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Cause for cautious optimism?


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I do not see cruising starting in any meaningful way for quite some time.

Further, there does not seem to be a significant supply of willing customers based on observation of CC, when even the diehards are reluctant, the general public even more so.

 

Until I know precisely what is the cruise product - from leaving my home to returning, I will not be purchasing a cruise.

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2 hours ago, ABoatNerd said:

I do not see cruising starting in any meaningful way for quite some time.

Further, there does not seem to be a significant supply of willing customers based on observation of CC, when even the diehards are reluctant, the general public even more so.

 

Until I know precisely what is the cruise product - from leaving my home to returning, I will not be purchasing a cruise.


 

Agree 100%.

Unfortunately cruising is in the same category as indoor

dining for us for the near future.

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36 minutes ago, Merry Twinkletoes said:

The Star reports Genting Hong Kong will receive part of the funds requested from the German government: US $227 million to operate MV Werften shipyards through March.

 

The Edge Markets has an article, too.

 

 

 

Original news story:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-trends/Asia-cruise-giant-Genting-secures-227m-in-German-aid

Edited by Jim9310
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On 10/3/2020 at 6:44 AM, bitob said:

Do any of you REALLY believe cruising is going to resume any time soon?

Cases are spiking everywhere -- and are predicted to continue to do so.

Vaccine makers are predicting Spring 2021 is the earliest date for a vaccine and we are still not sure if those vaccines will be effective or how many doses will be required

Health care workers will be the first to receive a vaccine (as they should)

Teachers next (makes sense)

Where do you think those of us who want to cruise are in that hierarchy?

I would think that the most vulnerable population should get the first vaccines - those over 65, those with pre-existing conditions and those in long-term care facilities.  The statistics in Florida - 82% of the deaths occur to those over 65 - 83% if you include those over 55 - with 90% having significant pre-existing conditions and 40% in LTC facilities.

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3 minutes ago, almostretired said:

I would think that the most vulnerable population should get the first vaccines - those over 65, those with pre-existing conditions and those in long-term care facilities.  The statistics in Florida - 82% of the deaths occur to those over 65 - 83% if you include those over 55 - with 90% having significant pre-existing conditions and 40% in LTC facilities.

 

While I am certainly happy that I won't be on the committee that has to deal with that thorny issue, I do confidently predict that "Those who desperately want to go on a cruise" will be well down the priority list!!😉

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10 minutes ago, Roland4 said:

 

While I am certainly happy that I won't be on the committee that has to deal with that thorny issue, I do confidently predict that "Those who desperately want to go on a cruise" will be well down the priority list!!😉

No doubt.

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1 hour ago, almostretired said:

I would think that the most vulnerable population should get the first vaccines - those over 65, those with pre-existing conditions and those in long-term care facilities.  The statistics in Florida - 82% of the deaths occur to those over 65 - 83% if you include those over 55 - with 90% having significant pre-existing conditions and 40% in LTC facilities.

I think that will be more or less the case. In Germany they mention elderly, people living in senior homes, vulnerable people and people working in the health sector. It makes sense to me.

Ivi

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I say front line health care workers first.  Few things are more important, even to the elderly and those with health conditions, than the health of the people we count on to take care of us.

 

Roy

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15 minutes ago, rafinmd said:

I say front line health care workers first.  Few things are more important, even to the elderly and those with health conditions, than the health of the people we count on to take care of us.

 

Roy

Absolutely, front care health workers should be at the head of the line and Seniors with compromised heath should be next. I would bet that athletes in professional sports will be able to jump the line.

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3 hours ago, Merry Twinkletoes said:

The Star reports Genting Hong Kong will receive part of the funds requested from the German government: US $227 million to operate MV Werften shipyards through March.

 

The Edge Markets has an article, too.

 

 


here’s the link just posted on cruise industry news website

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23632-genting-gets-german-government-bailout-for-mv-werften.html

 

Nancy

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The provision of funds by the German Stabilization fund looks to be able to salvage the shipyard's operations until March of 2021 when Crystal Endeavor will likely be completed.  As best I understand it, the German Stability Fund operates through providing either guarantees or taking certain types of equity participation and the article does not seem to provide any guidance on what is being utilized in this case.  So, it seems that this is not just a "gift" of cash and that it will ultimately have to be paid back somehow at some time.  The funding provides "working capital" allowing shipyard work to continue and which will provide employment to some or all of the noted 3,100 shipyard workers in Germany.  There appears to be some political opposition to the funding and concerns by supporters that it might not make sense to do a second traunche (they asked for 570 million euros and got about one third of that - 193 million euros) which would likely be needed to finish the Dream ship in the yard.  This stopgap saves the shipyard operation for the time being but it does not appear to have any impact on the cruise side of the  business.

