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1 hour ago, Ashland said:

"Herd Immunity" do you understand just how many more people will have to die from Covid-19 before we reach that point ?

 

According to an article from the Brooking's Institute, over a million people in the US alone.

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9 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

According to an article from the Brooking's Institute, over a million people in the US alone.

Haven't seen this article, but I can't imagine we can't get there with the upcoming vaccines before over a million people in the US die.  Consider that we've had roughly 200,000 in more than 6 months (and it probably started even before that),  and that was before we learned the value of masks and social distancing (well, many of us did!), and before we learned better treatment methods.  So even with that rate of infection and death (which should be less going forward for reasons mentioned) it would mean the vaccines would not be widely distributed enough to cause herd immunity for close to 3 years from the start of the epidemic.  It may not happen as soon as I think it will, but I can't imagine it will be another 2 1/2 years or more.

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52 minutes ago, baldilocks said:

We are still wondering how the prior to boarding testing will be done. We are driving to the port with prior stops in FL. That will put us under pressure to find a COVID testing station within 5 days of departure....and how are we going to get the test results that Celebrity will accept when we are traveling? Sounds like another BOHICA moment.

You are overanalyzing.  CLIA made a proposal.  We have not heard anything from the CDC.  Who knows what the actual guidelines will be or when cruising to begin/vaccines available.

It is clear testing is becoming much easier to obtain.  We have walk up testing with results that day or the next in my metro area.

To find COVID testing sites I used a Google search and found several.  2 walk in. Most no referral.  Expect that to get easier as the months go by.

The startup guidelines suggest a B2B not initially allowed, but you could certainly be tested at the port along with the other boarding passengers.

Edited by Arizona Wildcat
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19 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

According to an article from the Brooking's Institute, over a million people in the US alone.

Cannot find the article you mention.  Guessing that the author is suggesting that achieving herd immunity similarly to Sweden without a vaccine would cost a million lives.  Makes sense to me.

A vaccine obviously moves us to herd immunity much faster and reduces the death total.

I expect after the political election BS is gone that people will be more receptive to vaccination.  There are likely to be vaccinations required for certain activities.  International travel, school, many workplaces, airline travel, military both active and on base, hospitals.  The list goes on and on. 

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10 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You are overanalyzing.  CLIA made a proposal.  We have not heard anything from the CDC.  Who knows what the actual guidelines will be or when cruising to begin/vaccines available.

It is clear testing is becoming much easier to obtain.  We have walk up testing with results that day or the next in my metro area.

To find COVID testing sites I used a Google search and found several.  2 walk in. Most no referral.  Expect that to get easier as the months go by.

The startup guidelines suggest a B2B not initially allowed, but you could certainly be tested at the port along with the other boarding passengers.

I agree with most of what you said.  But I can tell you that in my area in suburban Chicago, testing is not so easy to come by, especially as regards quick results. Most of the drive up sites here take a minimum of 4 days for results, and very often quite a bit longer.  And you get a verbal (phone) response, with no proof.  That would be useless in the anticipated situation. If you can convince your doctor to order a test for you, you can probably get faster results with proof, but will doctors do that just because you want to travel?  I guess we’ll see what happens in the next few months.

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3 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Cannot find the article you mention.  Guessing that the author is suggesting that achieving herd immunity similarly to Sweden without a vaccine would cost a million lives.  Makes sense to me.

A vaccine obviously moves us to herd immunity much faster and reduces the death total.

I expect after the political election BS is gone that people will be more receptive to vaccination.  There are likely to be vaccinations required for certain activities.  International travel, school, many workplaces, airline travel, military both active and on base, hospitals.  The list goes on and on. 

I suspect you are correct about the article.  That is the only interpretation that makes sense.

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1 hour ago, baldilocks said:

We are still wondering how the prior to boarding testing will be done. We are driving to the port with prior stops in FL. That will put us under pressure to find a COVID testing station within 5 days of departure....and how are we going to get the test results that Celebrity will accept when we are traveling? Sounds like another BOHICA moment.

There's a great deal of variation when it comes to speed of testing and method of providing results. DW and I were tested at the end of July and had the results online in under 36 hours. For other areas, some research may be required to locate a facility that can provide similar service, either at home or, in your case, cities that you will pass through on your drive down.

 

BTW, if the test becomes a BOHICA moment, they are swabbing the wrong part of your anatomy!

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59 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Cannot find the article you mention.  Guessing that the author is suggesting that achieving herd immunity similarly to Sweden without a vaccine would cost a million lives.  Makes sense to me.

A vaccine obviously moves us to herd immunity much faster and reduces the death total.

I expect after the political election BS is gone that people will be more receptive to vaccination.  There are likely to be vaccinations required for certain activities.  International travel, school, many workplaces, airline travel, military both active and on base, hospitals.  The list goes on and on. 

Ok, I have provided the link. The article is very long and offers some novel ideas. Please be advised that part of it involves discussion which is political and why I was reluctant to post it.

 

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/want-herd-immunity-pay-people-to-take-the-vaccine/

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1 hour ago, Fouremco said:

There's a great deal of variation when it comes to speed of testing and method of providing results. DW and I were tested at the end of July and had the results online in under 36 hours. For other areas, some research may be required to locate a facility that can provide similar service, either at home or, in your case, cities that you will pass through on your drive down.

 

BTW, if the test becomes a BOHICA moment, they are swabbing the wrong part of your anatomy!

Thank you for a good laugh.

 

If I were flying out of ORD would look at Physicians Immediate Care.  They had a couple dozen offices where they offer the 15 minute test.  Appointment needed.  They are also doing the Abbot quick test right at the airport.  

