50% capacity ...again. When ? Who’s in ? Who’s out?

[Travelling2Some]

5 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

You know what? I’ve looked at some of them itineraries and they are appealing. I swear you could be right. Make them so appealing that some would put deposits on them knowing they probably never plan on sailing them due to future “ schedule changes” .... very interesting observation .....

And we do know for a fact that NCL currently has no problem with false advertising and selling people cruises they already know darn well will never sail.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, oteixeira said:

What you are saying is fair, but you have to use real numbers...

 

People infected in the US today:  5 million + a few.  Even if you think there are that many that haven't been tested, that would be 10 million.  There are currently 328 million people in the USA (so we aren't even including if passengers came from somewhere else).  Based on this.....

10m/328m  that is 0.03% of the population that would have it, or 3 in every 10,000 people.  

Also, I continue to think (and argue) that the ship issue is not IF someone will have it, it is how the cruise line will handle it once found, and I think the big three are working hard on that part.

 

LOL, cruising ain't starting anytime soon, remember the testing in most of the world is not even as comprehensive as it should be and estimates are the actual infection rate is what 5-10x higher, and then a large percentage are asyptomatic.

 

 Personally I am not in the known high risk, but when I look at the American population or the larger western world the level of risk conditions make me wonder, it does mean we have a solution on the horizon to SS and the exploding imbalance between those retiring and those funding them.     

[cabincop]

It’s true there are so many variables. I have a TA 4/22/21 but my ship has to be in NY for the cruise to happen. And she has to be headed to Europe. Everything depends on where a cruise ship is docked, where it’s headed, & what’s the itinerary.  I’m praying it’s a go. But I am a CAS guest & solo. So if reduced capacity does that mean no CAS guests? Will the casino even open? I’m a craps player. I’m sure slots would still be open.  Ughhh it’s a true cluster....  I have till December to figure it out. Hopefully we’ll have more answers by then

Edited August 10, 2020 by cabincop

[ThirstyCruiser]

4 hours ago, oteixeira said:

10m/328m  that is 0.03% of the population that would have it, or 3 in every 10,000 people. 

Your math is way off.

[BirdTravels]

6 hours ago, oteixeira said:

People infected in the US today:  5 million + a few.  Even if you think there are that many that haven't been tested, that would be 10 million.  There are currently 328 million people in the USA (so we aren't even including if passengers came from somewhere else).  Based on this.....

10m/328m  that is 0.03% of the population that would have it, or 3 in every 10,000 people.  

 

So, you need to fix your tense. 5 million HAVE HAD IT some time since inception. The vast majority have recovered and have some level of immunity. They are NOT actively infected. And very sadly some of the 5M have passed away. 

[beerman2]

OP

i agree there should be some way to show the %, not that NCL and Tech team would do that. 

One reason I can think of is if the cruise is only at 25-30% pax may sit back and hope for a better deal. Which doesn't favor NCL.

On the other hand if it's at 50% (estimated sailing #) and they are actually able to sail with a higher % pax might quit booking because they think the max pax has been attained. Then you have cancellations, let's say 10% decide no way when the restrictions/guidelines are final. NCL has now lost 20% more revenue for that cruise.

 

Looks like more and more pax right now aren't happy with anything ( No cruises, CDC, refund process, still taking bookings). The vacation(s) nightmare continues.

 

I've lost 3 land vacations so far with none in the near future. ( Total knee replacement coming up in October). Cruising is definitely out for now as is flying. I have 1 flight to book by May so I don't lose the certificate.

 

Going by the saying "It is what it is" and make the best of it.

 

 

[DCGuy64]

19 hours ago, david_sobe said:

All of the OP's questions and concerns are totally valid.  Unfortunately no one knows what's going to happen.  Cruising still could be on hiatus in April 2021.  I have also wondered myself about the day it resumes what it would be like.  Cruising is all about crowded venues i.e. pool decks, restaurants, entertainment, clubs, etc.

Its possible that if cruising does resume mid next year that so many have cancelled that sailing at half capacity would be easy.  However what if many are still booked?  

