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US cruising in early January (speculation)


bigrednole
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With the CDC announcement that millions of vaccines will be ready at the end of October or early November, it only means that the government will have to open up the country. They cannot be two-faced about the vaccine. They can't say the emergency workers, people in nursing homes, and other high risk people are required to take it then not open the country once enough doses are available for the general population. At $50-$60 a pop for a vaccine the pharmaceutical didn't pay a penny for, they surely can ramp up production at all manufacturing plants in the matter of weeks to have 500M doses ready in a month. The CDC will be pushed to open ports with the requirement to sail is having the vaccine. It will be as simple as that. Without the vaccine, you won't be able to board a ship or leave the country. 

 

Doing the simple math:

$1.5B in taxpayer money to develop (no cost to the pharma)

500M doses @ $60 each ($30B in revenue)

 

Even if they paid $10B to the manufacturers to get 500M doses, the pharma still makes $20B profit.

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If a vaccine is approved by November, then it has to be manufactured/produced.  Then  distribution, with the initial batches going to front line health care workers, essential workers then the elderly, children.  Availability and widespread inoculation to the general public is likely months after that.  I can just imagine huge line ups for the vaccine when it's announced locally where it's available.  It will be a logistic nightmare

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Just now, M&A said:

If a vaccine is approved by November, then it has to be manufactured/produced.  Then  distribution, with the initial batches going to front line health care workers, essential workers then the elderly, children.  Availability and widespread inoculation to the general public is likely months after that.  I can just imagine huge line ups for the vaccine when it's announced locally where it's available.  It will be a logistic nightmare

That is already being started and planned. As paraphrased by the CDC, millions of vaccines will be available to the high risk people and emergency worked by the end of October or early November. It doesn't take insane amounts of time to ramp up something that is in such demand. Seriously, we are talking about $20-$50B in revenue for a product that cost nothing to develop. The pharma that is developing will have no shortage of manufacturing lines to use. They will be more than willing to pay 20-40% of the revenue to get those lines going. Its no loss to them. Everything is 100% profit.

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11 minutes ago, M&A said:

If a vaccine is approved by November, then it has to be manufactured/produced.  Then  distribution, with the initial batches going to front line health care workers, essential workers then the elderly, children.  Availability and widespread inoculation to the general public is likely months after that.  I can just imagine huge line ups for the vaccine when it's announced locally where it's available.  It will be a logistic nightmare

 

Not to mention that if it's approved by November, it's most likely going to be done under an EUA without Phase III trials.  I'm not  sure you're going to get a huge portion of the population that's going to be willing to get a vaccine under those circumstances.  And you're right about the manufacturing and production; that may prove to be another big issue.

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1 hour ago, bigrednole said:

With the CDC announcement that millions of vaccines will be ready at the end of October or early November, it only means that the government will have to open up the country. They cannot be two-faced about the vaccine. They can't say the emergency workers, people in nursing homes, and other high risk people are required to take it then not open the country once enough doses are available for the general population. At $50-$60 a pop for a vaccine the pharmaceutical didn't pay a penny for, they surely can ramp up production at all manufacturing plants in the matter of weeks to have 500M doses ready in a month. The CDC will be pushed to open ports with the requirement to sail is having the vaccine. It will be as simple as that. Without the vaccine, you won't be able to board a ship or leave the country. 

 

Doing the simple math:

$1.5B in taxpayer money to develop (no cost to the pharma)

500M doses @ $60 each ($30B in revenue)

 

Even if they paid $10B to the manufacturers to get 500M doses, the pharma still makes $20B profit.

Dream on.

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3 minutes ago, shutterbug63 said:

 

Not to mention that if it's approved by November, it's most likely going to be done under an EUA without Phase III trials.  I'm not  sure you're going to get a huge portion of the population that's going to be willing to get a vaccine under those circumstances.  And you're right about the manufacturing and production; that may prove to be another big issue.

It's not whether they will get a huge portion of the population to agree to take it. The pharma is already 100% protected from any liability in the US for the life of the vaccine. What will be the issue is a Federal ban on doing anything without taking it. They can easily shut you out of everything if you are not vaccinated. No school, no access to a public facility like grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Your kids won't be able to attend school without it. Elderly cannot be in a nursing home without it. Hospitals and doctors can ban from entering and make your only option a non-vaccination facility. 

 

So, if the US government says you will not have access to almost anything without an ID card showing you are vaccinated, what do you think will happen?

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2 hours ago, bigrednole said:

The CDC will be pushed to open ports with the requirement to sail is having the vaccine. It will be as simple as that. Without the vaccine, you won't be able to board a ship or leave the country. 


I agree with the sentiment of your comment. Anti-vaxers will just have to wait until the standard has changed. 
 

However, we all know it won’t be the first thing to happen when the vaccine becomes available. The Industry will still have to come up with guidelines for the CDC before they can sail. IMO it will not discard mask use on board, less guests, and spacial separation for the immediate return of sailing. Not until enough of the population has had the vaccine or natural herd immunity or Covid has disappeared do I see masks on board and other Covid standards disappearing. 

 

If the vaccine is available in November I will seriously contemplate making my final payment for my March.  It will take some time for the general public to have access to it. I will wait to see how thing roll out before it make my final in mid-December. 

Edited by A&L_Ont
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I love the way so many Americans talk as if their country is the only one on earth

 

If there is a vaccine, it will be shared internationally, and big pharma will not have the power some may presume

 

That is of course, if the first vaccine is produced in the US - Oxford University are allegedly currently competing with a German pharmaceutical company to win the race to the first vaccine

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2 minutes ago, compman9 said:

I love the way so many Americans talk as if their country is the only one on earth

 

If there is a vaccine, it will be shared internationally, and big pharma will not have the power some may presume

 

That is of course, if the first vaccine is produced in the US - Oxford University are allegedly currently competing with a German pharmaceutical company to win the race to the first vaccine

The US is doing it alone. 