 

If we fast forward to 2021 when things are actually likely to start then testing should be even easier to obtain.  

 

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15 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

we are almost at 25% of that point now

True.  But consider that the virus has been here at least 9 months, many of us (admittedly not enough) are now wearing masks and social distancing, and we have greatly improved our treatment when someone does get sick.  If we get a viable vaccine soon, even with phased distribution I don't see how we ever hit a million deaths prior to herd immunity unless things drastically change for the worst, like the virus significantly mutating or the vaccines proving to be ineffective.

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58 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

 

 

If we fast forward to 2021 when things are actually likely to start then testing should be even easier to obtain.  

 

Read several reports about growing shortage of test kits, especially rapid ones.  Hospitals are stockpiling ahead of flu season (need to be able to distinguish flu from covid) plus increased demand from businesses and schools.  Supply just can't keep up with growing demand and we sadly still rely heavily on foreign sources for reagents, swabs, vials, etc.  Hopefully situation should loosen up over time.

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41 minutes ago, WrittenOnYourHeart said:

I've not kept up with the whole testing accuracy - I seem to remember initially that the rapid ones had pretty low accuracy (on both positives and negatives)...has that accuracy improved? If not, seems kind of pointless to have everything hinge on something that unreliable.

Pretty much everything seems to have changed.  The Abbot test is accurate in the 90%+ area and at least locally available at multiple locations - at least 2 on a walk in basis.  Yes, hospitals and health departments are stockpiling and we are dependent on other countries for swabs etc.  That is not surprising in this world of international trade.

Our local University was able to test its faculty and students moving into dorms.  Test results appear to be good.  The ability of the students to refrain from partying off campus - not so good.

Phoenix Dream - the Brookings article number was pure speculation based on no vaccine.  The 200K deaths have 7M cases and about 35M with antibodies.  Thus to get a 50% herd immunity would suggest 35M cases and 1M deaths.  Where this falls apart is most cases - at least in AZ - are 20 to 44 with a much lower death rate.

Edited by Arizona Wildcat
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18 minutes ago, Slyfox16 said:

If you have to go on the ship's tours and not private excursions, can you get off the ship to go shopping in the local stores, near the ship?

 

No.   The idea is to limit the contact with the local population to protect both groups.

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I tend to agree with many of the comments. In areas where it would be good to have firm guidelines (i.e. level of mitigation in ventilation systems) the guidelines are extremely vague and in area that are most burdensome to passengers (i.e. masks, testing, only cruise tours) they seem very specific. So the cruise lines want the flexibility to do the minimum amount and put the onus on the passengers. 

Ventilation on cruise ships has been problematic for many years and cruise ships have not taken any real measures to deal with it. There is no excuse for a cruise line to not sanitize the air coming into your cabin from the ventilation system. I understand HEPA filters are expensive but UV lights are not and provide a high level of protection. 

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3 hours ago, Slyfox16 said:

If you have to go on the ship's tours and not private excursions, can you get off the ship to go shopping in the local stores, near the ship?

No. Not interested in doing Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in staying on the ship if we don't do Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in cruising no matter the cruise line under those restrictions! 

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3 hours ago, davekathy said:

No. Not interested in doing Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in staying on the ship if we don't do Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in cruising no matter the cruise line under those restrictions! 

Your vacation; your choice.

 

I do wonder if under these circumstances, the cruise lines will offer a lot more variety of shore excursion choices.  I also wonder if they will include within those choices a  more reasonable price than their excursions in "normal" times.  I completely understand why they are doing this - it helps keep the passengers from potentially being exposed to the virus onshore, as well as encourages ports to allow ships to dock if they know people won't be allowed to roam free potentially exposing the virus to their residents.  

 

I much prefer to do my own thing onshore (especially in the Caribbean) so this would be a big change for me, but in and of itself I don't think it would stop me from cruising.   There is really no vacation of any type (other than secluding yourself in a vacation home and not venturing out) that will not include a good amount of sacrifices in the way of wearing masks, social distancing, limited entry to entertainment venues inside and outside and so on.   I would prefer to make these sacrifices doing an activity I really love (in this case cruising) than not vacationing at all.  

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1 hour ago, phoenix_dream said:

Your vacation; your choice.

Exactly.  Cruising is only one type of vacation we do and enjoy We've done a couple land trips this year with another planned for October. Lot of changes be we adjusted  and had fun. We are going to just sit back and wait to see what the future guidance will be from the cruise lines. Looking forward to our three 2021 cruises. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, davekathy said:

No. Not interested in doing Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in staying on the ship if we don't do Celebrity only excursions. Not interested in cruising no matter the cruise line under those restrictions! 

Let's hope as time goes by that changes....at least to allow us to book private tours that have a policy to follow that meets all the guidelines and is approved.

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16 minutes ago, Ashland said:

Let's hope as time goes by that changes....at least to allow us to book private tours that have a policy to follow that meets all the guidelines and is approved.

Going to be some tough decisions for us all to make once the final plans are announced.

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One of the key aspects of the cruise line only shore excursion is this key item - will this be a "drive by" experience or will customers be able to get out and actually tour sites and have a meal in a famous local restaurant?

 

If it is a "drive by" primarily - The internet provides a pretty much equivalent product with none of the cost, nor the hassle nor virus exposure.  Just sit back with your favorite adult beverage in the comfort of your home or family bubble location and enjoy the internet pictures, videos etc. Totally rocks for me!  Have already done this with friends who we have cruised with and it was beyond enjoyable and we did it Toronto and San Fran at the same time!   Thanks technology!

 

We also did a wine tasting at the same time, each couple had the same wine and we discussed the wine via Zoom!

 

So, food for thought.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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