Excellent COVID Great Barrington Declaration

[the more ports the better]

Everyone should read the Great Barrington Declaration.  The entire declaration is worth a read.  Gives great scientific insight as to the state of COVID lockdowns and repercussions by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford in addition to 25,000 medical professionals and scientists.  Hopefully, we can get back our traveling lives!

 

https://gbdeclaration.org/

 

Edited October 11, 2020 by the more ports the better

[Jay23]

Thank you.  

[comcox]

I saw no recommendations about masks in their suggestions.  They also seem to think that those of us who are older should remain lock-downed while everyone else goes about their lives.  Not something I could agree to.

[njhorseman]

8 hours ago, the more ports the better said:

Everyone should read the Great Barrington Declaration.  The entire declaration is worth a read.  Gives great scientific insight as to the state of COVID lockdowns and repercussions by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford in addition to 25,000 medical professionals and scientists.  Hopefully, we can get back our traveling lives!

 

https://gbdeclaration.org/

 

It's not " by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford" . The paper is the opinion of three individuals who are employed at those institutions not the universities themselves. 

I've seen some of the sweeping generalizations they've made expressed by others, and just as the others I've seen this cleverly avoids supporting any of the opinions with actual data.

[Vertygo]

Basically the Swedish model. Their premise of lockdowns decreasing child vaccination rates, increasing cardiovascular events & missed cancer screenings is fallacious-even in states with more restrictions there are none on obtaining medical care. In fact, here in California there are TV ads encouraging people to not ignore needed medical visits. If people would consistently wear masks & distance when out in public I suspect we could reach a level of activity much more closer to "normal" than we have now.

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, Vertygo said:

Basically the Swedish model. Their premise of lockdowns decreasing child vaccination rates, increasing cardiovascular events & missed cancer screenings is fallacious-even in states with more restrictions there are none on obtaining medical care. In fact, here in California there are TV ads encouraging people to not ignore needed medical visits. If people would consistently wear masks & distance when out in public I suspect we could reach a level of activity much more closer to "normal" than we have now.

In terms of the fatality rate, Sweden's approach was an unmitigated disaster. Their deaths per 100,000 residents ranks with some of the worst countries, such as the US and UK. It's about 5 times higher than Denmark's, and 10 times higher than Finland's and Norway's. In particular Sweden failed horribly in the protection of its most vulnerable....senior citizens, particularly those in nursing homes, just as we failed miserably in protecting the same group.

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by njhorseman

[Vertygo]

43 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

In terms of the fatality rate, Sweden's approach was an unmitigated disaster. Their deaths per 100,000 residents ranks with some of the worst countries, such as the US and UK. It's about 5 times higher than Denmark's, and 10 times higher than Finland's and Norway's. In particular Sweden failed horribly in the protection of its most vulnerable....senior citizens, particularly those in nursing homes, just as we failed miserably in protecting the same group.

 

 

Exactly, which is why I was taken aback seeing these epidemiologists recommend a similar approach.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Vertygo said:

 

Exactly, which is why I was taken aback seeing these epidemiologists recommend a similar approach.

Right. I just felt it was useful to lay out what happened in Sweden lest anyone not familiar with the situation there thought your mention of Sweden was intended to be a favorable comment.

[Hawaiidan]

On 10/11/2020 at 2:56 AM, comcox said:

I saw no recommendations about masks in their suggestions.  They also seem to think that those of us who are older should remain lock-downed while everyone else goes about their lives.  Not something I could agree to.

Well,  the WHO  has said lockdowns cause more problems than they solve.   And yes risk people should be the ones to take care  but leave others alone...     life has to go on.    

[msears101]

I am shocked at most of the comments here.  Wow.

 

So there are  plenty of people who have endorsed this "manifesto", including medical doctors.  I will start by saying I do not agree or disagree with all of it.  There are MANY valid points, and points that are not that great, but have firm basis in logic, just not my cup of tea.  The document pretty much passes Carl Sagan's bologna detector.  Check that out.

 

Before you comment on a document like this, ask yourself why so many with people DR as their title have written this or endorsed it?  What is the point?

 

Do you think these people know less than you?  Do these people know less than CNN, Fox, or insert your favorite media organization?  Keep in mind, the media has turned into "entertainment".   People only tune in when there is a reason - the way they portray this virus makes sure there is a reason.

 

To address Sweden model vs the rest of the world.  NY state has some of the tightest restrictions in the world AND the highest number of deaths per population (183 deaths per 100,000 in  NY).  Do lock downs work? The evidence, forget about Sweden (58 deaths per 100,000 in Sweden) look at NY state which is more than 3 times worse than sweden..  NY still has lots of lockdowns in place.

 

The notion that if I have to be locked down, everyone needs to be locked down is preposterous.  The virus does not affect everyone equally.  Locking everyone down equally does not make sense.  I personally think people should be deciding how to live their own lives and allowing people to take their own risks IS the right thing to do.

 

I encourage you not to agree with me or disagree, but to think critically, and  support position with facts, and raw data not guesses or feelings.  The CDC has lots of good data that the "media" ignores.

