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Vaccination Certification?


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53 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

 The people wanting vaccines mandated are the older vulnerable people who are at significant risk.   This limited demographic is a constant, they will be vaccinated and they will cruise simply as.   There's no point either logically or in business terms to alienate the other demographic of people who are not at risk from Covid and who will all be rigorously tested for Covid before they step on-board.

 

How do you define old and vulnerable?  The Baby Boomers?  If that's the case, in 2019, Boomers made up 21.19% of the US population, and Millennials were slightly more at 22%.  Not a "limited" demographic, and Boomers have the time and money to travel and cruise.  

 

How are the cruise lines going to rigorously test everyone who hasn't been vaccinated?  

 

My concern with a good segment of the cruising population not being vaccinated is an outbreak onboard, causing the cruise to be terminated and/or the ship being quarantined.  Not to mention the onboard experience being altered in order to contain the outbreak.

 

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That last para of Roz sums it up imo. The CDC have already stipulated the points she made about a Covid guest onboard. If the incidence of this can be brought to a minimum by stipulating all passengers to be vaccinated -then it gets my thumbs-up. 

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1 hour ago, KnowTheScore said:

It won't happen.  Port Authorities will not be interested in who is and who is not vaccinated.  It's a meaningless piece of information. 

 

So my experience of presenting crew vaccination records to port authorities for inspection, in a number of ports, is only a figment of my imagination.🙁

 

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2 hours ago, clo said:

You know, don't you, that there's a "report" feature? Heavens knows, it's been used on me 🙂

 

I didn't see it as a reportable offence. I just found it hypocritical to accuse me of shutting down debate when I am discussing the topic at hand and the poster is completely deviating from the topic rather than engaging with my points. Clearly from the posts since they are still under the delusion their position on vaccines is the majority and that cruise line will care about losing this small minority as customers🙄

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37 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

How do you define old and vulnerable?  The Baby Boomers? 

 

 

The health services and governments have aleady very clearly defined who the vulnerable are and how they are categorised.  There's no point me cutting and pasting the definition here, you can Google it for yourself.   They are most certainly not a majority of the population.

 

 

37 minutes ago, Roz said:

How are the cruise lines going to rigorously test everyone who hasn't been vaccinated?  

 

The same as everyone else.  Repeated swab tests and whatever other tests are deemed appropriate.  I would envisage that testing procedures will get slicker and quicker in the future.

Either way, vaccinated or not you will still get tested because vaccination has not been proven to prevent spread by the vacinee.

 

 

37 minutes ago, Roz said:

My concern with a good segment of the cruising population not being vaccinated is an outbreak onboard, causing the cruise to be terminated and/or the ship being quarantined.  Not to mention the onboard experience being altered in order to contain the outbreak.

 

 

It's a concern I share and like 1000s of other cruisers I am concerned about the protocols the cruise lines are being forced to follow.  Enough so that until they change them I am unlikely to cruise.  We don't stop cruises for outbreaks of Flu, nor for SMALL outbreaks of Norovirus.  If things get very out of hand yes those viruses can see a ship quarantined and refused entry at ports. 

 

You have this notion that being vaccinated makes you immune from both:

 

a)  Being able to be Covid-positive and

b)  Being able to carry and spread Covid to others

 

I don't believe either assumptions to be true and unless and until they are proven health authorities, cruise lines, ports and other bodies will likewise not make those assumptions.

 

Your concerns regarding outbreaks on the ship can only be mitigated by:

 

1)  Properly testing everyone to ensure that no-one is Covid positive.

If everyone is negative then it doesn't matter one iota who is and who is not vaccinated

You can not be at risk from a Covid negative person

 

2) By the cruise line following good protocol to immediately isolate any positive person and anyone they have been in close contact with whether they have been vaccinated or not

 

This is what cruise lines and the CDC have been working on for months.  They have agreed a set of protocols and rules on how they manage testing and any positive cases on-board. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Heidi13 said:

 

So my experience of presenting crew vaccination records to port authorities for inspection, in a number of ports, is only a figment of my imagination.🙁

 

There you go trying to confuse him with the facts 🙂 

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9 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

... They will happily take a vaccine if it means they can get back to a lifestyle they are accustomed to while also mitigating their very real fears.

 

You just have to look at IATA which is very publicly pushing the concept of some form of vaccine passports. They are certainly are not quaking in their boots that their stance might lose customers who fear vaccines...

Your first point summarizes my view on vaccination as it relates to COVID although I would have stated mitigating most risks rather than fear.  Full disclosure - I also get an annual flu vaccination

 

I think what has the travel industry quaking is the inability to conduct business at a meaningful level mixed in with an attempt to minimize the threat of litigation from someone over COVID.   Perhaps I am wrong on this front as someone you lives in an extremely litigious society/state/country. 

 

6 hours ago, KnowTheScore said:

...  Whatever rules they agree on will apply to all cruises.   If those rules mandate vaccinations then they will lose a significant degree of custom.   Business suicide.   

