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Anyone else just giving up on a cruise for a while?


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We are waiting for the same. Just don't think the world will be safe enough until 2022. I hope the FCC s will be extended

I agree, and I am 68 but in excellent shape and love cruising but 2021 doesn’t look good or safe- at least the first half. Most states have their virus rates going up, even here in Virginia where it’s been decent and it’s only mid October! What going to happen the next few months based on the escalation in the last month doesn’t look promising at all. The mid year widely available vaccines will be the only solution.


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2 minutes ago, Dwight1 said:


I agree, and I am 68 but in excellent shape and love cruising but 2021 doesn’t look good or safe- at least the first half. Most states have their virus rates going up, even here in Virginia where it’s been decent and it’s only mid October! What going to happen the next few months based on the escalation in the last month doesn’t look promising at all. The mid year widely available vaccines will be the only solution.


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Same here in MA, 25 of our cities/towns have been moved back to the red zone.  Mayor of Boston warned today that if it continues because of lax fools, he will consider closing the city again.  

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27 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

 

The most recent estimates I’ve seen out of the CDC and other medical resources that I can follow show the actual death rate to be about 0.6-0.7%. Perhaps more importantly these estimates have been done across the country in various populations with slightly different methodologies, and the results are moving in closer and closer agreement. At this point, the death rate can continue to slowly decline, but is unlikely to significantly increase unless something drastic changes with the virus. In the 2018-19 flu season, the estimated death rate was about 0.1%, if my calculation is correct. It wasn’t a particularly bad flu season with reasonable efficacy of vaccines. 
I do not want to minimize anyone’s death or suffering, but considering that this a novel virus that at one point we thought there was no natural immunity against, a 0.7% death rate is not as bad as we thought. Even a partially efficacious vaccine used in the right populations could bring that rate down to a flu rate - a bad flu season might easily have 3-5 times the number of deaths.

 

There's also a study that came out of the Indiana University School of Medicine which showed a death rate of 0.26%. Their sample was a bit smaller and limited to the state of Indiana but this spring everyone was talking about millions of deaths and a 10% mortality rate but we know that it's much much lower then that

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/09/26/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found/#32ff181c5c46

 

There are some unanswered questions about any long lasting effects and obviously i'm not trying to undermine those or anyone that has passed because of Covid but as with everything...there has to be a balanced approach to things. If we locked everyone up in their home and nobody could leave or interact with anyone then we'd drop down to nearly 0 deaths but that's not a plausible solution.

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4 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

There's also a study that came out of the Indiana University School of Medicine which showed a death rate of 0.26%. Their sample was a bit smaller and limited to the state of Indiana but this spring everyone was talking about millions of deaths and a 10% mortality rate but we know that it's much much lower then that

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/09/26/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found/#32ff181c5c46

 

There are some unanswered questions about any long lasting effects and obviously i'm not trying to undermine those or anyone that has passed because of Covid but as with everything...there has to be a balanced approach to things. If we locked everyone up in their home and nobody could leave or interact with anyone then we'd drop down to nearly 0 deaths but that's not a plausible solution.

Why is it not?  It worked in Wuhan, China.

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9 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

Why is it not?  It worked in Wuhan, China.

For one thing, managing an outbreak in a Communist country where only the government has any human rights is way different than any other free country.  I also don't know how our economy could survive if we were to take such strict measures at this time, so far into the virus timeline.  And I was intrigued by your comment so did some Google searching.  A number of their experts are predicting that another wave this winter is "inevitable" .  So they may have been able to contain it for awhile, but it is definitely still a threat.

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56 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

There's also a study that came out of the Indiana University School of Medicine which showed a death rate of 0.26%. Their sample was a bit smaller and limited to the state of Indiana but this spring everyone was talking about millions of deaths and a 10% mortality rate but we know that it's much much lower then that

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/09/26/what-is-the-death-rate-for-covid-19-coronavirus-what-this-study-found/#32ff181c5c46

 

There are some unanswered questions about any long lasting effects and obviously i'm not trying to undermine those or anyone that has passed because of Covid but as with everything...there has to be a balanced approach to things. If we locked everyone up in their home and nobody could leave or interact with anyone then we'd drop down to nearly 0 deaths but that's not a plausible solution.

there are a couple of issues with the study. First it was relatively early in the outbreak and the denominator was based upon antibody tests. As with several other studies made during a time when disease incidence was low, the false positive in antibody studies can through off the numbers quite s bit. if your population has an incidence rate of 2% and your test false positive rate is 5% (not uncommon for antibody tests).

It can through the numbers off quite a bit.

 

Second it eliminates any institutionalized cases. which as the study says is 50% of the cases.

 

Combine those two facts alone and the results are at least in the .7 range. Similar to what others have stated.

 

but let's do a quick exercise using the. .26% number. considering that covid continues to infect year round and that there are already cases of reinfection  some being worse then the original. 

 

In a situation where this remains uncontrolled, and you seem to be advocating for no restrictions, so it would be pretty incontrolled.

