 70% of the population vaccinated.  

 

The key will be education, education, education.

 

Keith

 

2 hours ago, bitob said:

99% is optimistic.  But I will remain hopeful.

Yes Keith - the key will be education, education, education.  It doesn't help that some individuals told the public NOT to trust the vaccine.  A lot of work will need to be done to reverse that disastrous message.

 

bitbob - wouldn't it be wonderful if 99% of the population was honest, decent, and law abiding?  

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Personally,  I think the profits the drug companies will make probably influenced more than Warp Speed.  WS may have helped but profits is what drives these companies as  it should in a capitalist world.

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20 minutes ago, ctjon said:

Personally,  I think the profits the drug companies will make probably influenced more than Warp Speed.  WS may have helped but profits is what drives these companies as  it should in a capitalist world.

My understanding was that Operation Warp Speed was about profits.  The drug companies could use government guarantees to establish ramped up production facilities before the vaccines were approved.  One of the biggest delays in getting a vaccine to market is the time needed from approval to creating production capacity to be  distributable in quantity.  Therefore Drug companies would first determine if their Vaccine was in fact viable and approved before incurring the large costs of ramping up production.  But by guaranteeing these ramp up costs would be paid by the government the Drug companies were willing to assume the risk.  The result is that Millions of doses of these Vaccines are expected to be ready for distribution within a month of their final approval.

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Oh I think there were lots of reasons for this.

 

It was certainly prestigious for any company coming up with a successful vaccine.  

 

It was important initiative for the world.  Now I know business. They didn't just do this to be charitable but unlike on most things many of the companies worked collaboratively rather than keep things a secret.  In short, they shared approaches with one another and what they were finding.  

 

They were able to move things quickly for various reasons including focus and knowing how important it is and due to assistance by many governments.  Also, normally many more people would be part of a case study and a lot more time would be taken so they would learn how long it will be effective, etc. etc.

 

However, we are all under the gun and you have to balance deaths and impacts to the world versus risk of moving quickly.

 

Bottom line it's been a great team effort with many companies involved and many countries involved.

 

And the success rate if true is amazing.  I say if true as the information still needs to be reviewed but hopefully it is all correct as reported.

 

It will take a lot more than millions of vaccines to vaccinate the world or even one country such as the size of the USA knowing that two doses will be required.   However, if by May or June if it's true that if you want it you can get it that will be great.

 

I wish we knew more about distribution but am confident we will in the next few months.  By distribution I mean how will they actually do large volume of vaccinations safely and in large amounts and also matching vaccine up to people.  For example if your immunity system is compromised certain ones will be the ones you want such as Pfizer or Moderna vaccine as they don't have viral components.  

 

Anyway communication on all fronts will be important.

 

And as I mentioned earlier communicating about how the virus works and side effects is important.

 

It's not just this virus but in the USA over the years there has been some misinformation on vaccines and this is why some people don't get them for themselves and these days some don't get them for their children.


Speaking of children that is another issue as I know for Pfizer and Moderna they have to do studies on them.  

 

We are blessed to live in this time period where vaccines can be developed quickly and we have lots of technology available to get us through this dark period.

 

In the meantime please wear a mask, social distance, wash hands often and thoroughly and try to avoid those holiday get together which are inside with people who don't live under your roof and avoid travel if you can.

 

Keith

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Please hold off any of the anti-NYT comments. I believe this is not behind a paywall, correct me if I am wrong. It will give you updated access to all the latest data worldwide including all the vaccine trials and historical trends. Try Google Chrome if possible.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html?hide-chrome=1

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3 hours ago, mskatiemae said:

Please hold off any of the anti-NYT comments. I believe this is not behind a paywall, correct me if I am wrong. It will give you updated access to all the latest data worldwide including all the vaccine trials and historical trends. Try Google Chrome if possible.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html?hide-chrome=1

 

Good information!  The NYT let me view the site, without a paywall.  However, several moments later they asked  me to sign-in either as a subscriber or as a non-paying reader.   There are a couple of good alternative sites with timely updates:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker

 

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