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Cause for cautious optimism?


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19 hours ago, Roland4 said:

 

It appears that most "authorities" in various countries agree that  priority will go to some combination of front-line medical staff, first responders, residents of LTC homes, other front-line workers, and high risk groups. By the time they get through all of those priority groups there should be lots of "experiential" data on any/all of the vaccine candidates' performance. And of course, the "fun" will start when it comes to deciding who goes next. I suspect "people who want to go on a cruise" to be well down that next list!!!😁 

The interesting thing is that in some countries in Europe for example,  senior citizens older than 65 years will be among those who will have access to the vaccine as soon as it is available, because they belong to the “risk group “. I guess the majority of Crystal cruisers are senior citizens. The question is, since it is not going to be mandatory, how many will actually use that chance. 
Ivi

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In the USA the CDC is finalizing the priority list this week.  Not sure what they were waiting for but at least this is happening.  At the same time there are some rumors they are leaving it up to the states but hopefully the CDC will drive this.

 

Initially it likely goes to those on the front lines (eg, all the medical personnel as well as first responders), and then it appears to areas such as Nursing Homes for both personnel and those who stay there.  I am thinking they would give it to others such as School Teachers but could be wrong.

 

Ivi...A few weeks ago they said Senior Citizens over 65 (now is over 65 plus a day - if so that works for me.  LOL) or does that mean age 66 and older.

 

There was talk about giving it to people with compromised immune systems (I hope spouses too) and it could be done assuming physicians provide a letter.

 

I still wonder about the logistics of all of this.  In the states flu shots are given at doctors office, medical facilities and a lot are now given at drug stores and grocery stores with pharmacies.  However, the challenge is doing this in a COVID-19 environment and ensuring the necessary coordination for the followup vaccination.  Where I live we got the infuenza vaccine at one of the stores I mentioned and a month later one of the nearby medical facilities where our internist is located did them in the parking lot and in my adult active living community they did them on site and I believe indoors.  Anyway, a major undertaking.  

 

As to how many people get them I believe the key on this continues to be consistent and frequent communication about the benefits and also side effects.  Dr. Fauci said the other day that when it comes to vaccines I believe in 99% (now I could be wrong and if I am I am sure someone will tell me I am wrong) the side effect occurs in the first 30 to 45 days.  I believe in the trials the data will go 60 or more days and he was saying this is why in trials they track the people for two to three years to see if there are any side effects which didn't show up early.

 

Again keys are success rate of the vaccine and side effects along with what are the overall benefits of getting it.

 

While right now 50% of the USA population says they will get it, I do believe with strong communication this number could go up by a lot.

 

Another one where time will tell although we don't have a lot of time on this.  

 

Keith

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On 11/19/2020 at 2:38 PM, mrlevin said:

"Australia has become the envy of the world after hosting the largest sporting event since the coronavirus pandemic began. Thousands around the globe who tuned into the State of Origin decider were stunned to see over 52,000 eager fans packed in Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium with no social distancing and very few face masks. International viewers watching in countries with hundreds of thousands of active infections marvelled at the spectacle as almost all major sports worldwide are now played behind closed doors"

 

Let's see how many new cases show up in OZ.

 

Well an update two weeks on from this match....

 

There has been no increase in cases in Queensland which has had 1205 cases during the pandemic with 6 lives lost in total so the impact appears to be ZERO

 

This week has seen the opening of borders between most States and the announcement of further easing of restrictions such as numbers at gathering, both inside and outside. The contrast of where Australia is now versus the US or the UK is huge

 

However our international borders remain closed and Australians can only travel overseas after obtaining a permit to do so - and there are very limited international flights operating. For those who do travel overseas and return to Australia they are required to quarantine in a Government controlled hotel quarantine environment for 2 weeks

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8 minutes ago, Stickman1990 said:

 

However our international borders remain closed and Australians can only travel overseas after obtaining a permit to do so - and there are very limited international flights operating. For those who do travel overseas and return to Australia they are required to quarantine in a Government controlled hotel quarantine environment for 2 weeks