When I returned after my Encore cruise on March 1, I had such a great time that even with Covid rising, I was ready to book again for February 2021.  NCL would not allow me to use my Cruise Next certificate because the cruise was only 5 days.

All I can do is THANK NCL so much for not allowing me to book that cruise.  I cant see me making huge monthly payments for another suite with the anticipation the cruise will be cancelled with unknown return date.

IMHO, even when a vaccine is developed, I think cruising is the LAST thing that will return to "normal."  Cruising highlighted the Covid nightmare in the beginning.  Cruising will not resume until the all clear is given.

I take it you mean cruising from the US? It's not clear from your post if you mean ALL cruising or just US-based. European cruises have already begun (not without any issues, but they've started sailing again). I'm excited to see that MSC is doing two Mediterranean cruises later this month.

[DCGuy64]

9 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

 

So, you need to fix your tense. 5 million HAVE HAD IT some time since inception. The vast majority have recovered and have some level of immunity. They are NOT actively infected. And very sadly some of the 5M have passed away. 

Correct. Unfortunately, the US media is treating the aggregate number of cases reported since the pandemic began as if they're total ACTIVE cases, which isn't true. My personal opinion is that they do this to get clickbait for their news stories and eyeballs on TV for their advertisers. But that's admittedly a cynical opinion.

Regarding the OP's concerns, I don't know how widespread his case is. We have total of 3 cruises booked for next year, only one with NCL. We only have a total of $500 invested ($250 cash and $250 in CN certificates, good until 2024) and according to the current rules, we can cancel and get FCC up to 15 days prior to sailing, which would be around the middle of December. We're not in any hurry to cancel, and I doubt we will. The OP has considerably more invested than we do, so the situation is completely different.

[Vyhanek]

This is when you book your cruise last minute.    Not a year out.   There is no reason at all to be booking a cruise a year or more out,  not when you're cruising in an ordinary balcony cabin!    If you wanted the Garden Villa for an Anniversary week, then ok, book early, its just absolutely foolish to be booking a cruise so far out.    You won't get the best deals, you have no idea what the travel industry will be like or what restrictions will be onboard, and that's if NCL is even cruising.    

 

Even if I wanted to cruise in November for Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be booking that until about the first week of November.  Literally no reason to book any earlier.   

[chipmaster]

12 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

 

So, you need to fix youlr tense. 5 million HAVE HAD IT some time since inception. The vast majority have recovered and have some level of immunity. They are NOT actively infected. And very sadly some of the 5M have passed away. 

 

Do you have any evidence of immunity and how long, that is the bazillion dollar question currently still not understood.

[cabincop]

1 hour ago, Vyhanek said:

This is when you book your cruise last minute.    Not a year out.   There is no reason at all to be booking a cruise a year or more out,  not when you're cruising in an ordinary balcony cabin!    If you wanted the Garden Villa for an Anniversary week, then ok, book early, its just absolutely foolish to be booking a cruise so far out.    You won't get the best deals, you have no idea what the travel industry will be like or what restrictions will be onboard, and that's if NCL is even cruising.    

 

Even if I wanted to cruise in November for Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be booking that until about the first week of November.  Literally no reason to book any earlier.   

Actually I book early & get cabin I wanted. Plus if I’m cruising in Europe there are other factors. Airfare, hotel, etc. my cruise is showing most cabins sold out. And now thanks to Covid my cruise doubled in price. So I’m glad I booked early

Edited August 10, 2020 by cabincop

[Laszlo]

5 hours ago, beerman2 said:

OP

i agree there should be some way to show the %, not that NCL and Tech team would do that. 

One reason I can think of is if the cruise is only at 25-30% pax may sit back and hope for a better deal. Which doesn't favor NCL.

On the other hand if it's at 50% (estimated sailing #) and they are actually able to sail with a higher % pax might quit booking because they think the max pax has been attained. Then you have cancellations, let's say 10% decide no way when the restrictions/guidelines are final. NCL has now lost 20% more revenue for that cruise.