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I think the prioritization of the vaccine, if this in fact becomes available, will be very tricky.  It really depends on how to think about the benefit of the mass vaccination program.  If we want to prioritize in the order of decreasing risk of mortality/morbidity from this virus, those more vulnerable to the disease should be vaccinated sooner than others.  That was the approach that was (erroneously) taken by the US CDC regarding the influenza vaccine until about 10 years ago.  That approach, though it appeared to be sound, turned out to be not as effective, and CDC now recommends everyone, not just those at risk of dying from the influenza.  However, if the goal of the vaccination program is to eliminate the incidence of the disease as fast as we can, those who are more likely to spread the virus to others should be vaccinated sooner.  Older/sicker people, especially those who are institutionalized are known not to be the best spreaders of any respiratory illness, since they just don't get around.

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18 hours ago, Psoque said:

I think the prioritization of the vaccine, if this in fact becomes available, will be very tricky.  It really depends on how to think about the benefit of the mass vaccination program.  If we want to prioritize in the order of decreasing risk of mortality/morbidity from this virus, those more vulnerable to the disease should be vaccinated sooner than others.  That was the approach that was (erroneously) taken by the US CDC regarding the influenza vaccine until about 10 years ago.  That approach, though it appeared to be sound, turned out to be not as effective, and CDC now recommends everyone, not just those at risk of dying from the influenza.  However, if the goal of the vaccination program is to eliminate the incidence of the disease as fast as we can, those who are more likely to spread the virus to others should be vaccinated sooner.  Older/sicker people, especially those who are institutionalized are known not to be the best spreaders of any respiratory illness, since they just don't get around.

I agree however, those in long term care facilities died at a much higher rate than the general population --- or even the population in the same age groups who were not in long term care.  So do we say - you are older and in LTC so you can wait?  

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From a logistical point of view, one has to consider exactly how any "priority" system will be implemented.  For health care workers and first responders, they could be given priority through the hospital or their employer.  For those in long term care, supplies could be sent to those facilities.  IMO, those are the logical first steps.   

 

After that, the distribution chain to the general public will be harder to control.  They could do it by age, but if they add in pre-existing conditions it will get really complicated.  There would be not only the question of how to define exactly what constitutes a pre-existing condition, but also how would the vaccine provider be able to confirm that the person asking for the vaccine actually has that condition. 

 

From a practical standpoint, it will probably end up that those who are highly motivated to put up with waits and multiple attempts will get the vaccine early and those who are less motivated will be later.  And those who are reluctant may or may not be convinced eventually, after those who really want the vaccine receive it.

Edited by SusieQft
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2 hours ago, almostretired said:

I agree however, those in long term care facilities died at a much higher rate than the general population --- or even the population in the same age groups who were not in long term care.  So do we say - you are older and in LTC so you can wait?  

I"m just saying that that optimization of vaccination prioritization is a complex problem, and I am certain that people who will be making the decisions for the governments are already thinking about it.  Also, I can assure you that there will not be a perfect order in which the vaccine will be administered, and those without a relevant scientific background in vaccine science and epidemiology will not be able to understand some of the less-than-intuitive issues that complicate this process.  One caveat is that for a vaccination program to be successful, those who are likely to contract AND spread the disease should be vaccinated fairly early in the process, not just those who are likely contract AND die (and not spread the disease too much).

Edited by Psoque
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The increase of COVID-19 cases in Europe is hurting hard again the travel industry. Cruises are having it very difficult to continue right now, not only because people might not want to take a cruise under the cruise lines requirements, but because of travel restrictions from all countries.

I was about to take a cruise with MSC Grandiosa this month  (missing the sea, attractive prices in the Yacht Club category, low occupancy on the ships and still nice weather in Italy). I have waited for the booking because neither flights nor the cruise ship are fully booked and because I wanted to see how things were going to develop in Europe. At this time a last minute booking is better than booking in advance, having to cancel your booking and go through the hassle of waiting for refunds. By the way MSC does not refund anymore cancelled cruises, it just gives the possibility of rebooking on another cruise until December 2021 (a quite restrictive policy imho).

It is good, I have decided to wait. More cities in Germany are being declared high risk places every day. Berlin is one of them. Also COVID-19 cases are increasing in Italy again. Authorities in Germany are discouraging again unnecessary travel. Under those circumstances a cruise right now is not possible, even if MSC is doing a good job to keep the ships Virus free.

Ivi

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5 hours ago, travelberlin said:

An interesting CC article---

Are coronavirus long-haulers still contagious?  Apparently this question is still unresolved!

https://health.clevelandclinic.org/what-it-means-to-be-a-coronavirus-long-hauler/

 

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18 hours ago, TER777 said:

 

Here’s CNBC’s recorded interview with Michael Goh, President of Dream Cruises on Oct 9. 

As he was discussing "cruises to nowhere", CNBC displayed stock prices for Genting Singapore shares, not Genting Hong Kong shares.  That may have been an error, although it could indicate a complex ownership structure.

 

CNBC interview of Michael Goh

Edited by Jim9310
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