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I know cruising in so unsure right now, but when would Spring 2022 TransAtlantic sailing normally be announced?


bluecruisin
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2 hours ago, bluecruisin said:

Thanks for any info!

Probably this month at the latest.  Obviously with a 2021 cruising schedule that will need to be mostly redone, Celebrity hopefully has its attention on figuring out cruises for 2021.

Unless or until we have an effective vaccine with a majority of the population with immunity it will be hard to impossible to schedule cruises.  We know COVID is not going to magically end.  The question is when it will be reduced to a level where cruising makes sense both health wise and economically.  No predictions as to when we get back to "normal".

My DW suggested 2022 would be opened this year but if many of those cruises are later modified does it make sense to create angst for cruisers and tons of extra work for TAs and cruiselines with likely no benefit.

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13 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Probably this month at the latest.  Obviously with a 2021 cruising schedule that will need to be mostly redone, Celebrity hopefully has its attention on figuring out cruises for 2021.

Unless or until we have an effective vaccine with a majority of the population with immunity it will be hard to impossible to schedule cruises.  We know COVID is not going to magically end.  The question is when it will be reduced to a level where cruising makes sense both health wise and economically.  No predictions as to when we get back to "normal".

My DW suggested 2022 would be opened this year but if many of those cruises are later modified does it make sense to create angst for cruisers and tons of extra work for TAs and cruiselines with likely no benefit.

 

I think you're right on all the points.....EXCEPT that cruise lines posting 2022/23 itineraries would result in a VERY much needed influx of cash as cruise hungry passengers put deposits down on sailings.  

 

Supposedly Royal is going to release Europe and Alaska sailings for 2022/23 on November 9th.  I don't know if that is just Royal or if it will include X too.  I don't think TA's release have been mentioned yet.

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On 11/5/2020 at 3:57 PM, Arizona Wildcat said:

Probably this month at the latest.  Obviously with a 2021 cruising schedule that will need to be mostly redone, Celebrity hopefully has its attention on figuring out cruises for 2021.

Unless or until we have an effective vaccine with a majority of the population with immunity it will be hard to impossible to schedule cruises.  We know COVID is not going to magically end.  The question is when it will be reduced to a level where cruising makes sense both health wise and economically.  No predictions as to when we get back to "normal".

My DW suggested 2022 would be opened this year but if many of those cruises are later modified does it make sense to create angst for cruisers and tons of extra work for TAs and cruiselines with likely no benefit.

If shutting down the cruise lines continues into Spring 2022, there probably won't be any current cruise lines surviving.

 

Yes, COVID-19 will be around, vaccine or not, but the fatality rate is extremely low.

 

updated age-specific survival rates: 0-19 years old, 99.997 percent; 20-49 years old, 99.98 percent; 50-69 years, 99.5 percent; and 70 years old or older, 94.6 percent. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

  Also, once we have vaccines, that will significantly reduce the risk for travel and cruising.   Further, the more people that get COVID-19 the closer to herd immunity for the population.  COVID-19 will still be more risky for unvaccinated persons or elderly with co-morbities.

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12 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

Supposedly Royal is going to release Europe and Alaska sailings for 2022/23 on November 9th.  I don't know if that is just Royal or if it will include X too.  I don't think TA's release have been mentioned yet.

I believe it said "the week of November 9th", so don't be worried if it's not on the exact day...

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4 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

If shutting down the cruise lines continues into Spring 2022, there probably won't be any current cruise lines surviving.

 

Yes, COVID-19 will be around, vaccine or not, but the fatality rate is extremely low.

 

updated age-specific survival rates: 0-19 years old, 99.997 percent; 20-49 years old, 99.98 percent; 50-69 years, 99.5 percent; and 70 years old or older, 94.6 percent. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

  Also, once we have vaccines, that will significantly reduce the risk for travel and cruising.   Further, the more people that get COVID-19 the closer to herd immunity for the population.  COVID-19 will still be more risky for unvaccinated persons or elderly with co-morbities.

You neglected to add the approximately 1.5% that survive with permanent health issues caused by COVID.

Here immunity is a great idea by requires over 50% to achieve control.  That would mean another 150 million infections for just the US.

As for the morbidity rate are you willing to roll the dice?  I'm not.  Neither is my 49 year old son or 46 year old niece who now has heart issues after being infected 

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10 hours ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

You neglected to add the approximately 1.5% that survive with permanent health issues caused by COVID.

Here immunity is a great idea by requires over 50% to achieve control.  That would mean another 150 million infections for just the US.

As for the morbidity rate are you willing to roll the dice?  I'm not.  Neither is my 49 year old son or 46 year old niece who now has heart issues after being infected 

Herd immunity is possible with a lower number because 40-60% have immunity:

 

Several studies have shown that people infected with Covid-19 tend to have T cells that can target the virus, regardless of whether they have experienced symptoms. So far, so normal. But scientists have also recently discovered that some people can test negative for antibodies against Covid-19 and positive for T cells that can identify the virus. This has led to suspicions that some level of immunity against the disease might be twice as common as was previously thought.

Most bizarrely of all, when researchers tested blood samples taken years before the pandemic started, they found T cells which were specifically tailored to detect proteins on the surface of Covid-19. This suggests that some people already had a pre-existing degree of resistance against the virus before it ever infected a human. And it appears to be surprisingly prevalent: 40-60% of unexposed individuals had these cells.

 

https://bestlifeonline.com/coronavirus-immunity/

 

I never said that the COVID19 risks are not there, however, the no where near as significant as originally thought.