 

No it's just an indicator of the mentality of some cruisers.  They will spend £1000s on a cruise ticket but will then keep putting their daily biscuits in their suitcases so the steward replaces them each day and will then take them home with them.  Yet the quantity they have could be bought for £2-£3 in their local supermarket when they get back.  Go figure !   It's a penny pinching "I'm going to get my money's worth" mentality that doesn't lend itself to good on-board revenues for cruise lines imo.

 

I think we disagree on the number of passengers who will be lost if vaccinations are required.  I also think you need to consider the simplification of logistics and reduction in possible virus outbreaks if the cruise lines mandate vaccinations.  I am sure they figure that the lost revenue will be made up in savings through reduced COVID disruptions.

 

A lot of the cruise ship appeal is based on the appeal of buffets.  It just seems all priced into the line's plans.  I am sure the line's revenue models can predict by cabin number, demographics and passenger history how much you are going to spend onboard. 

 

2 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

...  Can certainly imagine them requiring tourist vaccination.  

I agree, it just helps ports lower the probability that a cruise ship will cause a problem.

 

2 hours ago, Roz said:

 

How do you define old and vulnerable?    Not a "limited" demographic, and Boomers have the time and money to travel and cruise.  

 

My concern with a good segment of the cruising population not being vaccinated is an outbreak onboard, causing the cruise to be terminated and/or the ship being quarantined.  Not to mention the onboard experience being altered in order to contain the outbreak.

 

 

The graphic below suggests your statement regarding Boomers is correct from a money perspective.  You are likely correct on the time perspective as well as more and more Boomers are now retired.  The one thing you didn't mention is health.  Some modicum of health is also necessary for travel.

 

Cruise lines don't want you stuck on a ship either.  That's why the vaccination would help minimize any spreads and get people off the ship and back home faster.

 

wealth by generation

https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-less-wealth-net-worth-compared-to-boomers-2019-12

 

 

Edited by SelectSys
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2 hours ago, Heidi13 said:

 

So my experience of presenting crew vaccination records to port authorities for inspection, in a number of ports, is only a figment of my imagination.🙁

 

Facts, please don't confuse someone who knows everything with actual facts based on experience.

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This could be posted on many of the boards but we have more Carnival under our dive belt than any other.  I'm thinking that a thought-out restart should include either a vaccination certificate, proof that you've had the virus, or testing prior to embarkation.  No mask required, cruise at your own risk.  We need to quit with the fear mongering and managing to the lowest common denominator.  

 

On a different note, there has been some noise about the US providing vaccines to foreign countries prior to everybody in the US getting it.  Not a fan, but then I thought about it reading these boards.  Small businesses and the working poor have suffered the most.  So have small countries.  I would be ok with the US providing vaccines to the smaller Caribbean countries - St. Lucia, Grenadines, etc.  It would provide both cruisers and cruise destinations with FREEDOM and peace of mind.

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8 hours ago, clo said:

But that doesn't mean you're immune.

Only time will tell - vaccine or previous health history.  LOCK UP OR WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!  Science says those who had SARS 1 are still immune 17 years later.  Science says those who are immune to SARS 1 are immune to SARS 2.  Science says SARS 1, MERS, and SARS 2 are very closely related.  Tippyton didn't take Kommon Kore math and, through deductive reasoning and paying attention to multiple experts thinks that immunity will last.  You can't tell me with a straight face that natural immunity borne out of having the virus is less efficacious than a man-made vaccine?  Really?

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29 minutes ago, Tippyton said:

Only time will tell - vaccine or previous health history.  LOCK UP OR WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!  Science says those who had SARS 1 are still immune 17 years later.  Science says those who are immune to SARS 1 are immune to SARS 2.  Science says SARS 1, MERS, and SARS 2 are very closely related.  Tippyton didn't take Kommon Kore math and, through deductive reasoning and paying attention to multiple experts thinks that immunity will last.  You can't tell me with a straight face that natural immunity borne out of having the virus is less efficacious than a man-made vaccine?  Really?

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

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On 12/1/2020 at 3:41 PM, KnowTheScore said:

 

Nothing you have stated in that spiel negates or refutes the FACT that people who are vaccinated CAN and DO still spread viruses and disease.

 

And that's all we really need to know.

 

Whether you personally think they will only spread COVID a little bit is really academic.  If they CAN do it they WILL do it and that clearly poses a public health hazard to others.

 

Consequently I cannot envisage any situation where a person waving a worthless vaccination certificate can be treated any different from anyone else.  The results could be catastrophic and more importantly for businesses could lead to enormous costly libel cases.

 

Just imagine.

 

Cruise line allows a vaccinated person to waltz on board without getting tested prior to embarkation.  Person turns out to be Covid positive.     Unthinkable.

 

It's just not going to happen.

