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Cause for cautious optimism?


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15 hours ago, bitob said:

And unfortunately our government TURNED DOWN additional Pfizer vaccine doses.  Unspeakably cruel.

We will be the LAST country to be vaccinated in full.

At the time, it would have been fool-hardy to put all the eggs in one basket.  No one knew for sure who would be first with a vaccine, or what the efficacy would be.  There are other companies besides Pfizer who are expected to produce a vaccine soon.  Those may prove to be even better.

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10 hours ago, KenzSailing said:

And your point is?  Come out and say it, you know you want to.

 

My point is that even in "normal" times, hospitals don't have large amounts of excess capacity just sitting there.  The fact that a hospital is XX% full does not, in and of itself, mean that the system is overloaded or not.  Not until you know how XX compares with a similar time period in other years.

 

In 35 states, a "certificate of need" is required to construct hospital capacity.  There are artificial restrictions to keep occupancy high and deter excess capacity.

 

So, let's try to keep raw numbers from dominating our consideration of facts.  Far more critical that we try to put things in perspective rather than just reflexively recoiling at the latest scare number.

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3 minutes ago, jjs217 said:

At the time, it would have been fool-hardy to put all the eggs in one basket.  No one knew for sure who would be first with a vaccine, or what the efficacy would be.  There are other companies besides Pfizer who are expected to produce a vaccine soon.  Those may prove to be even better.

 

Hypothetical:   Huge purchases had been arranged with Pfizer.  Then it develops that company XYZ has a much more effective and cheaper alternative.  Can you imagine the charges of incompetence and cronyism -- "The fix was in to make Pfizer rich...who owns stock in that company?  They must be corrupt".

 

It was a no-win situation, and the best game-theory approach was likely to go with multiple options for the greatest overall result.

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25 minutes ago, kool kruiser said:

Although what you say is absolutely correct, we are also told that this is quite a usual warning for many vaccines and other therapeutics and is definitely not a major concern. 

in an earlier post you referred to the categories currently being vaccinated in the UK. It should be noted that we are also currently targeting our workers in the care as well as health sectors and elderly care home residents.

I agree with you.  This is typical of vaccines and one of the reason they kept folks with these issues out of the trial.

 

Yes,  I  thought that was what I posted about who the UK is targeting. In our case with limited supplies likely the ones being targeted this month will be the health care workers only.  Next category when they get to it will be the nursing homes.  With limited supply at first at least some states won't have enough for all health care workers so they will make sure those who take care of COVID patients come first.

 

Hopefully our Food & Drug Administration will give the green light for the Pfizer vaccine this week and the injections will start in a few days.

 

Keith

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29 minutes ago, ctjon said:

I'm sure a lot have concerns about the side effects for the first 24 hours or so.  Maybe what needs to happen is the medicines that has been shown effective with side effects should be given out with the shots along with instructions about how to use.  Whatever, I'm sure it will be a while and we'll all figure it out - time will tell.

From what I've read the typical side effects are pain at the site of the injection and/or some temperature.

 

I would think if it was bothersome one could take Tylenol or Advil.  I don't see them giving out medicine pro-actively.

 

I was thinking that with the Shingles Vaccine the chance of side effects were high (temperature or aches) or in my case on the second vaccine I had what looked like chicken pox near the injection and it hurt a bit.  The good news is this is far better than getting the shingles and think fever or some aches would be a lot better than getting COVID-19.  I am ready to get the vaccine when it is available to my age group.

 

Keith

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Hopefully, by Q2 or Q3 there will be fewer uncertainties regarding COVID-19 vaccinations.

On today’s local morning talk-radio program callers discussed whether or not they would get the Pfizer vaccine.  The audience tends to skew conservative, and there were many more skeptics than first-person-in-line believers.

 

A few outliers were either strongly opposed to vaccines or believed COVID was a hoax. The most interesting callers were ones who wanted to return to a normal life but had a “wait and see” attitude towards Pfizer’s product.  Concerns mentioned included newness of mRNA science, severe side effects, hasty development of vaccine, short trial runs, quick government approval, possibility of receiving a non-preforming dosage if product spoils (e.g. not kept cold), and/or would prefer to wait until alternative vaccine products (e.g. not mRNA) were also available (e.g. chronic conditions, age group, gender, or race may matter).

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15 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

From what I've read the typical side effects are pain at the site of the injection and/or some temperature.

