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In 10 days what will it be


drvmywifecrzy
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Whether the CDC will lift the suspension, whether they will start cruising in November, etc.  Hopefully they will have news regarding the findings/recommendations of the Covid19 panel that they put together with RCCL.  We may even find that they are planning to start sailing in Europe from 1st November.

 

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I spoke with my NCL PCC last week and she told me that NCL will resume cruising in November.  Of course that is subject to change just like every other delay.  It wont be long cruises.  They want to start with short out to sea for a few days.  Not sure where but that is the plan she told me about.

I am not sure how this is going to work because everything about cruising is about crowds.  How can you run a profit with half full ships.  And the first covid outbreak on a cruise ship could bring the industry to collapse.  If you look at schools that opened, some closed days later or put so many in quarantine after Covid was spreading.  We also watch those crazy fights about masks in stores.  I would hate to see that madness on cruise ships.

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10 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

I spoke with my NCL PCC last week and she told me that NCL will resume cruising in November.  Of course that is subject to change just like every other delay.  It wont be long cruises.  They want to start with short out to sea for a few days.  Not sure where but that is the plan she told me about.

I am not sure how this is going to work because everything about cruising is about crowds.  How can you run a profit with half full ships.  And the first covid outbreak on a cruise ship could bring the industry to collapse.  If you look at schools that opened, some closed days later or put so many in quarantine after Covid was spreading.  We also watch those crazy fights about masks in stores.  I would hate to see that madness on cruise ships.

 

The school data is crazy cause they say it takes 3 to 14 days to show symptoms and after 1 day of school hundreds test positive.  Most likely these people were all ready positive before classes started.  In Cherokee county GA they are blowing up the issue that 3 schools have gone online meanwhile the other 35 schools are doing fine in the county.

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8 minutes ago, drvmywifecrzy said:

 

The school data is crazy cause they say it takes 3 to 14 days to show symptoms and after 1 day of school hundreds test positive.  

Showing symptoms is different than testing positive.  I don't recall seeing anywhere that it takes 3-14 days post exposure to test positive.  I may be wrong though.

 

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20 minutes ago, david_sobe said:

They want to start with short out to sea for a few days.  Not sure where but that is the plan she told me about.

My guess is Europe where they seem to have this thing under control and more importantly where people are generally much better behaved about this than they are in the US.  

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3 hours ago, david_sobe said:

I spoke with my NCL PCC last week and she told me that NCL will resume cruising in November.  Of course that is subject to change just like every other delay.  It wont be long cruises.  They want to start with short out to sea for a few days.  Not sure where but that is the plan she told me about.

I am not sure how this is going to work because everything about cruising is about crowds.  How can you run a profit with half full ships.  And the first covid outbreak on a cruise ship could bring the industry to collapse.  If you look at schools that opened, some closed days later or put so many in quarantine after Covid was spreading.  We also watch those crazy fights about masks in stores.  I would hate to see that madness on cruise ships.

Oh yes when I spoke with my PCC back in July he assured me my cruise in Oct was going to sail, truth is the call center reps and the PCC don't have a clue, like us they find out when NCL makes an announcement so I wouldn't put too much stock in it.

 

We can't go to Europe, Florida needs to get a handle on the virus before the ports will open and NY is anyone's guess when that port will open. Canada border still closed, some Caribbean Islands not taking cruise ships, it's already late August, at this point until an announcement just a guessing game

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4 hours ago, david_sobe said:

I spoke with my NCL PCC last week and she told me that NCL will resume cruising in November.  Of course that is subject to change just like every other delay.  It wont be long cruises.  They want to start with short out to sea for a few days.  Not sure where but that is the plan she told me about.

I am not sure how this is going to work because everything about cruising is about crowds.  How can you run a profit with half full ships.  And the first covid outbreak on a cruise ship could bring the industry to collapse.  If you look at schools that opened, some closed days later or put so many in quarantine after Covid was spreading.  We also watch those crazy fights about masks in stores.  I would hate to see that madness on cruise ships.

By way of an anecdote, when my wife and I were on our last cruise (December 2019), there was a minor "incident" when leaving the gangway in which a passenger refused to remove his baseball cap when asked to do so by a crewmember. You're familiar with the process of handing them your cruise card and they scan it as you leave? So this guy made a big deal out of it and kept refusing. The crewmember/security guard stood his ground, and after several requests (accompanied by an increasing number of impatient fellow passengers telling him to do so), the man complied. My point is that unlike schools and stores, cruise ships have the ability to stop you from getting on or off if you don't play by the rules. It's only going to take a few of these uncomfortable encounters before people wise up and realize that you either follow the rules, or you don't sail. Period.

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There’s nobody here that can predict the future.   And. the 10 day claim is speculative.     Of course they are ONLY going to start with 3/4 day cruises and run them for weeks.   They want people on and off ships before major outbreaks.   I’m currently on a 20 day cruise end of Nov. that people naively think may sail.  Absolutely not.    

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7 hours ago, drvmywifecrzy said:

So in 10 days NCL makes another announcement.  What will it be?

Full steam ahead. Restart of cruises. Like any business from your local deli to barber to dime store, every business is looking to reopen, safely. 

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7 hours ago, david_sobe said:

How can you run a profit with half full ships.

I think they'd rather just start having cruising going as soon as they can even if they are just breaking even. As long as it's done safely with no or minimum covid cases. I think I read somewhere that about 30-40ish % capacity would be around break even for the cruise lines. I think as long as the public sees that cruise ships are sailing there will be more people willing to take any FCC or deciding to cancel future cruises before final payment because they don't believe they will actually sail.

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1 hour ago, pmatawan said:

I think we will have a clearer picture of which ships will begin sailing on 11/1/20 and which ships will have tentative later starting dates. I don't think NCL can start up the whole fleet at one time.

Of course they are NOT going to start the whole fleet.    It will be  only 1/2 ships and then they will have to sail for weeks,  with adjustments and data obtained.    

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I do not expect that the first cruises will be anywhere near capacity, even with the reductions being mentioned in other threads (50%).  Walt Disney World announced last week that they are reducing their operating hours due to attendance being well below their reduced operating capacities, resulting in big losses in all parks.  And Universal Orlando just announced that they are closing two of their seven resort hotels starting tomorrow for the same reason.  Not only is there still a large percentage of people who are too worried to put themselves into any possible crowds, but there are still millions unemployed who simply do not have the resources to travel right now.

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8 hours ago, PATRLR said:

My guess is Europe where they seem to have this thing under control and more importantly where people are generally much better behaved about this than they are in the US.  

I have 1st November booked from Barcelona and it's just a 5 hour drive from our house so we're good to go if they are . Honestly though I don't know that Barcelona port will have reopened by then.

 

 

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I think a lot of you are on the right track.  IF (its a big if) they start back in November, it will be a few select ships, doing really short (think 3 day/4 day) max cruises.  I think it has nothing to do with profit, it has much more to do with understanding HOW it will work so they can ready everything they need to allow their fleet to sail when the time comes.  Of course, they might just push another month as well, but I think we are close to having a ship (maybe 3) out there somewhere.

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