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Great Barrington Declaration, lets get back to Cruising!!


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9 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

There is an approximately 99.5% chance your co-worker would survive corona virus

 

In the UK, less than 400 people of working age have died that did not have underlying health issues, and yet, cancer patients are dying because they were unable to get treatment, suicide rates are sky-rocketing and thousands of jobs are being lost daily

 

People have lost all perspective

 

While the vast majority of COVID-19 cases will survive it does not mean that they will not suffer in the near, middle, and long term. Not does it mean that they will not require medical attention including hospital stays over the course of their suffering.

 

A principal reason for the lack of cancer and other necessary medical care is the simple fact that rapidly growing numbers of COVID-19 patients are consuming more and more medical resources. 

 

My perspective is that a 0.5% death rate translates to more than 1.5 million dead Americans and 335,000 dead Brits. These are number we typically associate with world wars, not controllable infections.

Edited by broberts
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2 hours ago, cruiser52forever said:

I have never posted, but I have to respond to this.  I had (keyword is had) a beautiful loving aunt whom I was very close to.  Closer to her than my own mother.   She lived several states away. My son and I  were scheduled to visit her on spring break this year. We canceled due to covid.  She begged us to come, but i said we had to protect her.  She had two great grandchildren born during this that she only got to see through a window, didn't get to hold them or kiss them.  Guess what....SHE DIED ANYWAYS.   She didn't have covid, but she still died.   We didn't get one last hug, one last kiss, one last smile.  Quarantining did nothing for our family except cause much grief.  If I could do this all over again, you can bet I would have been there for spring break to get my last hug, my last kiss, my last smile.  Covid isn't the only thing people die from.  

I'm sorry for your loss, but to be fair, the statement highlighted may or may not be true.  It could be that quarantining prevented members of your family from catching the virus.  Obviously, you can never know.

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35 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

Sorry for your loss, I think there are many stories like that currently in this terrible time that are forgotten or not acknowledged.   Many die every minute and many extra from COVID and all their deaths are a tragedy.

 

One of the challenges or most difficult things in life is to rationalize when doing the right thing doesn't result in a good result, but those stories abound and good people do usually overcome those challenges,  may your faith, spirit and good character help you thru this difficult time.

 

Since you mention your children, I could ask what role model and story would  you like to tell them when they are older.   1) The very sad ending to their grandmother and the sacrifice you all made?  2) the one you posted above, ignore the rules and sacrifices we were asked to make, because to any one individual it made no difference so if I could do it again ...        The rational of 2) reflect the rampant division going in the US where freedom/liberty and what is important to ME is more important than the larger community, with that line of thinking very easy for society to descent into the chaos we are currently in.  Other countries likely have equally tragic stories but are in a society far better alone, that we should all learn and model from.   

 

Makes me feel you have a very POTUS view of the many futile sacrifices many make in the name and dedication of country...

 

 

 

If we lived in a dense population area, I would have a different opinion.  No way would have i visited if we we were from NYC or if she lived in NYC.  Dense population does make a difference with the spread. 

 

We do not live in a dense population,  she did not live in a dense population. The county where I live has had less than 200 cases and 18 deaths, population around 75,000.  Of those deaths, all but 1 had pre-existing conditions.   The 1 was 110 years old.  My county is being responsible and we have been successful.  Became of these facts, I feel visiting her would have been safe. 

 

We wear our masks, we don't like it, but we do it.  We are being responsible and I teach my child to obey elders, teachers, coaches, people in authority.  He might not like it and can have his OPINION,  but we still obey.  

 

My political beliefs have nothing to do with my feelings about covid and the steps to take to prevent transmission.   Common sense is needed.   Wash your hands,  do your social distancing,  but people need to live their lives, businesses need to operate.  We need to see our loved ones, spend time together.  

 

Didn't someone once say, We have nothing to fear but fear itself?

 

 

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2 hours ago, cruiser52forever said:

If we lived in a dense population area, I would have a different opinion.  No way would have i visited if we we were from NYC or if she lived in NYC.  Dense population does make a difference with the spread. 

 

I agree that areas with a dense population create more of a challenge to control a pandemic.  But what's interesting is that countries with the densest population are the countries that are doing the best job:  Hong Kong 105 total deaths 0 new.  Singapore 28 total deaths 0 new.  Japan 1661 total deaths 11 new.  Taiwan 7 total deaths 0 new.  Even mainland China 4634 total deaths 0 new. 

 

What does make a great difference is leadership that can unite a country instead of dividing it.  Leadership that follows the recommendations of the top heath experts instead of using "herd mentality".  

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On 10/15/2020 at 5:22 PM, nomad098 said:

Every death is a devastating loss to someone.

 

I'm guessing you've never visited a Medicare funded long term care facility.

 

Many residents are long forgotten. It's quite sad. I'm really not trying to be crass, we have failed our seniors in many ways.