 

I would think if it was bothersome one could take Tylenol or Advil.  I don't see them giving out medicine pro-actively.

 

I was thinking that with the Shingles Vaccine the chance of side effects were high (temperature or aches) or in my case on the second vaccine I had what looked like chicken pox near the injection and it hurt a bit.  The good news is this is far better than getting the shingles and think fever or some aches would be a lot better than getting COVID-19.  I am ready to get the vaccine when it is available to my age group.

 

Keith

Actually, the vaccine isn't being given to care home residents at the present time. This is due to the issues around keeping the vaccine at the correct temperature. So for the moment it is being given only within hospital settings, selected GP practices will begin vaccinations next week and the logistics of giving it in care homes is still being explored.

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1 hour ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Hypothetical:   Huge purchases had been arranged with Pfizer.  Then it develops that company XYZ has a much more effective and cheaper alternative.  Can you imagine the charges of incompetence and cronyism -- "The fix was in to make Pfizer rich...who owns stock in that company?  They must be corrupt".

 

It was a no-win situation, and the best game-theory approach was likely to go with multiple options for the greatest overall result.

YUP!!  

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55 minutes ago, G2G said:

Actually, the vaccine isn't being given to care home residents at the present time. This is due to the issues around keeping the vaccine at the correct temperature. So for the moment it is being given only within hospital settings, selected GP practices will begin vaccinations next week and the logistics of giving it in care homes is still being explored.

Got it.

 

How about the 90 year woman who got it first.  Where did she receive it?

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, Jim9310 said:

Hopefully, by Q2 or Q3 there will be fewer uncertainties regarding COVID-19 vaccinations.

On today’s local morning talk-radio program callers discussed whether or not they would get the Pfizer vaccine.  The audience tends to skew conservative, and there were many more skeptics than first-person-in-line believers.

 

A few outliers were either strongly opposed to vaccines or believed COVID was a hoax. The most interesting callers were ones who wanted to return to a normal life but had a “wait and see” attitude towards Pfizer’s product.  Concerns mentioned included newness of mRNA science, severe side effects, hasty development of vaccine, short trial runs, quick government approval, possibility of receiving a non-preforming dosage if product spoils (e.g. not kept cold), and/or would prefer to wait until alternative vaccine products (e.g. not mRNA) were also available (e.g. chronic conditions, age group, gender, or race may matter).

Are you serious?  Are there people after 280,000+ deaths in the USA and 15 million people who have gotten COVID-19 who really think it is a hoax?

 

I don't know if it is too funny or too sad?

 

We are never going to get 100% of the population to do something but depending on what polls one reads right now we are in the 50 to 60 percent range of people who say they will take the vaccine and I think we will get this up to 80% or more sometime next year. 

 

The key will be good reporting on all of this and if there are any issues getting that out there too because in the end having good honest reporting will be key.  Assuming results are good this will help plus word of mouth. 

 

Now if we get to the stage where you can't visit certain venues or get on a plane without having the vaccine maybe this will drive the number higher.

 

Keith

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15 hours ago, d9704011 said:

You interpret her comment as a threat?  I see it more as a reflection of the future reality around participating in certain events.

I don't personally, but I am pretty sure it will be perceived that way by the anti-vax types. Personally, I think it, and other vaccinations, should be mandatory, but that isn't going to happen.

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29 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Got it.

 

How about the 90 year woman who got it first.  Where did she receive it?

 

Keith

 

Saw the reports yesterday and the first recipients were given their shots in a hospital setting.

 

In Canada, the vaccine will be delivered by Pfizer directly to each of 14 depots located across the country. One of the problems that has come up is that Pfizer says the vaccine should not be moved once delivered as it can damage the vaccine. This has thrown a wrench into plans to vaccinate LTC home patients first until they can figure out a way to move it safely. It has also thrown into question how to get the vaccine to our Far North residents.  

 

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34 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Are you serious?  Are there people after 280,000+ deaths in the USA and 15 million people who have gotten COVID-19 who really think it is a hoax?

 

I don't know if it is too funny or too sad?

 

We are never going to get 100% of the population to do something but depending on what polls one reads right now we are in the 50 to 60 percent range of people who say they will take the vaccine and I think we will get this up to 80% or more sometime next year. 

