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22 minutes ago, AlanRRT said:

I've been wondering about some things regarding the Leonard

My guess would be, the mega ships are limited to what ports they can visit. So Leonard should be small enough to go to most if not all ports. 

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1 hour ago, AlanRRT said:

I've been wondering about some things regarding the Leonardo class ships, which I know the only way to have answers is to sit in on a meeting of the board of directors of NCL.

1.  With six new ships either being built or on order, is NCL planning on expanding their fleet, or scrapping some of their older ships?  Or something in between?  NCL's oldest ships are running up on the 25 year average working life of a cruise ship.

2.  I find it interesting that NCL is not participating in the race to build the next world's largest cruise ship, and is actually going smaller.  Are they trying to go more upscale?  And if so, I'm sure this means cruise fares will rise.

3.  Or is there more of a demand for ships in the ~3,000 passenger range?  Has the cruise industry reached the limit as to what the cruising public wants in the size of a ship?

4.  Since the ships have fewer passengers, will there be even more extra cost activities?  NCL will have to make up the costs somewhere.

5.  I know that the Leonardo class ships were planned long before the pandemic, but with more public space, the timing of Prima starting its life just as cruising is starting up again has to be working in NCL's favor.  It's easier to be spread out from other people.  It will be interesting to see how NCL markets the larger cabins and public spaces.

I know that given time, the answers will come out, and anything else is purely speculation.

All six of the ships were ordered before the pandemic, so whatever the plans were they might have changed.  Maybe more information will be forthcoming on the Q2 investor call.  If the older ships are still working out for NCL then I would think they might have value beyond scrap, but this might not be a great time to be trying to sell.

 

If I recall correctly Epic was the only NCL ship that was close to the largest of its day, so it seems like they have never really been competing in that race.  Besides port limitations, maybe it also gets difficult to fill ships on some itineraries.  It might work for the larger cruise lines to have a few mega ships for super high demand itineraries but NCL might prefer more flexibility.

 

I don't know a lot of details, but I believe that efficiency was talked about with Prima, so maybe there are savings that help offset the lower passenger density.  Most likely there will also be more extra cost activities, though.  The Indulge food hall is something of an example of that.

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1 hour ago, AlanRRT said:

I've been wondering about some things regarding the Leonardo class ships, which I know the only way to have answers is to sit in on a meeting of the board of directors of NCL.

1.  With six new ships either being built or on order, is NCL planning on expanding their fleet, or scrapping some of their older ships?  Or something in between?  NCL's oldest ships are running up on the 25 year average working life of a cruise ship.

2.  I find it interesting that NCL is not participating in the race to build the next world's largest cruise ship, and is actually going smaller.  Are they trying to go more upscale?  And if so, I'm sure this means cruise fares will rise.

3.  Or is there more of a demand for ships in the ~3,000 passenger range?  Has the cruise industry reached the limit as to what the cruising public wants in the size of a ship?

4.  Since the ships have fewer passengers, will there be even more extra cost activities?  NCL will have to make up the costs somewhere.

5.  I know that the Leonardo class ships were planned long before the pandemic, but with more public space, the timing of Prima starting its life just as cruising is starting up again has to be working in NCL's favor.  It's easier to be spread out from other people.  It will be interesting to see how NCL markets the larger cabins and public spaces.

I know that given time, the answers will come out, and anything else is purely speculation.

My own opinion on some of your very interesting questions:

1. I think it will be a mix of both.  The first 2 or 3 ships will  expand the fleet.  They already plan cruises for all 17 current ships for at least the next 2 years.  Some of the Jewel class ships are getting older.  So I won't be surprised if starting in 2024 or 2025, some of the older ones will be removed from service and replaced by a Leonardo ship.