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22 hours ago, Lou33 said:

 

Why are so many people are praising Sweden's COVID response?  Just click on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, and click the top column of "deaths/1M population".  The statistic that really matters is how many people die.  USA is 10th worst, but Sweden close at 15th worst.   Scroll way down and see how Japan, New Zealand, Norway, even Germany are doing.  If you want to find a country that is doing something right, why not start there instead?

 

Now click on top of the "new deaths" column.  USA leads the field with 903 new deaths (equivalent to five 737 airliner crashes every day).  Japan has 4.  South Korea has 2.  Canada has 23.  Australia has 0.  Speaking of Australia, the recent super spreader event at the White House resulted in more infections there, than in the entire country of Australia on that particular day.   

 

Until recently, many European countries "had" been doing very well.  But when they start opening the bars and nightclubs again, they are feeding the virus.  

 

 

 

Where is China on that list?

 

#175

 

Right😉

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People who don't have a professional background in epidemiology or medicine, but wish to understand and make cogent comment on issues like covid remediation should take the time to learn about the issues surrounding other similar life or death countermeasures, for example the USPSTF and prostate cancer.

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1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Many residents are long forgotten. It's quite sad. I'm really not trying to be crass, we have failed our seniors in many ways.

Totally agree with you on this one.

 

What's also sad are those who pooh pooh COVID deaths of seniors, almost treating them as disposable.

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1 hour ago, sunskywaves said:

People who don't have a professional background in epidemiology or medicine, but wish to understand and make cogent comment on issues like covid remediation should take the time to learn about the issues surrounding other similar life or death countermeasures, for example the USPSTF and prostate cancer.

Prostate cancer is contagious? 

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1 hour ago, Ourusualbeach said:

Lie and not report their true figures.

 

You should have stopped before including China with your other figures. 

 

Those numbers are from the worldometers website.  Yes, I'm also skeptical of the accuracy of reports from China.  But from news reports about life in China, they seem to have it very much under control at this point.   When their government deals with the virus, all citizens must comply, or else.  I'm not saying that is a good thing, but it helps them control the virus.  

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14 minutes ago, Lou33 said:

 

Those numbers are from the worldometers website.  Yes, I'm also skeptical of the accuracy of reports from China.  But from news reports about life in China, they seem to have it very much under control at this point.   When their government deals with the virus, all citizens must comply, or else.  I'm not saying that is a good thing, but it helps them control the virus.  

 

Are you prepared to weld apartment doors shut

 

FWIW, Worldometers can only compile what is shared

Edited by John&LaLa
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Just now, John&LaLa said:

 

Are you prepared weld apartment doors shut

 

No, I wouldn't want to live there.  But that can explain how they can get things under control.  There are also many free countries that have done quite well

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20 hours ago, Billy Baltic said:


And what would the total number of vulnerable people be?

In Ireland, it’s estimated at 1m people. Around 20% of the population. It’s not possible to put all those in a bubble. They are our work colleagues, our brothers, sisters, children.
 

 

Remarkable lack of personal responsibility being shown on this thread

 

If you know you are obese, but want to live - Take the right precautions - This is a killer virus for those people

 

It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility

 

The world has gone completely mad

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19 hours ago, Bloodgem said:

How long do you expect them to stay indoors shielding?

Also what is the cost to their mental health? People have committed suicide because they could not cope with being alone whilst in lockdown. 

 

 

I don't 'expect' anyone to stay indoors

 

I expect everyone to take the appropriate precautions to protect their own lives, and not expect fit and healthy people to lose theirs to protect them

 

People have committed suicide because they have lost their jobs and homes

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15 hours ago, shutterbug63 said:

This declaration is complete bunk.  A lot of people would have to die. We cannot know if herd  immunity is achievable because no one knows how long immunity to coronavirus lasts.  We also don't know about the long term effects of coronavirus. I'm not willing to take those kind of chances with my life, my family's life, or the life of others in my community.

 

The declaration is written by eminent experts that disagree with those you have chosen to believe in - Their report is far from bunk

 

It is good to know you are taking personal responsibility though, well done. It seems the vast majority expect governments to wash their hands for them

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14 hours ago, chipmaster said:

 

So that means there is a 0.005 chance they will die from it, did you do the math, or are you really that hard? 

 

Currently in the US the official number for those that got COVID was 8 million and official deaths something like 200K so that puts death to case at 2.5%, but we well know that the number of asymptomatic and those that got it and never tested and recovered is likely 2-5x of that.      So your number of 0.5% is probably about right give or take a little , that is a HUGE number.

 

Why don't you take your country's total population and multiply by 0.005 and tell me is that amount of execessive death is an acceptable cost.   For the US population of 330 million that would be 1.65 MILLION DEATHS, I guess not a big cost at all, wow do you have no empathy or appreciation for the value of any life?  

 

Bizarre comment, but I will reply.

