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Cause for cautious optimism?


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21 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

Wonder if you heard/read how Maajid Nawaz ripped into one the the prime advisors of the new lockdown at Independent SAGE. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/radio-host-crushes-leading-british-epidemiologists-credibility-over-unknown-cost-2nd

 

 

As well he should have.  I also loved the YouTube of a man in just his underwear going into a Tesco Supercenter (which cannot sell clothes as they are deemed non essential) and he is stopped and told he needs to put clothes on.  He replies, “I do not, clothese are non essential according to the government”.   If the governments keep scaring people to death cruising will not be coming back for a long time.

 

I have done 7 trips (all driving) since June and have enjoyed them all.  

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On 11/5/2020 at 8:26 AM, cruisr said:

 

 

I have done 7 trips (all driving) since June and have enjoyed them all.  

My husband is DoD and they have travel restrictions in place. We are finally going to enjoy a weekend away, our first trip of any kind since our cruise last February before Covid hit. We are both SO looking forward to a few days in a cabin unplugged from the world. 

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On 11/5/2020 at 9:06 AM, Keith1010 said:

For now Crystal and likely other cruise lines will aim to cruise in the second quarter of 2021.  It's anyone's guess what things will be like by then.  Right now we are in the dark period not only in the USA but may places in Europe are in lock down or possibly getting there.  Whether or not Americans will be welcome in various countries will depend on how we are doing at the time and if we are welcome whether or not cruises will take place will depend on many factors including what the virus situation is like in the counties on the itinerary and whether or not there are quarantines for those arriving to the respective countries.  

 

As to a vaccine at least in the USA it probably would not be well distributed until the middle of 2021.  And we still don't know how effective it will be.  

 

I do think how you feel isn't just based on where you live.  It depends on your own personal views and other factors such as your health situation.

 

For example, we also live in Texas.  I've never felt we were in a lockdown even when many businesswear were shut down.  However, I follow what some of the scientists say so I have no interest in going on road trips, flying anywhere, going to indoor restaurants or getting together with others for the upcoming holidays.  I would rather be cautious so hopefully we have many future years to enjoy the things we love doing and in "our situation" do not want to take unnecessary risks.

 

I think it is important that Crystal has a goal as to when they will start up again. I hope they achieve it.

 

In our case, we have booked and hope to cruise with Crystal in the third quarter but we realize there are many unknowns but hopefully we will know a lot better by early next year particularly with respect to the vaccine and its effectiveness.  

 

Keith

By the way, the effectiveness of the vaccine, especially the durability of the effectiveness, will not be known AT ALL at the time they are first distributed.  This is something most of the journalists (and some of my fellow medical people) are not really aware of.  It would take at least one year to find the effectiveness at one year, two years to find that at two years, and so on.  So some of the expectations on how the vaccine will change our outlook on this outbreak at the time of initial distribution of the vaccine is set unreasonably high.

Edited by Psoque
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1 hour ago, Psoque said:

By the way, the effectiveness of the vaccine, especially the durability of the effectiveness, will not be known AT ALL at the time they are first distributed.  This is something most of the journalists (and some of my fellow medical people) are not really aware of.  It would take at least one year to find the effectiveness at one year, two years to find that at two years, and so on.  So some of the expectations on how the vaccine will change our outlook on this outbreak at the time of initial distribution of the vaccine is set unreasonably high.

Yes.  I agree and some of the scientists I follow have noted this although the administration has not.  I follow specific scientists who I respect.  Just like when someone gets COVID-19 the unknown is how long those antibodies last although doesn't seem very long and the same will be for the vaccine.  One of the unknowns is how often you need a new vaccine.

 

By the way I don't think they publicize that for other vaccines such as the new shingles vaccine. I've read that at five years the effectiveness is reduced so I will be asking my physician next year if and when I will need to get vaccinated again.

 

A lot of unknowns.  We have an idea when we will cruise again but.............time will tell and we realize plans are not cast in stone and might have to change.