 

2. I think that NCL has realized that passengers are eager to discover new ports.  And many of them either cannot take the mega ships or, given the environmental issue, will not allow ships with a huge footprint to sail to those destination.  The Norwegian Fjords are the perfect example.  Also, as crusing interest is increasing every year, there are areas where the demand will increase but not enough to justify the use of a mega ship.  The best example is South America andAntartica.  There is currently no market for a 4000 passenger ship.  And, I don't think you can sail a mega ship in the Chilian Fjords

NCL is currently sailing the  Star in that area.  And it was almost full.  A Leonardo ship would be perfect to increase the offer from 2200 cabins to 3200.  Same situation with the Seward to Vancouver route.  Currently they have either the Sun or the Jewel doing that route.  2 old ships with roughly 2000 passengers.  A Leonardo ship would be perfect.  And some other routes in Asia would also fit that patern.  Mega ships are there to stay.  They will sail the currrent routes where the volume is huge.  Carribeans, Panama Canal, the east coast of Alaska, and some routes in Europe between Southampton, Barcelona Rome and Athens. I think NCL has enough mega ships to be able to pull off thier share of that market.  For the rest of the world, medium size ships will be better.

3. For sure that there are lots of people that don't want to cruise on a 5000 passenger ship.  My personnal experience is that once you are on the ship, they are so big that you don't really notice the number of passengers.  But the issues I have is first, for the embarkation process.  To process 5000 passengers you need huge terminal.  If you watched the 3rd episode of Embark, this is what the new terminal at Port Miami is all about.  But there are no 20 of those terminals. Second, my bigest issue is the port of calls.  I have experiences long line-ups as everyone wants to disembark to go on excursion.  And, late afternoon, when everybody commes back to the ship, they have a maximum of 2 gang ways for people to board the ship.  I have waited 75 minutes in line under the rain to board the Getaway in Rome. I was not happy. You don't have that problem with smaller ships.

4. It is a given that they will try to find ways to increase revenue. But they are already sailing smaller ships between 2000 and 2400 passengers.  The cost of a new ship is financed over a 20 year period.  So I don't see it as an issue.  They have to remain competitive against the other cruise lines.  The worst nightmare for cruise lines is the passengers that are booking the cheapest cabins and don't spend a penny on the ship. They only use the complimentary facilites. And they make their money with the optional stuff.  The specialty restaurants, Starbuck coffee, the duty free shops, the spa, Ice cream parlor and others.  I think the Prima will try to mitigate that.  The food hall will have come complimentary stuff for morning and lunch but a la carte for dinner.  In the future, I would not be surprised to see a reduction of the complimentary offer. And probably a reduction of the number of inside cabins and an increase of the price of those cabins.

5. You are right but not only because of the pandemic situation.  I think that the average cruiser has enough of tiny staterooms, bathroom where you are seated on the toilet to shower or you have to be under 100 pounds to be able to walk between the bed and the wall.  Same situation with the outdoor space. We all have been in the situation that we wanted to watch something outboard and ending to be cramped among 2000 other heads that wanted to see the same thing.  I bet that many people that never cruised with NCL, once they see the Prima and her following siblings, they will want at least to give it a try.  And it will take a decade for the other lines to plan and take delivery of similar ships.  They are not aiming to the Celibrity clients. At least, not for now.  There are still people that hate freestyle and want to have formal nights and the like.  But they mainly want to hit RC, HAL and Princess. NCL is already too expensive for many Carnival cruisers.  And I wouldn't be surprised if they succeed.  The Prima pictures are all over the internet, including Facebook and Instagram.  We hear only  WOWs and HOs.  If the Prima meets the expectations, Frank Del Rio will be considered as a genious.  There will be stuff what we will not like on the Prima.  And it will be probably too late to fix them on the Leonardo 2.  But with the Leonardo 3 to 6, I think we will be in awe.

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Posted (edited)

Leonardo 2 spotted on the Cannes (Med, France) port schedule for 2023, starting June 22.