 

Looks like more and more pax right now aren't happy with anything ( No cruises, CDC, refund process, still taking bookings). The vacation(s) nightmare continues.

 

I've lost 3 land vacations so far with none in the near future. ( Total knee replacement coming up in October). Cruising is definitely out for now as is flying. I have 1 flight to book by May so I don't lose the certificate.

 

Going by the saying "It is what it is" and make the best of it.

If you need to have both knees done get them done at the same time. I know a few people who went this way. First week is hell, either getting both or one done. Getting both done at the same time recovery time is just a little longer

5 hours ago, beerman2 said:

 

 

[beerman2]

1 minute ago, Laszlo said:

If you need to have both knees done get them done at the same time. I know a few people who went this way. First week is hell, either getting both or one done. Getting both done at the same time recovery time is just a little longer

 

Thanks but just the right one is bad. Left hip was replaced in Feb right before all this Covid started or should I say identified.

 

Amazes me how bent out of shape some people get not being able to Cruise. It’s a luxury not a necessity.

[Laszlo]

Just now, beerman2 said:

Thanks but just the right one is bad. Left hip was replaced in Feb right before all this Covid started or should I say identified.

 

Amazes me how bent out of shape some people get not being able to Cruise. It’s a luxury not a necessity.

I agree, good luck in October!

[tallnthensome]

1 hour ago, Vyhanek said:

This is when you book your cruise last minute.    Not a year out.   There is no reason at all to be booking a cruise a year or more out,  not when you're cruising in an ordinary balcony cabin!    If you wanted the Garden Villa for an Anniversary week, then ok, book early, its just absolutely foolish to be booking a cruise so far out.    You won't get the best deals, you have no idea what the travel industry will be like or what restrictions will be onboard, and that's if NCL is even cruising.    

 

Even if I wanted to cruise in November for Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be booking that until about the first week of November.  Literally no reason to book any earlier.   

I disagree .... as I posted earlier . I booked December of 2019 for my 2021 Encore cruise ..... Balcony for four , perks, $3895. Now it’s $6300. I’ve always got the best deals when bookings open. No way my April spring cruise drops below what I paid if it sails even last minute which is impossible for us anyhow .  

[oteixeira]

14 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

 

So, you need to fix your tense. 5 million HAVE HAD IT some time since inception. The vast majority have recovered and have some level of immunity. They are NOT actively infected. And very sadly some of the 5M have passed away. 

I agree that not all cases are active, and I doubled them, because I wanted to show worst case so people could see it is still a very small number, and I did the math wrong, because I was typing to fast, it's actually 3%, not 0.03%.  Sorry if I was not clear on that.

[Two Wheels Only]

3 hours ago, Vyhanek said:

Even if I wanted to cruise in November for Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be booking that until about the first week of November.  Literally no reason to book any earlier.

46 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

I disagree .... as I posted earlier . I booked December of 2019 for my 2021 Encore cruise ..... Balcony for four , perks, $3895. Now it’s $6300. I’ve always got the best deals when bookings open. 

 

I also disagree. Cruise prices are like a roller coaster. They go up and down and up and down. There is no blanket statement as to whether booking early is better or booking later is better. Book and see what happens (obviously, Covid-19 wasn't foreseen by people booking a year ago). If prices go up, no problem. You're locked into the lower price. If prices go down, cancel and re-book at the lower price. The same with promos. If they get better, re-book with the better promo. If they get worse, you're locked into the promo from when you booked. 

 

Some will book after final payment date. Booking last minute works better for some than for others. There are many factors such as stateroom availability, flights (if needed) and their pricing, flexibility with schedule, etc. Some people (not me) can cruise at any time. Some people can drive to the port (me). Some people aren't particular about their specific stateroom (definitely not me). Different scenarios work for different people. 

 

1 hour ago, tallnthensome said:

No way my April spring cruise drops below what I paid if it sails even last minute which is impossible for us anyhow .  