 

Keith

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25 minutes ago, Keith1010 said:

Yes.  I agree and some of the scientists I follow have noted this although the administration has not.  I follow specific scientists who I respect.  Just like when someone gets COVID-19 the unknown is how long those antibodies last although doesn't seem very long and the same will be for the vaccine.  One of the unknowns is how often you need a new vaccine.

 

By the way I don't think they publicize that for other vaccines such as the new shingles vaccine. I've read that at five years the effectiveness is reduced so I will be asking my physician next year if and when I will need to get vaccinated again.

 

A lot of unknowns.  We have an idea when we will cruise again but.............time will tell and we realize plans are not cast in stone and might have to change.

 

Keith

 

Read an article early last week on serum research being conducted up here using samples from early in the virus. It said that while T-Cell immunity seems to fade fairly quickly, the next line of antibody defensive cells (forget what they called them) have shown good persistence, though the virus has not been around long enough for it to be quantified. 

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7 hours ago, Psoque said:

  It would take at least one year to find the effectiveness at one year, two years to find that at two years, and so on.  So some of the expectations on how the vaccine will change our outlook on this outbreak at the time of initial distribution of the vaccine is set unreasonably high.

 

NEW STRAINS OF COVID-19 ARE APPEARING:

 

COVID-19 has jumped to minks being raised in five countries (Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and United States).  Several farm workers in northern Denmark have caught an altered, more virulent, version of the virus from them, and Denmark authorities have now ordered the killing of 15-17 million minks.

 

The World Health Organization has  warned that this new variant had a combination of mutations, or changes that have not been previously observed. In addition, the implications of the identified changes in this variant are not yet well understood.  There is suspicion that they could threaten the efficacy of pending vaccines.

 

Britain has now banned entry to all non-resident foreigners coming from Denmark.

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8 hours ago, Keith1010 said:

 

 

By the way I don't think they publicize that for other vaccines such as the new shingles vaccine. I've read that at five years the effectiveness is reduced so I will be asking my physician next year if and when I will need to get vaccinated again.

 

 

The new shingles vaccine (Shingrix, marketed by GSK) has been studied for a few years before it was released for routine use, and GSK is still collecting data on the vaccine as we speak.  As far as I know the most recent publication reported that that acceptable efficacy was preserved at 4 years after administration of the Shingrix vaccine.  Efficacy of this vaccine beyond 4 years is still being studied.  This is for a vaccine that was approved in 2006.  So, it has taken 14 years to get this kind of data in the real-life patient population.  My guess is that it would take YEARS before we would know the efficacy of the new coronavirus vaccine at 1 year after vaccination.  I guess my point is that introduction of the vaccine will not really make that big difference to how we go live our lives (would still require social distancing/masks/travel restrictions) in the beginning.  Most likely it will take years before we will relax our current restrictions, even if we end up with a efficacious vaccine.  I'm not trying to be pessimistic.  I'm just telling you how things work.

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Just read the interview that Dr. Fauci had with the AMA about the various COVID-19 vaccines in Phase 3 trial.  It is more optimistic than you have said but as he notes he is cautiously optimistic when he predicts when we should begin to start getting to some sort of normalcy.  As he notes it depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine and the number of people who get it.

 

This is where the saying "time will tell" applies once again.

 

This is also why while we have some travel plans for later next year we are not counting they will happen.  Likewise, when it comes to whether our travel plans come to fruition time will tell.

 

On a related note, even with an effective vaccine I think some of the practices many (not all but many are following) will serve us well into the future such as social distancing, thorough washing of hands, even face masks as well as other things businesses can do (more thorough cleaning, better health practices for staff, etc.)  when it comes to the spread of other viruses.  I know we have been practicing some of this before COCID-19 at home and when we travel and it has helped us such as when we were on-board Serenity for five month between 2018 and 2019 and some viruses were going around.

 

Keith

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I would suggest everyone wear a mask and follow the WHO recommendations. I doubt they want to cut human population on Earth.. it doesnt make any sense. Just stay safe, leave your home only if you really need to leave it and make sure to wash your hands more often 

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I do want to add a couple of things to my earlier post.