 

Port    Date d'arrivée    Heure d'arrivée    Date de départ    Heure de départ    Navire

Cannes    2023-06-22    08:00    2023-06-22    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-07-06    09:00    2023-07-06    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-07-14    06:00    2023-07-14    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-03    08:00    2023-08-03    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-17    09:00    2023-08-17    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-25    06:00    2023-08-25    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-09-14    08:00    2023-09-14    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-09-28    09:00    2023-09-28    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-10-06    06:00    2023-10-06    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-10-23    06:00    2023-10-23    16:00    LEONARDO 2

 

edit: source: http://www.riviera-ports.com/nos-services/croisiere/planning-escale :classic_smile:

Edited by FreestyleNovice
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1 hour ago, FreestyleNovice said:

Leonardo 2 spotted on the Cannes (Med, France) port schedule for 2023, starting June 22.

 

Port    Date d'arrivée    Heure d'arrivée    Date de départ    Heure de départ    Navire

Cannes    2023-06-22    08:00    2023-06-22    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-07-06    09:00    2023-07-06    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-07-14    06:00    2023-07-14    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-03    08:00    2023-08-03    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-17    09:00    2023-08-17    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-08-25    06:00    2023-08-25    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-09-14    08:00    2023-09-14    18:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-09-28    09:00    2023-09-28    19:30    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-10-06    06:00    2023-10-06    16:00    LEONARDO 2

Cannes    2023-10-23    06:00    2023-10-23    16:00    LEONARDO 2

 

edit: source: http://wtww.riviera-ports.com/nos-services/croisiere/planning-escale :classic_smile:

So the Leonardo 2 would be delivered late May, early June 2023.  That is only 10 months after the Prima.  The cruise dates are weird.  Sometimes there is 8 days between stops, other times 14 and even 21 days.  Usually, Cannes is either the day before or the day after Livorno. So it would include include Napoli, Rome, Livorno, Cannes and probably Barcelona.  So I presume that there will be a variety of cruises that could go from Southampton to Athens with stops in Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece.  I wouldn't be surprised if the cruise  that stops at Cannes on October 23 be part of a TA or the TA will occur right after the end of that cruise.   Interesting.  They announced the Prima cruises 15 months prior to inaugural sailing. So I expect the announcement (name and list of cruises) for either Christmas 2021 or early 2022. 

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@Steff79 reported that Leo 2 was calling at Cadiz, a few months ago (in this thread) so it appears at least a few rounds in the Med after her handover. Searching the popular ports cmbined with Leonardo 2 with Google might reveal some more but that's a real big job heh. :classic_biggrin:

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17 hours ago, BenCoudon said:

My own opinion on some of your very interesting questions:

1. I think it will be a mix of both.  The first 2 or 3 ships will  expand the fleet.  They already plan cruises for all 17 current ships for at least the next 2 years.  Some of the Jewel class ships are getting older.  So I won't be surprised if starting in 2024 or 2025, some of the older ones will be removed from service and replaced by a Leonardo ship.

 

2. I think that NCL has realized that passengers are eager to discover new ports.  And many of them either cannot take the mega ships or, given the environmental issue, will not allow ships with a huge footprint to sail to those destination.  The Norwegian Fjords are the perfect example.  Also, as crusing interest is increasing every year, there are areas where the demand will increase but not enough to justify the use of a mega ship.  The best example is South America andAntartica.  There is currently no market for a 4000 passenger ship.  And, I don't think you can sail a mega ship in the Chilian Fjords

NCL is currently sailing the  Star in that area.  And it was almost full.  A Leonardo ship would be perfect to increase the offer from 2200 cabins to 3200.  Same situation with the Seward to Vancouver route.  Currently they have either the Sun or the Jewel doing that route.  2 old ships with roughly 2000 passengers.  A Leonardo ship would be perfect.  And some other routes in Asia would also fit that patern.  Mega ships are there to stay.  They will sail the currrent routes where the volume is huge.  Carribeans, Panama Canal, the east coast of Alaska, and some routes in Europe between Southampton, Barcelona Rome and Athens. I think NCL has enough mega ships to be able to pull off thier share of that market.  For the rest of the world, medium size ships will be better.