 

The key will be good reporting on all of this and if there are any issues getting that out there too because in the end having good honest reporting will be key.  Assuming results are good this will help plus word of mouth. 

 

Now if we get to the stage where you can't visit certain venues or get on a plane without having the vaccine maybe this will drive the number higher.

 

Keith

 

Keith,

 

Yes, I'm serious!

 

Based on your reaction to my summary of the amount of skepticism expressed about the Pfizer vaccine,  I presume you are among the first-in-line believers.   i hope you realize there are lots of people who are wondering whether they should wait for additional experiential  information and product choices to emerge.

 

Jim

Edited by Jim9310
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2 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Hypothetical:   Huge purchases had been arranged with Pfizer.  Then it develops that company XYZ has a much more effective and cheaper alternative.  Can you imagine the charges of incompetence and cronyism -- "The fix was in to make Pfizer rich...who owns stock in that company?  They must be corrupt".

 

It was a no-win situation, and the best game-theory approach was likely to go with multiple options for the greatest overall result.

 

According to a report on CNN last night, the US government purchased 300 million doses of the Astra Zeneca vaccine and 100 million of each of the others. The reported rationale was that the AZ vaccine was A) cheaper, and B) a "traditional" vaccine and thus seen as more likely to be approved faster than those relying on new technology. I have no opinion on the report, but the reasoning does make a certain degree of sense.

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5 minutes ago, Jim9310 said:

 

Keith,

 

Yes, I'm serious!

 

Based on your reaction to my summary of the amount of skepticism expressed about the Pfizer vaccine,  I presume you are among the first-in-line believers.   i hope you realize there are lots of people who are wondering whether they should wait for additional experiential  information and product choices to emerge.

 

Jim

Great Britain just announced two allergic reactions yesterday , first day day of vaccinations to the Pfizer Covid vaccine. Although not serious, cruising can wait and first in line for the vaccine may also wait. Mare information definitely needed!

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, orchestrapal said:

Great Britain just announced two allergic reactions yesterday , first day day of vaccinations to the Pfizer Covid vaccine. Although not serious, cruising can wait and first in line for the vaccine may also wait. Mare information definitely needed!

 

 

 

As an FYI, and as noted previously, the two individuals had known allergy issues, and according to news reports this morning, the reactions were "one day and done". While I personally would have no problem with being an "early adopter" (not that I will have that opportunity), I certainly can understand why others would be hesitant.

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40 minutes ago, Jim9310 said:

 

Keith,

 

Yes, I'm serious!

 

Based on your reaction to my summary of the amount of skepticism expressed about the Pfizer vaccine,  I presume you are among the first-in-line believers.   i hope you realize there are lots of people who are wondering whether they should wait for additional experiential  information and product choices to emerge.

 

Jim

Jim, 

 

The idea people still think the virus is a hoax is mind boggling to me but I'll le that go.

 

I am not sure what a first in line believer is.

 

I am a person.

 

As I write this post a  briefing is being held discussing the Pfizer Vaccine and the Moderna Vaccine trial will be published shortly.

 

I won't be first in line because by default first in line will be the medical personnel as they should be.  From there those in the Nursing homes and those with compromised immune systems should be next.

 

I do hope to be in the old than 65 group if they go this route.

 

By then we should know quite a bit more from those getting the vaccine not only in the USA but in other areas.

 

I took the Shingles Vaccine a month or two after it was offered.  I get the Flu Vaccine every year and usually early.  

As careful as I am following the science on COVID-19 I believe the risk of getting COVID-19 is far greater than any downsides identified to date from the studies.   If I get a headache or ashiness at the injection point I don't see this as a major downside.

 

As to risk, I do not go on helicopters or go on a motorcycle nor would I be a passenger in a vehiclewith someone who has just consumed alcohol but I will get the vaccine for these reasons I mentioned.

 

Keith

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40 minutes ago, orchestrapal said:

Great Britain just announced two allergic reactions yesterday , first day day of vaccinations to the Pfizer Covid vaccine. Although not serious, cruising can wait and first in line for the vaccine may also wait. Mare information definitely needed!

 

 

 

Please see what I posted earlier (Post 506).  These are not people who just have an allergy.  These are people who have a significant reaction to any vaccines and to foods.  In their case it is so bad they carry injections.  

 

I am sure the Food & Drug Administration will issue a warning that these types of people not get the vaccine until they can figure out if there is a work around.