 

At this point I do not believe we will be at a full norm even with the vaccine given even at best we are talking bout 75% effectiveness and many people not opting to get the vaccine.  However, as Dr. Fauci and others point out we can take those steps towards a norm so we are at a position where we are transitioning to a norm.  

 

I am also hopeful advancements will occur in two other areas; more accurate testing including more accurate home testing and more effective medication to deal with those who not only get the virus but have symptoms.  I am reminded on the most part companies have only been at this since March so hopefully in the coming months there will be more breakthroughs.

 

Regardless, I believe protocols will be in place for along time but I also believe protocols will be adjusted overtime based on the items I have mentioned.

 

Even with all of this like most things each person will decide whether or not they will travel and what type of travel the will utilize.  They will base this decision on those factors they consider to be of important to them.

 

As to the near term, full disclosure.  I follow those who say to use extreme caution.  I wear a mask and would do so if it was not required.  I believe in social distancing but as the experts say more is better and as shown six feet is not enough if you are in the same place for an extended amount of time and also if someone is coughing or sneezing and has the virus.  In general with the exception of twice a week food shopping I only do those things which are necessary such as health related appointments.  I go grocery shopping by myself and get in and out quickly and go when the store opens so there is minimal people n the store.  I haven't been to a shopping mall/store since we arrived home in March and will continue to avoid this.  I will not go on a plane, will not stay in a hotel and will not travel even by car.  I will not dine at a restaurant and we will not have any holiday family get-togethers this year.  I think for get-togethers the only way to do them would be outdoors and even then if they are for an extended amount of time I would be concerned due the need to go inside for mother nature.  LOL, but true.

 

We will see what the future brings. Time will tell.  In the meantime I follow the experts rather than a few who offer advice who are not experts and are out of their league even though one of them has a big role in the short-term.  I also believe we are in the middle of a dark period which the scientists warned us about and because of this it actually increases the chance of getting the virus if we are not more careful just because more people have it.

 

Keith

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3 hours ago, Roger88 said:

I would suggest everyone wear a mask and follow the WHO recommendations. I doubt they want to cut human population on Earth.. it doesnt make any sense. Just stay safe, leave your home only if you really need to leave it and make sure to wash your hands more often 

So simple but apparently so hard.

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2 hours ago, KirkNC said:

So simple but apparently so hard.

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

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21 minutes ago, bitob said:

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

Actually, I don't quite agree with that.  He can still mandate masks at all federal facilities,and I assume that includes National Parks.  The other thing he can do is set a positive example.  It may not sway some governors, but it may impact some mayors and county executives in a positive way.  It will be a long road ahead but every little bit helps.

 

With regard to lasting effects of the vaccine I was just thinking that until recently Yellow Fever was required every 10 years but now seems to give lifetime protection for those over 65.  Negative and positive effects for most everything.

 

Roy

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34 minutes ago, bitob said:

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

He will encourage the Governor's and Mayors to mandate it  which should help a great deal from where we are now.  And as Roy noted they can enforce them at all federal facilities.

 

I suspect if things get a lot worse you will see many Governor's mandating them well before January.  I can't remember which state but one of the Governor's of one people might not expect just issued a mandate.  

 

I do think the fact that he will address the American people and ask them to voluntarily wear one will also make a big difference IMHO.

 

Let's hope we can make it through this dark period.

 

Let's also hope that Pfizer's early look just released holds true although I realize all the facts are not in yet and what we are hearing might not come true.  

 

Maybe I'll take my lucky Rabbit's Tail out just for some good luck.  

 

Keith

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25 minutes ago, bitob said:

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

Does anyone really believe that the masks that most people are wearing really work.  Many, maybe most,  are poorly made, improperly worn and if you watch closely you will see people touching their masks and moving them around with their hands.

