Jump to content

Cause for cautious optimism?


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, kitty9 said:

Serenity and Symphony have seemed to have disappeared from the planet.  If you check a certain website that gives the location of virtually all ships, both Crystal Ocean ships are nowhere to be found.  


Not so - but like a lot of “information” on here statements are not always accurate 

 

They're both still reporting their position on Marine Traffic 


C73FB4E9-1A43-4EB3-A674-6EE0F1EA7F29.thumb.png.9eafc7e5692d2aaa4647049f2ffa1135.png

 

2A1C5F01-619F-4331-9239-1D12C276EB02.thumb.png.e3e385d42acb28abd5738f4e125d610e.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Psoque said:

It's true that nobody can make a lot of money on dexamethasone and any other old, non-patented drugs, but at the same time, dexamethasone has not been proven to be even a small game changer in how we treat this disease.  For that matter, dexamethasone is widely available everywhere, and if it were as effective as you might think against this disease, we would have made a difference already.  So there's no reason to think that there's some conspiracy by the big pharma preventing us for using it on our patients, if they are in face really effective.

This from BMJ it's certainly being used in the UK, however I will bow to your obvious greater knowledge regarding treatments within the U.S  

Timing is everything

Corticosteroids such as dexamethasone have broad effects on innate and adaptive immunity. Adaptive immunity may be integral to covid-19 immunopathology, as the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome correlates temporally with the appearance of a specific antibody against SARS-CoV-2.14 In March 2020, a retrospective evaluation of the covid-19 clinical experience in China reported that, in the subset of patients who progressed to ARDS, objectively sicker patients who received methylprednisolone had lower mortality rates than patients not receiving methylprednisolone.15 In RECOVERY, corticosteroid therapy increased 28 day survival in covid-19 patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome. Despite concerns about the possibility of steroid associated complications, it would not be reasonable to delay use of a widely available treatment with a demonstrated mortality benefit.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I concur entirely with G2G.

Having recently spoken with someone with much greater knowledge than me in these matters (not difficult!) I understand that both drugs previously referred to are being commonly used to treat patients here in the UK, as our medical establishment is quite happy that they each have, in their own way, marked therapeutic values, without being a ''silver bullet''. Interestingly, although our positive covid cases have shown an increase, we are seeing much lower infection severity (hospital beds and ventilators  occupied) and mortality rates. Obviously can't speak for the US but definitely considered good news here.

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, G2G said:

This from BMJ it's certainly being used in the UK, however I will bow to your obvious greater knowledge regarding treatments within the U.S  

Timing is everything

Corticosteroids such as dexamethasone have broad effects on innate and adaptive immunity. Adaptive immunity may be integral to covid-19 immunopathology, as the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome correlates temporally with the appearance of a specific antibody against SARS-CoV-2.14 In March 2020, a retrospective evaluation of the covid-19 clinical experience in China reported that, in the subset of patients who progressed to ARDS, objectively sicker patients who received methylprednisolone had lower mortality rates than patients not receiving methylprednisolone.15 In RECOVERY, corticosteroid therapy increased 28 day survival in covid-19 patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome. Despite concerns about the possibility of steroid associated complications, it would not be reasonable to delay use of a widely available treatment with a demonstrated mortality benefit.

I’m not saying that dexamethasone and other corticosteroids should not be used for management of pulmonary complications secondary to this coronavirus infection.  It should be used when indicated, and it has been used routinely for ARDS.  What I am saying that there is not pressure from big pharma not to use this drug, or for some reason the indications for this drug for ARDS (which has been a common knowledge for decades) is being hidden from the public.

 

However, use of corticosteroids for ARDS is only for those who develop ARDS, and it appears that it is not shown to prevent ARDS.  And also, the “discovery” that corticosteroids are useful for those with ARDS is not really newsworthy.  Only reason it even ended up with a lot of press is that now there is a greater general public interest regarding treatments for this coronavirus.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Stickman1990 said:


Not so - but like a lot of “information” on here statements are not always accurate 

 

They're both still reporting their position on Marine Traffic 


C73FB4E9-1A43-4EB3-A674-6EE0F1EA7F29.thumb.png.9eafc7e5692d2aaa4647049f2ffa1135.png

 

2A1C5F01-619F-4331-9239-1D12C276EB02.thumb.png.e3e385d42acb28abd5738f4e125d610e.png

 

Stickman, the website I used is not the same as you reference, and that's why I came here to see if anyone had different information.  I certainly was not attempting to spread misinformation, that you very much. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/8/2020 at 11:37 AM, bitob said:

 

All good thoughts .....