 

Keith

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58 minutes ago, Roland4 said:

 

Saw the reports yesterday and the first recipients were given their shots in a hospital setting.

 

In Canada, the vaccine will be delivered by Pfizer directly to each of 14 depots located across the country. One of the problems that has come up is that Pfizer says the vaccine should not be moved once delivered as it can damage the vaccine. This has thrown a wrench into plans to vaccinate LTC home patients first until they can figure out a way to move it safely. It has also thrown into question how to get the vaccine to our Far North residents.  

 

Interesting about the movement issue Larry.

 

I was thinking Canada has an advantage that you don't need special refrigeration.  You can just keep the vaccine outdoors.  Just kidding.  LOL.  😀

 

In all seriousness I suspect there will be many bumps in the road on the Pfizer and other vaccines.  The good news is how amazing it is they got something out as fast as they did and the success rate is so high.  I guess the down-side is because they got it out so fast we will have a few bumps in the road.  😃

 

Keith

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Have you not heard of people who have gotten Guillain Barre syndrome from a regular flu shot?Unfortunately, I know personally of 2 instances -- one in a young man in his 20's and another in an older adult.  Guillain Barre is not a minor side effect (your entire body is paralyzed) and some people never recover.

 

EVERY vaccine carries risk.  Despite knowing of these 2 serious consequences of the flu vaccine, I still get the vaccine every year.  I will take the risk of the COVID vaccine rather than taking the risk of getting COVID.

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4 minutes ago, bitob said:

Have you not heard of people who have gotten Guillain Barre syndrome from a regular flu shot?Unfortunately, I know personally of 2 instances -- one in a young man in his 20's and another in an older adult.  Guillain Barre is not a minor side effect (your entire body is paralyzed) and some people never recover.

 

EVERY vaccine carries risk.  Despite knowing of these 2 serious consequences of the flu vaccine, I still get the vaccine every year.  I will take the risk of the COVID vaccine rather than taking the risk of getting COVID.

You are so very right.

 

Your post reminds me on a cruise almost 15 years ago on another cruise line  we met a very nice man who was confined to a wheelchair.  It turned out he was a retired doctor.  In one of our many conversations we had with him we learned he was the one in a few million people who became paralyzed from the waste down due to a flu vaccination.  

 

Knowing what he knew if he could do it over again he would have gotten a flu vaccine because the risk of this side effect was significantly less than the risk of getting the flu and its impact on ones health.  I have thought about him each time we get vaccinated as a reminder that almost anything in life has risk but the upside of these vaccine is a risk worth taking.

 

Keith

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14 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

You might want to get some hard data for your consideration.

 

https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-capacity

 

For California:

 

Inpatient bed usage:  70.86%

ICU bed usage:  75.88%

 

Furthermore, hospitals are like cruise-ships.....they don't make money with empty beds.  So the actual usage right now is below the typical demand for December.

 

You can click the links within the above page to get specific numbers for each state and for various categories of hospital usage.

Thanks for a link to different information. I get my stats from the County and Local Hospital. We now have regions instead of just counties and perhaps I should have used the local information.

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37 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

I was thinking Canada has an advantage that you don't need special refrigeration.  You can just keep the vaccine outdoors.  Just kidding.  LOL.  😀

 

 

Keith

 We get cold in the winter, Keith, but even our far north doesn't get THAT cold!!!!😁😁

 

It was just announced that Health Canada has approved the Pfizer vaccine for use. First shipment is supposed to be delivered next week.

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1 hour ago, bitob said:

Have you not heard of people who have gotten Guillain Barre syndrome from a regular flu shot?Unfortunately, I know personally of 2 instances -- one in a young man in his 20's and another in an older adult.  Guillain Barre is not a minor side effect (your entire body is paralyzed) and some people never recover.

 

EVERY vaccine carries risk.  Despite knowing of these 2 serious consequences of the flu vaccine, I still get the vaccine every year.  I will take the risk of the COVID vaccine rather than taking the risk of getting COVID.

This is a perfect example of how incomplete evidence can lead to a markedly incorrect conclusion.

Although there are rare instances of GBS following influenza immunization, the risk of getting this syndrome is quite likely higher from getting influenza itself than from the vaccine.

 

So, certainly,  you can get GBS following a flu shot, but in reality you actually are lowering your risk of getting GBS by getting vaccinated as opposed to get the flu. 

 

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