Stickman its the same here. We are meant to book another cruise by the end of Dec for the 6 days we missed last time. Still a bit concerned as we would hope they open the boarders between NZ and Aussie so at least we could do say Sydney Auckland without having to spend two weeks at a cost of about $3000  in quarantine when we get back. Makes a pricey cruise even with the big discount we are getting for our missed days. I will be checking a bit more before I part with any money

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For those who haven't heard, great news over here this morning. Our independent regulator, the MHRA, has licensed for use the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Notwithstanding the logistical challenges, our vaccination programme will start early next week. The vaccine will be rolled out on a clinical risk basis and it is anticipated that staff and residents in care home settings. health care workers, the clinically most vulnerable and our very elderly should all be vaccinated by spring. This should, of course, have a significant effect on infection levels, etc, etc.

Maybe time for another thread ''Light at the end of the Tunnel''😀. All in all, a remarkable effort.

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6 hours ago, kool kruiser said:

For those who haven't heard, great news over here this morning. Our independent regulator, the MHRA, has licensed for use the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine. Notwithstanding the logistical challenges, our vaccination programme will start early next week. The vaccine will be rolled out on a clinical risk basis and it is anticipated that staff and residents in care home settings. health care workers, the clinically most vulnerable and our very elderly should all be vaccinated by spring. This should, of course, have a significant effect on infection levels, etc, etc.

Maybe time for another thread ''Light at the end of the Tunnel''😀. All in all, a remarkable effort.

Yes, we heard this on our news and you are the first in Europe moving forward.

 

In the USA, our Food & Drug Administration meets on December 10 to discuss the emergency use of the Pfizer Vaccine and Ion December 17 to discuss Moderna.

 

In anticipate of this our states are getting schedules for the vaccine.  For example New York State just announced they are receiving 170,000 doses of the vaccine (I assume Pfizer) on December 15 and I am sure all states will be getting initial dosages on or around the same time.  

 

Yesterday our CDC set the priorities for the initial rollout of the vaccine.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/COVID-02-Dooling.pdf

 

The priorities represent slightly greater demand than initial availability.

 

Some issues to work through.  For example, they recommend not everyone at the same medical facility get the vaccine at once should there be side effects that would impact personnel from working.

 

Yes, since the two drug makers released their results I have seen a lot of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

Realistically likely sometime between April and June when those wanting the vaccine in the general public in the USA can get it but this is all good news.

 

They still need to do studies for children and same for pregnancies and an education campaign to promote the vaccine and explain how distribution will work and our states will likely need money to manage all this but we will get through this.

 

At the same time our CDC has just released new quarantine guidelines for people who have been exposed to others wit the virus.  I am doing this by memory but believe they said 7 days if you have a test showing you are negative and without a test 10 days which is all down from the current interval of two weeks.

 

With all this said, we need to get through the next few months. We are in a very dark state which likely will get darker in the next few days with too many people getting the virus which will result in lots of deaths and likely unprecedented demand at hospitals.

 

So my recommendation is the same.  Be careful and do what the scientists recommend so we minimize sicknesses and deaths and so we don't overrun the hospitals and overwhelm first responders and those on the front line as we have been doing.

 

It's called show restraint now so you are alive tomorrow.

 

Keith

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:

 

Well an update two weeks on from this match....

 

There has been no increase in cases in Queensland which has had 1205 cases during the pandemic with 6 lives lost in total so the impact appears to be ZERO

 

This week has seen the opening of borders between most States and the announcement of further easing of restrictions such as numbers at gathering, both inside and outside. The contrast of where Australia is now versus the US or the UK is huge

 

However our international borders remain closed and Australians can only travel overseas after obtaining a permit to do so - and there are very limited international flights operating. For those who do travel overseas and return to Australia they are required to quarantine in a Government controlled hotel quarantine environment for 2 weeks

I do hope Aussies will be able to cruise in the (nearish) future.  They are always so much fun to be around and I admire their ability to hold their liquor.

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34 minutes ago, cruisr said:

I do hope Aussies will be able to cruise in the (nearish) future.  They are always so much fun to be around and I admire their ability to hold their liquor.

