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Cause for cautious optimism?


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1 hour ago, travelberlin said:

Unfortunately it is not going to happen. I have just read that it is very unlikely that USA will achieve herd immunity despite the high numbers of vaccinated persons. I guess in other countries is similar. The message is, we will have to live with COVID but for those vaccinated the disease will not be that dangerous anymore.

Good news in Germany, almost 30% have received the first dose and about 8% both. Things are improving.

Ivi

 

I think, from a scientific perspective, the concept of a population “reaching herd immunity” is a very problematic one, since herd immunity is not something absolute, like a nuclear reactor reaching critical mass.  It’s a relative term, and the closest thing to something absolute is protection of an immunized population from new infection, instead of control of rather widespread infection.

 

I really hope that the news people will stop saying “reaching herd immunity” or “achieving herd immunity” because they are both rather nonsensical.

 

It is better to say that we may “start benefiting from stronger herd immunity” as more people are vaccinated.  What we don’t know, especially now, is whether herd immunity from vaccination is going to exterminate this virus for good.  That may or may not happen.

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1 hour ago, travelberlin said:

Unfortunately it is not going to happen. I have just read that it is very unlikely that USA will achieve herd immunity despite the high numbers of vaccinated persons. I guess in other countries is similar. The message is, we will have to live with COVID but for those vaccinated the disease will not be that dangerous anymore.

Good news in Germany, almost 30% have received the first dose and about 8% both. Things are improving.

Ivi

 

Ivi:

 

Right now it doesn't look good.  I saw an excellent poll today on this which looked at it based on a range of factors (each generation, M vs F, region of the country, race and political party.  I am afraid the one that jumped out is the political party one is affiliate with and there was some difference between men and females.   It saddens me that politics would play any roll on whether or not you would get vaccinated.  My only hope is they really turn up the focus through advertising of getting the vaccine, that they do a better job of highlighting the benefits of being vaccinated and this might be a stretch but they require this in the workplace and at colleges as some are doing and at the high school level.

 

Otherwise we are going to fact this for years to come which is very sad.

 

Keith

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15 minutes ago, Psoque said:

I think, from a scientific perspective, the concept of a population “reaching herd immunity” is a very problematic one, since herd immunity is not something absolute, like a nuclear reactor reaching critical mass.  It’s a relative term, and the closest thing to something absolute is protection of an immunized population from new infection, instead of control of rather widespread infection.

 

I really hope that the news people will stop saying “reaching herd immunity” or “achieving herd immunity” because they are both rather nonsensical.

 

It is better to say that we may “start benefiting from stronger herd immunity” as more people are vaccinated.  What we don’t know, especially now, is whether herd immunity from vaccination is going to exterminate this virus for good.  That may or may not happen.

I think rather than calling it herd immunity some of the scientists including leading ones say if we could get to the 70 yo 80 percent range we would be in a far better place.

 

I think its fair to say the more who get the vaccine the better off we'll be.  At least logic tells me that.

 

Keith

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The carrot does not work

The stick can help

 

The more activities that are unavailable to unvaccinated individuals the more likely those people are to get vaccinated.  Although in some states the government may not be able to do this, private places can.  Travel can be severely restricted.  While I do not like the idea personally, if we want to prevent sickness and death around the world, we have to look to unorthodox solutions.

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31 minutes ago, bitob said:

The carrot does not work

The stick can help

 

The more activities that are unavailable to unvaccinated individuals the more likely those people are to get vaccinated.  if we want to prevent sickness and death around the world, we have to look to unorthodox solutions.

 

Community outreach, education, messages directed to specific age groups, alternative advertising approaches, and a more focused approach on social media networks in order to target specific group hesitancies. 

 

Also, incentivize. Offer incentives to motivate. Provide someone with a good reason for wanting to do something. In our county, those getting vaccinated at county locations are now offered discounted (or free) passes to next year’s rodeo, basketball games, restaurant discounts.

 

Motivation requires different approaches for different groups. Those that participate in our CC community are eager, totally willing and likely vaccinated at the first opportunity. Others do not see the need for vaccination of a disease that is perceived to not directly affect them. Incentivization may help to persuade and overcome some hesitancy.