 

I will end with this.  I was invited to listen to a world renowned economist talk about the effects of the disease in Africa and Asia.  Health wise it is ok, the state of the people there is not good.  The knock on effects of this disease is causing damage for GENERATIONs to come. 

 

All the best to all of you, and I hope you look for facts not "News STORIES".  Think for yourself and always ask, "let me see the data."

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, msears101 said:

I am shocked at most of the comments here.  Wow.

 

So there are  plenty of people who have endorsed this "manifesto", including medical doctors.  I will start by saying I do not agree or disagree with all of it.  There are MANY valid points, and points that are not that great, but have firm basis in logic, just not my cup of tea.  The document pretty much passes Carl Sagan's bologna detector.  Check that out.

 

Before you comment on a document like this, ask yourself why so many with people DR as their title have written this or endorsed it?  What is the point?

 

Do you think these people know less than you?  Do these people know less than CNN, Fox, or insert your favorite media organization?  Keep in mind, the media has turned into "entertainment".   People only tune in when there is a reason - the way they portray this virus makes sure there is a reason.

 

To address Sweden model vs the rest of the world.  NY state has some of the tightest restrictions in the world AND the highest number of deaths per population (183 deaths per 100,000 in  NY).  Do lock downs work? The evidence, forget about Sweden (58 deaths per 100,000 in Sweden) look at NY state which is more than 3 times worse than sweden..  NY still has lots of lockdowns in place.

 

The notion that if I have to be locked down, everyone needs to be locked down is preposterous.  The virus does not affect everyone equally.  Locking everyone down equally does not make sense.  I personally think people should be deciding how to live their own lives and allowing people to take their own risks IS the right thing to do.

 

I encourage you not to agree with me or disagree, but to think critically, and  support position with facts, and raw data not guesses or feelings.  The CDC has lots of good data that the "media" ignores.

 

I will end with this.  I was invited to listen to a world renowned economist talk about the effects of the disease in Africa and Asia.  Health wise it is ok, the state of the people there is not good.  The knock on effects of this disease is causing damage for GENERATIONs to come. 

 

All the best to all of you, and I hope you look for facts not "News STORIES".  Think for yourself and always ask, "let me see the data."

I'm a mathematician and retired actuary, so i will assure you that I looked at the data before posting and here's what they show:

 

There are over 950,000 practicing physicians in the US and about 300,000 in the UK. Of that 1.25 million, just under 25,000 have signed this petition. That's only 2%. I'll side with the 98% who haven't signed.

 

As an actuary I can tell you that comparing Sweden's  numbers with NY's is inappropriate for so many reasons...socio-economic, nature of the health care system, and if you want  hard data, Sweden's population density is 64 people per square mile as opposed to 421 per square mile for NY State...and 26,400 people per square mile in NY City, the part of the state worst hit by the pandemic. Population density plays a huge role in the spread of a highly communicable disease like COVID-19. Sweden's largest city, Stockholm, has  a population density of 11,802 per square mile, less than half of NY City's density.

 

The appropriate countries from  geographic,  demographic and socio-economic bases to compare with Sweden are Denmark, Norway and Finland, all of which imposed stronger lock downs . Sweden's COVID-19 death rate per the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center is 57.88....5 times that of Denmark's 11.57,  9 times Finland's 6.27 rate and 11 times Norway's 5.19 deaths per 100K population. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

Further, even Sweden's top epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell,  has admitted his strategy was wrong and resulted in too many deaths: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

 

"Sweden’s top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight Covid-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown.

“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio."

 

And...Sweden's economy has actually fared worse in the second quarter than its three Nordic neighbor countries despite Sweden not being locked down : https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

 

If you'd like more I'm sure I could find it, but I think the above are more than enough.

 

[cbb]

not a big fan of Wikipedia for major research on a topic but sometimes it is a good beginning.....

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Barrington_Declaration

 

 

[cbb]

and this.....https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-herd-immunity/2020/10/10/3910251c-0a60-11eb-859b-f9c27abe638d_story.html

[Paulchili]

18 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I'm a mathematician and retired actuary, so i will assure you that I looked at the data before posting and here's what they show:

 

There are over 950,000 practicing physicians in the US and about 300,000 in the UK. Of that 1.25 million, just under 25,000 have signed this petition. That's only 2%. I'll side with the 98% who haven't signed.

 

As an actuary I can tell you that comparing Sweden's  numbers with NY's is inappropriate for so many reasons...socio-economic, nature of the health care system, and if you want  hard data, Sweden's population density is 64 people per square mile as opposed to 421 per square mile for NY State...and 26,400 people per square mile in NY City, the part of the state worst hit by the pandemic. Population density plays a huge role in the spread of a highly communicable disease like COVID-19. Sweden's largest city, Stockholm, has  a population density of 11,802 per square mile, less than half of NY City's density.