 

They don't hold it for long....usually the glass is emptied in short order.   Then, they are holding a new one.

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Recently, there was discussion about getting some type of vaccination card confirming one had the vaccine.  

 

The United States has announced that all those in the country getting the COVID-19 vaccine will receive a COVID-19 record card.  It will look like this.

 

201202162628-dod-covid-19-vaccine-record-card-exlarge-169.jpg.7386af8bc96db4357f1f6a323dba7a56.jpg

 

We've discussed the importance of as many people as possible getting the vaccine and IMHO the need for a campaign to promote this.  I was happy to read former President's Clinton, Bush and Obama plan to each be covered live when they each receive the vaccine as part of an effort to promote getting the vaccine.

 

While help is coming the challenge is getting a sufficient supply of the vaccine and getting it administered so all who want it can get it and it will take awhile.  

 

One of the challenges is the temperature requirement for the Pfizer Vaccine and even in the USA there will be places where it won't be possible to utilize as they won't have the proper cooling facilities.  Of course this will be true in many countries and particularly in very remote location in most all countries and in third world countries.

 

I was thinking Siberia and Antarctica might not need the equipment.  😀

 

Overall good news.  In the USA yesterday there was a live joint conference on this issue which was given to discuss the vaccines, priorities and deployment.  

 

As I've watched the collaboration on this effort I couldn't help thinking how fortunate we are to live in 2020 rather than one hundred years ago where the technology didn't exists to make our lives easier and where the technology/medical capabilities couldn't allow for vaccines to be developed and in months to boot.  We are fortunate for this and this gives me more optimism.

 

I spoke with some cruising friends yesterday by phone who do read CC and the consensus was this does give lots of optimism and they do look forward to being able to cruise with Crystal again and hope all of this will be a reality.  I do too.

 

Keith

 

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54 minutes ago, hypercafe said:

Yes, having a vaccine surely is cause for great celebration in the cruise community. That said I have gained much optimism because I have again started to receive many cruise brochures in the mail each day. 

Kind of getting back to normal.  I'm getting flooded by Linblad and Oceania, neither of which I plan to cruise or cruise again.

 

Roy

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Here in Maine it was announced yesterday that we are getting about 1/3 of the initial shipments of vaccines that we were "promised" .   So things will obviously take longer than expected.   Hopefully, this 1/3 isn't true for all states

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15 minutes ago, ctjon said:

Here in Maine it was announced yesterday that we are getting about 1/3 of the initial shipments of vaccines that we were "promised" .   So things will obviously take longer than expected.   Hopefully, this 1/3 isn't true for all states

 

When everybody and every place is a priority, nothing is.

 

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I'm still hearing the same estimate of Q3 2021 before we have enough people inoculated for the population to reach immunized immunity.  

 

The optimistic point of that is one I've heard called out a few times -- with roughly 60-something percent saying in some surveys they're willing to take the vaccine right now (not high enough to drive down the infection rate as low as we need it), "everyone that wants the vaccine" should be able to get it by June.  That of course will (hopefully) change, but it's an interesting measure of what officials are thinking.

 

Vince

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24 minutes ago, BWIVince said:

I'm still hearing the same estimate of Q3 2021 before we have enough people inoculated for the population to reach immunized immunity.  

 

The optimistic point of that is one I've heard called out a few times -- with roughly 60-something percent saying in some surveys they're willing to take the vaccine right now (not high enough to drive down the infection rate as low as we need it), "everyone that wants the vaccine" should be able to get it by June.  That of course will (hopefully) change, but it's an interesting measure of what officials are thinking.

 

Vince

These are the same officials who promised testing for anyone who wants it. Have we all seen the lines?  Also, anyone booking a cruise right now needs to look at the lines for “Free FOOD” for those who have no jobs, no food. We live in horrible times which will not end very soon.

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50 minutes ago, orchestrapal said:

These are the same officials who promised testing for anyone who wants it. Have we all seen the lines?  Also, anyone booking a cruise right now needs to look at the lines for “Free FOOD” for those who have no jobs, no food. We live in horrible times which will not end very soon.