Rob

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1 hour ago, mskatiemae said:

My read of Crystal's published use for those staterooms used for quarantine is that the HVAC was to be setup in a way that the hallways would not share any air with quarantiner's staterooms.

 

Perhaps I am too optimistic?


Using that series of staterooms would fit that bill, especially with the fire doors closed.  The ducts would just need minor adjustments to fine-tune pressure, but the setup would be the same.  Really that fits the bill is almost any cluster of staterooms so who knows — it was just something I thought about this morning.

 

The staterooms can, and some would argue should, normally be pressure neutral, with an equal amount of fresh air being introduced in the bedroom vent as being extracted through the bathroom exhaust.  In practice though, about half of the rooms I had pushed some air into the hallway because of weak exhausts.  That can be tweaked though, as indicated.


We’ll see…

 

Vince

 

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1 hour ago, ryndam said:

 

Community outreach, education, messages directed to specific age groups, alternative advertising approaches, and a more focused approach on social media networks in order to target specific group hesitancies. 

 

Also, incentivize. Offer incentives to motivate. Provide someone with a good reason for wanting to do something. In our county, those getting vaccinated at county locations are now offered discounted (or free) passes to next year’s rodeo, basketball games, restaurant discounts.

 

Motivation requires different approaches for different groups. Those that participate in our CC community are eager, totally willing and likely vaccinated at the first opportunity. Others do not see the need for vaccination of a disease that is perceived to not directly affect them. Incentivization may help to persuade and overcome some hesitancy.

Rob

That route is being used.  It is somewhat effective but apparently not enough to get us to herd immunity.

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2 hours ago, bitob said:

The carrot does not work

The stick can help

 

The more activities that are unavailable to unvaccinated individuals the more likely those people are to get vaccinated.  Although in some states the government may not be able to do this, private places can.  Travel can be severely restricted.  While I do not like the idea personally, if we want to prevent sickness and death around the world, we have to look to unorthodox solutions.

Don't bet on essential services like airplane travel, grocery stores, mandating vaccination as those actions could implicate state privacy laws (not HIPAA), etc. Moreover, more and more states will prohibit any business operating in that state from requiring proof of any vaccination. It's up to the individual to decide whether her/she will have any vaccination - including covid. Now - if you live in a state where the Governor/legislature permits that mandate and court challenges to it fail - fine, but it's going to be up to each state. A state like Hawaii may require a vaccine cert.; a state like Florida, etc. will not.

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2 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

Ivi:

 

Right now it doesn't look good.  I saw an excellent poll today on this which looked at it based on a range of factors (each generation, M vs F, region of the country, race and political party.  I am afraid the one that jumped out is the political party one is affiliate with and there was some difference between men and females.   It saddens me that politics would play any roll on whether or not you would get vaccinated.  My only hope is they really turn up the focus through advertising of getting the vaccine, that they do a better job of highlighting the benefits of being vaccinated and this might be a stretch but they require this in the workplace and at colleges as some are doing and at the high school level.

 

Otherwise we are going to fact this for years to come which is very sad.

 

Keith

It's up to the individual - not bullies or mob rule - to decide whether to get ANY vaccine. I'm very pro-vaccine but I'm offended when I read posts by others suggesting they have any right to tell anyone else what to do with their body.

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8 minutes ago, ChutChut said:

It's up to the individual - not bullies or mob rule - to decide whether to get ANY vaccine. I'm very pro-vaccine but I'm offended when I read posts by others suggesting they have any right to tell anyone else what to do with their body.

When I went to school we had to get vaccinated and the same was true fir my children including when they went to college.  Sorry if that offends you. I never saw it that way. I saw it as saving lives; our own and others. 
 

Before we go that route there are ways to encourage people to get vaccinated. 
 

One  simple way is some of this is splitting by political party so how about those who seem to have influence and who got vaccinated speak up and share why THEY decided to get vaccinated. 
 

I also applaud colleges which are requiring vaccination and Hope high schools do likewise. 


This is what I think.  
 