3. For sure that there are lots of people that don't want to cruise on a 5000 passenger ship.  My personnal experience is that once you are on the ship, they are so big that you don't really notice the number of passengers.  But the issues I have is first, for the embarkation process.  To process 5000 passengers you need huge terminal.  If you watched the 3rd episode of Embark, this is what the new terminal at Port Miami is all about.  But there are no 20 of those terminals. Second, my bigest issue is the port of calls.  I have experiences long line-ups as everyone wants to disembark to go on excursion.  And, late afternoon, when everybody commes back to the ship, they have a maximum of 2 gang ways for people to board the ship.  I have waited 75 minutes in line under the rain to board the Getaway in Rome. I was not happy. You don't have that problem with smaller ships.

4. It is a given that they will try to find ways to increase revenue. But they are already sailing smaller ships between 2000 and 2400 passengers.  The cost of a new ship is financed over a 20 year period.  So I don't see it as an issue.  They have to remain competitive against the other cruise lines.  The worst nightmare for cruise lines is the passengers that are booking the cheapest cabins and don't spend a penny on the ship. They only use the complimentary facilites. And they make their money with the optional stuff.  The specialty restaurants, Starbuck coffee, the duty free shops, the spa, Ice cream parlor and others.  I think the Prima will try to mitigate that.  The food hall will have come complimentary stuff for morning and lunch but a la carte for dinner.  In the future, I would not be surprised to see a reduction of the complimentary offer. And probably a reduction of the number of inside cabins and an increase of the price of those cabins.

5. You are right but not only because of the pandemic situation.  I think that the average cruiser has enough of tiny staterooms, bathroom where you are seated on the toilet to shower or you have to be under 100 pounds to be able to walk between the bed and the wall.  Same situation with the outdoor space. We all have been in the situation that we wanted to watch something outboard and ending to be cramped among 2000 other heads that wanted to see the same thing.  I bet that many people that never cruised with NCL, once they see the Prima and her following siblings, they will want at least to give it a try.  And it will take a decade for the other lines to plan and take delivery of similar ships.  They are not aiming to the Celibrity clients. At least, not for now.  There are still people that hate freestyle and want to have formal nights and the like.  But they mainly want to hit RC, HAL and Princess. NCL is already too expensive for many Carnival cruisers.  And I wouldn't be surprised if they succeed.  The Prima pictures are all over the internet, including Facebook and Instagram.  We hear only  WOWs and HOs.  If the Prima meets the expectations, Frank Del Rio will be considered as a genious.  There will be stuff what we will not like on the Prima.  And it will be probably too late to fix them on the Leonardo 2.  But with the Leonardo 3 to 6, I think we will be in awe.

Agree with all these points.  Also note Disney Cruise Line (which has a special targeted market) is also keeping with the same-ish size for their next batch of new ships. It really seems now like Royal is the only one trying to beat their own record for biggest ship with each new iteration. 
 

 

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Sadly the October 2023 cruises for prima are still missing. There should be a Baltic cruise before the ta. 
 

i think we should see something from leo2 shortly. ( ship building, nothing from ncl )
 

my seaview cruise is over and I liked the seaview very much. Excited if ncl can top that, at the Moment I’m not sure. 

Edited by Steff79
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Let's not kid ourselves - at 142,000 GRT the PRIMA is NOT a small ship.  She is bigger than the Newest Princess Ships Sky/Enchanted/Discovery, bigger then EDGE/APEX/Beyond from Celebrity, and larger than all Carnival Ships but the newest Mardi Gras.  Heck, she's DOUBLE the size of the Sky/Sun and nearly 50,000 tonnes larger than the Jewel class ships.

Edited by AtlantaCruiser72
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I wonder if there's a similarity with the bigger is not better with cruise ships as there is with the exit of the A380, as the big airport hub model failed in the recent years and air lines went for the fuel efficient B787 and A350's for direct point to point travel. More and often flights offering greater flexibility versus the less and larger.