 

I have observed masks taken off and placed on dining tables and chairs.  People will take them off to talk!   On a recent visit to a doctor he wore his mask below his nostrils and jokingly said he had trouble breathing with the mask.  Any medically trained person will cringe when observing the lack of proper sterile protocol!  
 

I agree they should be worn where appropriate but if they are not worn correctly they don’t really protect you or others.  I am sure tat they are better than nothing but let’s not kid ourselves that they are the answer to this pandemic.  

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7 minutes ago, TRIPACIAN said:

Does anyone really believe that the masks that most people are wearing really work.  Many, maybe most,  are poorly made, improperly worn and if you watch closely you will see people touching their masks and moving them around with their hands.

 

I have observed masks taken off and placed on dining tables and chairs.  People will take them off to talk!   On a recent visit to a doctor he wore his mask below his nostrils and jokingly said he had trouble breathing with the mask.  Any medically trained person will cringe when observing the lack of proper sterile protocol!  
 

I agree they should be worn where appropriate but if they are not worn correctly they don’t really protect you or others.  I am sure tat they are better than nothing but let’s not kid ourselves that they are the answer to this pandemic.  

If worn properly (i.e. covering both nose AND mouth) the evidence suggests they are quite effective .  I think it is more about breathing out germs in aerosol form that others then breath in then the sterility of the mask. 

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56 minutes ago, bitob said:

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

But he can use the bully pulpit to increase participation.  Your never going to get everyone onboard but for the last nine months Washington has encouraged people to not wear masks.

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1 hour ago, rafinmd said:

I was just thinking that until recently Yellow Fever was required every 10 years but now seems to give lifetime protection for those over 65. 

Hello Roy. A small point in the overall scheme of things but my understanding is that Yellow Fever vaccination is not given to those over 65 because the risks of adverse reaction are too high. So it is a case of 'you'll have to hope you've got lifetime protection' rather than you have it! 

Adrian

(disclaimer - I'm not a medic!)

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1 hour ago, Noggins said:

Hello Roy. A small point in the overall scheme of things but my understanding is that Yellow Fever vaccination is not given to those over 65 because the risks of adverse reaction are too high. So it is a case of 'you'll have to hope you've got lifetime protection' rather than you have it! 

Adrian

(disclaimer - I'm not a medic!)

 

It's possible that's just in the UK. I looked at the CDC website and they listed who shouldn't get the vaccine and over 65 is not listed, although they did say that those over 60 might have a larger chance on an adverse reaction.

 

Patty

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3 hours ago, TRIPACIAN said:

Does anyone really believe that the masks that most people are wearing really work.  Many, maybe most,  are poorly made, improperly worn and if you watch closely you will see people touching their masks and moving them around with their hands.

 

It's like the TSA and SkyMarshals -- those are just "security theater" for airlines.

 

When a mask "mandate" is for any kind of cloth or paper, fitted or open to air, it's nothing more than "health theater".

 

Both are just symbolic gestures, to make people feel that their authorities are "doing something".  For government must "do something", if only because people expect problems to be solved by government.

Edited by FlyerTalker
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2 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

It's like the TSA and SkyMarshals -- those are just "security theater" for airlines.

 

When a mask "mandate" is for any kind of cloth or paper, fitted or open to air, it's nothing more than "health theater".

 

Both are just symbolic gestures, to make people feel that their authorities are "doing something".  For government must "do something", if only because people expect problems to be solved by government.

 

This is purely and simply rationalization.  Rationalization to deflect from the fact that there's only one root motive to not wear a mask in public: you simply don't want to.  But that's such an utterly selfish act that it must be papered over with "masks don't work," "people don't wear them properly" (which implies they do work), etc.

 

But it the end it's really just "I DON'T WANNA." 

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8 hours ago, bitob said:

Unfortunately, we have learned that Pres elect Biden will not be able to issue a mandatory national mask mandate.  All he can do is contact governors and urge them to do so within their own states.  Why do I have a feeling that he will not get 100% cooperation.  Sad.

I believe in wearing a mask but having a single person dictate what we must or must not do, is a step in a direction that we would not even consider.

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