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52 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

The VAST VAST VAST majority of COVID deaths in NYS happened early in the pandemic when people were exposed before the lockdowns, treatments were unknown, and vulnerable populations were contracting it at much higher rates than less vulnerable demographics. In the downstate area, hospitals were overwhelmed which led to a high death rate, just like Spain and Italy in the early days. States that got hit later had more time to prepare, had the benefit of lessons learned from Europe and the Tri-State Area, and had time to protect their vulnerable populations.

 

Florida has vastly surpassed NYS in total cases, but has a lower death rate because the demographics of those infected and the timing of when the infections happened. Florida had 174 deaths yesterday. New York State had 9. New York hasn't had more than 100 deaths in a day since the first of July. Most days we are in the single digits and some days even have zero!

 

I am not disagreeing with you in any way, and BTW I love reading your posts, you have great perspective and a beautiful writing style. But I recall in the early days of COVID that many New Yorkers flocked to Florida when the outbreaks began (presumably in part due to the cold weather, as a number of them have vacation properties there) and suddenly the number of cases in FL mushroomed. I would not argue that that was an accident. Some of the growth in FL cases was due to lots of temporary "migration."

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4 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

You'd be surprised how many people where I live would contest that rather "obvious" observation.

 

I hear ya. I used to live in Northern Virginia also (fairly close to you), in Herndon. Definitely blue territory.

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11 minutes ago, Summerstravel said:

I have been wanting to visit AC but WV is on the naughty list. 

im sure it will be off soon,  AC is kinda dead but its better than staying home, and you can distance from others no problem. 

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10 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

You'd be surprised how many people where I live would contest that rather "obvious" observation.

i dont see a problem airing on the side of caution, my father is in texas and can barely go anywhere because the numbers are not good .  You will never please everyone but i think the dmv area handled it well. ppl want to rush things open but dont understand you have to do it in the right way,  the best i find is somewhere in the middle, not panic but not ignore it as a hoax either. 

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9 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

I am not disagreeing with you in any way, and BTW I love reading your posts, you have great perspective and a beautiful writing style. But I recall in the early days of COVID that many New Yorkers flocked to Florida when the outbreaks began (presumably in part due to the cold weather, as a number of them have vacation properties there) and suddenly the number of cases in FL mushroomed. I would not argue that that was an accident. Some of the growth in FL cases was due to lots of temporary "migration."

 

Oh absolutely. Just like most of the early cases in New York came from Europe and then spread. I think it is much more telling to see how cases and deaths have spread after much more information has become available to us (and the powers that be). Currently Florida and New York are armed with the exact same information about how the virus spreads and how to treat those who have it, yet in the past 30 days, these are the numbers:

 

image.png.d8267cd8e61b972d0c496ce1c507db74.png

image.png.a08f93a43928572edf3c734a45892a0d.png

 

Notice how the Florida chart tops out over 200 deaths per day and the NYS chart tops out around 15 deaths a day.

 

For those of you concerned about media manipulation, you can just ignore the media and examine the numbers for yourselves and draw your own conclusions. Critical thinking is an essential skill!

 

 

Edited by JamieLogical
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1 minute ago, seaman11 said:

i dont see a problem airing on the side of caution, my father is in texas and can barely go anywhere because the numbers are not good .  You will never please everyone but i think the dmv area handled it well. ppl want to rush things open but dont understand you have to do it in the right way,  the best i find is somewhere in the middle, not panic but not ignore it as a hoax either. 

SOME things were handled well here, many were not. I'm generally not in favor of second-guessing public health officials, because they're imperfect human beings like the rest of us. One thing I've come to understand about the DC area over the past 24 years I've lived here is a disconnected insularity. So many people here work for the government either directly or indirectly and thus are virtually guaranteed to be employed and doing well financially at any given time. Thus, they have little sympathy for people in other parts of the country who HAVE to go to work to make ends meet. The area around here is generally very supportive of the lockdowns for health reasons, but that's easy to say when you're gonna get a steady paycheck no matter what.