 

Maybe Royal is the only line who can afford a few mastodons with their mixed fleet, the game of big numbers. Surely a line with just mega-mega ships could not be viable in my eyes.

 

Therefore NCL might be making a good move with more but smaller ships. The one cliche about cruising is that it are packed floating tower blocks, with mediocre food according to non-cruisers. That has been around and was around when the Leonardo class was on the table of the board and the drawing board a few years ago.

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2 minutes ago, AtlantaCruiser72 said:

Let's not kid ourselves - at 142,000 GRT the PRIMA is NOT a small ship.  She is bigger than the Newest Princess Ships Sky/Enchanted/Discovery, bigger then EDGE/APEX/Beyond from Celebrity, and larger than all Carnival Ships but the newest Mardi Gras.  Heck, she's DOUBLE the size of the Sky/Sun and nearly 50,000 tonnes larger than the Jewel class ships.

 

True. Good reality check heh! :classic_biggrin:

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16 hours ago, FreestyleNovice said:

I wonder if there's a similarity with the bigger is not better with cruise ships as there is with the exit of the A380, as the big airport hub model failed in the recent years and air lines went for the fuel efficient B787 and A350's for direct point to point travel. More and often flights offering greater flexibility versus the less and larger.

 

Maybe Royal is the only line who can afford a few mastodons with their mixed fleet, the game of big numbers. Surely a line with just mega-mega ships could not be viable in my eyes.

 

Therefore NCL might be making a good move with more but smaller ships. The one cliche about cruising is that it are packed floating tower blocks, with mediocre food according to non-cruisers. That has been around and was around when the Leonardo class was on the table of the board and the drawing board a few years ago.

Like with aircraft, there must be additional costs each time you build a bigger ship beyond just the extra materials.  For example, a new or upgraded engine (or azipod, or desalination system...) might need to be designed, and costs will be passed along to you.

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1 hour ago, Karaboudjan said:

Like with aircraft, there must be additional costs each time you build a bigger ship beyond just the extra materials.  For example, a new or upgraded engine (or azipod, or desalination system...) might need to be designed, and costs will be passed along to you.

The Leonardo ships are part of the 'Project Mille' design from the shipyard, Fincanteri.  It's a base design that the cruise lines buy and then customize.  The shipyard/builder has the design set out for various sizes of ships, based on the article below, it seems Leonardo is the largest of those.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-magazine/feature-magazine-articles/9453-summer-2013-technical-project-mille.html

 

With a class of ships like RCI's Oasis-class, those might have been clean-sheet designs in coordination between the yard and the line and so the entire design cost would be shouldered by the cruise line (why do you think RCI is putting the final touches on their FIFTH Oasis-class ship?!)...

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3 minutes ago, hallux said:

The shipyard/builder has the design set out for various sizes of ships, based on the article below, it seems Leonardo is the largest of those.

 

MSC Seashore/Seascape (Seaside EVO) is also based on Project Mille and is larger (170KGT) than Prima. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Karaboudjan said:

Like with aircraft, there must be additional costs each time you build a bigger ship beyond just the extra materials.  For example, a new or upgraded engine (or azipod, or desalination system...) might need to be designed, and costs will be passed along to you.

I presume that  if a ship has 500 additional cabins (1000 to 1200 additional passengers) the extra revenue for those cabins would compensate for the extra building cost.  

My opinion is what I think RC is wrong with their futur vision based on extra-ultra mega ships is those ships will be restricted to a very small number of itiniraries.  If they want to concentrate their market to both the east and west coast of USA, eastern Alaska and the mediteranen ports, it is a big risk.  They are far to be alone on that market.  Even Alaska, several ports are tendered.  To bring 5000 passengers ashore on tender boats is not easy.  People don't want to waste 3 hours in a port just waiting the tenders,  

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According to the article listed above, the Mille class ships have no top pool.  So does that mean that the two infinity pools and the Haven pool are the ONLY pools on the ship? If so...man alive but that's not gonna be great.  Those pools are pretty, but kinda tiny.  I was hoping there would be at least one other main pool area...