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5 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I heard a survey said only about 30% of people want to get the vaccine when it comes out. 

 

Also just heard people dont want to fly. I've read that here, same will apply to cruises. You are allowed to fly, people just dont all want to get on a plane yet.

It's probably even lower as more people educate themselves. 

 

As for flying we'll have to wait until October 1 when the Care Act (bailout) is set to end. Airlines can start laying off if necessary....some are saying around 80k layoffs in the Airline industry if the Care Act isn't extended. 

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7 minutes ago, compman9 said:

I love the way so many Americans talk as if their country is the only one on earth

 

If there is a vaccine, it will be shared internationally, and big pharma will not have the power some may presume

 

That is of course, if the first vaccine is produced in the US - Oxford University are allegedly currently competing with a German pharmaceutical company to win the race to the first vaccine

I think that is slightly unfair. For the most part we are talking about cruising starting back up again from US ports, so naturally that will impact Americans more than  anyone else.

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6 minutes ago, compman9 said:

I love the way so many Americans talk as if their country is the only one on earth

I was speaking from the CDC perspective alone which is US. Yes, other countries will have the same opportunities of a vaccine. However, a company given $1.5B by the US taxpayers to develop it, it is in Phase III trials for a month already (a friend was one of the first in Phase III to get it), and results are extremely positive. So yes, if this company produces a vaccine, it will be a US vaccine first since the taxpayers paid for it.  I am fairly certain that the UK did not pay this company $1.5B for vaccine research and development. And to correct myself, they received $1B in aid and $1.5B in supply. 

 

Will they manufacture for other countries? Of course they will. The country will need to provide pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities to do it. As more countries bring lines live, the more vaccines that will be available. 

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5 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Airlines can start laying off if necessary....some are saying around 80k layoffs in the Airline industry if the Care Act isn't extended. 

Already started. I know several personally in my area whose last day is Oct. 1. Regardless of any deals the US give to help them. Until businesses and people vacation more, the airline industry is going to be very low. Not as low as just after 9/11, but it is taking a very big hit.

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3 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

I was speaking from the CDC perspective alone which is US. Yes, other countries will have the same opportunities of a vaccine. However, a company given $1.5B by the US taxpayers to develop it, it is in Phase III trials for a month already (a friend was one of the first in Phase III to get it), and results are extremely positive. So yes, if this company produces a vaccine, it will be a US vaccine first since the taxpayers paid for it.  I am fairly certain that the UK did not pay this company $1.5B for vaccine research and development. And to correct myself, they received $1B in aid and $1.5B in supply. 

 

Will they manufacture for other countries? Of course they will. The country will need to provide pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities to do it. As more countries bring lines live, the more vaccines that will be available. 

The US is doing it alone. 

 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-says-it-won-t-join-global-effort-to-find-covid-19-vaccine-1.5088352

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53 minutes ago, bigrednole said:

It's not whether they will get a huge portion of the population to agree to take it. The pharma is already 100% protected from any liability in the US for the life of the vaccine. What will be the issue is a Federal ban on doing anything without taking it. They can easily shut you out of everything if you are not vaccinated. No school, no access to a public facility like grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Your kids won't be able to attend school without it. Elderly cannot be in a nursing home without it. Hospitals and doctors can ban from entering and make your only option a non-vaccination facility. 

 

So, if the US government says you will not have access to almost anything without an ID card showing you are vaccinated, what do you think will happen?

If you want access to living the way life used to be then get a vaccine - it's that simple. There are already vaccine requirements on many types of jobs and schools, why is should this be any different?

 

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1 minute ago, mek said:

If you want access to living the way life used to be then get a vaccine - it's that simple. There are already vaccine requirements on many types of jobs and schools, why is should this be any different?

 

Because the vaccine may not even be needed. Too late to go back now though, they have to keep up the charade.....

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4 minutes ago, mek said:

If you want access to living the way life used to be then get a vaccine - it's that simple. There are already vaccine requirements on many types of jobs and schools, why is should this be any different?

 

Because this one is being rushed in a manner unlike any other vaccine that I can recall with plenty of politics, money, and fear involved.

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1 minute ago, Mapleleafforever said:

Because the vaccine may not even be needed. Too late to go back now though, they have to keep up the charade.....

You just keep on believing that this this will magically disappear overnight because we have all developed herd immunity.  Right now the numbers don't support that at all.

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18 minutes ago, Mapleleafforever said:

The US is doing it alone. 

For right now trump withdrew from the WHO where they want vaccines shared. From what I understand the US hasn't agreed to sharing. 

 

I heard there are 8 vaccines in phase 3 worldwide, so there are other countries developing their own and at least one has said it might start allowing public access during phase 3. 

 

Just saying right now since we withdrew from WHO we are on our own technically.

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4 minutes ago, mek said:

You just keep on believing that this this will magically disappear overnight because we have all developed herd immunity.  Right now the numbers don't support that at all.

Ok, I'll just keep using logic and common sense. Gotta turn off the news.......

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11 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Because this one is being rushed in a manner unlike any other vaccine that I can recall with plenty of politics, money, and fear involved.

If it goes through phase 3 clinical trials then it has gone through all of the steps other vaccines have gone through, just in a shorter amount of time.

Personally I will take a vaccine now and worry about any long term side effects down the road - many believe there are long term side effect to covid, so which is worse - not taking a vaccine and continue living the way we are now or getting back to normal, saving lives and businesses?

Edited by mek
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