Sometimes  for the  better good people have to be compelled to do things.

 

as I said it is sad some of this comes down to politics which is very sad. 
 

Keith

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

When I went to school we had to get vaccinated and the same was true fir my children including when they went to college.  Sorry if that offends you. I never saw it that way. I saw it as saving lives; our own and others. 
 

there are ways to encourage people to get vaccinated. 
 

one simple way is some of this is splitting by political party so how about those who seem to have influence and who got vaccinated speak up and share why THEY decided to get vaccinated. 
 

I also applaud colleges which are requiring vaccination and Hope high schools do likewise. 


This is what I think.  
 

sometimes fir the better good people have to be compelled to do things fir the greater good. 
 

Keith

 

 

Again, I'm all for vaccination but this discussion seems to have turned to how will we "force" people to get vaccinated. Simply - you won't if you live in a state where the legislature prohibits it. If you live in a state where the gov't allows it - people will either sue, comply, or leave if they don't want to. Feds don't have the constitutional power to require any vaccinations - states do. I was fully vaccinated when I attended school and so is my daughter. But I know many who had personal or religious objections and didn't vaccinate - that was their choice - and I didn't think any less of them for declining.  Lastly, your "compel for the greater good" is reminiscent of some very bad history that I won't go into. I'm sure you didn't mean it that way....

Edited by ChutChut
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ChutChut said:

Don't bet on essential services like airplane travel, grocery stores, mandating vaccination as those actions could implicate state privacy laws (not HIPAA), etc. Moreover, more and more states will prohibit any business operating in that state from requiring proof of any vaccination. It's up to the individual to decide whether her/she will have any vaccination - including covid. Now - if you live in a state where the Governor/legislature permits that mandate and court challenges to it fail - fine, but it's going to be up to each state. A state like Hawaii may require a vaccine cert.; a state like Florida, etc. will not.

 

I'm with you on the things we probably won't see (probably to our detriment), but air travel has never been considered an "essential service" in terms of public access to this point...  I have to peel that one off from grocery store and other basic services.  I don't THINK airlines will mandate vaccines where they're not required by localities, but considering their history to this point I wouldn't expect the essential services argument to stand up if they ever wanted to go down that road.  The US airlines have pretty much gotten all of the public safety restrictions they've wanted to this point (either by FAA regulation or their own individual policies that become conditions of carriage), to the point that they have their own version of disability access rules on their own terms. 

 

Once the vaccines get full licensure by the FDA, if our airlines wanted to make the argument that a free, easily available COVID vaccine would help reduce risk of such a dangerous virus in a dense occupancy situation (especially as they're trying to return inflight service which slashes the amount of time people are masked), the FAA isn't going to look at it through the same lens as courts would a grocery store. 

 

Hypothetically, since I don't think this is the fight they want to have.

 

Vince

Edited by BWIVince
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46 minutes ago, ChutChut said:

Again, I'm all for vaccination but this discussion seems to have turned to how will we "force" people to get vaccinated. Simply - you won't if you live in a state where the legislature prohibits it. If you live in a state where the gov't allows it - people will either sue, comply, or leave if they don't want to. Feds don't have the constitutional power to require any vaccinations - states do. I was fully vaccinated when I attended school and so is my daughter. But I know many who had personal or religious objections and didn't vaccinate - that was their choice - and I didn't think any less of them for declining.  Lastly, your "compel for the greater good" is reminiscent of some very bad history that I won't go into. I'm sure you didn't mean it that way....

I never said federal.  My hope is with a lot of focus on encouraging people to get vaccinated and some people speaking up to encourage people to get vaccinated we will get there. If. It then maybe states will need to require this and fed can require it fir fed workers and military personnel. Before we require I think we can do more to encourage it. 
 

I do think we should do this fir the better good. Same goes when I encouraged people to wear a mask. 
 

in the meantime we can do a lot better to encourage people to get vaccinated.  And I mean a lot better. More commercials on TV. More ads own social media. More first hand appeals. In short more, more, more. 
 

Keith

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We should not force anyone to get vaccinated

 

But that does not mean we have to permit unvaccinated people to affect negatively the health of others.