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6 minutes ago, BenCoudon said:

My opinion is what I think RC is wrong with their futur vision based on extra-ultra mega ships is those ships will be restricted to a very small number of itiniraries.  If they want to concentrate their market to both the east and west coast of USA, eastern Alaska and the mediteranen ports, it is a big risk.

 

Royal has their Oasis Class but also has the Icon Class ("only" 200KGT) coming. The current Quantum Class at just under 170KGT is comparable to the BA/BA Plus classes of NCL in terms of size and age. 

 

There are rumors/info out there that suggest that the size of the last 2 Leonardo ships will be slightly larger than Prima. 

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4 minutes ago, kayjaypea42 said:

According to the article listed above, the Mille class ships have no top pool.  So does that mean that the two infinity pools and the Haven pool are the ONLY pools on the ship? If so...man alive but that's not gonna be great.  Those pools are pretty, but kinda tiny.  I was hoping there would be at least one other main pool area...

 

Looking at Seaside/Seaview there is an outdoor pool on deck 16, an indoor/retractable roof pool on deck 18 (there is no deck 17), the water park with kiddie pool on deck 18 as well as an outdoor pool in the Yacht Club on deck 19. There is also an adult pool on deck 7 and the Spa pool on deck 8.

 

There is no reason for NCL to not have additional pools other than the infinity pools that we have seen. 

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2 minutes ago, BenCoudon said:

https://www.cruisemapper.com/ports/civitavecchia-port-81?tab=schedule&month=2021-08#schedule

 

Click on the blue tab and you will be able to select every month schedule up to December 2023

Oh ok, this is not like the other port authorities' schedules. It takes info from only announced itineraries to the public by the companies. The other are placeholders for unannounced itineraries.

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1 hour ago, BenCoudon said:

To bring 5000 passengers ashore on tender boats is not easy

I don't think any of the Oasis-class ships can tender.  The Oasis and Allure for sure can't - I found a CC post indicating that for certain and I found an article from 2019 where the RCI CEO said they would never tender an Oasis-class ship (https://www.caymancompass.com/2019/11/13/royal-caribbean-oasis-class-will-not-tender/).  Those ships were unable to call at Royal's private island until the pier was built for that very reason.  I don't think those ships even have tendering platforms built in.

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1 hour ago, Two Wheels Only said:

 

MSC Seashore/Seascape (Seaside EVO) is also based on Project Mille and is larger (170KGT) than Prima. 

 

 

Thanks, I was basing my post on the article that said it supported up to 150KGT and 4,000 passengers, and I thought Prima was at the 150KGT size...

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24 minutes ago, hallux said:

I don't think any of the Oasis-class ships can tender.  The Oasis and Allure for sure can't - I found a CC post indicating that for certain and I found an article from 2019 where the RCI CEO said they would never tender an Oasis-class ship (https://www.caymancompass.com/2019/11/13/royal-caribbean-oasis-class-will-not-tender/).  Those ships were unable to call at Royal's private island until the pier was built for that very reason.  I don't think those ships even have tendering platforms built in.

That was my point.  Mega ships cannot tender (or makes it very difficult for both the cruise line and passengers)  Just look at the list of tender ports (from the NCL Website).  Some on this list has both docking and tenders.  https://www.ncl.com/ca/en/about/accessible-cruising-tender-ports

Also, some ports may have docking facilities but cannot accept mega ships.  It would mean that RC would not be able to include those ports on thier itinerary. I see that as HUGE limitation.

And, as it looks like that only RC is continuing to go bigger and bigger, I doubt that local autorities will want to invest large amounts to accomodate those ships.

As an example,  Geiranger port in Norway.  They built a floating dock for ships to dock instead of tendering.  But on the September 13 cruise on the Prima, they indicate that Geiranger will be a tender port.  So may be the Prima is too big for that docking facility.

As I said in my first post,  mega ships will only be used for a limited number of ports with high density traffic.

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