 

My cruise (MSC) scheduled for Spring is completely sold out in the Yacht Club. From the time I booked, prices went up and never dropped below or even matched what I paid. Booking later was not an option. IF there are a ton of cancellations and prices drop, I'll react. If it sails as planned, I'll go. If MSC cancels the cruise, I'll get my money back. I cancelled one MSC cruise (and booked another departing the day after) and received my money back in 31 days. 

[Darcy03231]

On 8/10/2020 at 11:40 AM, Vyhanek said:

This is when you book your cruise last minute.    Not a year out.   There is no reason at all to be booking a cruise a year or more out,  not when you're cruising in an ordinary balcony cabin!    If you wanted the Garden Villa for an Anniversary week, then ok, book early, its just absolutely foolish to be booking a cruise so far out.    You won't get the best deals, you have no idea what the travel industry will be like or what restrictions will be onboard, and that's if NCL is even cruising.    

 

Even if I wanted to cruise in November for Thanksgiving, I wouldn't be booking that until about the first week of November.  Literally no reason to book any earlier.   

 I'll have to disagree.  I booked a cruise for 2022 and all I've put down is the $250 deposit.  If I booked that same cruise today it's $500 more and I don't get all of the perks I got when I first booked it.

[farmersfight]

51 minutes ago, Darcy03231 said:

 I'll have to disagree.  I booked a cruise for 2022 and all I've put down is the $250 deposit.  If I booked that same cruise today it's $500 more and I don't get all of the perks I got when I first booked it.

 

I can understand getting good deals when booking early (and probably more perks). But I would be impatient waiting for a full year (even 1/2 a year) or more for the cruise I booked so early.

 

I'm recently retired so I am now fortunate to be able to cruise on very short notice. I'm hoping that NCL (or other cruise line) will have empty cabins to fill and will discount them as it gets closer to the sailing date.

 

Of course with covid 19, if NCL starts sailing at 50% or so capacity, last minute discounts on cabins to fill the ship would be out the window. I don't want to sail with all the covid measures (masks, etc) anyway. Fingers crossed 🤞 for a safe & effective vaccine.

 

P.S. Yeah, I am aware that I would have to pay more for airline flights and hotels but I'd be willing to pay the higher costs.

Edited August 13, 2020 by farmersfight

[Travelling2Some]

Here is a short list of things that make last minute booking unfeasible for many:

 

1.) You are traveling with a group or have a large family.  When we used to cruise with our 5 children we needed 3 balconies in an unbroken row.  Not something you can count on getting last minute.

2.) You are picky about cabin location because you are a light sleeper or get seasick easily.

3.) You have a land vacation (not just a night or two in a hotel at the port) either before/after the cruise (both usually in our case) requiring a good bit of advance planning and reservations.

4.) You are flying a great distance at considerable expense (Asia, Australia, etc.) and last minute flights are significantly more expensive.

5.) You simply prefer to have things well organized in advance because you don't care for the stress of doing things last minute.

6.)  You are picky about getting exactly what you want in your land arrangements not whatever happens to be left over in the way of hotel rooms and timed reservations for sights.  It can be necessary to book months in advance to get a ticket to the Eiffel Tower at sunset or a table directly on the cliff edge in Santorini.

7.) You simply enjoy doing the advance research for trip planning and like to be able to look forward to things.

 

Everyone's preferences in travel are different and there is no one size fits all. 

 

Edited August 13, 2020 by Travelling2Some
typo

[Budget Queen]

On 8/10/2020 at 1:24 PM, tallnthensome said:

I disagree .... as I posted earlier . I booked December of 2019 for my 2021 Encore cruise ..... Balcony for four , perks, $3895. Now it’s $6300. I’ve always got the best deals when bookings open. No way my April spring cruise drops below what I paid if it sails even last minute which is impossible for us anyhow .  

It isn't so predictable.   🙂    And cruises-   can certainly dump,  way lower than what you paid.

