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I hope they are wrong in their forecast


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It's anyone's guess at this point.  I have a cruise booked in January, but I am prepared to roll that over to my cruise booked in April.  The only good thing about this entire year is the money I am making trading travel stocks.  Other than that, this year really sucks and I am ready for 2021.  I am still hoping for the best and that it happens sooner rather than later.

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The Tampa Bay Port might have well let a gypsy with a gold capped tooth make their guess on when they will have boats leaving the port. At the moment it is November 1st, some 70 days from now. Not next spring, summer, or the Easter Bunny's birthday. 

The important number in my mind is cases per 100,000 population. Many Florida counties have lowered that to around 100/100000. That is 0.1%.  They can open the schools at that point and keep them open if it is maintained for a couple of weeks. On that basis we should go sailing. If rates continue to fall, we should be at 0.05% or less by boarding time. Follow the hygiene rules and you'll be fine. 

 

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If MSC is able to operate successfully for the next two months in the Mediterranean, then the next cruise out of Tampa will be this fall, when the CDC revises it's guidelines, the no sail orders are revised, and the U.S. national news drops it's focus on covid-19 shortly after November 3.   I'd worry about booking the November 2 Carnival Paradise, but perhaps the November 7 Carnival Paradise will sail.  I plan to be on the first ship sailing out of Tampa, whenever it is.  Again, if MSC can do it, then other cruise lines will follow.  The key is routine handling of the virus when it is discovered on the ship. 

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I am hopefully they will rollout a vaccine and instant salvia test by early next year. I hope these will allow a return to cruising. We have one book for June of 21 and 22. I hope these will sail. But I recognize the cruise industry may never look the same so even the ships we have book not not be around next year if the cruise lines are bankrupt. 

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3 hours ago, Purvis1231 said:

I am hopefully they will rollout a vaccine and instant salvia test by early next year. I hope these will allow a return to cruising. We have one book for June of 21 and 22. I hope these will sail. But I recognize the cruise industry may never look the same so even the ships we have book not not be around next year if the cruise lines are bankrupt. 


Bankruptcy does not necessarily mean ships in the current fleet will no longer be around. If it gets to the point that Carnival, or any cruise line, has to declare bankruptcy, the biggest losers will be stockholders who will likely have worthless stock and passengers who will likely lose all money paid to the cruise line including cruise fares, pre-paid excursions, pre-paid Cheers, etc. 

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8 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


Bankruptcy does not necessarily mean ships in the current fleet will no longer be around. If it gets to the point that Carnival, or any cruise line, has to declare bankruptcy, the biggest losers will be stockholders who will likely have worthless stock and passengers who will likely lose all money paid to the cruise line including cruise fares, pre-paid excursions, pre-paid Cheers, etc. 

 

I for one would never book a cruise on a line that has filed for bankruptcy.  Maybe if the cruise was within a month but not any longer than that.  

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1 hour ago, RWolver672 said:

 

I for one would never book a cruise on a line that has filed for bankruptcy.  Maybe if the cruise was within a month but not any longer than that.  

Those pax with the FCC  right now are without a choice if bankruptcy/reorganization happens. You are correct if referring to those still risking new bookings with the uncertainty still there.

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12 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:


Bankruptcy does not necessarily mean ships in the current fleet will no longer be around. If it gets to the point that Carnival, or any cruise line, has to declare bankruptcy, the biggest losers will be stockholders who will likely have worthless stock and passengers who will likely lose all money paid to the cruise line including cruise fares, pre-paid excursions, pre-paid Cheers, etc. 

I realize that Bankruptcy does not mean the ships won't be sailing but if there is a bankruptcy there will be major reorganization and who knows what ships will be sailing from what port. In general, I do not think there will be enough business to support all the ships that have been sailing with the new builds that are near completion.  The travel insurance I have does cover against provider insolvency so I am protected no matter what happens. ( Of course I know my stock could be worthless in the future.) I am sure that most of us who enjoy cruising also hope that some from of normalcy will return to the cruise industry.  

Edited by Purvis1231
typo
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23 hours ago, vintagegarage said:

If MSC is able to operate successfully for the next two months in the Mediterranean, then the next cruise out of Tampa will be this fall, when the CDC revises it's guidelines, the no sail orders are revised, and the U.S. national news drops it's focus on covid-19 shortly after November 3.   I'd worry about booking the November 2 Carnival Paradise, but perhaps the November 7 Carnival Paradise will sail.  I plan to be on the first ship sailing out of Tampa, whenever it is.  Again, if MSC can do it, then other cruise lines will follow.  The key is routine handling of the virus when it is discovered on the ship. 

 

Good luck with that. There is a zero percent chance cruises will be sailing out of Tampa in November.

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I think that once the cruise industry gets the green light from the CDC, some cruise lines will make a comeback quicker than others. I have a feeling that MSC will be leading the pack. With deep pockets in their cargo division which has not been adversely affected during the pandemic, and after seeing what they are doing in the Mediterranean, I think that they will be the best positioned to resume cruising in North America. Seems like their first sailing on the MSC Grandiosa last week was a resounding success, and if they can keep it up, hopefully that will provide the boost necessary to lift the no-sail order here in the USA. 

