How long can the major cruise lines last

[cruiselover53]

Would be interesting to know peoples thoughts on how long the major cruise lines can last. There must be a point when they must pull the plug (sic).It must be costing a fortune to keep operating.

[SinbadThePorter]

34 minutes ago, cruiselover53 said:

It must be costing a fortune to keep operating.

 

For Carnival Corp here:

 

"During the pause in guest operations, the monthly average cash burn rate for the second half of 2020 is estimated to be approximately $650 million."

 

"Second quarter 2020 ended with $7.6 billion of available liquidity, and the company expects to further enhance future liquidity, including through refinancing scheduled debt maturities. In addition, the company has $8.8 billion of committed export credit facilities that are available to fund ship deliveries originally planned through 2023."

 

I'm not too sure how easily the money can be moved around between accounts, but it suggests to me that more than 12 months of this hiatus would put the company in real trouble.

Edited October 9, 2020 by SinbadThePorter

[By The Bay]

29 minutes ago, cruiselover53 said:

Would be interesting to know peoples thoughts on how long the major cruise lines can last. There must be a point when they must pull the plug (sic).It must be costing a fortune to keep operating.

A quick google found these comments.

 

" A Motley Fool analysis argues that Royal Caribbean is actually the most financially shipshape major cruise line — and that Norwegian, the smallest of the big three, is like the “first to buckle” if there’s a shakeout.)"

 

 

[OzKiwiJJ]

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23641-carnival-business-update-16-months-of-cash-on-hand.html

[NSWP]

Couple of years of non trading before crash, even the mighty Carnival Corp.

[icat2000]

I say if they don't get a start by late 2021 there will be some real pain for the cruiselines and probably impact the smaller lines first. I suspect that only cruiselines will operate regionally i.e that they do regional cruises taking passengers from that region. Similar to what Morrison was barking about yesterday when he mentioned about only being able to travel to certain countries and cross off Europe and USA until 2022. I suspect if they follows through with this then that would not allow for passengers from these regions to cruise downunder either.

 

So learn to love travelling locally, NZ or South Pacific for awhile. Though its going to make it very crowded in some spots. 

Edited October 12, 2020 by icat2000

[MMDown Under]

Broadway has announced it will remain closed until end of May, with many remaining shut until next Fall.  In 2019, Broadway sold $1.8 million worth of tickets.  

I can't imagine visiting New York and not going to Broadway and the other theatres or London visiting the West End and other theatres. 

Cruise industry doesn't stand alone, as many people cruise combined with land travel.

[getting older slowly]

I thought goes to all the small businesses,

who rely on the tourists who are nowhere to be seen....

 

Along the tour operators and support staff which operate for the cruise industry...

          

and to everyone who is closed or stopped bu Covid-19

 

Don

[MicCanberra]

I think it depends on a few things.

If the cruise lines keep operating as if they will start within a month or so, they will go bust by the end of 2021 or middle of 2022, however if they shut down with the intention of starting at the middle or end of next year, they have a much better hope for survival.

[Kiwi Kruzer]

It’s quite a unique situation,. The financiers and bankers who finance cruise lines can’t really foreclose and seize the assets as who would they sell to ?

[getting older slowly]

The other  thing is... what percentage of future cruises  have been booked with credits....

 

against new money.... ???    

 

So cruised booked with people  but no flow of monies from fares....

 

Value of a second hand as well as new cruise ships...... Could buy a couple  ...lol

 

Only time will tell..... but not with my money...   well have $200 in FCD  tied up....

but that is chicken feed......

 

So everybody is twiddling their thumbs    and waiting

 

"" Are we there yet ? ""      Don

[bazzaw]

I  noted this video when it came out in early September.

Despite the appearance of the Title - it is reasonably positive - but halfway through the vid it starts to discuss the finance arrangements of Carnival and RCL - obtaining multi-Billion Dollar finances to last them until Mid-2021. I have also noted lots of people very positive - but wonder if they understand just how long the last pandemic went on 100 years ago ( years!!) .?? Is mid 2021, the reckoning time for the cruise Industry??? 

[Aus Traveller]

The Spanish flu pandemic lasted close to two years before it ended. It killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people, but there was not much available in the way of treatment. With the current pandemic, most of us are hoping for an effective vaccine.

[bazzaw]

1 minute ago, Aus Traveller said:

The Spanish flu pandemic lasted close to two years before it ended. It killed an estimated 20 to 50 million people, but there was not much available in the way of treatment. With the current pandemic, most of us are hoping for an effective vaccine.

"Hoping" is the correct word. 🙂 

[MicCanberra]

There will be something but will it be effective straight away, or even after a year. 100% is hard to achieve and immunity has not been proven even with the effective treatment so far, some will continue to contract the disease.

[The_Big_M]

 

Another 6 months or so, as RCL has raised another billion dollars.