 

Your advance booking works for YOU.    All that matters.     But-  it's also possible,  a $599 balcony is available  a week prior to sailing.  😉       I've seen it -  multiple times in the past  as I'm one of those last minute bookers.   🙂     (59  cruises since 2017-  all last minute)

[hamrag]

On 8/10/2020 at 7:10 PM, oteixeira said:

.....I did the math wrong, because I was typing to fast, it's actually 3%, not 0.03%.  Sorry if I was not clear on that.

 

So, your math was out by a factor of 100, which you now describe as 'not clear'!! 🙄

[farmersfight]

12 hours ago, Budget Queen said:

 But-  it's also possible,  a $599 balcony is available  a week prior to sailing.  😉       I've seen it -  multiple times in the past  as I'm one of those last minute bookers.   🙂     (59  cruises since 2017-  all last minute)

 

Great to know because this is the way I will "roll" (whenever cruising resumes). I'm recently retired so I'm fortunate enough to be able to book last minute and cruise "at the drop of a hat". Not that I haven't booked in advance before but I'm too impatient to wait a year or more for the cruise I booked. Too excited!

[Budget Queen]

5 hours ago, farmersfight said:

 

Great to know because this is the way I will "roll" (whenever cruising resumes). I'm recently retired so I'm fortunate enough to be able to book last minute and cruise "at the drop of a hat". Not that I haven't booked in advance before but I'm too impatient to wait a year or more for the cruise I booked. Too excited!

You're in Michigan?    Is transportation going to be any issue?   Are you going to be hedging your bets?    Or,  are you  going to have to eliminate itineraries?     

 

There is NO predictability that there will even be last minute-  fire sale prices.  ????   Most other cruise lines-  don't offer this marketing.    

 

You must be able to make very fast-  efficient decisions,  and be well organized     Best to be open to unexpected-   there can be a lot of twists and turns.    I found myself last year,   tracking a few possibilities-  that never materialized,   then-  wham,  an unexpected dump appears.        Shortest-  time,  I've done -  with no intention of a particular cruise or itinerary-   was 4 hours   from booking to out the door to the airport.     All packing,  hotel,  transfers,  flight arrangements made in that time.     

 

My last cruise-  2-29-20   -  I had thought about it,   nothing booked.    I left one cruise,  then on a flight home.   When I got to Lax,   I had several hours-   checked  thought about cruise again-    flight was available,  so I booked,   and left a few hours later,   getting on the ship the next day.  🙂   

 

So,  do some prep work ahead of time.   lodging options,   transits,   flights etc.   

[DCGuy64]

On 8/13/2020 at 1:36 PM, Travelling2Some said:

Here is a short list of things that make last minute booking unfeasible for many:

 

1.) You are traveling with a group or have a large family.  When we used to cruise with our 5 children we needed 3 balconies in an unbroken row.  Not something you can count on getting last minute.

2.) You are picky about cabin location because you are a light sleeper or get seasick easily.

3.) You have a land vacation (not just a night or two in a hotel at the port) either before/after the cruise (both usually in our case) requiring a good bit of advance planning and reservations.

4.) You are flying a great distance at considerable expense (Asia, Australia, etc.) and last minute flights are significantly more expensive.

5.) You simply prefer to have things well organized in advance because you don't care for the stress of doing things last minute.

6.)  You are picky about getting exactly what you want in your land arrangements not whatever happens to be left over in the way of hotel rooms and timed reservations for sights.  It can be necessary to book months in advance to get a ticket to the Eiffel Tower at sunset or a table directly on the cliff edge in Santorini.

7.) You simply enjoy doing the advance research for trip planning and like to be able to look forward to things.

 

Everyone's preferences in travel are different and there is no one size fits all. 

 

Very good points! Since my wife and I both work, we have to request time off for vacation and in my case, it needs to be done pretty far in advance or I risk getting a "no" from my boss. While it's possible I could request the time off and then just see what turns up last minute, I'd then be stuck having to choose from only what's available during my designated vacation period, and I like having more control over my options than that. We're hoping to retire in Italy and then we'll only be 2 hours from Civitavecchia. ☺️