 

MSC currently has some insanely cheap fares out of Port Canaveral and Miami for 2021, as well as a very generous cancellation policy. Some cruises are starting at $59 for an inside cabin for a 3/4 night cruise aboard MSC Seaside going to their new private island, Ocean Cay, and you can cancel up to 48 hours before sailing. In addition, they are offering their standard 5% discount for Voyagers Club members, plus an additional 5% promotional discount, double points, onboard credit,  reduced deposit, and kids sail free.

 

At those prices, and with the flexibility to cancel until the last minute, I went ahead and placed a deposit ($100 per cabin) on back to back cruises. Total cost for 7 nights in a balcony stateroom is $165pp plus $98 tax. Preparing myself mentally in case it doesn't happen, but will be thrilled if it does happen! 

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56 minutes ago, Tapi said:

I think that once the cruise industry gets the green light from the CDC, some cruise lines will make a comeback quicker than others. I have a feeling that MSC will be leading the pack. With deep pockets in their cargo division which has not been adversely affected during the pandemic, and after seeing what they are doing in the Mediterranean, I think that they will be the best positioned to resume cruising in North America. Seems like their first sailing on the MSC Grandiosa last week was a resounding success, and if they can keep it up, hopefully that will provide the boost necessary to lift the no-sail order here in the USA. 

 

MSC currently has some insanely cheap fares out of Port Canaveral and Miami for 2021, as well as a very generous cancellation policy. Some cruises are starting at $59 for an inside cabin for a 3/4 night cruise aboard MSC Seaside going to their new private island, Ocean Cay, and you can cancel up to 48 hours before sailing. In addition, they are offering their standard 5% discount for Voyagers Club members, plus an additional 5% promotional discount, double points, onboard credit,  reduced deposit, and kids sail free.

 

At those prices, and with the flexibility to cancel until the last minute, I went ahead and placed a deposit ($100 per cabin) on back to back cruises. Total cost for 7 nights in a balcony stateroom is $165pp plus $98 tax. Preparing myself mentally in case it doesn't happen, but will be thrilled if it does happen! 

 

Wow, great fare. I hope for you sake that it goes too, but who knows at this point. Given the fact that covid protections are apparently costing MSC $600,000 per cruise, hard to imagine them breaking even at such prices. 

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1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

Given the fact that covid protections are apparently costing MSC $600,000 per cruise, hard to imagine them breaking even at such prices. 

Very true. I’m guessing that some cruise lines will initially offer ridiculously fares, like some airlines have been doing, offering fares as low as $11, just to get people back on the ships and regain confidence in the industry. 


So the initial focus probably won’t be to generate revenue, but just to get people back onboard. And as the recovery progresses and more people feel it’s safe to sail again, we will then see prices gradually go up. 

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31 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Anyone know how @Captain Carnival is taking the news? If I remember correctly, he previously oversaw the boarding process at the port.

Hello -

 

I haven’t logged on here in a very long time however my name was mentioned here saying I said something on a political level.

 

Well I don’t know how that could be but nevertheless I can be found daily on “YOUR Carnival Captain”  (FB).

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7 hours ago, Purvis1231 said:

It will take months to get the ship ready to sail so 2020 cruises are unlikely. 

This is what I think most are forgetting. It is not as if the ships can just pull out of port the moment the "no sail" order is lifted. They have to get their staff back. How long will that take?

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12 hours ago, liulady said:

This is what I think most are forgetting. It is not as if the ships can just pull out of port the moment the "no sail" order is lifted. They have to get their staff back. How long will that take?

 

Not to mention restocking the ships.  It's not like they can pull into a Publix and refill their cupboards.  Those supplies have to be ordered ahead of time.  I'm pretty sure most of those warehouses that have perishable items are sitting empty right now.

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21 hours ago, Captain Carnival said:

Hello -

 

I haven’t logged on here in a very long time however my name was mentioned here saying I said something on a political level.

 

Well I don’t know how that could be but nevertheless I can be found daily on “YOUR Carnival Captain”  (FB).

Thanks Captain. 

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4 hours ago, RWolver672 said:

 

Not to mention restocking the ships.  It's not like they can pull into a Publix and refill their cupboards.  Those supplies have to be ordered ahead of time.  I'm pretty sure most of those warehouses that have perishable items are sitting empty right now.

Ehh, Sysco will get the items there pretty quickly. I wouldn't have much concern over F&B.

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Keep in mind, while Tampa is a great place, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Port Canaveral-ish are the primary Florida cruise ports.

 

So it's expected that the cruise lines will ramp up there first, then move to the regional markets.

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5 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Keep in mind, while Tampa is a great place, Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and Port Canaveral-ish are the primary Florida cruise ports.

 

So it's expected that the cruise lines will ramp up there first, then move to the regional markets.

They also have the little bridge issue to deal with as well. Maybe not a problem right now but in a few years, they'll need to adapt if they want to remain competitive. 

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