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7 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Oh absolutely. Just like most of the early cases in New York came from Europe and then spread. I think it is much more telling to see how cases and deaths have spread after much more information has become available to us (and the powers that be). Currently Florida and New York are armed with the exact same information about how the virus spreads and how to treat those who have it, yet in the past 30 days, these are the numbers:

 

image.png.d8267cd8e61b972d0c496ce1c507db74.png

image.png.a08f93a43928572edf3c734a45892a0d.png

 

Notice how The Florida chart tops out over 200 deaths per day and the NYS chart tops out around 15 deaths a day.

 

For those of you concerned about media manipulation, you can just ignore the media and examine the numbers for yourselves and draw your own conclusions. Critical thinking is an essential skill!

 

 

Covid was running thru NYC in early to Mid February and possibly as early as mid to late January. I remember distinctly while driving over the GW Bridge in early February on our way to go skiing in New Hampshire my wife getting texts from coworkers in the CDC people were testing positive who were from the Bronx and Yonkers. 

Edited by Laszlo
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6 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Oh absolutely. Just like most of the early cases in New York came from Europe and then spread. I think it is much more telling to see how cases and deaths have spread after much more information has become available to us (and the powers that be). Currently Florida and New York are armed with the exact same information about how the virus spreads and how to treat those who have it, yet in the past 30 days, these are the numbers:

 

image.png.d8267cd8e61b972d0c496ce1c507db74.png

image.png.a08f93a43928572edf3c734a45892a0d.png

 

Notice how the Florida chart tops out over 200 deaths per day and the NYS chart tops out around 15 deaths a day.

 

For those of you concerned about media manipulation, you can just ignore the media and examine the numbers for yourselves and draw your own conclusions. Critical thinking is an essential skill!

 

 

Thank you for the graphs. It's fascinating to see those consistent peaks and valleys. I wonder what accounts for that? I wish I could drill down and figure out what causes that. And you're right about critical thinking: from your lips to the electorate's ears!

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5 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

SOME things were handled well here, many were not. I'm generally not in favor of second-guessing public health officials, because they're imperfect human beings like the rest of us. One thing I've come to understand about the DC area over the past 24 years I've lived here is a disconnected insularity. So many people here work for the government either directly or indirectly and thus are virtually guaranteed to be employed and doing well financially at any given time. Thus, they have little sympathy for people in other parts of the country who HAVE to go to work to make ends meet. The area around here is generally very supportive of the lockdowns for health reasons, but that's easy to say when you're gonna get a steady paycheck no matter what.

imo what was failed was getting the ppl a 2nd stimulus. extra unemployment booster and such to get through this time.  other countries did that.   VA has been terrible even getting ppl fema money passed 2 months ago.   So had this country and states done that im sure you and others would not have had such a hard time.  ( my business is down 75% even open. ) How can i bring all my staff back fulltime? 

Edited by seaman11
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19 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

Thank you for the graphs. It's fascinating to see those consistent peaks and valleys. I wonder what accounts for that? I wish I could drill down and figure out what causes that. And you're right about critical thinking: from your lips to the electorate's ears!

 

It's weekend reporting. I see it on every single graph at every single level (county, state, country, world). New cases and deaths are consistently under-reported on weekends. Which is why on my own graphs that I keep (I love spreadsheets!), I always display the 7 day average as well and pay much more attention to that than the daily peaks and valleys.

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3 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

It's weekend reporting. I see it on every single graph at every single level (county, state, country, world). New cases and deaths are consistently under-reported on weekends. Which is why on my own graphs that I keep (I love spreadsheets!), I always display the 7 day average as well and pay much more attention to that than the daily peaks and valleys.

 

I'm very impressed that you keep your own covid spreadsheets! I make cruise price spreadsheets and my friends think I'm ridiculous. Bravo!

 

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Glad to see PA is not on the list. Coming up on Saturday morning to ride the Hudson bike trail

 

Off topic for a moment.

PA has had a lot more rain than NY. Fall foliage struggling. Don’t expect much. Too dry here. Weather Saturday will be perfect for the bike trail, Laszlo....ENJOY!!

