Another possible CDC no-sail extension?

[livingonthebeach]

From a maritime legal site comes this -- not sure if rumor or not:

 

"Most recently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) extended its no sail order to pause cruise operations and the Cruise Lines International Association extended the industrywide pause in operations in North America through the end of October 2020.”

 

"Carnival is sending as many as 7,000 termination letters to Carnival officers and crew members. As many as eight captains (masters), five staff captains, five guest service managers, six executive chefs and six hotel directors are among the top ship employees who are being laid off. Carnival sent these letters via e-mails to officers and crew members who are at home on vacation or otherwise at home awaiting a vessel assignment if and when the CDC permits cruising from U.S. ports. Carnival plans to make individual calls to follow up on some of the notices of termination."

 

 

 

[JAMESCC]

That is really, really bad. This is getting worse and worse when officers and hotel managers are getting the ax. Sad days, sad.

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[twangster]

CLIA announced the Oct. 31 date on August 5.  CDC doesn't appear to have modified it's order ...yet.  

[Milwaukee Eight]

What’s the date and source?

[livingonthebeach]

Yesterday - JW site

 

"Carnival Cruise Line is taking steps to terminate and/or not renew the contracts of employment of several thousands of officers and crew members throughout its fleet, according to several crew members who wish to remain anonymous."

 

"Today, several crew members provided internal documentation indicating that Carnival is sending as many as 7,000 termination letters to Carnival officers and crew members. As many as eight captains (masters), five staff captains, five guest service managers, six executive chefs and six hotel directors are among the top ship employees who are being laid off. Carnival sent these letters via e-mails to officers and crew members who are at home on vacation or otherwise at home awaiting a vessel assignment if and when the CDC permits cruising from U.S. ports. Carnival plans to make individual calls to follow up on some of the notices of termination."

Edited September 21, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[JAMESCC]

Yesterday - JW site
 
"Carnival Cruise Line is taking steps to terminate and/or not renew the contracts of employment of several thousands of officers and crew members throughout its fleet, according to several crew members who wish to remain anonymous."
 
"Today, several crew members provided internal documentation indicating that Carnival is sending as many as 7,000 termination letters to Carnival officers and crew members. As many as eight captains (masters), five staff captains, five guest service managers, six executive chefs and six hotel directors are among the top ship employees who are being laid off. Carnival sent these letters via e-mails to officers and crew members who are at home on vacation or otherwise at home awaiting a vessel assignment if and when the CDC permits cruising from U.S. ports. Carnival plans to make individual calls to follow up on some of the notices of termination."

Man captains and staff captains, this is scary stuff. They are hanging on by a thread it seems. When you have to lay off Captains and Staff Captains I'd imagine that is last resort and a very bad sign.
The CDC has effectively killed the industry. I know there is a pandemic, I don't deny that and I take it seriously. As I write this I am wearing a face covering but the CDC has killed this industry. If this continues much longer when even the big lines may not exist.

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[livingonthebeach]

Here's the million dollar question. How long will it take the CDC to review the cruise lines response plan and the public comments.  How many pages of documents and public comments do they have to sift through and can they do it before the Sept 30th expiration of the no-sail order?

[PelicanBill]

3 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Here's the million dollar question. How long will it take the CDC to review the cruise lines response plan and the public comments.  How many pages of documents and public comments do they have to sift through and can they do it before the Sept 30th expiration of the no-sail order?

 

...AND form their own policy statement with all the guidance needed. Of course they could just adopt the joint report and add some detail and spin but there is a lot to get through.  They really have into October since the voluntary CLIA suspension is in effect.  But there is a LOT to get through and decide and write. And them cruise lines need to comply to restart.  And remember, this is a government agency, and it is in turmoil right now.

[twangster]

Carnival Corp. has accelerated selling off a number of ships across it's brands.  Typically each ship has at least two of each senior positions to allow rotations.  With ships leaving the fleet it's no surprise they are reducing senior ship positions and many regular crew positions such as well.  With ~18 fewer ships in the fleet, they won't need as many crew.  It's kind of an obvious outcome with so many ships leaving.  

 

 

[HaveWeMetYet]

29 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

What’s the date and source?

The Carnival board has more info on the layoffs.

 

The stuff about CDC and CLIA is what was announced in July.

Obviously an extension will be coming as there is not enough time to get cruises up and running by November.

[twangster]

To be honest, I'm surprised a CDC extension hasn't been announced yet as we approach the current no sail order expiration date.