Fine -- you have the right not to get vaccinated -- but not to do many things where exclusion is permitted for the protection of the masses.

 

The private sector has many rights in this regard.   Non vaccinated persons can be excluded.

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I think we will see portions of the private sector enforcing vaccination.

 

Heard on the nightly news that one hospital in Houston will require all personnel to be vaccinated.  I hope this one is "contagious" and other hospital and medical systems do this.    I do think there is an opportunity for the Federal Government to require this of the Military.  Some colleges have announced plans to require a COVID-19 vaccine and maybe we will see high schools do the same.  

 

As I mentioned earlier I do believe there needs to be a strong presence on TV and on Social Platforms to encourage vaccination and have been disappointed it has not occurred other than a few advertisements.

 

And since this has unfortunately become political I do think it is incumbent on leaders to speak up about why they were vaccinated and why they think it is important as many people as possible do so.

 

It was interesting that West Virginia will pay young people $100.00 to get vaccinated. Every little bit of encouragement helps.

 

The reality is it is very difficult to define herd immunity as at any given time you have a certain number of people not vaccinated but who got COVID-19 and at the moment do have antibodies to fight off getting it again.

 

If we don't take steps to get more people vaccinated I think this will be with us for a long time and will have its ups and downs.  

 

Keith

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I find it sad a government is unable to enforce vaccinations  - ample promotion  :TV newspapers publicity on public transportation  and more of that  is made clearly saying it is free 

In Belgium only "pocks" used to be compulsory , now only  polio  - medical  doctors are trying to make the "measles" vaccine compulsory without result so far

Which people are refusing vaccines overhere : some strict religious people  from various worships, old people not attaching attention  and people living a "very poor" life   depending on wellfare 

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Just wanted to add that the availability of the Vaccines in many places from Physicians Offices to Pharmacies should help and based on what I am reading they are looking at brining the vaccines to the workplaces such as locations with a large base of employees.

 

Now the question is would you get the vaccine for a free beer. LOL. New Jersey plans to do this as long as you are of drinking age.  

 

Maybe next will be a free cruise if you get vaccinated.  😃

 

Keith

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22 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

Right.  I think instead of saying the majority fo the cases were those who were vaccinated it would be the majority of the cases are of those who are not vaccinated.

 

Keith

My apologies to one and all .I had an upside-down moment. Of course, what I really meant to say was that 99% of hospital admissions were from those who had not been vaccinated. In other words, vaccinations ( even one of the two required) are incredibly effective in stopping severe illness. 

As for numbers, about 65% of UK adults have now received their first vaccination and 29% both. Our 40+ citizens are currently being invited for their first jabs. Once again, sorry for the confusion.

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Pay people to get the shot!  That will change a lot of the naysayer's minds.  Perhaps $500, or even $1,000, instead of another government stimulus check to everyone as some in Congress are asking for.

 

Of course they will have to figure out how to retroactively pay those of us who have already received the shot.

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22 hours ago, travelberlin said:

It was not difficult to find out who had contact with whom on a ship or on excursions because the cabin numbers were registered. Contacts on elevators or halls of course cannot be registered but everybody wears a mask on those situations, so the risk seems to be lower.

To put the whole ship on quarantine seems to be a killer for the industry. How many passengers are prepared to take that risk?

Ivi

Although I don't disagree with your statement about low risk - today I can't see a country such as the USA, allowing people back into the country who have been on a cruise ship with a COVID-19 case.  The press would be in an uproar I'd think.  I don't know if any standards from the CDC or states has been issued about people coming back to the US but I just don't think they'd allow even if minimum contact.

Who knows - hopefully we won't find out but...

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Some people already have immunity without any vaccination.  They should be counted in any analysis as equivalent to being vaccinated.  Unfortunately, I have read nothing so far to indicate it will happen.

 

Also, some medical experts say that someone with immunity could be harmed if they were vaccinated (which I took to include hospitalization and even death).  Analysis needs to be refined by our leaders and spokespeople; using generalities only can be harmful.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, nmbrcruzr said:

Some people already have immunity without any vaccination.  They should be counted in any analysis as equivalent to being vaccinated.  Unfortunately, I have read nothing so far to indicate it will happen.