We live with risk every day, just driving on the highway is risky, with annual deaths of 40K.  Doesn't mean we don't drive.  We just drive safely, don't speed, pass on yellow lines or drive under the influence.  We will take all the COVID-19 precautions and travel, as soon as countries are open and cruises can be taken, likely once a vaccine is available.

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2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Herd immunity is possible with a lower number because 40-60% have immunity:

 

Several studies have shown that people infected with Covid-19 tend to have T cells that can target the virus, regardless of whether they have experienced symptoms. So far, so normal. But scientists have also recently discovered that some people can test negative for antibodies against Covid-19 and positive for T cells that can identify the virus. This has led to suspicions that some level of immunity against the disease might be twice as common as was previously thought.

Most bizarrely of all, when researchers tested blood samples taken years before the pandemic started, they found T cells which were specifically tailored to detect proteins on the surface of Covid-19. This suggests that some people already had a pre-existing degree of resistance against the virus before it ever infected a human. And it appears to be surprisingly prevalent: 40-60% of unexposed individuals had these cells.

 

https://bestlifeonline.com/coronavirus-immunity/

 

I never said that the COVID19 risks are not there, however, the no where near as significant as originally thought.

We live with risk every day, just driving on the highway is risky, with annual deaths of 40K.  Doesn't mean we don't drive.  We just drive safely, don't speed, pass on yellow lines or drive under the influence.  We will take all the COVID-19 precautions and travel, as soon as countries are open and cruises can be taken, likely once a vaccine is available.

Your argument might be more compelling if you were to cite studies that weren't published several months ago. There has been a continuous learning curve with respect to COVID-19, and tentative findings published in June may not stand up to critical examination in November.

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2 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Herd immunity is possible with a lower number because 40-60% have immunity:

 

Several studies have shown that people infected with Covid-19 tend to have T cells that can target the virus, regardless of whether they have experienced symptoms. So far, so normal. But scientists have also recently discovered that some people can test negative for antibodies against Covid-19 and positive for T cells that can identify the virus. This has led to suspicions that some level of immunity against the disease might be twice as common as was previously thought.

Most bizarrely of all, when researchers tested blood samples taken years before the pandemic started, they found T cells which were specifically tailored to detect proteins on the surface of Covid-19. This suggests that some people already had a pre-existing degree of resistance against the virus before it ever infected a human. And it appears to be surprisingly prevalent: 40-60% of unexposed individuals had these cells.

 

https://bestlifeonline.com/coronavirus-immunity/

 

Actually not so bizarre.  The three groups with T-Cells were: 1) exposed to SARS-SoV-2 (COVID), 2) previously exposed to SARS (or even MERS?), and 3) people with cross-reactive T-Cells to a whole lot of other coronaviruses that we have all come into contact with over our lifetime (part of the cold viruses).  The factors 2) and mostly 3) are likely are giving us humans some of the known pre-existing T-Cell protection against the COVID version of the virus.  As high as 40% of us are asymptomatic.  And throw in the fact that certain other viruses and their vaccines (particularly MMR) have T-Cell epitopes that are shared with the coronaviruses.  There is a very large clinical study looking at this right now with MMR.

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1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Actually not so bizarre.  The three groups with T-Cells were: 1) exposed to SARS-SoV-2 (COVID), 2) previously exposed to SARS (or even MERS?), and 3) people with cross-reactive T-Cells to a whole lot of other coronaviruses that we have all come into contact with over our lifetime (part of the cold viruses).  The factors 2) and mostly 3) are likely are giving us humans some of the known pre-existing T-Cell protection against the COVID version of the virus.  As high as 40% of us are asymptomatic.  And throw in the fact that certain other viruses and their vaccines (particularly MMR) have T-Cell epitopes that are shared with the coronaviruses.  There is a very large clinical study looking at this right now with MMR.

Rick - I heard about the MMR study.  It certainly has promise.  We have made tremendous progress in learning how to better treat COVID patients.  What is sad is too many are using data from spring or summer.  Morbidity is down significantly mostly because the average age of those infected has dropped from over 60 in March to 49 in May and about 35 in September in Phoenix AZ.  I cannot find October data - sorry.  What has changed is we have learned there are a significant number of patients with various organ damage caused by COVID.  The Mayo Clinic reported we are learning about more and more "recovered" patients that have been permanently impaired.  It is also Valley Fever season in Arizona.  In other years most people recover with few symptoms and no long term effects.  This year the combo of VF and COVID is showing several hundreds of younger patients with lung damage.

Am sure you can comment more professionally.

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I believe that there has to be a balance between the risk of any disease, including COVID-19 and the damage done by imposing harsh restrictions across the board.   I read recently one estimate that the shutdowns this year have resulted in increased suicide, drug overdoses and other factors leading to 100,000 more deaths than would normally have occurred.  Further, the economic damages have far reaching impacts.   I know someone that had to postpone surgery for a serious medical issue for months because of COVID-19.  Some people had had cancer treatments interrupted.

 

Some people are more willing to risk than others.   My barber is over 80 and has only one lung.   He is still working.  I asked him why he was working, since he was more at risk to the disease.  He said, what am I supposed to do, stay home and die.   He wants to live his life and is willing to take the risk.

 

We have friends, that we have cruised with twice that live in Melbourne, Australia.  They have been subject to severe restrictions.  They were confined to their home for months (couldn't travel more than 5KM from their home). 

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On 11/6/2020 at 4:22 AM, sandancer said:

There must be many people, like us, anxiously awaiting the 2022 transatlantic itineraries so that we can try and lift and shift our 2021 cruise. This has to be done by the end of November when L&S ends unless it is extended. 

with the current cruising status, one really has to believe the L&S will and should be extended.

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