 

Then using your .23% number that would result in:

 

230,000 at 100 million

460,000 at 200 million

690,000 at 300 million

 

real numbers from total population are around 3 times that leading to around 2 million at that time, and with no controls it would eventually get there

 

 

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2 minutes ago, nocl said:

there are a couple of issues with the study. First it was relatively early in the outbreak and the denominator was based upon antibody tests. As with several other studies made during a time when disease incidence was low, the false positive in antibody studies can through off the numbers quite s bit. if your population has an incidence rate of 2% and your test false positive rate is 5% (not uncommon for antibody tests).

It can through the numbers off quite a bit.

 

Second it eliminates any institutionalized cases. which as the study says is 50% of the cases.

 

Combine those two facts alone and the results are at least in the .7 range. Similar to what others have stated.

 

but let's do a quick exercise using the. .26% number. considering that covid continues to infect year round and that there are already cases of reinfection  some being worse then the original. 

 

In a situation where this remains uncontrolled, and you seem to be advocating for no restrictions, so it would be pretty incontrolled.

 

Then using your .23% number that would result in:

 

230,000 at 100 million

460,000 at 200 million

690,000 at 300 million

 

real numbers from total population are around 3 times that leading to around 2 million at that time, and with no controls it would eventually get there

 

 

Perhaps you guys can start or join an established medical or science blog where others will be far more impressed by your showing off your stats and assumed intelligence.  This is a CRUISE site.  Please go away already!!!

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1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

Why is it not?  It worked in Wuhan, China.

 

It has? Do you actually believe the numbers they're reporting? The country responsible for the virus with 1.5 billion people has reported less than 5,000 cases in the past 7 months, and only 20 cases yesterday. If you believe any of these numbers coming out of China well i've got some oceanfront land to sell you in Nebraska.

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18 minutes ago, DaCruiseBug said:

 

It has? Do you actually believe the numbers they're reporting? The country responsible for the virus with 1.5 billion people has reported less than 5,000 cases in the past 7 months, and only 20 cases yesterday. If you believe any of these numbers coming out of China well i've got some oceanfront land to sell you in Nebraska.

Wow, timing is everything!  I have been looking for a vacation home in one of the fly over states.  Have you listed on Zillow?  If so, can you send the link and please tell me the beach chairs are included.

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1 hour ago, LGW59 said:

Wow, timing is everything!  I have been looking for a vacation home in one of the fly over states.  Have you listed on Zillow?  If so, can you send the link and please tell me the beach chairs are included.

l - will you list it on Air B&B??? LOL

 

bon voyage

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Too soon to book or really think about cruising.  As more people get sick and die, cruising is not a good option.  This virus has changed everything.  I stay home and only go out for essentials. I wear a mask.  I am fear getting too close to people.  I get upset if people come too close.  I am afraid.   After being stuck on a cruise in March that was denied entry into several ports, I am wondering if I will ever be relaxed enough to sail.  I used to cruise 4-5 times a year.  For now, I stay home and wait for safer times.  

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17 minutes ago, Redtravel said:

 I am afraid.   After being stuck on a cruise in March that was denied entry into several ports, I am wondering if I will ever be relaxed enough to sail.  I used to cruise 4-5 times a year.  For now, I stay home and wait for safer times.  

I can understand your thoughts. Sounds like you have PCTSS,  Pandemic Cruise Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Hope time and a vaccine will relieve your fears.

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16 minutes ago, terrydtx said:

I can understand your thoughts. Sounds like you have PCTSS,  Pandemic Cruise Traumatic Stress Syndrome. Hope time and a vaccine will relieve your fears.

Never knew I had a syndrome.   I loved cruising until March. Wish that I had stayed home.  Being stuck at sea, afraid to do anything, was awful. Going nowhere, unable to enjoy ports, most venues closed is not a great vacation.   I will likely travel again after a vaccine is widely administered. For now, I feel safe at home.  

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8 hours ago, Redtravel said:

Never knew I had a syndrome.   I loved cruising until March. Wish that I had stayed home.  Being stuck at sea, afraid to do anything, was awful. Going nowhere, unable to enjoy ports, most venues closed is not a great vacation.   I will likely travel again after a vaccine is widely administered. For now, I feel safe at home.  

I understand how anyone who went through that would feel like you do.  I am glad you are ok.

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On 10/15/2020 at 5:13 PM, DaCruiseBug said:

 

It has? Do you actually believe the numbers they're reporting? The country responsible for the virus with 1.5 billion people has reported less than 5,000 cases in the past 7 months, and only 20 cases yesterday. If you believe any of these numbers coming out of China well i've got some oceanfront land to sell you in Nebraska.

Thank you!  Heck no, I don't believe their numbers.  Hope you get lots of offers on your oceanfront!

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4 minutes ago, dlfntx said:

Thank you!  Heck no, I don't believe their numbers.  Hope you get lots of offers on your oceanfront!