 

Carry on. Thank you.

 

5 years ago my son and I were aboard Breakaway the 1st week of November. Didn’t make it to GSC of course. We made the best of it.

We had Encore booked this past July to Bermuda (our third time there)...oh well.

Miss the ocean, the ships, their crews and just a real vacation.

 

Stay safe!

 

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47 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm very impressed that you keep your own covid spreadsheets! I make cruise price spreadsheets and my friends think I'm ridiculous. Bravo!

 

 

Before COVID I kept spreadsheets tracking pricing and availability on all my upcoming cruises. I needed somewhere else to put all my spreadsheet energy once all my upcoming cruises were canceled, so I decided to keep COVID spreadsheets in the mean time. I track daily new cases and deaths at the World, US, New York State, and Monroe County (my home county) levels. It's definitely not nearly as fun as my cruise tracking spreadsheets. 😪

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51 minutes ago, meatball_nyc said:

 

Off topic for a moment.

PA has had a lot more rain than NY. Fall foliage struggling. Don’t expect much. Too dry here. Weather Saturday will be perfect for the bike trail, Laszlo....ENJOY!!

 

Carry on. Thank you.

 

5 years ago my son and I were aboard Breakaway the 1st week of November. Didn’t make it to GSC of course. We made the best of it.

We had Encore booked this past July to Bermuda (our third time there)...oh well.

Miss the ocean, the ships, their crews and just a real vacation.

 

Stay safe!

 

 

Thanks, just taking the ferry over from Paulus Hook, riding the path to the GW and back. Weather looks to be perfect

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I guess Norwegian does this when they are getting ready to cancel. So I booked a new cruise out of Miami on January 9th my birthday is January 7th.  It's actually the same itinerary just out of Miami and on the Encore. 

Happy Saturday everyone. 

 

Tracie

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@Summerstravel it's too bad about your next cruise. Good luck with your future and yes, this is not a good sign.  

 

I've cancelled my Apr. 21 TA on the Jade, just not sure I want to be going on a 26 day cruise without a vaccine.  Hopefully we'll all find a cruise that suits us and actually ends up sailing. 

 

Good luck, stay safe. 

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1 hour ago, All-ready2cruise said:

I've cancelled my Apr. 21 TA on the Jade, just not sure I want to be going on a 26 day cruise without a vaccine. 

 

Yeah, I agree. Heck, I don't even want to go on a 2-day cruise without a vaccine (btw, a 26 day TA cruise on the Jade sounded awesome but I don't blame you for cancelling).

 

Fingers crossed 🤞 that a safe & effective vaccine will be out and available to everybody by April of 2021.

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10 hours ago, All-ready2cruise said:

@Summerstravel it's too bad about your next cruise. Good luck with your future and yes, this is not a good sign.  

 

I've cancelled my Apr. 21 TA on the Jade, just not sure I want to be going on a 26 day cruise without a vaccine.  Hopefully we'll all find a cruise that suits us and actually ends up sailing. 

 

Good luck, stay safe. 

Thank you I appreciate your kind words. 

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8 hours ago, farmersfight said:

 

Yeah, I agree. Heck, I don't even want to go on a 2-day cruise without a vaccine (btw, a 26 day TA cruise on the Jade sounded awesome but I don't blame you for cancelling).

 

Fingers crossed 🤞 that a safe & effective vaccine will be out and available to everybody by April of 2021.

Yes a working vaccine is what we need not just for cruising but to help with our everyday lives as well. Staying safe and saving lives. 

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On 10/1/2020 at 3:30 PM, JamieLogical said:

 

It's weekend reporting. I see it on every single graph at every single level (county, state, country, world). New cases and deaths are consistently under-reported on weekends. Which is why on my own graphs that I keep (I love spreadsheets!), I always display the 7 day average as well and pay much more attention to that than the daily peaks and valleys.


So I'm not the only one who loves spreadsheets, and has COVID spreadsheets? Love it!!😃

I've also been tracking the number of new cases in age groups 0-24 in Florida, and there has been a definite increase since our governor ordered brick and mortar schools open.

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