But

Dr Fauci (NY TIMES today) -- at best any vaccine will be only 50-60% effective.

Not trying to burst your bubble, but I like to keep it real.

I feel that there needs to be a "medication" for Covid.   If the vaccine is only 50-60% it's not going to do the trick and people will still be getting sick as they do with the flu each year.    Come on with the medication so we can get back to normal.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, boatclub1 said:

I feel that there needs to be a "medication" for Covid.   If the vaccine is only 50-60% it's not going to do the trick and people will still be getting sick as they do with the flu each year.    Come on with the medication so we can get back to normal.

 

 

Way too many people are wedded to the "vaccine" model for economic recovery.   Especially for a disease that does not have the lethality that was once suspected in the early days of this lockdown.

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, boatclub1 said:

I feel that there needs to be a "medication" for Covid.   If the vaccine is only 50-60% it's not going to do the trick and people will still be getting sick as they do with the flu each year.    Come on with the medication so we can get back to normal.

 

Or...maybe both ?

Lots of treatments being trialled as well and vaccine trials are of course still progressing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Even if not lethal as originally thought but do you want to be that sick anytime let alone on vacation?  Recently, there has been plenty of evidence that groups cause this disease to spread very quickly

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ctjon said:

Even if not lethal as originally thought but do you want to be that sick anytime let alone on vacation?

 

OK folks.  Raise your hand if, prior to January 2020,  you've been so concerned about your health on a cruise that you either didn't travel, or wore a mask 24/7 or "social distanced" from everyone onboard.   Seems that rational risk assessment has gone the way of the dodo.

Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Jim9310 said:

 

I know I've said this a bunch of times, but it's worth saying again.  I don't discount the need for a vaccine in the big picture, but IMHO the ability to identify everyone's status quickly and frequently and isolate those infected will be the bigger game changer to cruising.  I think some of the cheaper, faster technology that's further down the road will be an improvement on this, but this is a great next step.  (That's just referring to rapid self-contained testing vs. vaccine, obviously the combination of the two is the goal.)

 

Vince

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/26/2020 at 11:27 AM, FlyerTalker said:

 

Way too many people are wedded to the "vaccine" model for economic recovery.   Especially for a disease that does not have the lethality that was once suspected in the early days of this lockdown.

The raw “death rate” reported by non-scientific sources early in the epidemic was an overestimate of the actual case fatality rate, which is calculated very differently than just dividing the reported deaths by number of people testing positive for the virus.  Also, there was a huge selection bias, especially early in the epidemic since only those who were VERY SICK (about to die) were showing up in the hospitals and only those were tested.  This was all very obvious to most people who are accustomed to this kind of scientific data, but unfortunately, many people still think that the scientific community as a whole overestimated the case fatality rate of the virus, which has never the case.

 

Regardless of this, this coronavirus is still a lot more deadly than a typical common cold or even seasonal influenza, and it certainly spreads a lot more effectively than either.  Because of both factors, this epidemic is still a very big health threat, especially to those living in the regions where proper control measures have not been successfully implemented.

 

In addition, I believe the general public (even some in the healthcare industry) do not really understand what really means for a vaccine to be effective.  Even a “50 % effective” vaccine could really put a dent into a rapidly spreading virus, because we are dealing with something that is spreading exponentially.  Because of this, even a “50 % effective” (this alone means nothing...50 % effective at preventing symptomatic illness? Or 50 % effective at preventing any infection???) vaccine will actually protect more than 50 % of the population.

 

One more thing:  It will take a very long time for any vaccine, regardless of its efficacy, to make the world “safe” again, for multiple reasons.  I cringe whenever anybody says “I will travel as soon as I get the vaccine.”  It does not work that way.  No vaccine is 100 % effective, and the whole point of a mass vaccination program is to both protect those vaccinated as well as to reduce the incidence of those spreading the virus.  The effect of the second part of that sentence is much more important, and that takes a very long time.

Edited by Psoque
Link to post
Share on other sites

The question is:

 

Would you get on one of those ships?

Even if offered free, we would not go.