 

Also, some medical experts say that someone with immunity could be harmed if they were vaccinated (which I took to include hospitalization and even death).  Analysis needs to be refined by our leaders and spokespeople; using generalities only can be harmful.

We still don’t know the effectiveness of acquired immunity from actual infection by this virus.  Our knowledge about this is much less than that about the acquired immunity from vaccines, since that can be studied much easier.  (It would be really difficult to justify a randomized study to intentionally infect some of the volunteers with this virus.). However, there are real-life viruses (some strains of cold viruses, for example) to which we are not capable of becoming sufficiently immune from natural infection.

 

Yes, there are some “experts” that say immunization of those who are already immune may result in net harm, since these people may get zero benefit and just the side effects from the vaccine.  Though this argument is technically valid, it is only valid if immunity from actual infection is overwhelmingly effective.  And as far as I know, there has not been any reports of enhanced side effects of the vaccine in those who were previously infected by this virus.  This was in fact a theoretical concern when the vaccines were being introduced to the population, but this effect, so far, has not materialized.

 

I am afraid that most “ordinary” people are bombarded by a huge amount of information, some of it hard to understand and/or misleading. 

Edited by Psoque
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Well Joe Biden set a goal today of 70% of Americans having been vaccinated at least one time by July 4.

 

An ambitious goal but achievable and will put the USA in a better place.

 

Focus is to make it more convenient for people to get vaccinated.

 

Made me feel more optimistic.

 

Let's see what happens.

 

Keith

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1 hour ago, Psoque said:

We still don’t know the effectiveness of acquired immunity from actual infection by this virus.  Our knowledge about this is much less than that about the acquired immunity from vaccines, since that can be studied much easier.  (It would be really difficult to justify a randomized study to intentionally infect some of the volunteers with this virus.). However, there are real-life viruses (some strains of cold viruses, for example) to which we are not capable of becoming sufficiently immune from natural infection.

 

Yes, there are some “experts” that say immunization of those who are already immune may result in net harm, since these people may get zero benefit and just the side effects from the vaccine.  Though this argument is technically valid, it is only valid if immunity from actual infection is overwhelmingly effective.  And as far as I know, there has not been any reports of enhanced side effects of the vaccine in those who were previously infected by this virus.  This was in fact a theoretical concern when the vaccines were being introduced to the population, but this effect, so far, has not materialized.

 

I am afraid that most “ordinary” people are bombarded by a huge amount of information, some of it hard to understand and/or misleading. 

We’ve had 150 million infections worldwide over the last 16 months. If reinfection was a common occurrence, we would know it. And there have been actual studies done, and they all have the same outcome - re-infections are rare. Then they usually throw in the caveat of but it’s just too soon to tell how long natural immunity will last. Well, that’s true of the immunity from the vaccines too. 
 

 The CDC and public health officials are making a huge mistake (among many) of not addressing this head on, especially with the millions of healthy younger people who already have natural immunity from a COVID infection. Those shots would be put to far better use in the arms of older, more vulnerable people all over the globe where they don’t have enough vaccines. 
 

 

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44 minutes ago, sierrafloridacruiser said:

We’ve had 150 million infections worldwide over the last 16 months. If reinfection was a common occurrence, we would know it. And there have been actual studies done, and they all have the same outcome - re-infections are rare. Then they usually throw in the caveat of but it’s just too soon to tell how long natural immunity will last. Well, that’s true of the immunity from the vaccines too. 
 

 The CDC and public health officials are making a huge mistake (among many) of not addressing this head on, especially with the millions of healthy younger people who already have natural immunity from a COVID infection. Those shots would be put to far better use in the arms of older, more vulnerable people all over the globe where they don’t have enough vaccines. 
 

 

Without knowing how many of seemingly healthy and asymptomatic people are getting infected and/or re-infected, it is impossible to prove or disprove what you are trying to say.  I do not know of any studies that estimates the rates of re-infection, especially among those who are asymptomatic.  Perhaps you can share this information with us??

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