 

I can only speak for my country's approach, which has led to cancer treatments being cancelled, people committing suicide because they have lost their jobs. Expert analysis suggesting the deaths because of the restrictions will far outweigh covid deaths. So, I could just as easily say, have you no empathy?

 

In the UK, the published death figures are 43,000. Included are annual flu deaths (average 10,000 annually). Care home deaths accounts for around 20,000 (all people's parents, but all old, infirm, and many, who would have died anyway - Yes, sad, but should these people be saved over 20 year olds?). 17% of deaths have caught the virus in hospital ! 

 

Now, to the most important point. At the start of this, no doctor had a clue how to deal with it. Now, 80% of those that reach as far as ICU, survive. That is remarkable progress

 

This is very fast moving. What the experts know now, they did not know in March. I appreciate locking everything down in March made sense, but with knowledge of the vulnerable and advance of treatment, we should now focus on the fit and healthy and get economies back and running, while protecting all those we can.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, compman9 said:

 

I don't 'expect' anyone to stay indoors

 

I expect everyone to take the appropriate precautions to protect their own lives, and not expect fit and healthy people to lose theirs to protect them

 

People have committed suicide because they have lost their jobs and homes

 

I think you need to reread your post (#93)

 

21 hours ago, compman9 said:

The UK has 5.5million people over 70 - If each had been given £50k to stay indoors, it would have cost less than the debt the country has piled up.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

Remarkable lack of personal responsibility being shown on this thread

 

If you know you are obese, but want to live - Take the right precautions - This is a killer virus for those people

 

It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility

 

The world has gone completely mad


For what it’s worth, I agree that there should be more education around obesity but it’s too late for this epidemic. Hopefully people will be better educated for the next one. 
 

I think you’re conveniently ignoring all the other things that would make someone vulnerable. It’s a long list. 
 

 https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/people-at-higher-risk/whos-at-higher-risk-from-coronavirus/

 

Do you think it’s possible to put all these people in a bubble? 

 

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5 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

The declaration is written by eminent experts that disagree with those you have chosen to believe in - Their report is far from bunk


As I said previously here, get your fellow citizens in the UK to implement this system and when it is successful for you, other countries will follow suit. Arguing about it here on CC is not going to resolve anything. 

Edited by A&L_Ont
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The US population is overcome with the eggarerated fear that everyone who contracts CV19 is going to die.  There's equally the fear that anyone you come in contact with who is not wearing a mask will give you the virus.   These fears are understandable based on the hyped reporting we get. But the reality is different.  Medical treatments are available now vs 6 months ago. The death toll, while serious and sad, is far below the early model projections. 

I think once the vaccine(s) becomes available, coronavirus can be dwelt with just like NoRo and flu.  Perhaps on a cruise ship, extra precautions will need to be in place, but the draconian measures won't be necessary. 

Again, that's not next month but maybe 6 moths to a year down the road.

In the meantime,  people need to get a grip on their fears and start acting with common sense. 

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6 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

I expect everyone to take the appropriate precautions to protect their own lives, and not expect fit and healthy people to lose theirs to protect them

 

Illustrates fundamental misconceptions of COVID-19.

 

A single individual that does not live in total isolation from all other humans all the time cannot avoid exposure. 

 

Very healthy individuals with no pre existing conditions have and can died from COVID-19. Being fit and healthy does not provide protection from contracting the disease.

 

People that consider themselves fit and healthy can unknowingly spread COVID-19.

 

More than 40% of the US population has at least one health factor that may put them at risk should they contract COVID-19.

 

While percentage deaths and hospitalization are low the actual numbers of human beings turn out to be quite large.

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1 hour ago, crewsweeper said:

The death toll, while serious and sad, is far below the early model projections. 

 

Only because the early model projections were based on NO mitigation efforts. Subsequent projections based on social distancing, hand washing and contact minimization were much lower. And even lower still when mask wearing was factored in.

 

What is truly sad is that these lower projections have risen steadily as people ignore or abandon the known effective mitigation practices.

 

I think almost as many U.S. deaths in nine months than in the nearly four years of the second world war is more than serious and beyond sad.

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7 hours ago, compman9 said:

 

Remarkable lack of personal responsibility being shown on this thread

 

If you know you are obese, but want to live - Take the right precautions - This is a killer virus for those people

 

It seems citizens of the world are expecting governments to punish healthy people and wreck economies so that they can absolve themselves of personal responsibility

 

The world has gone completely mad

It seems that you are living proof of that statement.

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Has anyone calculated the death rate (as a % of total infected) for periods of March to May against June through October.

 

Looking at the graphs and stats from WorldoMeter their is a definite difference with a far lower death rate since June.  Sone of this is that we have figured out how to treat Covid with a lot more success, we are testing a lot more and therefore picking up on a lot of milder cases, we are better protecting the vulnerable and there were a few reports that the virus has actually been weakening.

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