 

Let me add -- we have a huge group of friends who are frequent cruisers -- 5 or 6 cruises a year or more.  We met them cruising and we often cruise together.  Long cruises.  Expensive cruises.  Not one of them is willing to get on a ship now.

Edited by bitob
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bitob said:

The question is:

 

Would you get on one of those ships?

Even if offered free, we would not go.

 

Let me add -- we have a huge group of friends who are frequent cruisers -- 5 or 6 cruises a year or more.  We met them cruising and we often cruise together.  Long cruises.  Expensive cruises.  Not one of them is willing to get on a ship now.

As someone said in another thread a while go, who wants to be a  guinea pig for any cruise line once cruising is allowed again (speaking for all of us except those in Europe)

Link to post
Share on other sites

We have a river cruise scheduled for late April.

Possible?  Yes

Probable?  No

 

We have several Crystal ocean cruises scheduled after that.  

Not optimistic

 

We are avid readers of all things COvid19 as we really want to resume travelling.  I have read nothing that gives me any encouragement that we will be on a ship any time soon or even in 6 months.  Every "positive" comment is pure conjecture or rumor.  Meaningless IMO.

 

Sorry to burst anyone's bubble.  We are as disappointed as everyone else.  I wish I could see something positive out there.

Link to post
Share on other sites

No, unfortunately either I read that incorrecty/incompletely, or it’s flat wrong.  The weekly US death count for August 29th was nowhere near 370.  I think the DAILY number on August 29th was 1,015.  Heck, todays number alone is already over 1,200.  🙁

 

The numbers ARE trending down a little finally if you look at certain weeks, but the numbers are still shockingly bad, unfortunately.


Again, I admit I started skimming when the numbers didn’t jive, so I may have missed something (or if it was a joke).

 

Vince

Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, BWIVince said:

No, unfortunately either I read that incorrecty/incompletely, or it’s flat wrong.  The weekly US death count for August 29th was nowhere near 370.  I think the DAILY number on August 29th was 1,015.  Heck, todays number alone is already over 1,200.  🙁

 

The numbers ARE trending down a little finally if you look at certain weeks, but the numbers are still shockingly bad, unfortunately.


Again, I admit I started skimming when the numbers didn’t jive, so I may have missed something (or if it was a joke).

 

Vince

I am also skeptical of the data and I did jokingly say it was “from the internet,”  however I did go to the CDC website and the “provisional” death rates are really dropping.  As Kieth says  “time will tell” but let’s hope the jist of what Dr Ross is saying is true.

Edited by TRIPACIAN
Sp
Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, BWIVince said:

No, unfortunately either I read that incorrecty/incompletely, or it’s flat wrong.  The weekly US death count for August 29th was nowhere near 370.  I think the DAILY number on August 29th was 1,015.  Heck, todays number alone is already over 1,200.  🙁

 

The numbers ARE trending down a little finally if you look at certain weeks, but the numbers are still shockingly bad, unfortunately.


Again, I admit I started skimming when the numbers didn’t jive, so I may have missed something (or if it was a joke).

 

Vince

We really need to see the numbers from Labor Day and the opening of colleges to see the trend and that will take about 2 weeks.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I no longer have any cautious optimism

 

The disease is not going away in the US because we are not doing the right things.

Europe is having surges of Covid

Carnival is unloading ships like crazy

The head of the CDC, in sworn testimony before Congress, stated that he does not see us having a vaccine with widespread availability until the 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2021.

 

I now doubt my late April travel plans will come to fruition.

 

Maybe -- just maybe -- my August Crystal cruise will be a go -- if there is a Crystal cruise lines by then.

 

We are not going anywhere for quite a while.

 

Will the cruise lines survive?  We can only hope.

 

I find this latest news extremely depressing.

Edited by bitob
Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Forum Jump
    • Categories
      • Forum Assistance
      • Q&A with Chris Prelog, President of Windstar Cruises!
      • Register Now for Cruise Critic Live Special Event: Royal Caribbean
      • New Cruisers
      • Cruise Lines “A – O”
      • Cruise Lines “P – Z”
      • River Cruising
      • ROLL CALLS
      • Digital Photography & Cruise Technology
      • Special Interest Cruising
      • Cruise Discussion Topics
      • UK Cruising
      • Australia & New Zealand Cruisers
      • North American Homeports
      • Ports of Call
      • Cruise Conversations
×
×
  • Create New...