 

Vaccinated or not we will ALL still represent a risk and so the only sure fire way of controlling things is to properly test people using good reliable testing processes (and those need greatly improving)

 

So those ranting and raving about people who are going to refuse the vaccines need to get a dose of reality imo.   No vaccine is 100% effective so even a percentage of the vaccinated people will be unprotected.   That person you are sat next to in the bar might still represent a risk to you.  The only way to tell is to properly test people before and during every cruise and it doesn't matter whether people are vaccinated or not to do that.

 

We respectfully disagree with much of what you posted.  Regarding testing, no test is accurate for several days after exposure so even the best testing will not completely prevent COVID cases from getting aboard....especially since folks have a higher chance of exposure during travel to a port.  The fast antigen tests that can be done at the port have at least a 20% false negative problem and it is actually much higher since nobody will test positive for 3-6 days after exposure.  PCR tests take many hours or days for results and also will not detect recently (2-5 days) exposed folks.  This is likely what caused many COVID cases (over 160) on the limited European cruises where strict testing measures were utilized.

 

As to vaccines, early reports are that several vaccines are 90%+ effective.  This is rare among vaccines and is actually very exciting news.  Both Pfizer and Moderna (using the new mRNA technique in their vaccine) have reported zero deaths among their test subjects.  Mandating vaccinations for cruisers will almost certainly be part of future CDC Guidelines.  But cruise lines would mandate vaccinations on their own because it is the best way to reduce their own financial risk from COVID cases aboard (which would likely require stopping the cruise and involve expensive delays, quarantines, etc).   

 

As to your comment about a percentage of vaccinated being unprotected, while that is certainly possible when you get above approximate 80% effective rates you also get benefits of so-called herd immunity.   With vaccines over 90% effective and mandated vaccinations for all aboard that herd immunity becomes a near certainty.  The one caveat is that it takes about 1 month after vaccination for a person to reach a high level of immunity so we may not only see mandates but those mandates may require proof of vaccination several weeks before a cruise.  Providing instant vaccination at the port would not be a viable approach.

 

Hank

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52 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

Demonstrated facts and "could" are different.  Science says that Covid2 has mutated already and science says the current immunity schemas are unaffected by these mutations. In probability and statistics, the "could" outcomes are essentially infinite.  Unfortunately our public policy is based on "could" which makes it ridiculous which is also why people are pissed about it.  

Source:  Am scientist 

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1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Science says COVID could mutate and previous infection (and vaccination) would not necessarily confer immunity. Another round would be required, e.g., influenza.

 

 

Yep this is a key point and is why any certification is pointless.   Do we seriously think that logistically they will be able to cope with vaccinating the entire population EVERY YEAR and have reliable IT systems in place to dutifully track who has had which vaccines and when?

 

We already know that the effectiveness of Flu vaccines peters off extremely quickly.   See here:

 

How long do vaccines last? The surprising answers

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/how-long-do-vaccines-last-surprising-answers-may-help-protect-people-longer

 

Flu-Vaccine-Drop-Off.png

 

So what if Covid vaccines turn out to be similarly short lived?  Those who got vaccinated early could be unprotected by the time they cruise.   You would have to have cruise lines insisting that people had gotten their Covid shots within say 1-2 months of their cruise and how is that possibly going to work?   You'd get bottlenecks of people all refusing to be vaccinated until just a month before their cruises.

 

The bottom line remains though which is simply that until proven otherwise, the vaccines don't guarantee that you can't be Covid positive or that you can't still carry and spread Covid.   While ever that is the case then EVERYBODY is going to get tested for Covid before boarding and throughout the trips simple as, no exceptions for vaccinees.

 

The vaccines will hopefully stop the individual from getting serious Covid symptoms and dying, that is their main purpose.  It will protect those most vulnerable.   But that doesn't help cruise lines very much.   They have to be concerned about how many ACTUAL cases there are on-board and it really doesn't matter whether the Covid-positive people are asymptomatic or just have the sniffles or not. 

 

Covid-positive is Covid-positive, end of.

 

So for me personally vaccinations are not going to change that situation.  You're still going to be tested, you're still going to be isolated if you become Covid-positive and the cruise voyage will still terminate if the number of cases on-board reaches a given threshold.

 

Remember no-one has any kind of magic forcefield around them that stop viruses getting to them.  You can not stop coming into contact with viruses.  What you can do is exercise good hygiene to ensure that viruses don't get to your nose and mouth, wash hands regularly and thoroughly, keep them away from your face and so on.  If viruses are airborne then there's little you can do.  What matters then is how strong your immune system is.  The weak and vulnerable can get vaccinated to protected them when they DO come into contact with Covid.  Those who have already got levels of natural immunity will likely have no serious issues at all.   Either way, any person can still test Covid-positive.

 

How do people think the vaccine trials identified who had Covid and who did not?

 

Edited by KnowTheScore
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13 hours ago, Tippyton said:

 I would be ok with the US providing vaccines to the smaller Caribbean countries - St. Lucia, Grenadines, etc.  It would provide both cruisers and cruise destinations with FREEDOM and peace of mind.

 

Hmmm, when it comes to distribution of a vaccine, I think "cruising" should be at the bottom of the priority list.  

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