 

Shall we start a pool to guess the date it will be extended to?  December 31?

[HaveWeMetYet]

12-15 would be my guess.

[Iamcruzin]

I’m not surprised. CCL has been more aggressive canceling cruises and refunding deposits.You can only do that so long before you can’t make payroll. Such a shame but many around the world are still out of work. It will be interesting to see how Q4 plays out in terms of the economy.

[HBE4]

1 minute ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

12-15 would be my guess.

 

I'll put $20 down for Dec 15th as well.

[livingonthebeach]

6 minutes ago, twangster said:

To be honest, I'm surprised a CDC extension hasn't been announced yet as we approach the current no sail order expiration date.

 

Shall we start a pool to guess the date it will be extended to?  December 31?

 

Let's see, if we go by history repeats itself:

 

March 14, 2020 -- no-sail 30 days

April 9, 2020 - no-sail 100 days

July 16, 2020 - no sail 76 days

 

Sept ?? no-sail 30 days to October 30?  60 days? Nov 30?  90 days????

[BND]

4 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

12-15 would be my guess.

I agree, for now as the Christmas/New Year's cruise season is very popular and are usually booked well in advance so they want to keep booking them.  If they can hold the money even as FCC's it's a large amount of cash.  I've been saying for months that cruising wasn't going to happen for a while.  I've had a couple of people on FB  argue that the cancellation is only through Oct 31 and that they'll be going on Nov 1 when it's been obvious for a while that isn't happening.  We cancelled our Nov 1 and 8 b2b on Harmony before final payment because we knew it wasn't happening.  

[sandebeach]

This copy of a termination letter was posted on a Carnival FB page. 

[molly361]

13 minutes ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

12-15 would be my guess.

 

10 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

I'll put $20 down for Dec 15th as well.

Add me to that one

[HBE4]

4 minutes ago, molly361 said:

 

Add me to that one

 

Word of caution. My betting record is pretty horrible. There's a reason why I don't join football pools anymore. By Week 2, I'd be so horribly behind, with no chance of winning, that I'd might as well as light the $20 bill on fire and save myself some anguish.

[Ashland]

I'll take Dec 31st. as my bet.

And will raise it to possibly early first quarter of 2021.

[Billy Baltic]

9 minutes ago, Ashland said:

I'll take Dec 31st. as my bet.

And will raise it to possibly early first quarter of 2021.

Seems right to me. If people on this forum are correct, the CDC don’t consider the business impact of their decisions so the Xmas market is of no significance to them.

 

I’d say it’s possible the CDC will only give the industry the green light when a vaccine is widely available. 

[Pratique]

The CDC will extend the order as many times as they need to but the cruise lines will be exempted on a case-by-case basis once their response plans are submitted and approved. That is what will determine when they can resume operations. Don't focus on the no sail order expiration date.

[mo&fran]

1 hour ago, JAMESCC said:

Man captains and staff captains, this is scary stuff. They are hanging on by a thread it seems. When you have to lay off Captains and Staff Captains I'd imagine that is last resort and a very bad sign.
The CDC has effectively killed the industry. I know there is a pandemic, I don't deny that and I take it seriously. As I write this I am wearing a face covering but the CDC has killed this industry. If this continues much longer when even the big lines may not exist.

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Keep in mind these people are Captains, and I imagine they have unlimited Masters  license's. If you open the Marine Traffic web site and zoom out on the map of the world.  Every red and green ship symbol represents a vessel that requires a person with that license.  The same holds true for the chief engineer and their staff.

 Now, the hotel staff is a whole different situation.

[Ashland]

1 minute ago, mo&fran said:

Keep in mind these people are Captains, and I imagine they have unlimited Masters  license's. If you open the Marine Traffic web site and zoom out on the map of the world.  Every red and green ship symbol represents a vessel that requires a person with that license.  The same holds true for the chief engineer and their staff.

 Now, the hotel staff is a whole different situation.

Very true...but  I'm sure most would rather not have to go back to sailing cargo ships etc.

[Pratique]

5 minutes ago, Ashland said:

Very true...but  I'm sure most would rather not have to go back to sailing cargo ships etc.

At a Captain's Corner someone asked Captain Rob if he would ever consider going back to fishing boats in Alaska. He just smiled and gave the diplomatic answer "I'm happy working for Royal Caribbean."

Edited September 21, 2020 by Pratique