Then you clearly do not understand how China is run.  I do because I have first hand knowledge.  To start there are not 1.5B people in China, there are 1.39B.  Not going into the where it came from, responsibility etc, that will be decided and discussed adnauseum in the years to come.  In the past two weeks China has tested 10 million + people, it is mandatory, not a choice if you want to "freely" move around the country.  If you test negative, you are "green", go about and travel etc, "freely", if you are "yellow", your movements are restricted, if you are "red" go home and see us again in 2 weeks.  This is not intended as a comparison between Communist country v Democracy, just intended to let you know what and how China has been doing for many many months to deal with this.  They have bbeen doing a far better job with this than the US because of their system.  Right or wrong I make no judgment, but it is a fact. 

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12 hours ago, LGW59 said:

Then you clearly do not understand how China is run.  I do because I have first hand knowledge.  To start there are not 1.5B people in China, there are 1.39B.  Not going into the where it came from, responsibility etc, that will be decided and discussed adnauseum in the years to come.  In the past two weeks China has tested 10 million + people, it is mandatory, not a choice if you want to "freely" move around the country.  If you test negative, you are "green", go about and travel etc, "freely", if you are "yellow", your movements are restricted, if you are "red" go home and see us again in 2 weeks.  This is not intended as a comparison between Communist country v Democracy, just intended to let you know what and how China has been doing for many many months to deal with this.  They have bbeen doing a far better job with this than the US because of their system.  Right or wrong I make no judgment, but it is a fact. 

 

Oh yes, of course. Why would the country that purposely delayed releasing data and information to the international community about Covid-19 be dishonest about their numbers? Nah...China is 100% legit.

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China, I trust nothing about them and most certainly nothing related to this virus.

 

China is the source of many viruses, many of the destructive pests etc as well as attempts to destroy democracy.

 

I would trust 0% of anything that originates in that country.

 

Hence why no one I know has ever travelled to China on principle. 

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13 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

China, I trust nothing about them and most certainly nothing related to this virus.

 

China is the source of many viruses, many of the destructive pests etc as well as attempts to destroy democracy.

 

I would trust 0% of anything that originates in that country.

 

Hence why no one I know has ever travelled to China on principle. 

I was a partner in a company that negotiated a contract with the Chinese government in the late 1990's. After two years of getting screwed over by the Chicoms we pulled out of the deal. I personally lost over $400,000 and learned a good lesson, do not trust the Chinese on anything.  They do not believe in the rule of law and  the sanctity of contracted deals. They are one of the most corrupt countries  in the world and yes look back at how many viruses over the last 30 years have originated in China. It doesn't take a Brainiac to know they have lied to the world about Covid 19 and their infection and mortality rates from the very beginning. I refuse to ever travel to or in China and try hard to never buy anything made in China.

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terrydtx, OMG, your loss.  I am so sorry for that, yikes.

 

Yep, my subdivision is 60% new Canadian Chinese folks mostly working high tech and earning big $. To the last one, they detest China and they will not buy stuff made in China. These are people who were born in China.

 

As I posted, none of my friends or I have travelled to China on principle given what they are about. 

 

There are many people like us out there terrydtx, stay well!

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40 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

terrydtx, OMG, your loss.  I am so sorry for that, yikes.

 

Yep, my subdivision is 60% new Canadian Chinese folks mostly working high tech and earning big $. To the last one, they detest China and they will not buy stuff made in China. These are people who were born in China.

 

As I posted, none of my friends or I have travelled to China on principle given what they are about. 

 

There are many people like us out there terrydtx, stay well!

Thank you.  I flew to Beijing and or Shanghai  twice a month for almost 3 years, but I got over my loss and got into another line of business that turned out to be very profitable. While things were good we were treated by the Chinese officials like hero's, once things started going bad they would literally turn their backs on us and walk out of meetings. At one of our last meetings we told our Chinese partners we were going to file law suits against them and they basically said good luck with that since they controlled the court system in China. and any judgments in the USA would be unenforceable.

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35 minutes ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

Let’s put it this way.  Seeing as I’m working from home through next summer, seems impossible to believe there will be any sense of normal and hence any cruising anytime soon.  Just doesn’t add up in my opinion.

Carnival cruises sure may be for even longer.  Federal judge in FL may shut them down until January from the previous judgment aginst them in the repeated skirting of pollution  maritime laws.  Looks like she will decide withiin the week based on article I read today.  Good on her, Carnival Corp and ships are a cesspool, IMO.  

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1 hour ago, terrydtx said:

Thank you.  I flew to Beijing and or Shanghai  twice a month for almost 3 years, but I got over my loss and got into another line of business that turned out to be very profitable. While things were good we were treated by the Chinese officials like hero's, once things started going bad they would literally turn their backs on us and walk out of meetings. At one of our last meetings we told our Chinese partners we were going to file law suits against them and they basically said good luck with that since they controlled the court system in China. and any judgments in the USA would be unenforceable.

Beijing and Shanghai are two of the most beautiful citites I have ever visited.  Agree on the Chinese Gvt too, but our current leaders have done the very best they can to minimize COVID, withhold information and pretend it will magically disaapear by Easter, then it was by 4th of July, then it was by,  jeez I don't know...dictators do this, they lie to their people.

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