 

The appropriate countries from  geographic,  demographic and socio-economic bases to compare with Sweden are Denmark, Norway and Finland, all of which imposed stronger lock downs . Sweden's COVID-19 death rate per the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center is 57.88....5 times that of Denmark's 11.57,  9 times Finland's 6.27 rate and 11 times Norway's 5.19 deaths per 100K population. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

Further, even Sweden's top epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell,  has admitted his strategy was wrong and resulted in too many deaths: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

 

"Sweden’s top epidemiologist has admitted his strategy to fight Covid-19 resulted in too many deaths, after persuading his country to avoid a strict lockdown.

“If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Anders Tegnell said in an interview with Swedish Radio."

 

And...Sweden's economy has actually fared worse in the second quarter than its three Nordic neighbor countries despite Sweden not being locked down : https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

 

If you'd like more I'm sure I could find it, but I think the above are more than enough.

 

I totally agree with what you said.

Unfortunately, it would appear that the "unofficial official" policy of this current WH is to go Swedish & herd immunity.

The death toll for this approach could be in the millions rather than thousands.

In view of this it is not surprising to me that today 34 States are showing increases in new cases , remainder are stable and no State is "green" (meaning decrease in new cases).

We have definitely not "turned the corner" on COVID

Edited October 14, 2020 by Paulchili

[Shawnino]

The vast majority of people I'm in touch with are voting their pocketbook on this one. Nothing intrinsically wrong with that. It's not ideal but forced to choose, I'd rather see people vote rationally than irrationally even if I don't love the specific rationale.

It breaks down like this:

 

--People who are financially independent and/or retired like the notion of a lockdown. They don't want to get sick.

--In my country, the government handout works out to a few bucks more than minimum wage. Workers making less than that, or roughly same as that, like the lockdown because they get money for nothing and it hasn't materially hurt their economics.

...whereas...

--The people who need an open society to maintain their standard of living are against lockdowns because they're getting absolutely crushed financially.

 

Like the chair hogs, like the pigs jumping the line with their elbows out at the Chocolate Buffet, like the yokels who insist that everything is better back home, most people are in this strictly for their own interest.

[LouChamp]

Everyone should read the Great Barrington Declaration.  The entire declaration is worth a read.  Gives great scientific insight as to the state of COVID lockdowns and repercussions by Harvard, Stanford and Oxford in addition to 25,000 medical professionals and scientists.  Hopefully, we can get back our traveling lives!

 

https://gbdeclaration.org/

 

it is moronic


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[Sea42]

4 hours ago, Shawnino said:

The people who need an open society to maintain their standard of living are against lockdowns because they're getting absolutely crushed financially.

 

Like the chair hogs, like the pigs jumping the line with their elbows out at the Chocolate Buffet, like the yokels who insist that everything is better back home, most people are in this strictly for their own interest.

Wow, that's pretty harsh. Many small business owners are losing their livelihoods and everything they've worked very hard for for years. They are not hogs at a trough or yokels because they want to keep feeding they're families and to be able to continue to afford to pay their mortgages. Empathy is not a bad thing, you should try it!

[Paulchili]

On 10/13/2020 at 4:19 PM, njhorseman said:

There are over 950,000 practicing physicians in the US and about 300,000 in the UK. Of that 1.25 million, just under 25,000 have signed this petition. That's only 2%. I'll side with the 98% who haven't signed.

Admittedly I have not seen all the signatories to this but I am hearing on cable that among them are Dr. Johnny Bananas and Dr. Fakename.

I have nothing to add to that 😀

[Shawnino]

14 hours ago, Paulchili said:

Admittedly I have not seen all the signatories to this but I am hearing on cable that among them are Dr. Johnny Bananas and Dr. Fakename.

I have nothing to add to that 😀

 

You forgot Dr. Feelgood , Dr. Demento, and Dr. Pepper.

[jaga04]

On 10/13/2020 at 4:38 PM, msears101 said:

To address Sweden model vs the rest of the world.  NY state has some of the tightest restrictions in the world AND the highest number of deaths per population (183 deaths per 100,000 in  NY).  Do lock downs work? The evidence, forget about Sweden (58 deaths per 100,000 in Sweden) look at NY state which is more than 3 times worse than sweden..  NY still has lots of lockdowns in place.

...

Think for yourself and always ask, "let me see the data."

NY is actually a great example of how lockdowns/restrictions DO work.  If one looks at the graphs of the new cases and deaths per day, it's very clear.  Sure, the NYC area was caught off guard at the beginning and probably due to population density, not knowing how to deal with the virus or how contagious it is, overwhelmed hospitals, etc., they had huge numbers of new cases and deaths early on.  Those numbers have gone down and pretty much stayed there since the middle of April, increasing a bit as restrictions are loosened.  The overall numbers don't tell the whole story at all.  

[Vertygo]

Take a look at the John Snow Memorandum, johnsnowmemo.com, for a well-reasoned rebuttal to the Declaration. 

 

[ORV]

And here I thought I was going to read about The Game Of Thrones. 

[Vertygo]

2 hours ago, ORV said:

And here I thought I was going to read about The Game Of Thrones. 

 

Nope, one of those helpful scientists -an English physician who discovered how Cholera was spread in 19th century London & is considered the father of field epidemiology.