 

(Same officials)  Indeed they are!  😀  Testing here in MD is limping along, but it's certainly not where it needs to be in order to control a pandemic.  One of my friends got tested yesterday at a facility by my house and it took a little over two hours. 

 

In this case the implication from the "everyone that wants a vaccine" quote was that everyone would get it by next summer, but the gotcha asterisk was that they used the current estimate on how many people wanted it to refer to an earier spot in the timeline than when everyone willing to take the shot will likely eventually get it (fall).  ...So, yeah, they were being squirrely on what they were implying, but the timeline itself seemed to match.

 

Vince

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12 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

Recently, there was discussion about getting some type of vaccination card confirming one had the vaccine.  

 

The United States has announced that all those in the country getting the COVID-19 vaccine will receive a COVID-19 record card.  It will look like this.

 

201202162628-dod-covid-19-vaccine-record-card-exlarge-169.jpg.7386af8bc96db4357f1f6a323dba7a56.jpg

 

We've discussed the importance of as many people as possible getting the vaccine and IMHO the need for a campaign to promote this.  I was happy to read former President's Clinton, Bush and Obama plan to each be covered live when they each receive the vaccine as part of an effort to promote getting the vaccine.

 

While help is coming the challenge is getting a sufficient supply of the vaccine and getting it administered so all who want it can get it and it will take awhile.  

 

One of the challenges is the temperature requirement for the Pfizer Vaccine and even in the USA there will be places where it won't be possible to utilize as they won't have the proper cooling facilities.  Of course this will be true in many countries and particularly in very remote location in most all countries and in third world countries.

 

I was thinking Siberia and Antarctica might not need the equipment.  😀

 

Overall good news.  In the USA yesterday there was a live joint conference on this issue which was given to discuss the vaccines, priorities and deployment.  

 

As I've watched the collaboration on this effort I couldn't help thinking how fortunate we are to live in 2020 rather than one hundred years ago where the technology didn't exists to make our lives easier and where the technology/medical capabilities couldn't allow for vaccines to be developed and in months to boot.  We are fortunate for this and this gives me more optimism.

 

I spoke with some cruising friends yesterday by phone who do read CC and the consensus was this does give lots of optimism and they do look forward to being able to cruise with Crystal again and hope all of this will be a reality.  I do too.

 

Keith

 

 

I was talking to my doctor about the vaccine and the storage requirements. He said there have been many vaccines that have required super-cooling, but none that have had the same degree of urgency. Basically, he said the medical profession knows how to deal with the vaccine. 

 

I suspect the sheer volumes needing transport will be the biggest problem. We have several companies up here already ramping up production of supercoolers and the distribution across the country will be handled by our military. The plan is expected to be finalized in time for the first deliveries of the vaccine. We can but hope!

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Roland4 said:

 

I was talking to my doctor about the vaccine and the storage requirements. He said there have been many vaccines that have required super-cooling, but none that have had the same degree of urgency. Basically, he said the medical profession knows how to deal with the vaccine. 

 

I suspect the sheer volumes needing transport will be the biggest problem. We have several companies up here already ramping up production of supercoolers and the distribution across the country will be handled by our military. The plan is expected to be finalized in time for the first deliveries of the vaccine. We can but hope!

What is the latest estimate of a timeline for Canada?

 

Roy

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Another sad news for the cruise industry...TUI cruises was going to sail on a 35 days cruise on My Schiff 1 from Hamburg to a private Island in the Caribbean and back. No other ports were planned, just sailing to the island, about a week on the island and back to Hamburg. They had reached the required number of people which was about 1000 passengers for a ship which has capacity for 3000. We considered that cruise but finally decided against it. Unfortunately the cruise was canceled today because no port in Germany gave them the permission to sail after Germany just extended its “lockdown light”. 
Ivi

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22 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Careful.  That's not "approved" information.  The conformity folks will be around soon.

The author addresses that in one of the last paragraphs!  Unfortunately, listening to the scientists is only allowed when the scientists agree with you!

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